N.A. Classes 5-8 Vehicles

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1 Americas Commercial Transportation Research Co., LLC COMMERCIAL VEHICLES State of the Industry N.A. Classes -8 Vehicles May & YTD 1 Data Published June 17, 1 Contributor to Blue Chip Economic Indicators and WSJ Economic Forecast Panel State of the Industry: N.A. Classes -8 Vehicles is published monthly by Americas Commercial Transportation Research Company, LLC (ACT), Ray Boll Blvd., Columbus, IN 7. Phone: , Fax: , trucks@actresearch.net Copyright 1 by ACT with all rights reserved. Reproduction, copying, or publication of this report in whole or part is not permitted without prior approval. This document is for internal use only. Questions and subscription requests should be directed to K.W. Vieth, Publisher.

2 State of the Industry: N.A. Classes -8 Vehicles Contents Page(s) Summary Observations... 1 Truck & Bus Market Statistics Current Month Year to Date Current Month versus Past Month Current Month versus Same Month One Year Ago Current Months versus Same Months One Year Ago Year to Date versus Year to Date One Year Ago Select Periods, Annualized Backlog/Diesel Fuel Prices... 9 Build Timing of Units in Backlog Gasoline, Diesel, & Spot Crude Oil Prices Class and 6-7 Graphs Class Net Orders Class Backlog & BL/BU Ratio Class Inventory/Retail Sales Ratio Classes 6-7 Net Orders Classes 6-7 Backlog & BL/BU Ratio Classes 6-7 Inventory/Retail Sales Ratio N.A. Truck OEMs Classes -7 Build Plans Actual and Forecast Build by Month & Quarter Total Class 8 Graphs Net Orders Cancellation Rate N.A. Build Net Orders & Build Backlog & BL/BU Ratio Inventory/Retail Sales Ratio Class 8 Backlog Analysis: Build Plan Slots Filled/Unfilled Next 6 Months Retail Sales Total Class 8 Build per Day Comparison Build Plan Months from Actual N.A. Truck OEMs Class 8 Build Plans Actual and Forecast Build by Month & Quarter BUILD LOCATION: The geography of a built unit reflects the market for which it is destined, NOT the country in which the actual production takes place. Current N.A. OEM build occurs in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. June 1 Classes -8 Vehicles

3 STATE OF THE INDUSTRY: NORTH AMERICAN CLASSES -8 VEHICLES Amid an economy sending mixed signals, the NA Class 8 market performed to expectations in May. Part of the reason for disappointment in the broader economy has its genesis in slowing growth as a result of very tough comparisons. Class 8 net orders are a great case in point. Also as an example, DAT Trendlines dry van spot rates (excluding fuel surcharges) were only % above May 1. On average, rates were 1% stronger y/y for all of 1. Those who assume the status quo are bound to have their hopes thwarted. CLASS 8: Despite a lackluster April, Class 8 orders were on the mark in May. Net orders totaled,8 units. While focusing on the order intake of the past may bring feelings of euphoria, a glance into near term expectations is sobering and much more instructive. Historical order placement practices suggest orders for the next four months will be 1%-% below average. Putting a hard number on it, intake is likely to be below, units, bottoming around 1, trucks during the order drought in July and August. CANCELLATIONS: New orders continue to come from truckers who have genuine reasons to purchase new trucks. As such, cancellations have remained in a very tight band through the course of the past three quarters. Excepting two forays into higher territory in seven of the past nine months, cancellations have remained in a narrow band ranging 1.% to 1.% of backlog. BACKLOG: Backlogs in May slipped for the third month, down 8, from April and,87 below the February top. The backlog was,1 units higher than the May 1 reading. A declining backlog in light of a sustained per day build rate reduced the backlog/build ratio to.6 months. Based on the order guidance above and expected production rates, this logical progression is likely to continue until late Q or early Q. BL ANALYSIS: This month s backlog analysis showed that April orders considerably narrowed the count of available build slots for the rest of 1. Based on ACT s 8, North American build outlook, roughly 7, open slots remain open from June to December, as of the end of April. That is down from 6, at end of April. As we have previously pointed out, carriers who failed to anticipate and plan for their needs may be hard pressed to get a truck when they need it. BUILD: OEMs once again increased output to meet customer demand, perpetuating the positive trend that started in December 1. At 1, upd in May, build eclipsed the peak of the post-9 recovery and expansion cycle, set in December 11 (1,16 upd). OEM build plans for the remainder of the year show no sign of letting up. SALES & INVENTORY: Class 8 retail sales rose on an actual basis in May to 6,697 units and a virtually indistinguishable seasonally adjusted 6,689 units. In the case of the seasonal result, May s retail sales volume was tied for the second best in two years. Through YTD May, sales have occurred at a 7, unit SAAR, which bodes well for the forecast since the strongest sales months of the year are yet to come. Build above the level of sales added over 1,6 units to Class 8 inventories, which rose for the eighteenth consecutive month to 67,18 units in May. Despite the bigger inventory, a stronger per day sales rate and one less sales day during the month allowed the IN/RS ratio to fall days to days/. months at the end of May. CLASSES, 6-7: In May, Classes -7 net orders bucked historical seasonal expectations, which called for moderate slowing. A total of 19,8 orders were placed during May. The intake resulted in a nearly 11% sequential gain, but more importantly, it was % higher than May 1. Through the first five months of 1, customers have demanded about % more vehicles relative to the same period a year ago. On a SAAR basis, orders are flowing in at a little over a, unit pace, very much in line with expectations. Also on the competitive landscape front, General Motors announced its return to the commercial vehicle market. They will partner with Isuzu in a joint venture reminiscent of the long-standing relationship which ended in 8 amid GM s need to generate cash to support its automotive business. For now, they will participate in the Class - market. No mention has been made of reviving the Classes 6-7 product line at this point. BACKLOG & BUILD: May saw a bit of a slowdown in production, which can be attributed, at least in part, to the discontinuation of Blue Diamond build. Ford and Navistar have officially ended their joint venture and Ford is moving the manufacturing operation from Mexico to Ohio. At 96 upd, days generated build of 19,7 units during the month. Combining softer build and orders yielded a Classes -7 backlog of 6,69 units. Thanks to the progress the segment has been making, that volume represents an 11% y/y gain in unbuilt orders. Coupling the smaller backlog with May s above trend per day build rate, the BL/BU ratio rose to.8 months. INVENTORY & RETAIL SALES: Rounding out the list of metrics that reversed April s slowing, Classes -7 retail sales posted a % m/m gain to 18,1 units in May. Higher build than sales added about 1, units to inventory, bringing the count to 9,1 units and pegging the IN/RS ratio at.7 months, near the bottom of the desired. to. month target range. June 1 Classes -8 Vehicles Page 1

