National Economic Estimating Conference Held July 12, 2018 FINAL Long-Run Tables

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Estella Simpson
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1 TABLE OF CONTENTS SECTION PAGE Executive Summary 2 Real Expenditures 4 Components of Income 6 Employment and Output 7 Financial Markets 9 Prices 10 Nominal Expenditures 12 The National Economic Estimating Conference met on July 12, 2018, and adopted the IHS Markit baseline forecast with caution. While the economy remains solid and the near-term outlook is close to the last forecast adopted in January, trade tensions are ratcheting up. Significant new developments occurring immediately after the release of the IHS Markit forecast prevented their inclusion in the IHS models. Because of this, the adopted forecast carries greater than normal risk.

2 Executive Summary 1. Real Gross Domestic Product, January , , , , , , , , , , ,716.9 NA Control, July , , , , , , , , , , , ,031.5 Percent Change, January NA Control, July Total Non-Farm Jobs (Millions), January NA Control, July Percent Change, January NA Control, July Unemployment Rate (%), January NA Control, July Housing Starts (Millions Of Units), January NA Control, July Percent Change, January NA Control, July Consumer Price Index, January NA Control, July Percent Change, January NA Control, July Conventional Mortgage Rate (%), January NA Control, July Federal Funds Rate (%), January NA Control, July Federal Surplus (Nipa Basis), January , , , , , , , ,441.4 NA Control, July , , , , , , , , , Corp. Profits Before Taxes ($,Billions), January , , , , , , , , , , ,899.3 NA Control, July , , , , , , , , , , , ,562.2 Percent Change, January NA Control, July Standard & Poor's Index, January , , , , , , , , , , ,155.1 NA Control, July , , , , , , , , , , , ,249.0 Percent Change, January NA Control, July Held July 12,

3 11. Consumer Sentiment Index, January NA Control, July Percent Change, January NA Control, July Index,Real Gdp--Major Trade Partners, January NA Control, July Percent Change, January NA Control, July Trade-Weighted Exchange Rate, January NA Control, July Percent Change, January NA Control, July Held July 12,

4 Real Expenditures (2005 $, Billions) 1. Real Gross Domestic Product, January , , , , , , , , , , ,716.9 NA Control, July , , , , , , , , , , , ,031.5 Percent Change, January NA Control, July Consumer Spending, January , , , , , , , , , , ,661.3 NA Control, July , , , , , , , , , , , ,807.6 Percent Change, January NA Control, July Consumption, Nondurables, January , , , , , , , , , , ,148.9 NA Control, July , , , , , , , , , , , ,092.0 Percent Change, January NA Control, July Consumption, Motor Vehicles & Parts, January NA Control, July Percent Change, January NA Control, July Consumption, Other Durables, January NA Control, July Percent Change, January NA Control, July Consumption, Services, January , , , , , , , , , , ,227.2 NA Control, July , , , , , , , , , , , ,477.3 Percent Change, January NA Control, July Gross Private Domestic Investment, January , , , , , , , , , , ,913.1 NA Control, July , , , , , , , , , , , ,016.1 Percent Change, January NA Control, July Fixed Non-Residential Investment, January , , , , , , , , , , ,093.3 NA Control, July , , , , , , , , , , , ,245.9 Percent Change, January NA Control, July Fixed Non-Residential Structures, January NA Control, July Percent Change, January NA Control, July Held July 12,

5 10. Fixed Residential Investment, January NA Control, July Percent Change, January NA Control, July Inventory Investment, January NA Control, July Government Spending, January , , , , , , , , , , ,059.6 NA Control, July , , , , , , , , , , , ,103.0 Percent Change, January NA Control, July Net Exports, January NA Control, July , , , , , Held July 12,

6 Components of Income ($, Billions) 1. Personal Income, January , , , , , , , , , , ,023.4 NA Control, July , , , , , , , , , , , ,071.8 Percent Change, January NA Control, July Wages & Salaries, January , , , , , , , , , , ,845.1 NA Control, July , , , , , , , , , , , ,344.4 Percent Change, January NA Control, July Other Labor Income, January , , , , , , , , , , ,834.9 NA Control, July , , , , , , , , , , , ,098.7 Percent Change, January NA Control, July Proprietors' Income, January , , , , , , , , , , ,865.2 NA Control, July , , , , , , , , , , , ,979.1 Percent Change, January NA Control, July Property Income, January , , , , , , , , , , ,943.2 NA Control, July , , , , , , , , , , , ,964.8 Percent Change, January NA Control, July Transfer Payments, January , , , , , , , , , , ,573.5 NA Control, July , , , , , , , , , , , ,764.4 Percent Change, January NA Control, July Real Disposable Income, January , , , , , , , , , , ,064.2 NA Control, July , , , , , , , , , , , ,150.5 Percent Change, January NA Control, July Real Per Capita Personal Income, January , , , , , , , , , , ,538.6 NA Control, July , , , , , , , , , , , ,596.1 Percent Change, January NA Control, July Savings Rate (%), January NA Control, July Held July 12,

