Automotive Industry Review Dennis DesRosiers March 8, 2011

Transcription

1 Automotive Industry Review Dennis DesRosiers March 8,

2 Forecasting the North American Market requires two separate Analysis First, is to calculate structural demand or as some may call it Long Term Trend Line demand following are some important considerations: Scrappage rates or replacement demand Age structure of the vehicles on the road Vehicle Usage Build quality/technology Expected Useful Life The state of repair of the vehicle Parc Driving age population Age structure of the population Immigration policy and trends Vehicle ownership levels or the penetration of vehicles into Society The cost of ownership Attitude towards vehicles Household structure family formation The types of vehicles available to consumers Transportation Infrastructure etc

3 North American Vehicle Sales (thousands of vehicle) 25,000 20,000 Long Term Trend Line Demand is positive but has fallen to below 1 percent per year even with significant overbuying the last decade. Trend Demand 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Source: DesRosiers Automotive Consultants Inc.

4 Vehicle Scrappage as a percent of Units in Operation North America % U.S. Data Only 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% Better built vehicles (especially materials) has slowed scrappage to about 5 percent per year fortunately there are a lot of vehicles in operation 2.0% The age structure of vehicles on the road can be positive for scrappage The amount of driving is a key issue and with high gas prices this is negative for scrappage Source: DesRosiers Automotive Consultants Inc., Polk

5 Expected Useful Life of Vehicles UNITS IN OPERATION MILLIONS EXPECTED USEFUL LIFE KILOMETRES ,567, , ,748, ,580 % CHANGE 47.6% 11.9% ,516, ,081 % CHANGE 34.2% 25.7% ,940, ,370 % CHANGE 24.2% 23.1% ,317, ,573 % CHANGE 17.6% 11.1% Forecast 286,834, ,036 % CHANGE 11.9% 15.9% Expected useful life of a vehicle is up substantially and this puts downward pressure on new vehicle sales. Source: DesRosiers Automotive Consultants Inc.

6 300 Units in Operation, North America (millions of light vehicles) Trend line growth There are currently 280 million Vehicles in Operation so 5 % replacement demand translates into about 14 million units per year of trend line demand. 6 Source: DesRosiers Automotive Consultants Inc.

7 Driving Age Population, North America (millions of people, age 16+) Trend line growth Growth in Driving Age Population remains positive and adds another 1.5 to 2.0 million units of demand to long term growth Source: DesRosiers Automotive Consultants Inc.

8 Vehicles per Driving Age Population, North America 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% (Percentage of population, age 16+) This is the most difficult variable to call since the US is De-fleeting there is some growth in Canada and significant potential for Mexico but a potential that has never been realized. If long term trends continue it adds up to about 2 million units of long term trend demand but any reversal would reduce demand by millions. Source: DesRosiers Automotive Consultants Inc.

9 Expect a Long Term LEAN New Vehicle Market from a trend line perspective Most factors affecting long term trend line demand in North America are negative or only slightly positive vehicles are better built and lasting longer, driving age population is slowing, Mexican and Canadian vehicle ownership is growing but NOT in the US which is beginning to DE-FLEET. Trend line demand has fallen to less than 1 percent per year

10 25,000 North American Vehicle Sales (thousands of vehicle) Trend Demand 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Source: DesRosiers Automotive Consultants Inc. 10

11 Forecasting the North American Market requires two separate Analysis The second step is to estimate what we call Cyclical demand or in other words the economic factors that leads to the market running above or below trend line demand. Key variables include: Employment/Unemployment If you have a job in N.A. you need a vehicle Real Income growth affordability issues Interest rates since 90 percent of vehicles are financed The wealth effect best example is house prices but equity markets are also an important element Consumer Confidence New product Introductions OEM incentive programs Ability for any OEM to actually get product allocated for the North American market

12 Cyclical Issues devastated the market in 2008/9 and are still prevalent today Almost all factors that determine whether the market runs above or below long term trend demand are negative. Unemployment is stubbornly high Real income growth is stagnant Interest rates can t go lower and are more likely to go higher House prices are stable at best but down radically from three years ago Consumer confidence has not recovered Some growth in new vehicle introductions but not enough to offset the negatives from the other variables.

