SACAFMA 24 JULY 2009 ESKOM PRESENTATION

Transcription

1 SACAFMA 24 JULY 2009 ESKOM PRESENTATION BY KOOS JORDAAN 1

2 CONTENTS RECOVERY PLAN SUPPLY AND DEMAND COAL QUALITIES/ LOAD LOSSES ENVIRONMENTAL COST REDUCTION 2

3 STATE OF THE POWER SYSTEM: COAL SUPPLY TREND JAN 08 TO JAN 09 -Average coal stockpile levels are at 38.7 days with every power station having stockpile levels above 20 days -Stations vulnerable to rain have stockpiles of about 5 days of coarse coal treated with chemicals to resist moisture ingress days Coal Stock Days Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-09 3 Week

4 CURRENT STATUS: STOCK DAYS Stock Day A r n o t M a t i m b a D u v h a M a j u b a H e n d r i n a L e t h a b o K e n d a l T u t u k a M a t l a K r i e l C a m d e n G r o o t v l e i K o m a t i T o t a l 14 - J u n J u n J u n J u l A u g M a r

5 STOCK DAY LEVELS Days Arnot Matimba Duvha Majuba Hendrin a Lethabo Kendal Tutuka Matla Kriel Camden Grootvlei Komati TOTAL Max Expected Alarm Min %of min Jun

6 CONTENTS RECOVERY PLAN SUPPLY AND DEMAND COAL QUALITIES/ LOAD LOSSES ENVIRONMENTAL COST REDUCTION 6

7 Actual Demand (Energy) Week: 25 Calendar Year System Energy (MWh) In% Diff with Base Year: 2008 Week W-W Y-Y YTD Energy Week: 25 Calendar Year System Energy (MWh) Including IOS 1 4,072,147 4,182,748 4,297,366 3,603, % % Not Supplied 2 4,256,171 4,540,734 4,625,262 4,108, % % ,397,665 4,620,125 4,800,263 4,249,144 Rev1 - Unconstrained Fc 18M - Constrained Fc % % ,425,580 4,663,587 4,623,876 4,274, % % Current Operational Fc Rev1 - Unconstrained Fc Estimate Energy Including IOS ,427,409 4,666,491 4,491,704 4,282, % % Actual NSO Actual NSO + IOS ,487,826 4,681,717 4,640,413 4,323, % -9.60% Y-1 [08-09] Energy Include IOS Y-2 [07-08] Energy Include IOS ,489,630 4,646,625 4,594,899 4,308, % -9.12% Y-3 [06-07] Energy Include IOS Y-4 [05-06] Energy Include IOS ,469,930 4,735,505 4,631,085 4,289, % -8.89% ,268,119 4,700,449 4,578,566 4,263, % -8.67% ,433,941 4,645,497 4,637,547 4,308, % -8.51% 5,800, ,424,100 4,698,097 4,613,066 4,372, % -8.21% 5,600, ,361,337 4,641,328 4,466,605 4,307, % -7.83% 2.4 5,400, ,393,615 4,684,880 4,460,137 4,363, % -7.41% ,426,556 4,461,357 4,593,748 4,380, % -7.21% 5,200, ,241,138 4,529,656 4,575,200 4,185, % -7.30% 5,000, ,359,125 4,635,021 4,588,563 4,253, % -7.30% 0.0 4,800, ,383,173 4,558,284 4,641,356 4,318, % -7.28% ,461,240 4,567,165 4,367,121 4,241, % -7.04% 4,600, ,629,474 4,713,397 4,639,428 4,423, % -6.92% 4,400, ,646,654 4,793,063 4,656,344 4,572, % -6.65% 0.0 4,200, ,847,050 5,089,588 4,724,999 4,634, % -6.42% ,731,606 4,971,150 4,820,232 4,657, % -6.28% 4,000, ,736,808 5,034,161 4,858,965 4,749, % -6.09% 3,800, ,678,030 4,963,031 4,879,310 4,843, % -5.86% 25 4,765,097 4,963,685 4,830,668 4,627, % -5.79% 3,600, ,889,579 5,053,126 4,861, ,400, ,783,938 5,093,253 4,895, ,798,406 5,046,820 4,997, ,769,160 4,938,439 5,017, ,697,472 4,949,171 4,945,091 0 Source: SO&P - STLF 31 4,823,873 4,930,530 4,899, /10 Financial Year-to-date Growth =-3.5% 32 4,599,652 4,914,003 4,777,586 0 Projected Growth for 2009 Calendar Year (forecast influence for the remainder of the year) = -5.0% 33 4,664,320 4,927,524 4,833, ,630,834 4,820,829 4,789, Year on Previous Year Energy Growth: 2. Peak/Energy Interrupted 35 4,574,626 4,803,178 4,732,835 0 Last Week: 25 Week:25 (MWh) ,556,357 4,726,410 4,730,349 0 Week on Week growth: % Week:25 Peak Hour (MW) ,546,038 4,749,120 4,714,649 0 Year on Year growth for last week: % 38 4,577,906 4,726,096 4,767,178 0 Instructed IOS Include: 39 4,465,518 4,727,647 4,643,255 0 NSO Energy (TWh) NSO+IOS Energy (TWh) 1.) Agreements 40 4,582,221 4,746,754 4,699, YY Energy growth (%): -1.97% -2.38% 2.) Demand Market Participation (DMP) 41 4,590,909 4,742,893 4,688, , ,221 3.) Virtual Power Station (VPS) 42 4,572,978 4,740,795 4,683, , ,979 4.) Load shedding 43 4,571,293 4,748,910 4,650, , ,907 - Mandatory 44 4,531,890 4,720,888 4,567, , ,341 - Voluntary 45 4,592,295 4,689,948 4,554, , ,662 5.) Events 46 4,612,333 4,788,297 4,474, , ,768 - Network 47 4,595,144 4,749,967 4,474, , ,722 - Sapp 48 4,626,608 4,734,815 4,483, , ,797 - Fires 49 4,631,459 4,680,756 4,406, Weather 50 4,553,798 4,671,558 4,316, Y-end Projection: Based on YTD & OPS Fc 51 4,297,822 4,435,685 4,083, Calender Year 236, , Y-end Projection: Estimate Rev1 at current load level 52 3,879,499 4,066,875 3,665, Financial Year (2008-9) 236, ,669 Peak Demand = MW MWh 14 Mar Apr Apr May May Jun Jun Jul Jul Aug Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec-09 1 Jan-10 3 Jan-10 5 Feb-10 7 Feb-10 9 Mar Mar Mar Apr Apr May May Jun Jun Jul Jul Aug-10 7