4 TRUCK, BUS, and RV INDUSTRY MANAGEMENT STATISTICS* NORTH AMERICA May 1 CURRENT MONTH STATISTICS Cl. Cl. Cl. Cl. Cl. Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 STEP STEP TRACTOR TRACTOR TRUCK TRUCK VARIABLE TRUCK BUS RV VAN TOTAL TRUCK BUS RV VAN TOTAL SLEEPER DAY CAB SLEEPER DAY CAB OTHER TOTAL. Backlog 1, ,8 16,67 6,17 1,77 1, 1,779,19 9,1,79 8,81 168,69. Build 6, ,6 6,91,6 1,16 11,91 1,1 7,79 6 6,7 1 8,6. Inventory 1, ,69,77 7, ,61 8,86 1,9 87, ,18. New Orders 7, ,787 6,1,7 1, 1, 1,9 11,67 6,11 69, 8,8. Orders Cancel , ,17. Net Orders 7, ,6,81,6 1,1 1, 11,86 1,11,7,986 1,. Retail Sales 6, ,177 6,,86 1,8 7 1,9 1,61 6,78 1, ,697 MEMO: Sales of Japanese Imports MONTHLY PERFORMANCE: May Build Days 1 Order/Sales Days. Build: units/day ,. Net Orders: un/dy Retail Sales:un/dy ,71. Orders Cancel: % BL.%.%.%.%.% 1.6% 1.9%.%.1% 1.6% 1.% 1.%.6% 1.9%.7% 1.%. rate in months** rate in months** *Actual data not seasonally adjusted. ** Backlog to Build and Inventory to Retail Sales Ratios are normalized to 1 days. Class 8 Other includes Autocar, Oshkosh, and Terex Advance Mixer. NOTE: Data supplied for your internal use only. External distribution is not permitted without prior approval. Electronic or other re-release of classes -8 vehicle statistics is not authorized except in written summaries (no data tables) supporting the business of the subscribing SOI company. ACT Research Co., LLC must be creditied as the data source. June 1 Classes -8 Vehicles Page

5 TRUCK, BUS, and RV INDUSTRY MANAGEMENT STATISTICS* NORTH AMERICA May 1 YEAR-TO-DATE STATISTICS Cl. Cl. Cl. Cl. Cl. Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 STEP STEP TRACTOR TRACTOR TRUCK TRUCK VARIABLE TRUCK BUS RV VAN TOTAL TRUCK BUS RV VAN TOTAL SLEEPER DAY CAB SLEEPER DAY CAB OTHER TOTAL. Backlog 1, ,8 16,67 6,17 1,77 1, 1,779,19 9,1,79 8,81 168,69. Build, , 7,61, 1,,86 1,7 6, 68,6,8 68 1,81 1,89 17,6. Inventory 1, ,69,77 7, ,61 8,86 1,9 87, ,18. New Orders, ,181 1,796,69 8,61 18,69,77,79 66,16 7,96 8,7 1,777 1,986 18,68. Orders Cancel 1, ,7,17 1, ,1 7,66,196 7,7 9 1,6. Net Orders 1, ,181 1,796,,96 17,,69,78 61,8 67,6,8 8 9,7 1,89 1,7. Retail Sales 8,87 1,1 788,9,7 1,69,68 1,6,7 6,, ,699 1,89 1,11 MEMO: Sales of Japanese Imports,,8 YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE: May 1 Build Days 16 Order/Sales Days. Build: units/day ,. Net Orders: un/dy ,71. Retail Sales:un/dy ,1. Orders Cancel: % BL 9.8% 1.9%.%.% 8.6% 11.6% 1.% 1.8%.1% 1.7% 8.% 7.%.% 8.6% 17.1% 8.1%. rate in months** rate in months** *Actual data not seasonally adjusted. ** Backlog to Build and Inventory to Retail Sales Ratios are normalized to 1 days. Class 8 Other includes Autocar, Oshkosh, and Terex Advance Mixer. NOTE: Data supplied for your internal use only. External distribution is not permitted without prior approval. Electronic or other re-release of classes -8 vehicle statistics is not authorized except in written summaries (no data tables) supporting the business of the subscribing SOI company. ACT Research Co., LLC must be creditied as the data source. June 1 Classes -8 Vehicles Page

