A UTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD

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A UTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD Moderate Economic Growth GDP up 1.5% in Q2 12. Cautious Consumers Savings rate up, overall retail sales down Vehicle Sales Outperform Economy Vehicle sales up 15.

1 A UTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD Moderate Economic Growth GDP up 1.5% in Q2 12. Cautious Consumers Savings rate up, overall retail sales down Vehicle Sales Outperform Economy Vehicle sales up 15.7% through May 12 Mixed Financial Results for Auto Sector Ford s profit is down, Chrysler s is up Gas Prices Continue to Impact Sales Gas prices drive hybrid vehicle, car sales Market Environment (see page 6 Other Market News) Moderate economic growth: the U.S. GDP expanded at 1.5% in Q2 12, after rising 2.0% in Q1 2. The economy continued to add job, particularly in Jul. 12, but not enough to push unemployment down. 6 Manufacturing slowing down? After 34 months of expansion, the ISM Manufacturing Index contracted both in Jun. and Jul Meanwhile, the Leading Economic Index also decreased 0.3% in Jun Consumers continue to be cautious: amid the uncertainty, consumers are holding off on purchases: overall retail sales have decreased in the past 3 months 4, and consumers are saving more: the savings rate has increased almost 1% between Apr. and Jun. 12 to 4.4% 2. Consumer confidence remains low, and only slightly edged up in Jul. 12 after 4 consecutive monthly drops 3. Automotive Overview (see page 7 Other Auto News) The light vehicle industry was up 15.7% in May 12 and up 11.6% YTD in 12 vs. 11 (see charts on page 3). 11 o Top 7 OEMs (vol.) in May 12: Toyota +50%, Honda +32%, Chrysler +24%, Nissan +11%, Ford +5%, GM +3%, Hyundai +2% o Top Make share gains in % (May 12): Toyota, Acura, Lexus gained most. Jaguar, Volvo, Mitsubishi lost most Polk s 2012 U.S. light vehicle sales forecast: 14.3 million light vehicles 11 Porsche and VW complete their tie up: VW purchases the other half of Porsche AG it didn t already own from holding company Porsche SE. 1 Management shakeup at GM: Global Marketing Chief Joel Ewanick, CTO Tom Stephens, GM Europe President Nick Reilly leave in past 3 months. 1 Q2 OEM financial roundup: Ford s net income dropped 57% to $1.04 billion in Q2 12. While North America and Ford Motor Credit were positive contributors, Ford recorded a loss in its European operations. Chrysler posted a $436 million net profit in Q2 12, after losing $370 million in 11 (the loss included a $551 million government loan repayment), and in line with Q1 s 473 million profit (see others on p. 7). 11 Q2 Supplier financial roundup: Delphi posted a Q2 12 $330 million net income, up 11% from 11. TRW announced a net income of $220 million in Q2 12, down from $293 in 11 due to higher materials costs and taxes (see others on p. 7). 11 Q2 dealer group financial roundup: Group 1 s net income increased by 16% to $28.6 million. Sonic s net income increased 32% in Q2 12 to $28.2 million. AutoNation posted a 9% increase in its net income to 78.6 million in Q Gas prices continue to heavily impact vehicle sales: the rise and fall of gas prices seem to determine increases or decreases in the share of hybrids and cars in the total light vehicle industry (see p. 2 for details) R. L. Polk & Co. All rights reserved. 1

Gas Prices vs. Car Share of Industry The Continued Impact of Gas Prices on Vehicle Sales Car and hybrid sales are heavily influenced by gas prices A glass ceiling for gas prices?

2 Gas Prices vs. Car Share of Industry The Continued Impact of Gas Prices on Vehicle Sales Car and hybrid sales are heavily influenced by gas prices A glass ceiling for gas prices? Gas prices have wildly fluctuated in the past few years. Somehow, however, the glass ceiling for gas prices seem to be about $4 per gallon. Gas prices have hit or come close to that ceiling 3 times in the past 5 years, and twice in the past year (May 2011 and Apr. 2012; see 5 year trend on p.5). After hitting that ceiling, gas prices have come down every time for a period of months before rising again. It will be interesting to track the current ongoing cycle. 10 Hybrid sales and gas price correlation: In the past 2 years since Jun. 10, increases or decreases in gas prices have been closely followed by an increase or decrease in the share of hybrid vehicles in the light vehicle industry. 11 A looser connection between car sales and gas prices: Late 2010/early 2011, as gas prices started ascending, the share of cars in vehicle sales actually dropped. However, since the last gas price peak in May 11, the share of cars in vehicle sales dropped along with falling gas prices, and then increased as gas prices rose as well. 11 Gas Prices vs. Hybrid Share of Industry 2012 R. L. Polk & Co. All rights reserved. 2

3 New Light Vehicle Retail Registrations Total Industry Volume May 2012 Top 7 OEMs by Share May 2012 Top 7 OEMs by Volume May 2012 Top 7 OEMs Volume Changes May 2012 Top Luxury Brand Volume Changes May 2012 Top Non Luxury Brand Volume Changes May 2012 CM o PM: May 12 vs. Apr. 12 / CM o PYM: May 12 vs. May 11 / CYTD o PYTD: Jan. May 12 vs. 11 / CRY o PRY: Jun. 11 May 12 vs. Jun. 10 May. 11) 2012 R. L. Polk & Co. All rights reserved. 3

Retail Sales from Preceding Month 1 0.5 0 0.5 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Economic Indicators The Economy in Brief Retail Sales Jun. 12 retail sales were down by 0.5% from May but up by 3.8% from Jun.

