An Update on Trade and Tariffs

Transcription

1 An Update on Trade and Tariffs Compiled by The Franklin Partnership, LLP As of August 14, 2018

2 About The Franklin Partnership Bi-partisan Washington, D.C.-based government relations firm Over 100 years of combined experience Representing manufacturing industry since 2003 Clients include: - Manufacturing associations - Defense manufacturers - Hospitals - Cities - Education/Research institutions

3 Contents U.S. Tariffs on Chinese Imports (301 Tariffs) NAFTA Update U.S.-EU / U.S.-Japan Talks Start Tariffs on Autos, Parts 232 Tariffs on Steel, Aluminum Contact Info

4 301 Tariffs on China Imports U.S. imposed 25% tariffs on 818 imported Chinese products July 6 12:01AM 25% tariff on 279 products worth $16 billion take effect anytime after August 23 25% tariffs on 6,031 products worth $200 billion starting anytime after Sept. 5 - China imposed 25% retaliatory tariffs on 333 U.S. imports - No timeline to lift tariffs; continue at least through midterms - 4 exclusions from tariffs granted so far - Sample of products imported from China on initial list subject to 25% tariffs effective July 6:

5 301 Tariffs on China Imports Interesting notes on 301 s China did not place retaliatory tariffs on US Oil China continues to unload US soybeans Loads of scrap metal bound for China are being refused as their industry slows and the prices for the scrap are elevated due to the retaliatory Tariffs by the Chinese Government The Shanghai Index of Chinese stocks is down nearly 20 percent, while the S&P 500 is off less than 1 percent. Since the end of March, when the battle over tariffs heated up, the yuan has slid nearly 7 percent, Growth in China is cooling. In the second quarter, the economy grew at 6.7 percent, the slowest rate since Views from a Chinese Dissident: html

6 NAFTA Update Talks with Mexico progressing, Canada not involved Close to agreement on North American content requirements (must meet 2 of 3 criteria) 1. Regional content likely around 75% Rules of Origin up from 62.5% currently 2. Auto parts must have 70% North American steel, aluminum content % of autos made in $16/hour avg. wage countries U.S. now wants to increase 2.5% non-confirming autos to 20% duty rate August 25 last day for outgoing Mexican President to sign agreement U.S. Congress would vote 2019 Democrats possibly control U.S. House Canada still opposed to U.S. insisting on termination (sunset) after 5 years Trump prefers one-on-one negotiations, still may withdraw from NAFTA Canada will rejoin talks once autos issues resolved

7 U.S.-EU / U.S.-Japan Talks Begin U.S-EU Agree to not impose additional tariffs during talks U.S. temporarily suspends any auto tariffs on EU Talks only focused on non-auto industrial goods (no raw materials, autos, or agriculture) All 28 EU nations have to agree to enter negotiations Uncertainty remains no timeline to lift steel/aluminum tariffs (could reimpose later) Switzerland not part of EU (specialty steel) U.S.-Japan held high level talks Aug 9-10, first ministerial in September Japan wants no 232 steel or 232 auto tariffs U.S. wants bilateral agreement; Japan wants U.S. to rejoin TPP

8 Possible 20-25% Tariffs on Autos, Parts President calling for 20-25% tariffs on imports from all countries Covers Cars, SUVs, vans and light trucks up to 10,000 lbs, and automotive parts - Auto parts not defined, part could also go in heavy duty, defense, agribusiness Tariffs could take effect as early as late August, early September Germany imported into U.S. 491,587 vehicles German brand vehicle exports from U.S. roughly 482,000 South Korea government may reject updated trade agreement if U.S. imposes auto tariffs President pushing Japan, EU to table to force broader trade agreement talks President believes auto tariffs, not steel, are best leverage in NAFTA, EU talks

9 Steel and Aluminum Tariffs 25% tariff on steel (flat, long, semi-finished, pipe, tube, stainless) 10% tariff on aluminum (plate; bars rods and profiles, sheet, strip, and foil, castings and forgings No End Date: goal to increase capacity utilization to 80% from 73% for steel (48% aluminum to 80%) 22,000 requests filed to exclude steel import from tariffs; 2,000 decided Zero exclusion requests approved with domestic steel company objection (5,977 objections filed) Covers entire world, including NAFTA, EU, Japan, Switzerland, except Australia fully exempted; South Korea, Argentina, Brazil have quotas Sample of South Korea Quotas already filled (hard quotas vs. tariff rate quotas): (139,217,143 kg filled so far)

10 Retaliation Against U.S. Products U.S. has steel trade surplus with Canada today Canada applying 25% or 10% tariffs on steel, aluminum, and finished goods Mexico applying to: flat steel (hot and cold foil, including coated, tubes), lamps, pork, apples, grapes, blueberries, cheeses, other EU applying 25% tariffs on 182 products on June 20, 2018; 10-50% tariffs on 158 products by 2021 China applying 5-25% autos, stainless steel boiler tubes, seamless pipes, aluminum scrap, pork BMW to build some X5 vehicles in China in addition to South Carolina

11 Tariff Risk Evaluation Assessment Tool 10-25% Steel/Aluminum 232 Tariffs 25% tariff on steel imports (Australia completely exempt) (Argentina, Brazil, South Korea have quotas) 10% tariff on aluminum Imports List raw materials subject to tariffs/quotas 25% Auto, Van, SUV, Truck, Part Tariffs Tariffs would apply to all countries Trucks under 10,000 lbs. included No clear definition of parts No timeline could take effect mid-august Includes parts crossing Mexico-U.S. border List imported auto parts you further work List autos assembled overseas you supply 10-25% China Import Tariffs 25% tariff on 818 Chinese imports in effect 25% tariff on 284 imports after July 31 10% tariff on 6,000+ imports after Aug 31 List products/machines/tools imported from China 10-50% Retaliation Against U.S. Goods Retaliation already in effect for many goods China adding more as U.S. adds more 25% tariff on exported U.S. autos 15% on U.S. stampings exported to India List your products subject to tariffs List customers products subject to tariffs

12 Contact Information Precision Machined Products Association Miles Free Director, Ind. Research and Tech. The Franklin Partnership, LLP Omar S. Nashashibi Founding