6 UNIT & PERCENT CHANGE: CURRENT MONTH VS. PAST MONTH TRUCK, BUS, and RV INDUSTRY MANAGEMENT STATISTICS* NORTH AMERICA May 1 Cl. Cl. Cl. Cl. Cl. Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 STEP STEP TRACTOR TRACTOR TRUCK TRUCK TRUCK BUS RV VAN TOTAL TRUCK BUS RV VAN TOTAL SLEEPER DAY CAB SLEEPER DAY CAB OTHER TOTAL BACKLOG: a.current MO. 1, ,8 16,67 6,17 1,77 1, 1,779,19 9,1,79 8,81 168,69 b.past MO. 1, ,18 7,6 1,76 1,77 1,8,86 99,,67 1,8 177,17 UNIT CHANGE a-b 6-1,19 (1,8) 11 1 (671) (,18) (1,88) - (,97) - (8,) % CHANGE.%.%.% 6.% 7.% -.6%.1%.7% 1.% -1.6% -.% -.%.% -7.7%.% -.8% BUILD: a.current MO. 6, ,6 6,91,6 1,16 11,91 1,1 7,79 6 6,7 1 8,6 b.past MO. 6,8 18 7, 8,7,6 1,16 8 1,687 1,67 7,7 8 7,17 8 9,11 UNIT CHANGE a-b (1,81) 6 () (16) (1,766) (6) (18) (76) 1 (8) % CHANGE.6%.%.7% 8.% 1.% -.7% 1.9% -.% -.% -1.9% -.%.6% -.% -1.8%.% -1.6% INVENTORY: a.current MO. 1, ,69,77 7, ,61 8,86 1,9 87, ,18 b.past MO. 1, ,7,6 6,61 6 9,9 7,7 1,67 87,8 17 6,69 UNIT CHANGE a-b 6 () 9 (8) , (8) 11-1,69 % CHANGE 1.8% -.9% 17.% -.% 1.% 1.7% 9.6% 16.% 11.%.6%.%.% -.%.1%.%.% NET ORDERS: a.current MO. 7, ,6,81,6 1,1 1, 11,86 1,11,7,986 1, b.past MO. 6, ,7,96,6 1,8 1 1,611 1,18,6 9, 9,8 UNIT CHANGE a-b ,19 (79) (1,77) 1 (1) (6) 1 (1,9) % CHANGE 9.%.% 6.8% 91.1% 16.% 7.% -18.% 1.9% 9.% 7.% -1.% 6.% -.% -1.%.% -8.6% CANCELLATION RATE: a.current MO..1% 6.%.%.%.7% 6.6%.7%.%.1%.% 1.% 9.% 1.7% 1.1%.8% 1.1% b.past MO..% 6.%.%.%.8% 1.% 8.1%.%.% 8.7% 11.% 11.% 1.% 7.%.7% 1.% PP CHANGE (.1) (.7) (.) (.8).1 (.) (1.) (1.9) (.) RETAIL SALES: a.current MO. 6, ,177 6,,86 1,8 7 1,9 1,61 6,78 1, ,697 b.past MO. 6, ,688 7,,6 1,17 11, 1,97 6,76 1,919 8,69 UNIT CHANGE a-b 9 () (7) 7 89 (6) 6 (19) 7 () 66 8 () () 1 1, % CHANGE 6.9% -11.6% -.% 7.% 7.% -8.% 9.% -9.% 1.% -.%.1% 8.1% -9.% -.9%.%.9% *Actual data not seasonally adjusted. June 1 Classes -8 Vehicles Page