7 Employment and Output 1. U.S. Population (Millions), January NA Control, July Percent Change, January NA Control, July Civilian Labor Force (Millions), January NA Control, July Percent Change, January NA Control, July Labor Force Participation Rate (%), January NA Control, July Percent Change, January NA Control, July Total Employment, CPS (Millions), January NA Control, July Percent Change, January NA Control, July Total Non-Farm Jobs (Millions), January NA Control, July Percent Change, January NA Control, July Unemployment Rate (%), January NA Control, July Employment Cost Index, January NA Control, July Percent Change, January NA Control, July Nonfarm Productivity Index, January NA Control, July Percent Change, January NA Control, July Total Industrial Production Index, January NA Control, July Percent Change, January NA Control, July Held July 12,

8 10. Housing Starts (Millions Of Units), January NA Control, July Percent Change, January NA Control, July New Light Vehicle Sales (Millions Of Units), January NA Control, July Percent Change, January NA Control, July Held July 12,

9 Financial Markets 1. Prime Rate (%), January NA Control, July Day T-Bill Rate (%), January NA Control, July Day T-Bill Rate (%), January NA Control, July Aaa Corporate Bond Rate (%), January NA Control, July Conventional Mortgage Rate (%), January NA Control, July Money Supply, M1 (Billions Of Dollars), January , , , , , , , , , , ,548.6 NA Control, July , , , , , , , , , , , ,630.4 Percent Change, January NA Control, July Money Supply, M2 (Billions Of Dollars), January , , , , , , , , , , ,933.1 NA Control, July , , , , , , , , , , , ,951.3 Percent Change, January NA Control, July Municipal Bond Rate (%), January NA Control, July Standard & Poor's Index, January , , , , , , , , , , ,155.1 NA Control, July , , , , , , , , , , , ,249.0 Percent Change, January NA Control, July Held July 12,

10 Prices 1. Consumer Price Index, January NA Control, July Percent Change, January NA Control, July Consumer Price Index (calender), January Control, July Percent Change, January Control, July Core Consumer Price Index, January NA Control, July Percent Change, January NA Control, July Wholesale Price Index, January NA Control, July Percent Change, January NA Control, July Price Of Crude Oil ($ Per Barrel), January NA Control, July Percent Change, January NA Control, July Chained Price Index, Gdp, January NA Control, July Percent Change, January NA Control, July Chained Price Index, Consumer Spending, January NA Control, July Percent Change, January NA Control, July Chained Price Index, Non-Durables, January NA Control, July Percent Change, January NA Control, July Chained Price Index, Gas & Oil, January NA Control, July Percent Change, January NA Control, July Held July 12,

11 10. Chained Price Index, Durables, January NA Control, July Percent Change, January NA Control, July Chained Price Index, New Light Vehicles, January NA Control, July Percent Change, January NA Control, July Chained Price Index, Consumer Services, January NA Control, July Percent Change, January NA Control, July Chained Price Index, Medical Services, January NA Control, July Percent Change, January NA Control, July Held July 12,

12 Nominal Expenditures ($, Billions) 1. Gross Domestic Product, January , , , , , , , , , , ,954.5 NA Control, July , , , , , , , , , , , ,513.4 Percent Change, January NA Control, July Consumer Spending, January , , , , , , , , , , ,934.1 NA Control, July , , , , , , , , , , , ,951.9 Percent Change, January NA Control, July Consumption, Nondurables, January , , , , , , , , , , ,119.8 NA Control, July , , , , , , , , , , , ,187.0 Percent Change, January NA Control, July Consumption, Motor Vehicles & Parts, January NA Control, July Percent Change, January NA Control, July Consumption, Other Durables, January NA Control, July Percent Change, January NA Control, July Consumption, Services, January , , , , , , , , , , ,855.2 NA Control, July , , , , , , , , , , , ,688.4 Percent Change, January NA Control, July Gross Private Domestic Investment, January , , , , , , , , , , ,980.7 NA Control, July , , , , , , , , , , , ,508.0 Percent Change, January NA Control, July Fixed Non-Residential Investment, January , , , , , , , , , , ,684.2 NA Control, July , , , , , , , , , , , ,105.6 Percent Change, January NA Control, July Fixed Non-Residential Structures, January NA Control, July Percent Change, January NA Control, July Held July 12,

13 10. Fixed Residential Investment, January , , , , , ,227.5 NA Control, July , , , , , ,319.8 Percent Change, January NA Control, July Inventory Investment, January NA Control, July Government Spending, January , , , , , , , , , , ,491.5 NA Control, July , , , , , , , , , , , ,787.2 Percent Change, January NA Control, July Net Exports, January NA Control, July Held July 12,

Appendix B STATISTICAL TABLES RELATING TO INCOME, EMPLOYMENT, AND PRODUCTION

Appendix B STATISTICAL TABLES RELATING TO INCOME, EMPLOYMENT, AND PRODUCTION C O N T E N T S Page NATIONAL INCOME OR EXPENDITURE: B. Gross domestic product, 959 005... 80 B. Real gross domestic product,