Precios del Petróleo, la OPEP y los Mercados

Transcription

1 Precios del Petróleo, la OPEP y los Mercados Javier Díaz Manager, Energy Analysis & Consulting S&P Global Platts August 23, 2017 X Feria y Congreso International BOLIVIA GAS & ENERGIA 2017

2 Key Themes in the Global Energy Markets - As US shale production and investment continues to grow, OPEC cuts are unlikely to meet objectives until year-end Short-term demand has rebounded, contributing to an increasingly less oversupplied crude and product market. - Global bunker spec change to 0.5% S in 2020 is a game changer - Long-term demand growth is expected to continue to increase, driven in by petrochemical demand. Electric vehicle growth poses some risk to demand, but penetration is expected to be gradual. - The US is the primary source of incremental supply. Continued shale growth in the long-term is needed to continue to meet global demand, but any downside risk to US supply could buoy global prices. 2

3 Short-term outlook: OPEC, US Shale, and Gasoline

4 What are OPEC s Objectives? Reduce Inventory- stocks below five year average requires 300 million barrel stock decline in first half 2017 Higher Prices- Objective $60/Bbl Brent Renew OPEC/Non-OPEC cuts after 6 months? Source: S&P Global Platts PIRA 4

5 Million barrels OPEC inventory objectives not expected to be met until 2018 due to persistent oversupply Total OECD Stocks and Forecast PIRA Forecast Million Barrels OPEC Inventory Objective Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Max Range ( ) PIRA 2017 Source: S&P Global Platts PIRA 5

6 OPEC Country Crude Production MMB/D v v 17 Algeria Angola Ecuador Gabon Indonesia Iran Iraq Kuwait Libya Nigeria Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE Venezuela Total OPEC

7 % of Production IRR IRR and production mix 100% 90% 80% 70% 30% 25% 20% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% July 2017 Price Assumptions: $46.03/barrel) Oil% Gas% NGL% IRR Gas=12 month forward average curve for each regional pricing point (range $ $3.11/Mcf) Oil=12 month forward average WTI +/- differential (range $ NGLs=weighted average $/barrel, 12-mo forward average Mt. Belvieu

8 US shale production continues to grow on low breakeven levels for new wells US Shale Breakeven Prices at Wellhead Source: S&P Global Platts PIRA 8

9 WTI ($/bbl) # of active rigs US rig activity, spare capacity increasing, US producers invest billions despite low prices $120 $100 0 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 US Spare Capacity: Drilled-but-Uncompleted Wells WTI Prices and Active Rig Count WTI Active Rigs Source: S&P Global Platts PIRA 9

10 US RIG COUNTS: 12 Month Change 2/+1 53/+ 29 0/+0 15/+10 9/+4 13/+12 33/+20 9/+5 27/+14 3/-1 2/+1 24/+15 21/ /+14 11/+6 4/+3 0/+0 130/+66 9/+6 2/+2 1/-1 386/ /-1 20/+9 46/+34 25/+13 5/-1 7/+4 TOTAL 1018 Rig Increases Dry Gas Focused Areas Rig Increases Liquids-Rich/Oil Focused Areas 81/+45 36/-14 CHANGE +550 Rig Declines Source: S&P Global, Platts Analytics, July 2017 Active rig count: July 7, 2017 / Change in rig count from July 1, 2016

11 MMb/d US production expected to rebound and reach record highs by year-end, ramp in ,0 US Crude Production Forecast 10,5 10,0 9,5 Previous production record 9,0 8,5 8,0 Crude Oil Crude Oil - Forecast Source: S&P Global Platts PIRA 11

12 Oil MB/D Year-on-Year Change Non-OPEC Supply Growth OPEC NGL/Cond. Other China Other Western Europe North Sea FSU Mexico Canada United States

13 MB/D Year-on-Year Changes World Oil Demand Growth (0.3) (0.6) Ind. Atl. Basin Japan/ANZ Asia S. America Africa/Middle East FSU/E. Eur

14 Millon barrels, end month Surplus expected to dwindle, return to normal by year-end 2018, another year of oversupply Global Commercial Stock Surplus, Forecast Source: S&P Global Platts PIRA 14

15 $/bbl Low crude prices to persist as US supply grows, prices increase slightly on growing demand $70 $65 $60 $55 $50 $45 $40 $35 $30 Global Crude Price History and Forecast 2018 Avg: Dec 2017: $50.77/bbl $47.45/bbl Dec 2018: $52.55/bbl WTI Dated Brent Source: S&P Global Platts PIRA 15

16 Crude Balances Shifting from Atlantic Basin Pull to Push to Asia MMB/D Atlantic Basin* Crude Balance Implications of A/B length: A/B crude weaker vs. Asia 40 Length Narrower Brent-Dubai Crude Short Crude Production* Refinery Runs Helps A/B refining margins Harder to arb product from Asia to West due refinery crude cost advantage in West * Atlantic Basin includes U.S., Canada, Latin America, Europe, and Africa; Crude includes FSU supply to West