8 Actual Demand (Capacity) Week: 25 Calendar Year System Peak Demand (MW) I % Diff with Base Year: 2008 Week W-W Y-Y YTD Week Peak Week: 25 Calendar Year System Peak Demand (MW) Including IOS % % MW LR + IL % -8.13% Rev1 - Unconstrained Fc 18M - Constrained Fc % % Current Operational Fc Energy Rev1 - Unconstrained Fc Estimate Peak Including IOS % % Actual NSO Actual NSO + IOS % % Y-1 [08-09] Peak Include IOS Y-2 [07-08] Peak Include IOS % % Y-3 [06-07] Peak Include IOS Y-4 [05-06] Peak Include IOS % % % % 43, % % 42, % % 41, % -9.36% 40, % -9.36% 39, % -9.36% 38, % -9.36% 37, % -8.48% 36, , % -7.49% 0 34, % -5.90% 33, % -5.90% 32, % -4.09% 31, % -1.19% 30, % 0.67% 29, % -2.34% 28, % -2.54% 27, % -0.45% 26, % -0.45% 25, , Source: SO&P - STLF NOTES: Forecast 18M - Constrained Fc used for 52 weekly capacity available for maintenance I.O.S. = Instructed Interuption of Supply to maintain System frequenc Definitions Growth W-W Growth Compares the Peak/Energy demand growth of a given week against the same week in previous period Y-YYTD Growth Compares the Peak / Energy growth of the Year to Date (YTD) peak against the previous period YTD peak % Diff with Base Year W-W and Y-YYTD index bases on year selection: Forecasts Rev1 - Unconstrained Forecast (Fc) The Long Term forecast approved by Combined Forecasters Forum (CFF) as the peg, given no constraints since M - Constrained Forecast (Fc) The Medium Term forecast including 2008 constraints and approved by CFF and used to schedule Gx outages (see note1) Current Operational Forecast (Fc) The latest official operational forecast as adjusted by STLF process including KSACS load reduction programe Rev1 - Pre Constraint Estimate Rev1 Pre Constraint Forecast scaled at last weeks load level History NSO Gx Nett Sentout NSO+IOS Gx Nett Sentout including Interruption of Supply MW 14 Mar Apr Apr May May Jun Jun Jul Jul Aug Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec-09 1 Jan-10 3 Jan-10 5 Feb-10 7 Feb-10 9 Mar Mar Mar Apr Apr May May Jun Jun Jul Jul Aug-10 8

9 Demand (Actual and Forecast) Week 25 Actual Demand MAPE Max Demand: PPE Week 26 Forecasted Max Demand: MW Mon 15 Jun Tue 16 Jun Wed 17 Jun Thu 18 Jun Fri 19 Jun Sat 20 Jun Sun 21 Jun Mon 22 Jun Tue 23 Jun Wed 24 Jun Thu 25 Jun Fri 26 Jun Sat 27 Jun Sun 28 Jun 9

