Africa: just how big will it be?

Transcription

1 Africa: just how big will it be? 6th Annual Crude Oil Summit Hilton Tower Bridge, London, UK May 13, 2013 Dave Ernsberger, Global Editorial Director Oil, Platts 2013 Platts, McGraw Hill Financial. All rights reserved.

2 Africa: Where we are today Data: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2

3 Supply, demand mismatch across Africa Major gulfs between supply, demand centers Logistics impede intra-continent trade 1.7 Crude production (8.8 million b/d) Oil demand (3.3 million b/d) 0.8 Refining investments challenged Data: International Energy Agency, BP Statistical Review of World Energy, other analysis 3

4 Current trade balances Africa built on crude exports Cross-Med keeps North Africa products in balance West Africa a heavy importer of gasoline South Africa imports 400,000 b/d crude Data: CIA, BP Statistical Review of World Energy 4

5 Highlights of African oil potential Demand growth of 200,000 b/d annually Broad range of refinery investment projects Strong interest in partnering up with Asian giants Instability constrains both demand and supply 5

6 Africa: Good Crude Development Potential Libya, Algeria, Egypt: Well positioned for Med Nigeria, Angola, Sudan: Strong partnership opportunities Data: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 6

7 Libya: Rapid recovery, bright future Developing reserves through partnerships Targeting 2 million b/d by 2015 Wintershall, ConocoPhillips, Marathon, Hess, RWE, Sonatrach, Oil India, IOC, Total active New Total offshore drilling starts this month Courting Aramco, Sabic, Mubadala 7

8 Nigeria: Keen on Africa partnerships Total's Egina, and Exxon's Erha North deep offshore fields to start by 2016, add 350,000 b/d to production India emerging as largest market for Nigeria in 2013, taking 15-20% of exports Agreed strategic partnership with South Africa in early May Theft running at an estimated 150,000 b/d 8

9 Angola: Steady development BP, Marathon, Eni, Total, Statoil actively exploring prospects BP started Plutao offshore in 2012 (150,000 b/d) Total to bring on first oil from offshore Clov block in mid (160,000 b/d) Eni planning to start up West Hub in 2014 Over the coming decade, we expect Angola, where we have extensive interests from exploration through to production, to be one of the main hubs delivering growth for BP --BP CEO Bob Dudley, January

10 Algeria: Recovering from crisis Anadarko, Eni, Maersk Oil, Talisman, ConocoPhillips, Pertamina, BP, Statoil, Repsol, Total, RWE, Edison, Cepsa, GDF Suezm Gazprom, PTTEP, CNOOC active in developments El Merk started supplying oil this month (127,000 b/d) Developing closer ties with Russia Has updated hydrocarbon law to encourage new exploration 10

11 Sudan: Finding a way to recover from war South Sudan independent since 2011 Dar Blend production from Paloch field suspended in early 2012 (185,000 b/d) Production resumed this month, now arriving in Port Sudan Sudan, South Sudan enjoy strong demand from China, India for Nile Blend, Dar Blend crudes South Sudan courting Gazprom, Trafigura, Total; looking at alternative export routes through Kenya and Djibouti 11

12 A common challenge: Finding new markets Persian Gulf OPEC exports to US vs West African exports Mostly Light, Sweet Mostly Heavy, Sour Source: US EIA Persian Gulf OPEC = Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar 12

13 Africa among many at risk US Suppliers

14 Potential for refinery expansions Keen interest in expanding existing refineries, some new projects Number of cars may reach 600 million in 2020, 1.6 billion in 2040 ARA targeting Afri-4 (150ppm) specs by 2020, Afri-5 (50ppm) specs by 2025 Move to better quality fuels designed to spur refinery investments South Africa taking a lead with investments, but can it support 360,000 b/d refinery? 14

15 In conclusion Africa s expansion continues despite tough odds Will always hold appeal for global majors, independents North Africa benefits from position on the Med Strong interest from India, China to build up sub-sahara Strategic investments while supplies outpace demand 15