4 Retail Sales from Preceding Month Source: U.S. Census Bureau Economic Indicators The Economy in Brief Retail Sales Jun. 12 retail sales were down by 0.5% from May but up by 3.8% from Jun. 11. Sporting goods/book/music stores, and building/garden sales stores were down the most ( 1.6%). 4 Jun. 12 new home sales were down 8.4% from May but up 15.1% from Jun Due to low inventories, existing home sales decreased by 5.4% in Jun. from May 12 but increased by 4.5% from Jun CPI Changes from Preceding Month Source: U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics Inflation The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was unchanged in Jun. 12 from May Excluding food and energy, the index was up 0.2%, similar to the past 4 months. The gasoline index dropped for the 3 rd consecutive month. 6 The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased 0.1% in Jun. 12. Excluding food and energy, the index rose 0.2%. 6 Unemployment Rate Source: U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment The unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.2% in Jun ,000 jobs were created in Jun., primarily in professional and business services; temporary help services accounted for 25,000 of the increase. 6 The Employment Trend Index decreased to in Jun. 12. The index has been relatively flat since Feb. 12, indicating slow job growth in the coming months. 3 Consumer Confidence Index Consumer Confidence The Consumer Confidence Index dropped for 4 consecutive months through Jun. at 62.7 but increased in Jul. to The CEO Confidence Index dropped to 47 (reflecting more negative than positive responses in the survey) in Q2 12, after increasing in the 1 st quarter. 3 Source: The Conference Board Stock Market Reflecting a period of uncertainty, the Dow moved up and down a few hundred points for most of July, crossing the 13,000 mark at the end of the month on hopes European and U.S. central banks would act to spur the global economy. 7 Ford and GM shares continued to drop to their lowest levels since Fall Source: MSN Money 2012 R. L. Polk & Co. All rights reserved. 4

Last High in Early Apr. 11 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 Gas Prices 5 Year Trend 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 U.S. Regular Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices (Cents per Gallon) Linear (U.S. Regular Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices (Cents per Gallon)) Source: U.

5 The Economy in Brief (continued) U.S. $/Euro Stock Market (continued) Oil & Currencies The Dollar gained against the Euro in Jul. 12, but continued to drop against the Yen since a high in Mar Retail gas prices dropped for the 4 th consecutive month but spot prices increased for most of Jul Source: MSN Money Retail Gas Prices Down 12% vs. Last High in Early Apr Gas Prices 5 Year Trend U.S. Regular Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices (Cents per Gallon) Linear (U.S. Regular Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices (Cents per Gallon)) Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) U.S. Regular Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices (Cents per Gallon) Linear (U.S. Regular Conventional Retail Gasoline Prices (Cents per Gallon)) Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Spot Oil Prices Down 17% from Highs in Mar. 12 but up 16% since recent lows in Jun World Spot Oil Prices (Brent Dollars/Barrel) Linear (World Spot Oil Prices (Brent Dollars/Barrel)) Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA) 2012 R. L. Polk & Co. All rights reserved. 5