10 Coal Burn Comparison Tons Coal Burn APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR Act Act E1 Budget Current YTD Burn & Proj E1 E3 10

11 SALES FORECAST FOR GROWTH SCENARIOS GWh Electricity sales forecasts average sales growth 3.6% average sales growth 2.9% average sales growth 1.9% Eskom burn: CAGR = 4% Notes Forecast for 2009 GDP growth revised by Bureau of Economic Research to 1.9%. Medium term GDP growth trend from various economists is between 3 and 4%. Conditions for growth: export friendly exchange rates, economic recovery in OECD countries, bottoming out of commodity prices, moderate inflation rates and lower interest rate outlook. Coupled with appropriate economic policy Coal production: CAGR = 1%

12 THE LONG TERM COAL SUPPLY STRATEGY WILL ONLY REQUIRE REVISION IF ELECTRICITY DEMAND GROWTH DROPS BELOW 2% p.a Energy demand at 4% 3% growth 2% growth Demand sensitivity assumptions Demand scenarios assumed: 4% growth 3% growth with 15% reserve margin 2% growth with 15% reserve margin Nuclear expansion is still part of the plan, but could be replaced by coal OCGT output will be reduced and coal 3&4 delayed before supply from coal is ramped down SA expected energy supply and demand till 2026 GW OCGT Pumped Storage Coal 4 Coal 3 Existing Coal Other** Nuclear 12 * Demand side management ** Local and imported hydro, cogen, renewables, non-eskom coal supply Source: ISEP 11, Eskom PED; team analysis 12

13 ESKOM COAL CONSUMPTION 2008 vs 2018 Eskom s coal consumption, Mtpa Drivers of additional 75Mtpa consumption Return to service of Camden, Grootvlei & Komati +5% CAGR 200 Increased load factor of current stations Demand from 4 new stations: Medupi, Kusile, Coal & Coal

14 SA THERMAL COAL CONSUMPTION vs PRODUCTION, 2008 & 2018 Thermal coal consumption, Mtpa Thermal coal production, Mtpa Other* Exports Eskom** * Includes consumption by Sasol and other consumers ** Reflects FY2008 burn and projected demand for FY 2018 *** Difference between 2008 production and consumption is covered by use of dumps 2008*** Mine closures/ production reduction until 2018 New mines/ production increase until

15 PROJECTED BURN 2009 TO 2026 MT Arnot Duvha Hendrina Kendal Kriel Lethabo Matimba Majuba Matla Tutuka Camden Komati Grootvlei Medupi Bravo NC3 15

16 MEDIUM & LONG TERM COAL SUPPLY F09 F10 F11 F12 F13 F14 F15 F16 F17 F18 F19 F20 Cost Plus (LT exist) Fixed Price ( LT exist) ST Contracts Chikuwa Bravo & Medupi Contract extensions+risk Neg Contract Ext+ Risk Long term(low risk) Long term(high risk) ISEP12 Moderate ISEP12 Low 16

17 Tony 17

18 CONTENTS RECOVERY PLAN SUPPLY AND DEMAND COAL QUALITIES/ LOAD LOSSES ENVIRONMENTAL COST REDUCTION 18

19 COAL RELATED OCLF-MWh(Apr08-Jan09) MAJUBA, 27,173, 2% KRIEL, 64,235, 4% CAMDEN, 107,397, 6% MATIMBA, 17,742, 1% HENDRINA, 1,191, 0% TUTUKA, 117,976, 7% DUVHA, 838,507, 48% MATLA, 557,561, 32% Duvha(48%),Matla(32%),Tutuka(7%)and Camden(6%) together account for 93% of total system coal related OCLF. DUVHA MATLA TUTUKA CAMDEN MATIMBA MAJUBA KRIEL HENDRINA 19

20 Jan-01 Mar-01 May-01 Jul-01 Sep-01 Nov-01 Jan-02 Mar-02 May-02 Jul-02 Sep-02 Nov-02 Jan-03 Mar-03 May-03 Jul-03 Sep-03 Nov-03 Jan-04 Mar-04 May-04 Jul-04 Sep-04 Nov-04 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Feb-07 Apr-07 BL2 Total Aug-08 BL3 Total Nov-07 Jan-01 Mar-01 May-01 Jul-01 Sep-01 Nov-01 Jan-02 Mar-02 May-02 Jul-02 Sep-02 Nov-02 Jan-03 Mar-03 May-03 Jul-03 Sep-03 Nov-03 Jan-04 Mar-04 May-04 Jul-04 Sep-04 Nov-04 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Feb-07 Apr-07 BL2 Total Aug-08 BL3 Total Nov-07 COAL STRATEGY: STONE CONTAMINATION INITIATIVE "Combustible Coal" Mineral matter (MM) Total Coal flow rate Baseline Kaolinite Quartz Pyrite/Carbonates Baseline Mass flow rate (kg/hr 1MWt) Mass flow rate (kg/hr 1MWt) Poorer Coal Quality is attributed to stone contamination. 20