17 $/bbl $/bbl $/bbl Refining Margins Incentivizing Crude Consumption and Product Production $20 USGC Crack Margins - LLS $14 Rotterdam Crack Margins - Forties $9 Singapore Crack Margins - Dubai $18 $16 $14 $12 $10 $12 $10 $8 $8 $7 $6 $5 $8 $6 $4 $6 $4 $3 $4 $2 $2 $2 $1 $0 $0 $0 Source: S&P Global Platts PIRA 17

18 MB/D Year-on-Year Changes Global demand helping to balance the market, demand expected to rebound in Global Demand Growth (Y-o-Y) by Product Type Gasoline/Naphtha Jet/Diesel/Gasoil Fuel Oil Other Products 1,320 1,780 1,840 1, ,285 1,035 1, Source: S&P Global Platts PIRA 18

19 United States a Growing Product Exporter European Runs Decline MMB/D United States Demand Runs MMB/D Western Europe Product Short Product Length *Demand excludes biofuels, ethane, LPG, by-products

20 Product Import Requirements Remain Substantial Into Latin America and Africa MMB/D 8,0 Latin America Demand MMB/D 4,5 Africa 7,5 Runs 4,0 7,0 3,5 6,5 Product Short 3,0 Product Short 6,0 Product Length 2,5 5,5 2,0 5,0 1,5 *Demand excludes biofuels, ethane, LPG, by-products

21 Globlal Bunker Spec Change A Game Changer for Refining and for Bolivia

22 Bunker Fuel Spec Changes Will Force Shift from Residual Fuels to Distillates/Blends Global Bunker Demand, MMB/D 7 6 LNG Distillates High Sulfur (~3%) Residual Fuel Oil Dist for Blending LS HFO 0.5% S Blend Assumes global shift implemented in 2020 with minimal cheating/lags Source: S&P Global Platts PIRA

23 Middle Distillate Fuel Oil Price Spreads Restrained Until Approach 2020, Then Much Wider Gasoil- HS Fuel Oil, $/Bbl USG NWE Singapore Bunker Specs Shift Demand

24 Refineries not investing in refinery complexity, reduces ability to create low-sulfur fuel oil YOY Change, MB/D Global Refinery Conversion Capacity* Growth HCU FCC Coking *Net of refinery closures; reflects startup delays Source: PIRA, a part of S&P Global Platts 24

25 $/bbl Most Complex Refineries can Yield Higher Returns with more Infrastructure from Heavy Crudes USG LLS Cracking SING DUBAI Cracking USG Maya Coking Sing Bas Hvy Coking Global Refinery Margins Coking refineries running heavy crude Medium conversion (cracking) refineries Deep Conversion Margins Will Respond to Bunker Spec Change Effects Source: PIRA, a part of S&P Global Platts 25

26 Light-heavy Crude Price Differentials Will Widen With Wider Clean-Dirty Product Spreads 0 $/Bbl Urals (CIF Med) vs. Brent -5 Mars (30 API) vs. LLS -10 Maya (22 API) vs. LLS Canadian Heavy (22 API) vs. Can. Lt. Sweet Source: PIRA, a part of S&P Global Platts 26

27 Global Bunker Spec Change Implications for Operations and Price Global bunker spec change a major challenge» IMO selected 2020 implementation date» Much harder to balance product S-D in 2020 than in 2025 Product pricing and refining margins will be greatly affected» Diesel stronger» HSFO weaker» LSFO stronger relative to HSFO» LS VGO stronger» LS HS crude differentials wider (sour medium-heavy especially hurt)» Coking refinery margins boosted, sour refinery visbreaking margins hurt All Inter-regional spreads wider due higher freight costs Middle East and East Asia bunkering centers short LS molecules

28 Changing Demand Dynamics

29 MBOE/day Primary Energy Demand Growth Slowing, Renewables Leading Annual Growth Oil 1.5% 1.0% Gas 2.5% 2.1% Coal 2.5% -0.9% Hydro 2.3% 0.7% Nuclear 0.5% 1.5% Renewables 5.9% 4.8% Total 2.1% 5% 1.1% 26% 12% 16% Oil Gas Coal Hydro Nuclear Renewables Source: S&P Global Platts PIRA

30 Annual Growth (MMb/d) Long-term demand for oil to shift to petrochemicals 1,0 Oil Demand Growth by End-Use Sector 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0,0 (0,2) (0,4) Stationary Transport - Road Transport - Air Non-Energy Oil Demand Growth Increasingly Dominated by Non-Energy Use Source: S&P Global Platts PIRA 30

31 MMBD/YR Road Transport Fuels Growth Slows Sharply 1 Growth by Oil Product 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0-0,2-0,4 Distillate Motor Gasoline Jet Fuel Kerosene LPG + Ethane Residual Fuel All Other

