A Different Set of Problems: Trucking & Heavy Equipment Demand Shift Into High Gear

Transcription

1 A Different Set of Problems: Trucking & Heavy Equipment Demand Shift Into High Gear Kenny Vieth ACT RESEARCH Co., LLC Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Automotive Outlook Symposium June 3, 211

2 It s NOT Different This Time Thesis: We have experienced a deep correction, rather than a fundamental shift in the relationship between freight and the trucks needed to haul it. As freight and business fundamentals normalize, so too will commercial vehicle demand There is nothing to replace heavy trucks in the U.S. or global economies 2

3 U.S. Logistics Spend as a Percentage of GDP Council for Supply Chain Management Professionals, ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2 Transportation Spending Inventory Carying Costs Total Logistics Bill

4 Marginal Demand Considerations: Evolution not Revolution Detracting from Demand Accretive to Demand Trend Period Packaging evolution Population Growth 2 year Retail Consolidation Internet Shopping 2+ years Electronics Miniaturization Intermodal Ubiquitousness of electronics 2+ years 2 year JIT Operations JIT Operations 2 year Mfg. On-shoring (Mex.) Now/Coming 4

5 Changing Freight Patterns I U.S Tractor Market: Sleepers as a Percentage of Total Tractor Sales 7 Share of Tractor Market Year MA Retail Sales 12MMA Net Orders ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 211 5

6 Changing Freight Patterns II 14 Percent E-Commerce as a Percentage of Retail Sales (excluding food service) Q1'21 - Q4' Source: Federal Reserve Board, ACT Research: Copyright 211 6

7 Economic Summary Recovery appears to be self sustaining. Strong tailwinds Consumers are well positioned QE2, December Stimulus Manufacturing continues at robust levels Business investment strong Inventories low relative to sales Rising headwinds External: Arab Spring Japan (short term), Eurozone debt Internal: State & local tax receipts, fixing budgets w/o breaking recovery

8 Consumer Fundamentals Have Firmed $ Billions Real Disposable Personal Income Actual and Y/Y % Change Q1'1 - Q4' %Chg Percent Personal Savings Rate January 2 - March 211 Percent-SAAR 12mma '11 Source: BEA, ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright Percent Household Financial Obligations as % of Disposable Income Q1'9 - Q4' Source: BEA, ACT Research: Copyright 211 1ppt = ~$b % ' '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 ' Source: Federal Reserve Board, ACT Research: Copyright 211

9 Supply-chain constraints Tires Wiring harness connectors Small engines Axles (maybe bearings) Coming Castings Ramp-Up Issues Commodity inflation: Between demand and input inflation, truck & trailer manufacturers are getting pricing/instituting surcharges 9

10 This Cycle Looks Familiar Supply-demand between freight and trucks has tilted in truckers favor Trucker profits have rebounded Used equipment prices are rising Credit availability/worthiness improving Two years of deferred capex has created pent-up demand and a really old fleet Rising trucker confidence Regulatory/driver shortage issues should negatively effect productivity, positively influencing new vehicle demand

11 Rhymes with History Class 8 Orders Period August Following March % Chg k 32.6k +91% k 23.3k +1% 1-2* 9.k 29.1k +233% * Prebuy ahead of EPA k 33.5k +122% k 29.2k +135%

12 Time to replace some trucks 24 U.S. Class 8 Replacement & Trade-In Models Units (s) FIRST OWNER MODEL: FIRST TRADES ACTIVE POP. MODE L: REPLACEMENT 8 ' ' ' ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 211 Date Sold Years of Service USC8RS , , , , ,

13 Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index ATA Monthly Truck Tonnage Index (SA) January 22 - April 211 January '2 - April '11 (2=) 1 Index (22=) Y/Y % Chg SA Index % Change Y/Y % Change (Right Axis) Source: Ceridian, UCLA, ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 211 Source, American Trucking Association, ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright Loads Per Truck Transcore Loadboard Data January '3 - April '11 (2=) Loads Per Truck LPT "SA" Source, Transcore Commercial Technology Group, ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright

14 16 12 Percent Change ACT U.S. Freight Composite Q/Q at SAAR, Y/Y Q1'97 - Q4'12(Actual through Q4') ANN. AVG. +6.8% +4.9%+6.7% Source: ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 211

15 Tight Capacity Favors Truckers 25 Thousands U.S. Class 8 Supply & Freight Demand Overbuy:Underbuy ' ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright

16 Not A New Phenomenon The Traffic World (part of Journal of Commerce) Dec. 12, 1914 The Truck Driver Problem Practically every truck manufacturer and nearly all employers complain of the great difficulty of securing drivers who are competent and who will work handling freight aside from those who drive horses. They are agreed that the profit or loss from truck transportation is largely dependent upon the drivers, and yet a majority of truck owners will hire the men who will work cheapest, entrusting valuable property in their keeping ) 16

17 The Root of the Problem DRIVER SUPPLY: U.S. MALES Potential Hirees & Impending Retirees Warm Bodies (s) 21 Year-olds 65 Year-olds 2-22 SUPPLY OF INCOMING CDL-AGE U.S. MALES SHRINKS Driver The Root of the Driver Shortage Driver Wages Relative to Food Prep Workers Food Service $28,(e) HARD TO FIND DRIVERS NOT SO HARD TO FIND DRIVERS U.S. MALES AT RETIREMENT AGE RISES SHARPLY $39, $7,(e) $19, Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2 BLS OES, ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 2 When the supply-gap disappears, wages are going to rise rapidly A check at MATS indicated long-haul TLs wages are still ~$35-$4k/year At 4:1, drivers would be making ~$75k A tight driver supply will accelerate fleets moves to replace old units with newer models so as to attract new/retain existing drivers. 17