6 The GDP increased 1.5% in Q The ISM Manufacturing Index contracted for the first time since the end of the recession. 8 The savings rate continued to rise to 4.4% in Jun Market Summary Other Market News The GDP increased 1.5% in Q1 12, following a 2.0% rise in Q1. Durable goods (primarily vehicles) spending slowed, while imports rose more than imports. Business investment also slowed. 2 The international trade deficit decreased to $48.7 billion in May 12, from $50.6 billion in Apr. Exports were up $0.4 billion and imports decreased by $1.6 billion, mostly driven by industrial supplies and materials. 2 The Leading Economic Index (LEI) decreased by 0.3% in Jun. 12 to 95.6, following an increase in May (+0.4%) and a decrease in Apr. ( 0.1%). 3 The ISM Manufacturing index decreased in Jun. to 49.7 from 53.5 in May 12, marking the first contraction since the end of the recession. The largest decrease was in new orders, which dropped 12.3% from May. The ISM non manufacturing index dropped to 52.1% in Jun. 12, but still indicated expansion for the 30 th consecutive month. 8 New orders for manufactured durable goods increased 1.3% in Jun. 12 (advance report) from May, and transportation equipment had the largest increase at 8.0%. New orders for manufactured goods overall, though, were down 0.5% in Jun. 12, following a May increase. 4 Construction spending in Jun. 12 was up 0.4% from May, and up 7.0% from Jun. 11. Residential construction increased by 1.3% (0% for non residential), and private construction also increased by 0.7% (0% for public construction) in Jun. from May Real estate: o Private housing starts were up 6.9% in Jun. from May 12 but were up 28.5% from May o Jun. 12 new homes for sale represented a 4.9 months supply. New home sales were up 14.6% in the Midwest, 2.1% in the West but were down 60.0% in the Northeast, and 8.6% in the South. 4 o Total existing home inventory in Jun. 12 decreased 3.2%, representing a 6.6 months supply, 24.4% below May 11. Distressed homes (foreclosures and short sales) accounted for 25% of existing sales in Jun. 12, unchanged from May 11. Existing home sales declined by 11.5% in the Northeast, 1.9% in the Midwest, 6.9% in the West, and 4.4% in the South. 5 o The Case Shiller index indicated that home prices increased monthover month (+2.2% in May 12 from Apr. 12) but still dropped year over year ( 0.7% in May 12 from May 11 for the 20 City Composite). 9 o Home mortgages rates continued to drop: the average for a 30 year fixed mortgage fell to a record 3.68% in Jun. 12, and fell further to 3.49% by the end of Jul. 13 Personal income was up 0.5% in Jun. 12 and the real disposable income was up 0.3%. The savings rate continued to rise, increasing from 3.6% in Apr. to 4.0% in May to 4.4% in Jun Household debt has been steadily decreasing since the end of the recession in 09: the ratio of Debt payments to disposable personal income was at its lowest in Q1 12 since R. L. Polk & Co. All rights reserved. 6

7 For additional information, or to clarify information contained in this report, please contact Stephan Gallon at For more information on Polk, please visit Polk is the premier provider of automotive information and marketing solutions. Polk collects and interprets global data, and provides extensive automotive business expertise to help customers understand their market position, identify trends, build brand loyalty, conquest new business and gain a competitive advantage. Polk helps automotive manufacturers and dealers, automotive aftermarket companies, finance and insurance companies, advertising agencies, media companies, consulting organizations, government agencies and market research firms make good business decisions. A privately held global firm, Polk is based in Southfield, Michigan with operations in Australia, Canada, China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States. Sources: 1 Automotive News 2 U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis 3 The Conference Board 4 U.S. Census Bureau Economic Indicators 5 NAR National Association of Realtors 6 U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics 7 MSN Money 8 ISM Institute for Supply Management 9 Standard & Poor s Case Shiller Home Price Indices 10 EIA U.S. Energy Information Administration 11 Polk 12 Federal Reserve Board 13 Freddie Mac Mortgage Market Survey Market Summary (continued) Other Auto News Domestic Auto News 1 o GM launches Love it or return it campaign allowing consumers to return 12 and 13 models within 60 days of purchase and nohaggle pricing on 12 models, o Tesla s net loss in Q2 12 increased to $105.6 million, from $58.9 million in 11. o Ally Financial reported a net loss of $898 million in Q2 12 o American Axle s Q2 12 profit dropped to $4.7 million from $49.2 in 11 due to rising costs and plant closings o Dana reported a 26% rise in profits to $86 million in Q2 12 o BorgWarner posted a 26% drop in profits to $120 million o Federal Mogul announced a Q2 12 $59 million net loss compared to a $64 million profit in 11, largely due to a $119 impairment charge o Tenneco s Q2 12 net profit increased 74% to $87 million, driven primarily by higher sales to OEMs in the U.S. International Auto News 1 o France s government increases incentives to spur sales of hybrid and electric vehicles o Renault hints at adding a luxury brand o Hyundai and Kia workers vote to strike for the first time since 08 o BMW s EBIT dropped by 19% to $2.79 billion due to increased personnel and developments costs as well as competition o Daimler s EBIT decreased 13% to $2.7 billion in Q2 12 from 11 o VW s operating profit increased 3.4% in Q2 12 to $3.98 billion o Mazda reported an $83 million net loss in Q2 11 vs. a $325 net loss in 11 thanks in part to the success of the CD 5. o Honda posted a $2.25 billion operating profit in Q2 12 o Nissan s operating profit in Q2 12 dropped 19.7% to $1.5 billion, while its net profit was down 15%. o Mitsubishi indicated that its net profit increased fivefold to $254.4 million in Q2 12, while its operating profit increased by 22%. o Hyundai reported a 10% rise in its net profit to $2.2 billion o Kia posted a $965 million net profit Q2 12 that fell 2.8% versus 11 and missed analyst estimates o Renault s EBIT dropped to $592 million in the 1 st half of 12, while Peugeot lost over $800 million in the same time period o Denso posted a $619 million net income in Q2 12, up from $32 million in 11 following the earthquake crisis o Michelin s net profit jumped 37% to $1.13 billion in the 1 st half of R. L. Polk & Co. All rights reserved. 7

Outlook for Franchised New Car Dealers

1 Outlook for Franchised New Car Dealers Fourteenth Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium June 1, 2007 Paul Taylor, Ph.D., Chief Economist National Automobile Dealers Association, McLean, VA www.nada.org