32 Policy and technology driving long-term electric vehicle trends Address: Pollution, Safety, Congestion Instruments: Targets, mandates, subsidies, special power rates, tax policy, etc. Market Fundamentals Market Price signals: gasoline, electricity prices, environmental markets, consumer preferences, power market value Policy / Regulations Technology Source: S&P Global Platts PIRA Batteries, Charging Stations, Progress on ICE, Hybrids GPS, Smartphones

33 Conservative base-case EV penetration assumptions lead to persistent oil demand 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Electric Vehicles Percent of Miles Travelled 0% U.S. W. Europe China India World 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Electric Vehicles Percent of New Car Sales 0% U.S. W. Europe China India World Source: S&P Global Platts PIRA 33

34 Mb/d (year-on-year change) Asia expected to drive future demand growth, risk to demand lies in economic growth 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0 (0,5) (1,0) World Oil Demand Growth Ind. Atl. Basin Japan/ANZ Asia S. America Africa/Middle East FSU/E. Eur. Source: S&P Global Platts PIRA 34

35 Supply Growth Driven by US Shale

36 MMb/d MMb/d Shale production, both in the US and globally, driving incremental crude supply World Oil Supply 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1,0 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0,0-0,2-0,4 Annual Supply Growth by Type Shale Crude Non-Shale Crude NGL Non-Conventional Refinery Gain Shale Crude NGL Non-Shale Crude Refinery Gain Non-Conventional Source: S&P Global Platts PIRA 36

37 Mmboe/d MMb/d US expected to export most incremental hydrocarbon growth, impacting global markets 1,2 1,0 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0,0 US Crude Exports by Destination 10,0 9,0 8,0 7,0 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 US Net Energy Exports Change from 2011 Canada South America Korea/Japan/China Europe Other Asia/Africa 0,0 Natural Gas NGLs Crude Oil Source: S&P Global Platts PIRA, EIA 37

38 MMb/d MMb/d US production to grow quickly in short-term, growth to dwindle in the long term US Shale Liquids Production Shale NGL Other Bakken Eagle Ford Permian 1,6 1,4 1,2 1,0 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0,0 (0,2) (0,4) (0,6) Annual Growth - US Shale Liquids Shale NGLs Other Bakken Eagle Ford Permian Permian Source: S&P Global Platts PIRA 38

39 USD (billions) Financial markets, access to capital pose biggest risk to US production growth $35,0 $30,0 $25,0 Net Capital Inflows $20,0 $15,0 $10,0 $5,0 $0,0 -$5,0 -$10,0 Net Debt Issuance Common Stock Issuance Source: S&P Global Platts PIRA, CapIQ 39

40 MMb/d ~ 1MMb/d per year of incremental crude supply needed to meet global demand 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 Supply Volumes Required to Meet Global Demand Uncommitted Volumes Outside U.S. Shale: China, Australia, Mexico Canadian Oil Sands Outside US shale: Canada, Argentina, Russia North Sea Offshore Canada,Alaska, other U.S. GOM Brazil Caspian, China, other 0,0 Russia U.S. shale Source: S&P Global Platts PIRA 40

41 $/Bbl Global production more economic, higher crude prices are needed for supply outside the US Mandated Fuels, NGL 2014 Brent Equivalent Development Cost ($/Bbl) 2015 Brent Equivalent Development Cost ($/Bbl) 2016 Brent Equivalent Development Cost ($/Bbl) <$ 35/Bbl Middle East,Russia $35-50/Bbl Far East,Brazil, Mexico, Nigeria, E. Ford/ Permian $50-65/Bbl N. Sea, Angola, GOM, Bakken $65-80/Bbl Canadian oil sands >$80/Bbl U.S. stripper wells Global Liquids Supply, MMB/D Source: S&P Global Platts PIRA 41

42 Prices

43 $/bbl Weak economic growth, OPEC and shale grows beyond expectations lead to falling crude prices $150 $100 $50 $0 Crude Price Forecast with Low Price Scenario Brent (Ref) Brent(Low) Weaker demand growth due to weak economy and/or price, policy, technology Greater-than-anticipated growth in non-opec supply, particularly shale OPEC capacity growth (including Iraq) approaching.5 to 1 MMB/D/year Technology improvement pushes breakeven costs down Ineffective OPEC Source: S&P Global Platts PIRA 43

44 $/bbl OPEC disruptions and under-investment, shale disappoints poses upside to crude prices $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 Crude Price Forecast with High Price Scenario Brent (Ref) Brent (High) OPEC capacity growth limited due to disruptions, under-investment Regulatory limits on shale, non-conventional rate of growth Price must move high enough to ration demand to available supply Source: S&P Global Platts PIRA 44

45 Muchas Gracias! Javier Díaz Manager, Energy Analysis & Consulting Direct: +1 (720)