13 Unemployment Rate (US and Canada) % 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% High Unemployment is costing the market 2 to 3 million units per Year Source: BEA, Statistics Canada

14 Real Disposable Personal Income Growth USA 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Income is closely tied to employment but real income growth is below long term potential and costing the market another 1 to 2 million units per year Source: Company Data, Credit Suisse

15 18.0% Fed Funds Rate % 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Low interest rates have been positive for demand but can t get any lower and are more likely to head higher within a year or two. When they head higher it will cost the market a million or more sales per year. Source: BEA

16 12.0% U.S. Home Price Index, YOY % Change % 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% Source: FHFA to 4 million Americans per year mortgaged their home to buy a vehicle and there is virtually no ability to do this today and in the foreseeable future

17 Canadian Index of Consumer Confidence and Light Vehicle Sales ( Percentage change February Tracking) 50.0% Vehicle Sales Confidence 50.0% 40.0% 40.0% 30.0% 30.0% Light Vehicle Sales 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% Index of Consumer Attitudes -40.0% -40.0% -50.0% '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 YTD 11 Calendar Year Source: DesRosiers Automotive Consultants Inc., The Conference Board of Canada -50.0% 17

18 New Model Launches by Model Year e 2012e 2013e 2014e Model Year

19 North American Light Vehicle Sales: SAAR Monthly ,000,000 SAAR 6 Mo. Trailing Average 20,000,000 15,000,000 Units 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N Sales began to fall in 2006 and fell off a cliff in the fall of 2008 with only a modest recovery to date in 2010

20 North American Light Vehicle Sales: SAAR Monthly ,000,000 SAAR 6 Mo. Trailing Average 18,000,000 16,000,000 14,000,000 12,000,000 Units 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D The hope for a steady recovery in NA sales has NOT materialized although they are up from the bottom of the cycle in Feb 2009

21 Cyclical Issues are pushing the market well below trend line demand and it will remain below for quite some time The market has recovered slightly from its low in 2009 but remains about 3 to 4 million units below trend line demand in 2010 They will improve over the next 3-4 years so that is positive but will still remain below trend line demand until Consumers will buy fewer vehicles this decade than last decade 21

22 25,000 North American Vehicle Sales (thousands of vehicle) Trend Demand 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Source: DesRosiers Automotive Consultants Inc. 22

23 North American Light Vehicle Sales (Structural Demand Table) TOTAL VEHICLE TOTAL DRIVING AGE VEHICLES PER VEHICLE USAGE UNITS IN POPULATION DRIVING AGE SALES BILLIONS OF OPERATION MILLIONS POPULATION UNITS KILOMETRES ,500,717 15,556 88,567, % ,695,663 24, ,748, % Percent Change 37.9% 54.8% 47.6% 22.2% ,515,567 32, ,516, % Percent Change 6.9% 33.6% 34.2% 19.4% ,305,208 43, ,940, % Percent Change 9.7% 36.2% 24.2% 15.4% ,318,225 53, ,317, % Percent Change 12.6% 22.7% 17.6% 15.3% F 177,334,295 59, ,347, % Percent Change -5.8% 10.1% 11.7% 12.9% This will be a difficult decade for vehicle sales in North America but despite the leanness of the market consumers will still buy a significant volume of vehicles Source: DesRosiers Automotive Consultants Inc.

24 North American Light Vehicle Sales vs. Production TOTAL TOTAL PRODUCTION VEHICLE VEHICLE TO SALES SALES PRODUCTION RATIO UNITS UNITS ,500, ,331, % ,695, ,917, % % CHANGE 37.9% 27.2% ,515, ,272, % % CHANGE 6.9% -6.7% ,305, ,297, % % CHANGE 9.7% 22.5% ,318, ,922, % % CHANGE 12.6% 3.1% Forecast 177,334, ,674, % % CHANGE -5.8% -8.7% Vehicle production under performs vehicle sales due to increased import penetration led by European and Asian vehicles in the near term. China and others towards the end of the decade Source: DesRosiers Automotive Consultants Inc.

25 Questions? Dennis DesRosiers DesRosiers Automotive Consultants Inc. 80 Fulton Way, Suite 101 Richmond Hill, Ontario t: f: e: 25