7 TRUCK, BUS, and RV INDUSTRY MANAGEMENT STATISTICS* NORTH AMERICA May 1 UNIT & PERCENT CHANGE: CURRENT MONTH VS. SAME MONTH ONE YEAR AGO Cl. Cl. Cl. Cl. Cl. Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 STEP STEP TRACTOR TRACTOR TRUCK TRUCK TRUCK BUS RV VAN TOTAL TRUCK BUS RV VAN TOTAL SLEEPER DAY CAB SLEEPER DAY CAB OTHER TOTAL BACKLOG: a.current MO. 1, ,8 16,67 6,17 1,77 1, 1,779,19 9,1,79 8,81 168,69 b.same 1 YR. AGO 1, , 1,78,79 9,18, 979,7 68,11 9, , ,69 UNIT CHANGE a-b 1,11 (1) (9) 87,17 1,91 () 8,18 6,81 1,9 (96) 9, -, % CHANGE 8.% -68.% -.% 1.8%.1% 1.6% 17.% -.% 81.7% 1.8% 9.%.% -8.%.7%.%.% BUILD: a.current MO. 6, ,6 6,91,6 1,16 11,91 1,1 7,79 6 6,7 1 8,6 b.same 1 YR. AGO, ,67 7,96, ,79 1, 6,61 1,1,1 UNIT CHANGE a-b 1,1 () 99 (117) 1,69 (1,) 8 (68), (19) 7 11,9 % CHANGE 19.% -.8% 6.% -9.8% 17.1% -1.%.% 7.% 9.% -.% 17.8% 9.6% -7.% 1.% 7.% 1.1% INVENTORY: a.current MO. 1, ,69,77 7, ,61 8,86 1,9 87, ,18 b.same 1 YR. AGO 1, ,9, 6,86 6 7,897,7 9,91 71,1 17,991 UNIT CHANGE a-b 67 (6) , 6 1,6 8,9,7 1,17-16,117 % CHANGE.7% -9.%.9% 9.%.%.8%.8%.% 17.7% 19.9% 1.7%.% 17.%.7%.% 1.6% NET ORDERS: a.current MO. 7, ,6,81,6 1,1 1, 11,86 1,11,7,986 1, b.same 1 YR. AGO, ,6 6,88,7 9 1,8 1, 7, 187 6,1 6,11 UNIT CHANGE a-b,7 (71) 11 6,999 (687) (6) 9 1, 86 (1,89) (1,6) (1) (,) 11 (,8) % CHANGE.% -7.% 7.% 9.8%.9% -1.6% -1.%.1% 1.%.% -1.% -.8% -71.1% -6.1% 7.% -1.% CANCELLATION RATE: a.current MO..1% 6.%.%.%.7% 6.6%.7%.%.1%.% 1.% 9.% 1.7% 1.1%.8% 1.1% b.same 1 YR. AGO.% 1.9%.%.%.% 7.% 8.8%.%.% 7.% 8.%.7% 18.7%.%.% 6.% PP CHANGE (.). - - (.6) (.9) (.1) (.7).1 (.) RETAIL SALES: a.current MO. 6, ,177 6,,86 1,8 7 1,9 1,61 6,78 1, ,697 b.same 1 YR. AGO, ,86 6,,77 1, 78 1,99 11,8 6,66 19,,77 UNIT CHANGE a-b 1,1 (18) (9) (16) (6) 197 (6),6 18 (7) 16 11,9 % CHANGE 19.8% -.1% -.% -8.% 1.7% 1.8%.% -8.1%.1% -.1%.7% 1.9% -.8%.% 7.% 1.% *Actual data not seasonally adjusted. June 1 Classes -8 Vehicles Page

8 TRUCK, BUS, and RV INDUSTRY MANAGEMENT STATISTICS* NORTH AMERICA May 1 UNIT & PERCENT CHANGE: CURRENT MONTHS VS. SAME MONTHS ONE YEAR AGO Cl. Cl. Cl. Cl. Cl. Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 STEP STEP TRACTOR TRACTOR TRUCK TRUCK TRUCK BUS RV VAN TOTAL TRUCK BUS RV VAN TOTAL SLEEPER DAY CAB SLEEPER DAY CAB OTHER TOTAL BACKLOG: a.current MO. 1, ,8 16,67 6,17 1,77 1, 1,779,19 9,1,79 8,81 168,69 b.same 1 YR. AGO 1, , 1,78,79 9,18, 979,7 68,11 9, , ,69 UNIT CHANGE a-b 1,11 (1) (9) 87,17 1,91 () 8,18 6,81 1,9 (96) 9, -, % CHANGE 8.% -68.% -.% 1.8%.1% 1.6% 17.% -.% 81.7% 1.8% 9.%.% -8.%.7%.%.% BUILD: a.current MO. 1, ,7,1 9,,61 1,8,,, 78,6 1,8 87,199 b.same 1 YR. AGO 18,9 1,11 67,,66 9,7,67 1,1 9,6,97 19,71 17, 1,168 7,9 UNIT CHANGE a-b,77 (11) (8) (167), (1) (9) 88 9,6,69 (76), ,8 % CHANGE 1.1% -.7% -.7% -6.% 1.6% 1.%.1% -1.% -6.% 1.% 7.8% 1.6% -9.8% 16.6% 1.%.% INVENTORY: a.current MO. 1, ,69,77 7, ,61 8,86 1,9 87, ,18 b.same 1 YR. AGO 1, ,9, 6,86 6 7,897,7 9,91 71,1 17,991 UNIT CHANGE a-b 67 (6) , 6 1,6 8,9,7 1,17-16,117 % CHANGE.7% -9.%.9% 9.%.%.8%.8%.% 17.7% 19.9% 1.7%.% 17.%.7%.% 1.6% NET ORDERS: a.current MO., ,61, 16,99 1,19,8 1,6,8,81 16,86 9 1,981 1,87 68,8 b.same 1 YR. AGO 18,7 1,7 61,88 1,796 1,61,6 9 6,9 7,19,7 7 18,6 1,168 78, UNIT CHANGE a-b,6 (1) (69) 1,9, (,81) 1,78 (1) 1, (,1) (1,71) (,18) (68) (,6) 119 (1,19) % CHANGE 19.7% -9.1% -7.%.6%.9% -.% 1.9% -.% 8.% -.6% -.6% -.% -9.% -19.6% 1.% -1.9% CANCELLATION RATE: a.current MO..1% 6.%.%.%.7% 9.9%.7%.7%.1% 7.% 11.% 8.1% 8.1% 9.8%.7% 1.% b.same 1 YR. AGO.%.1%.%.%.% 6.% 8.%.%.% 6.% 7.7%.% 7.%.8%.8%.9% PP CHANGE (.). - (.) (.).7 (.) (.1). RETAIL SALES: a.current MO. 19, ,996 1,8 8,,8 1,,86 9,8 19, ,6 1,8 78, b.same 1 YR. AGO 17, ,69 78,7,81 7,819,69 1,19,8, 18,88 9 1,9 1,168 68,68 UNIT CHANGE a-b 1,66 (68) (1,16) (1) (1,11) (18) 7,1 69 (8) 1, ,79 % CHANGE 9.1% -.% -6.% -1.1%.%.8% 6.7% -7.9% -1.1%.1%.8%.7% -18.% 1.8% 1.% 1.% *Actual data not seasonally adjusted. June 1 Classes -8 Vehicles Page 6