21 BURN RATE FROM JAN 01 TO JULY 08 INCREASE IN BURN RATE FROM JAN'01 TO JUL'08 Burn Rate (kg/uso) Burn rate increase from around 5kg/USO to 5.5kg/USO Burn rate increase from around 5kg/USO to 5.5kg/USO 21

22 CQEM RESULTS ASH IMPACT(mfb) COAL FEED/MILL = 66 T/HR MAXIMUM COAL REQUIRED FOR VARYING LOADS & COAL QUALITIES - MILL THROUGHPUT IS 66*5 = 330T/hr PER BOILER 380 COAL FLOW PER BOILER (Tons/hr) Ash <33%(mf) requires to maintain throughput equivalent to 600MW. Burn 600MW = % Burn 600MW = Burn 600MW = % 31.8% LOAD (MW) Ash = 20.58%Dry Basis Ash = 23.80%Dry Basis Ash = 25.86%Dry Basis Ash = 27.86%Dry Basis Ash = 29.87%Dry Basis Ash = 31.87%Dry Basis Ash = 33.93%Dry Basis Ash = 36.03%Dry Basis Ash = 38.65%Dry Basis Limit 22

23 CONTENTS RECOVERY PLAN SUPPLY AND DEMAND COAL QUALITIES/ LOAD LOSSES ENVIRONMENTAL COST REDUCTION 23

24 Generation Particulate Emissions Compliance to CAPCO Licence Limits 22 June 2009 Tonnage Limit Emissions Limit CAP Limit Exemptions (E) & Contraventions (LC) Monthly Limit (tons) 31-day tonnage Limit (mg/sm 3 )* Weekly average (mg/sm 3 ) Max hourly average (mg/sm 3 ) Hours exceeded Limit (mg/sm 3 ) Hours exceeded 08/09 YTD 09/10 YTD E LC E LC Arnot Duvha U Duvha U Hendrina Kendal Kriel U Kriel U Lethabo Majuba Matimba Matla / Tutuka Camden Stk 1,2,4 Reporting to resume once dust monitor has been re-calibrated Camden Stk Grootvlei 100 To commence In TOTAL For noting Good performance Recurring problems Contravention Exemption Information not available *The emission limit may be exceeded for 30 hours per unit every month

25 Exemption requests 2009FY Station Units April May June July August September October November December January Total days % of total Duvha Kendal Lethabo Please refer to excel file for all power stations. 25

26 CQEM RESULTS PARTICULATE EMISSION CAPCO Limit <170 mg/sm 3 PARTICULATE EMISSIONS WITH VARYING COAL QUALITIES - CAPCO LIMIT <170 mg/sm 3 PARTICULATE EMISSIONS (mg/sm 3 ) Ash <33%(mf)required to maintain particulate emmissions below current CAPCO limit of <170mg/Sm3.Proposed limit reduces to 150 by 2011,then to 125mg/sm3 by 2013 and 75 by % 20.6% LOAD (MW) Ash = 20.58%Dry Basis Ash = 23.80%Dry Basis Ash = 25.86%Dry Basis Ash = 27.86%Dry Basis Ash = 29.87%Dry Basis Ash = 31.87%Dry Basis Ash = 33.93%Dry Basis Ash = 36.03%Dry Basis Ash = 38.65%Dry Basis Limit 26

27 SCHEMATIC LAYOUT OF A PULVERISED FUEL POWER STATION WITH FLUE GAS TREATMENT SYSTEM N, S, and the mineral contained in coal is converted into NOx, SOx, and dust Boiler Steam turbine Dynamo Stack Coal Unloader Bunker Gas Heat exchanger Air Ship Mill 350 De- NOx Air heater 90~150 Electric static precipitator ESP 50 Desulfurization Waste water treatment Removal of NOx in the flue gas Removal of dusts (ashes) in the flue gas Removal of SOx (mainly SO 2 ) in the flue gas To the ash processing 27

28 CONTENTS RECOVERY PLAN SUPPLY AND DEMAND COAL QUALITIES/ LOAD LOSSES ENVIRONMENTAL COST REDUCTION 28

29 Cost Reduction Ktons 135, ,663 R'000 R 22,000, ,000 R 21,114,770 R 21,000, ,000 R 20,198, , ,312 R 19,800,000 R 20,000,000 R 19,000, , , ,000 cost R 17,600,000????? R 18,000,000 R 17,000, , Actuals 2010 PED Budget Target Low Demand Potential Burn R 16,000,000 Tons Rands 29

30 30 Thank you