18 Workers to Spare? Truck Transportation Employment January 23 - April 211 (Seasonally Adjusted) Incremental 2k not trucking (for-hire fleets) 15 Employment ('s) M-M jobs Chg (s) Employment ('s) Construction Employment: Production & Nonsupervisory January 23 - April 211 (Seasonally Adjusted) M-M jobs Chg (s) '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 ' Source: BLS, ACT Research: Copyright Incremental 1.7 million NOT working construction! '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 ' Source: BLS, ACT Research: Copyright

19 Weather, Fuel Bite in Q1 TL Carrier Database: Net Profit Margin(excl. SWFT) Q1 '97 - Preliminary Q1 '11 7. % 6. 4 Quarter Moving Average ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 211

20 Into the Preferred Quadrant 2

21 AVERAGE AGE: U.S. Class 8 Active Population Avg. Age in Years ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright

22 55 $(s)/unit Used Class 8: Average Retail Selling Price Monthly & 3MMA January '3 - March ' ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 211 Y/Y % Chg Jumped to $68.8k in April Slipped to $42.3k in April CLASS 8: U.S. USED TRUCK AVERAGE SALE PRICE 4 to 5 years old, 4-5, miles January '9 - Preliminary March '11 Total Reported Price ($) Monthly & 6 Mo. Avg. Same Dealer Sales Y/Y% Chg. (right axis) 9 11 Y/Y % Change ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright

23 Current Demand Environment: Class 8 & Trailers Indicators generally pointing in the right direction Orders: Rise sharply in Q4-Q1» Rise to 5-plus year highs in March-April» Orders continue to be placed close-in» Breadth of demand expanding Backlogs: Rising since September Build: Build rates are following Orders higher» Rising BL/BU ratios will support higher build rates Retail Sales: Trending higher» Have been close to two-year highs for several months Inventory: Not an impediment to build» Likely accretive into

24 On Fire TOTAL CLASS 8: N.A. NET ORDERS January '4 - April '11 (Not SA) 6 Units (s) Mexico/Export % Share Mexico & Export Share (Right Axis) Exports Mexico TOTAL CLASS 8: N.A. BACKLOG & BL/BU RATIO January '4 - April '11 (Not Seasonally Adjusted) Units (s) BACKLOG BL/BU Ratio (Months) ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright BL/BU RATIO (Right Axis) ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright

25 Also On Fire Units (s) TOTAL TRAILERS: NET ORDERS January '4 - March '11 NET ORDERS: Actual & Seasonally Adjusted 25 2 TOTAL TRAILERS BACKLOG & BACKLOG/BUILD RATIO January '4 - March ' ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright Units (s) BACKLOG: Acutal & SA BL/BU RATIO (Right Axis) BL/BU Ratio (Months) ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright

26 Warming Trend TOTAL CLASSES 5-7: N.A. NET ORDERS January '4 - April '11 (Not Seasonally Adjusted) 45 Units (s) TOTAL CL. 5-7: N.A. BACKLOG & BL/BU RATIO January '4 - April '11 (Not Seasonally Adjusted) Units (s) BL/BU Ratio (Months) 15 BACKLOG ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright BL/BU RATIO (Right Axis) ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright

27 BROAD-BASED (Data through April 211, annualized) Class 8 Orders U.S. (s) Canada (s) Mexico (s) Exports (s) Tot NA (s) NA SAAR Past Past Past April

28 N.A. Class 8 Production Units (Thousands) '6 '7 '8 '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 Truck: Daycab Truck: Sleeper Tractor: Daycab Tractor: Sleeper ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright U.S. TRAILER FACTORY SHIPMENTS Orders (s) Dry Vans Reefer Vans Flatbeds Other Trailers Total Trailers Other Trailers Flatbeds Reefer Vans Dry Vans ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright ACT Research Co., LLC, Copyright 2

29 N.A. Classes 5-7 Order Distribution (Data through April 211, annualized) Classes 5-7 Orders Truck (s) Bus (s) RV (s) Total (s) Past 12 Mo Past 6 (AR) Past 3 (AR) April Apr. (SAAR)

30 Housing Starts vs. Cl 5-7 Truck Sales Y/Y % Change of SAAR 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% -6% -8% Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-2 Apr-2 Jul-2 Oct-2 Jan-3 Apr-3 Jul-3 Oct-3 Jan-4 Apr-4 Jul-4 Oct-4 Jan-5 Apr-5 Jul-5 Oct-5 Jan-6 Apr-6 Jul-6 Oct-6 Jan-7 Apr-7 Jul-7 Oct-7 Jan-8 Apr-8 Jul-8 Oct-8 Jan-9 Apr-9 Jul-9 Oct-9 Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan-11 Apr-11 Source: ACT Research Co., LLC, US DOC Census Bureau HOUST CL 5-7 TRUCK RS Poly. (HOUST) Poly. (CL 5-7 TRUCK RS) 3

31 Add 25k to Forecasts - Probably N.A. Classes 5-7 Production Units (Thousands) '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 ' '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 31

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