9 TRUCK, BUS, and RV INDUSTRY MANAGEMENT STATISTICS* NORTH AMERICA May 1 UNIT & PERCENT CHANGE: YEAR-TO-DATE VS. YEAR-TO-DATE ONE YEAR AGO Cl. Cl. Cl. Cl. Cl. Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 STEP STEP TRACTOR TRACTOR TRUCK TRUCK TRUCK BUS RV VAN TOTAL TRUCK BUS RV VAN TOTAL SLEEPER DAY CAB SLEEPER DAY CAB OTHER TOTAL BACKLOG: a.current MO. 1, ,8 16,67 6,17 1,77 1, 1,779,19 9,1,79 8,81 168,69 b.same 1 YR. AGO 1, , 1,78,79 9,18, 979,7 68,11 9, , ,69 UNIT CHANGE a-b 1,11 (1) (9) 87,17 1,91 () 8,18 6,81 1,9 (96) 9, -, % CHANGE 8.% -68.% -.% 1.8%.1% 1.6% 17.% -.% 81.7% 1.8% 9.%.% -8.%.7%.%.% BUILD: a.current YTD, , 7,61, 1,,86 1,7 6, 68,6,8 68 1,81 1,89 17,6 b.past YTD 7, ,789 1,6 1, 8,76 1,7,98,1 6,69,9 1,89 9 7,816 1,79 11,1 UNIT CHANGE a-b,1 (17) (9) (71) 1,19, (7), 1,71,6 (6), ,6 % CHANGE 9.% -.% -1.% -.%.% 11.1% 1.%.7% -19.% 7.1% 8.8% 9.% -7.% 1.% 9.% 18.8% INVENTORY: a.current MO. 1, ,69,77 7, ,61 8,86 1,9 87, ,18 b.same 1 YR. AGO 1, ,9, 6,86 6 7,897,7 9,91 71,1 17,991 UNIT CHANGE a-b 67 (6) , 6 1,6 8,9,7 1,17-16,117 % CHANGE.7% -9.%.9% 9.%.%.8%.8%.% 17.7% 19.9% 1.7%.% 17.%.7%.% 1.6% NET ORDERS: a.current YTD 1, ,181 1,796,,96 17,,69,78 61,8 67,6,8 8 9,7 1,89 1,7 b.past YTD 7,7, 1,776 1,688 8,88 1,79,8 1,19 6,6 7, 7,91 1,1 1,9 1,7 1, UNIT CHANGE a-b,7 (179) (1,9), (,9),9 (1) 1,9 1,769 (,7) (1,) (796) (,66) 16 (7,17) % CHANGE 1.6% -.% -6.8% 1.1% 8.% -6.%.% -.1% 1.6%.9% -.8% -.1% -7.8% -8.% 9.% -.% CANCELLATION RATE: a.current YTD.% 6.%.%.%.9% 7.8% 6.%.9%.% 6.% 1.% 8.%.9% 7.8%.7% 9.% b.past YTD.%.%.%.8%.7%.% 8.7%.%.%.8% 6.9%.%.%.9%.8%.6% PP CHANGE (1.1).8 - (.8) (.8). (.7) (.1).6 RETAIL SALES: a.current MO. 8,87 1,1 788,9,7 1,69,68 1,6,7 6,, ,699 1,89 1,11 b.same 1 YR. AGO 6,8 9,8 1,18,1, 11,969 6,1,8,7 8,,16 7,6 1,79 1, UNIT CHANGE a-b,9 (1) (981) (7) 9,19 66 (886) (9) 1,699 1,,98 (7), ,879 % CHANGE 9.% -9.% -7.1% -.%.1% 7.%.% -1.6% -19.%.%.% 7.9% -1.% 9.7% 9.% 16.% *Actual data not seasonally adjusted. June 1 Classes -8 Vehicles Page 7

