World markets trends & Iran s Petroleum Investment Plans
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1 World markets trends & Iran s Petroleum Investment Plans By H. Ghanimi Fard, Ph. D. Vice President for Investment Affairs - NIOC & Faculty Member of Petroleum University of Technology To Enhancing Global Energy Security through Cooperation and Partnership Kuwait City, Kuwait March 30-31, 2009
2 Introduction World financial Crises are indigenous factors of free market economies Liberalizations in financial market in 1980,s and 1990,s were the main causes for recent world financial problems Regulated markets have hidden and delayed the existence and appearance of the recent crisis
3 Results of World Financial Crises On some Markets Crude Oil Petroleum Products Natural Gas Transportation Foreign Exchange Interest Rate Metals Agricultural Products Stock Exchange Indices
4 ICE-BWAVE ( ) 150 b / $ Min Max
5 WTI ( ) b / $
6 (OMAN + DUBAI) / 2 ( ) 150 b / $
7 $/MTON Fuel Oil Prices in USA ( )
8 Premium Gasoline Prices in Persian Gulf ( ) $/MTON
9 Fuel Oil Prices in Persian Gulf (180 CST) $/MTON
10 Natural Gas Prices in 2008 Henry-Hub, South California and Toronto USD/MBTU HENRY-HUB S.CALIFORNIA TORONTO
11 Natural Gas Prices in 2009 Henry-Hub, South California and Toronto USD/MBTU HENRY-HUB S.CALIFORNIA TORONTO
12 LNG Prices for Japan ( ) USD/MBTU Japan LNG
13 Natural Gas Prices- ICE ( ) USD/MBTU Natural Gas ( ICE )
14 Tanker Rate in KT from PG to: World Scale S.KOREA USG ( 260) UKC
15 World Scale Tanker Rate in KT from PG to: S.KOREA USG ( 260) UKC
16 EUR / DLR( )
17 DLR / YEN( )
18 LIBOR CITIBANK ) Annual %(
19 Grain prices USD/MT Wheat Corn Barley
20 Grain prices USD/MT Wheat 226 Corn Barley
21 Sugar Prices 2008 Sugar CENT/LBS Sugar
22 Sugar Prices 2009 Sugar CENT/LBS Sugar
23 Gold and Steel Prices UST/OZS Jan Fe Ma Apr Ma Jun Jul Au Se Oct No De Gold Steel
24 Gold and Steel Prices 2009 (G=USD/OZS) (S=USD/TON) Gold Steel 151.5
25 DOW-JONES & NASDAQ & NIKKIE (2008) DOW_JONES NASDAQ NIKKIE
26 DOW-JONES & NASDAQ & NIKKIE (2009) DOW_JONES NASDAQ NIKKIE
27 GDP Growth )%( سا رش د اقتصا
28 )م ب ر( Oil Demand Trend Mmb/d تقاضا OPEC Supply Trend )م ب ر( Mmb/d توليد اپ
29 Investment Opportunities in Iranian Petroleum Industry
30 Investment priorities in oil and gas upstream projects Joint oil & gas fields with the neighbors Brown oil & gas fields: Production capacity maintenance Enhanced development Secondary oil recovery (gas &/ water injection) Green oil & gas fields
31 NIOC Oil and Gas Investment Plans ( ) Buy Back oil projects $ B Buy Back gas projects & consumption optimization $ B Finance $ B Sub total Internal financial sources $ B $ B (NIOC own investment) Grand total $ B
32 Development Plans of Oil and Gas ( )(1) Exploration: Exploration of new oil fields : 500 million barrels/year Exploration of new gas fields : 150 BCM/year * exploration and development of 17 new blocks (12 onshore and 5 offshore) Production of Oil and Gas: Onshore Fields: Oil Development of 28 oil fields Development of possible gas fields from new exploration activities (onshore) Gas Development of 14 gas fields Development of gas formations of more than 10 oil fields Development of possible gas fields from new exploration activities (onshore)
33 Production of Oil and Gas Offshore Fields: Oil Development of 7 oil fields Development of possible oil fields from exploration blocks Development and gas injection in two oil field Gas Development of 15 gas fields Development of at least 16 new standard phases of South Pars gas field Development of possible gas fields from exploration activities (offshore) Development Plans of Oil and Gas ( )(2)
34 Technological Challenges in Oil & Gas Upstream Deep water oil fields (e.g. Caspian Sea) Non- conventional oil fields (e.g. Ferdowsi oil field) Very heavy oil fields (e.g. Yadavaran) Transfer of new technologies
35 Country Gas Export Projects by Pipeline ( ) (1) Max. Delivery (mmcm/d) Start Year Turkey Armenia United Arab Emirates Kuwait Oman Bahrain
36 Gas Export Projects by Pipeline ( ) (2( Country Max. Delivery (mmcm/d) Start Year Pakistan India 30 Syria Europe
37 Liquefied Natural Gas projects ( ) IRAN-LNG: Persian-LNG: Pars-LNG : Chinese: Malaysia: Capacity 10.7 MMt/y(54 mmcm/d) Capacity 16.2 MMt/y(78 mmcm/d) Capacity 10 MMt/y (54 mmcm/d) Capacity 20 MMt/y(113 mmcm/d) Capacity 10 MMt/y(57 mmcm/d) Total: Capacity 66.9MMt/y(356mmcm/d)
38 Conclusion Ample of Oil and Gas Reserves in Iran Low Cost of Oil and Gas Production in Iran Long Experience of IOC,s and Reputable Service Companies in Iran No Risk for secured rate of return on investment
39 Conclusion Profitability for export of Materials, Facilities, Technical Services and Technologies to Oil and Gas Industry of Iran Decreasing Unemployment and Increasing Added Value in the Exporting Countries of Materials, Services and Technologies to Iran Assured Security of Oil and Gas Supply in the International Market for the Future through IOCs and NOCs Cooperation with NIOC in a Depoliticized Energy Environment and Free of any Unfair Sanction.
40 Thank You
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