10 TRUCK, BUS, and RV INDUSTRY MANAGEMENT STATISTICS* NORTH AMERICA May 1 SELECT PERIODS: ANNUALIZED Cl. Cl. Cl. Cl. Cl. Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 6-7 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 Cl. 8 STEP STEP TRACTOR TRACTOR TRUCK TRUCK TRUCK BUS RV VAN TOTAL TRUCK BUS RV VAN TOTAL SLEEPER DAY CAB SLEEPER DAY CAB OTHER TOTAL BACKLOG**:. CURRENT MO. 1, ,8 16,67 6,17 1,77 1, 1,779,19 9,1,79 8,81 168,69. MO AGO 1, ,111,661 8,71 1,788 1,676,96 1,7 9, 6, 189,1. 6 MO AGO 1, ,68 6,187 7,91 1, 81 6, 8, 7,8 9 6, 1,9. 1 MO AGO 1, , 1,78,79 9,18, 979,7 68,11 9, , ,69 BUILD:. CURRENT MO. 8, 6,96,1 88, 8,96 9,91 1,9 6,6 1, 17,7 87, ,8 6,1,716. PAST MO. 8,196 6, 1,88 89,88 11,68 8,17 1,8,8 16,16 17,7 88, 1,11 8,8,1 8,796. PAST 6 MO. 7,8 78,8 1,71 78,9 11,79,68 1,188,9 1,66 1, 8,8 1,718 7,9,76 18,1. PAST 1 MO. 7,87 1,67, 79,97 98,6,96 1,868, 11,8 17,1 81,96,79 7,11,17 18,7 INVENTORY**:. CURRENT MO. 1, ,69,77 7, ,61 8,86 1,9 87, ,18. MO AGO 1, ,19,18, ,89,976 11,6 91 1,7 17 7,81. 6 MO AGO 1, ,1,, ,17,6 1, , 17 8,9. 1 MO AGO 1, ,9, 6,86 6 7,897,7 9,91 71,1 17,991 NET ORDERS:. CURRENT MO. 89,688 6,1 8, 11,68 69,61 9,91 1,8 1,8 16,6 1,9 66,8 68 7,8 6,1 6,96. PAST MO. 88, 6,88 6,6 98,88 67,98 8,6 1, 6, 16, 11,9 6, ,9,18 7,16. PAST 6 MO. 7,99 7,9,8 8,118 9,,88 1,9 6, 1,88 177,698 96, ,,8 7,. PAST 1 MO. 7,9 7,7,81 79,98 91,78 7,7 1,6,79 17, 188,68 9,9 1,79 8,,177 7,6 CANCELLATION RATE:. CURRENT MO..1% 6.%.%.%.7% 6.6%.7%.%.1%.% 1.% 9.% 1.7% 1.1%.8% 1.1%. PAST MO..1% 6.%.%.%.7% 9.9%.7%.7%.1% 7.% 11.% 8.1% 8.1% 9.8%.7% 1.%. PAST 6 MO..% 6.1%.%.%.1% 7.%.6%.7%.% 6.% 9.% 6.7%.8% 7.%.8% 8.1%. PAST 1 MO..% 7.%.%.%.1% 7.%.%.7%.% 6.% 8.1% 6.7%.% 6.%.8% 7.% RETAIL SALES:. CURRENT MO. 79,98 6,8,18 86,1 77,, 1,6 6,9 11,76 16, 81,8 1, 68, 6,1,6. PAST MO. 78,9,9, 8,98 87,16,7 1,8, 19,6 18, 78, 1,68 7,8,1 1,7. PAST 6 MO. 7,6,8, 77,99 86,8,18 1,716,766 1,7 18,8 8,1 1,8 67,1,76,6. PAST 1 MO. 7,9 79,9,6 79,9 8,8,7 1,97, 1,67 19,8 78,96 1,9 68,99,17,1 *Actual data not seasonally adjusted. ** Since BACKLOG and INVENTORY are non-additive,, 6, and 1 month data points are actuals. June 1 Classes -8 Vehicles Page 8

11 Build Timing of Units in Backlog as of May 1 1 Q'1 Q'1 Q'1 Q1'16 CLASS 8 YTD Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Beyond TOTAL BACKLOG DISTRIBUTION 1,9 7,811 61,667 8,18,79 168,69. Mix by scheduled build date 1.6%.% 6.6%.8%.8% Actual/OEM BUILD PLAN (pp 19) 17,6,8 88,7 8, Open build slots 9, 1,9, % Open.% 18.% 6.% While % of Q build slots remain open, only 18% of Q and 7% of Q are unbooked. In May 1, unfilled build slots were 1%, 1% and 8%, respectively, for the last quarters of the year. Diesel Fuel & Crude Oil Prices 1-1 (Week ) 1 1 WTIC: $/Bbl. Diesel: $/Gal. Diesel BRENT Source: EIA, ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 1 Diesel fuel prices, as well as Brent s crude oil prices, continue to trend upward, but remain low. Diesel has been less volatile than crude prices, down and up. June 1 Classes -8 Vehicles Page 9

12 TOTAL CLASS : N.A. NET ORDERS January '1 - May '1 1 Units (s) 9 8 Actual & 6 Mo. Avg ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 1 Class net orders, at 8,6 units in May, were 1, units higher than April and nearly, units above the same period in 1. TOTAL CLASS : N.A. BACKLOG & BL/BU RATIO January '1 - May '1 Units (s) BL/BU Ratio (Months) 1 BACKLOG BL/BU RATIO (Right Axis) ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 1 With May build and backlog rates both higher than April, the BL/BU ratio was unchanged at.1 months. June 1 Classes -8 Vehicles Page 1

13 TOTAL CLASS : N.A. INVENTORY/RETAIL SALES RATIO January '1 - May '1 Units (s) IN/RS Ratio (Months) 1 INVENTORY IN/RS RATIO (Right Axis) RETAIL SALES ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 1 Stronger retail sales coupled with slightly higher inventory led to a downward oscillation in the IN/RS ratio, which fell to. months in May from April s. months level. TOTAL CLASSES 6-7: N.A. NET ORDERS January '1 - May '1 18 Units (s) 16 1 Actual & 6 Mo. Avg ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 1 Classes 6-7 net orders reversed direction in May, gaining nearly 8 units and following two consecutive months of reductions. This was nearly 6 units higher than the same period in 1. June 1 Classes -8 Vehicles Page 11

14 TOTAL CL. 6-7: N.A. BACKLOG & BL/BU RATIO January '1 - May '1 Units (s) BACKLOG BL/BU Ratio (Months) BL/BU RATIO (Right Axis) ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 1 With drops in both build and backlog, the Classes 6-7 BL/BU ratio rose slightly to. months, from April s.1 months level. Units (s) TOTAL CLASSES 6-7: N.A. INVENTORY/RETAIL SALES RATIO January '1 - May '1 INVENTORY IN/RS Ratio (Months) RETAIL SALES IN/RS RATIO (Right Axis) ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 1 May s IN/RS ratio also saw an uptick, reaching.1 months from April s. months standing, amid softer retail sales and growing inventory levels. This is the ratio s highest reading in years. June 1 Classes -8 Vehicles Page 1

15 NORTH AMERICAN TRUCK OEMs' CLASSES -7 TRUCK AND SCHOOL/URBAN BUS BUILD PLANS: 1 SIX MONTH FORECASTS AND ACTUAL BUILD BY MONTH & QUARTER MAY 1 JAN FEB MAR QI APR MAY JUN QII JUL* AUG* SEP QIII OCT NOV DEC QIV YEAR CLASSES -7 BUILD: A A A A A A F F F F F F F F F F F TRUCK 1,89 1,6 17,67, 16,1 1,8 16, 6,96 1,1 1,7 1, 6,18 16,781 1,96 1,,181 18, SCHOOL/URBAN BUS,716,11,98 7,911,9,6,1 9,66,89,87,877 8,6,1,6,6 8,1,1 RECREATIONAL VEHICLE 1,6 1,6 1,9,67 1,7 1,18 1,9,1 1,9 1,6 1,,6 1,9 1, 1,8,9 17,677 TOTAL CLASSES -7 18,1 16,979,18 7,198,91 19,7,86 61, 19, 19,99 19,96 9,87 1,8 18,1 17,19 6,699,8 Days Units per day , PREVIOUS BUILD PLANS: TOTAL CLASS -7: MONTHS FROM ACTUAL 7 MONTHS ,6, ,19 6,699,8 6-16,97 19,68,9 18,9 18,,6 9,7 19,1 19,7 19,9 8,99 1, 18, ,1 17,18 19,78,6 19,6 18,8,76 9,81 19,6 19,7 19,869 9,8 1, ,1 17,6, 7,181 19,97 19,1 1,178 6,69 19,16 19,99 19,96 9, , 17,87,78 8,9 19,99 19,19 1,178 6,69 19, 19, ,8 18,7,987 7,9,11 19,19,766 6,777 19, ,6 18,7,8,6,11 19,8,86 61, ACTUAL 18,1 16,979,18 7,198,91 19, NOTE: A = actual build; F = forecast build plans. Data is not seasonally adjusted. "Most likely" adjustments are made by the editor. * Reflects factory shutdowns where applicable N.A. BUILD 1 1 Q1 Q Q Q YEAR Q1 Q Q Q YEAR CLASSES -7 TRUCKS,8,61 9,191 9,7 1,89 8,16,18,86,76 17,8 CL. -7 SCHOOL/URBAN BUS 7,76 9,11 8, 7,9, 8,1 9,7 9,679 8,97 6,1 CLASSES -7 RV (est.),9,8,7,1 1,8,187,61,8,19 17, TOTAL CLASSES -7,9,9 1, 1,9 1,99,88 9,1 7,781 7,1,681 BUILD DAYS BUILD PER DAY June 1 U.S. Trailers Page 1

16 1-1 - Units (s) Actual & 6 Mo. Avg. TOTAL CLASS 8: N.A. NET ORDERS Mexico & Export Share (Right Axis) January '1 - May '1 (Not SA) Exports Mexico Mexico/Export % Share ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 1 As expected, Class 8 net orders extended their cool down period in May. Directionally, orders should continue to slow in Q and Q before strength resumes in Q. % TOTAL CLASS 8: N.A. CANCELLATION RATE Expressed as a percentage of Backlog January '1 - May '1 Actual & 6 Mo. Avg ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 1 Despite over, cancellations in May, there is no cause for concern: Higher backlogs beget higher cancellations. The cancellation rate, at 1.% of backlog, remains tame. June 1 Classes -8 Vehicles Page 1

17 TOTAL CLASS 8: N.A. BUILD January '1 - May '1 Units (s) Y/Y % Change Actual & Seasonally Adjusted Y/Y% Chg. (right axis) ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 1 May s build, at 8,6 units and 1, upd, was down 6 units from April, but approximately, units above May 1. Units (s) TOTAL CLASS 8 NA: NET ORDERS (Trailing 1 Months) & BUILD January '1 - May '1 NET ORDERS: Trailing 1-month average 1 BUILD: Actual ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 1 Although they have yet to realign, the paths of build and the 1-month net order trend were virtually unchanged in May. June 1 Classes -8 Vehicles Page 1

18 TOTAL CLASS 8: N.A. BACKLOG & BL/BU RATIO January '1 - May ' Units (s) BACKLOG BL/BU RATIO (Right Axis) BL/BU Ratio (Months) ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 1 The BL/BU ratio continued its descent in May, reaching.6 months, as build was little changed and backlog fell. The ratio stood at 6.1 months in April, following March s 6.6 month reading. TOTAL CLASS 8: N.A. INVENTORY/RETAIL SALES RATIO January '1 - May '1 7 Units (s) IN/RS Ratio (Months) INVENTORY: Actual & SA RETAIL SALES: Actual & SA IN/RS RATIO (Right Axis) ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 1 Build above the level of retail sales added another 1,6 units to inventory. However, increasing retail sales mitigated the situation, reducing the IN/RS ratio to. months. June 1 Classes -8 Vehicles Page 16

19 17 Class 8 Backlog Analysis: Build Plan Slots Filled/Unfilled Next 6 Months Units (s) Unfilled Slots Filled slots Based on SOI: Class 8 OEM build plan ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 1 Approximately 9, build slots remain open in Q 1, with nearly 16, available in Q 1. The BL analysis can be found on the top of page 9 in the report. TOTAL CLASS 8: N.A. RETAIL SALES January '1 - May '1 Units (s) Y/Y % Change 1 1 Actual & Seasonally Adjusted Y/Y % Chg. (Right Axis) ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 1 Actual retail sales increased by 1, units m/m in May; the very strong story continues. June 1 Classes -8 Vehicles Page 17

20 N.A. CLASS 8 BUILD PER DAY January '1 - December '1 16 Units Per Day Y/Y % Change Y/Y% Chg. (right axis) ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 1 OEM build plans anticipate Class 8 build to average nearly 1, units per day through the next two quarters. 1. SOI TOTAL CL. 8 BUILD PLAN DEVIATION MOS. FROM ACTUAL Fcst. vs. Actual Ratio January '1 - May '1 (Actual and MMA) Build Plan Overstated Build Plan Understated ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright 1 OEM build plans are in very close alignment with actual through May. June 1 Classes -8 Vehicles Page 18

21 NORTH AMERICAN TRUCK OEMs' CLASS 8 BUILD PLANS: 1 SIX MONTH FORECASTS AND ACTUAL BUILD BY MONTH & QUARTER MAY 1 JAN FEB MAR QI APR MAY JUN QII JUL* AUG* SEP QIII OCT NOV DEC QIV YEAR CLASS 8 BUILD: A A A A A A F F F F F F F F F F F TRACTOR 18,9 18,88,6 9,8 1,9 1,81,1 66,,86 1,1,186 67,7,6,8 19,8 6,618 7, STRAIGHT TRUCK,9 6,1 7,9 19,16 7,7 6,8 7,8 1,8 7,8 6,67 7,71 1,6 7,61 6, 6,8,8 8,868 TOTAL CLASS 8,87,99 9, 79, 9,11 8,6,8 88,6, 8,1,7 88,7 1,6 6,88,81 8,9,1 Days Units per day 1, 1,1 1,9 1, 1,86 1, 1,9 1, 1,66 1,8 1, 1,9 1,1 1,1 1, 1, 1,8 PREVIOUS BUILD PLANS: TOTAL CLASS 8: MONTHS FROM ACTUAL 7 MONTHS - - 8,86 8, ,81 8,9,1 6 -,1 9,7 8,9 9, 8,1,9 89,19,16 8,88 9,1 88,61 1,6 6, ,79,9,1 8,66 9,88 8,,8 87,87,18 9,186 9,11 88,181 1, ,79 6,687,6 8,1,7 7,6,86 86,61 9,8 8,61,7 88, ,779 6,966,8 8,7 9,189 7,7,68 87,81,66 8, ,6 6,79 9,66 8,769 8,88 8,,878 88,19, ,6 6,8 9,7 79, 9,1 8,18,8 88, ACTUAL,87,99 9, 79, 9,11 8, NOTE: A = actual build; F = forecast build plans. Data is not seasonally adjusted. The North American Class 8 build plans are a compilation of actual and estimated build plans from vehicle manufacturers. "Most likely" adjustments are made by the editor. * Reflects factory shutdowns where applicable N.A. BUILD 1 1 Q1 Q Q Q YEAR Q1 Q Q Q YEAR CLASS 8 TRACTOR,17 8,77 6,967,86 18,7 8,8, 6,11 6,,698 CLASS 8 STRAIGHT TRUCK 1,699 18,61 16,8 1,6 6,97 18,18 18, 19,1,9 76,99 TOTAL CLASS 8,87 67,91 6,1 6,,81 66,99 7,6 79,6 76,81 97,97 BUILD DAYS BUILD PER DAY 9 1,6 1,1 1, 1,1 1,81 1,169 1,8 1, 1,8 June 1 U.S. Trailers Page 19

22 STATE OF THE INDUSTRY SERIES NORTH AMERICA CLASSES - 8 VEHICLES ACT Research Co., LLC, 1

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