THE DAWN OF AUTOMOTIVE 2.0?

Transcription

1 THE DAWN OF AUTOMOTIVE 2.0? Patrick Debal

2 WELCOME 2

3 The Dawn of Automotive 2.0? The world is changing at a pace we have never seen before. The many changes bring challenges and opportunities, also to the automotive industry. This presentation will highlight some of the changes, challenges and opportunities. I have added my personal viewpoint here and there. So this presentation does not necessarily represents the opinion of Punch Powertrain and its management. 3

4 The Dawn of Automotive 2.0? Overview of the presentation The environment Emerging technology Business models Out-of-the-box ideas Punch Powertrain: the Company Conclusions 4

5 THE ENVIRONMENT 5

6 The Environment Transport is a contributor to degrading air quality by: Greenhouse gases, mainly CO 2 Harmful emissions: CO, HC, NO x and PM The growth in emerging countries and the increasing welfare results in the growth of the global fleet and the distance driven. Governments impose lower emission limits and stricter test procedures. 6

7 The Environment 7

8 The Environment The European case: Targets for CO 2 emissions Harmful emission levels lowered, esp. for diesels NEDC test cycle replaced by WLTC Vehicle Speed [km/h] NEDC WLTC EU Type Approval Cycles Time [s] 8

9 The Environment What do we see? Real fuel consumption does not drop +9% +40% Source: From laboratory to road: A 2016 update, retrieved 06/09/2017 9

10 The Environment What do we see? Real fuel consumption does not drop +9% +40% Source: Groupe PSA, T&E, FNE and Bureau Veritas develop accurate real-world fuel consumption test protocol, retrieved 06/09/

11 The Environment What do we see? Real fuel consumption does not drop Real emissions are much higher than the type approval limits Average conformity factor of 5 implies that the average emissions are 5x the limits Source: Road tested: Comparative overview of real-world versus type-approval NOx and CO2 emissions from diesel cars in Europe, retrieved 06/09/

12 The Environment What do we see? Real fuel consumption does not drop Real emissions are much higher than the type approval limits The new drive cycle is affected by lobbying: Duration of stops are reduced, smaller benefit of STOP/START Acceleration levels remain gentle Deceleration levels do not favor high end regenerative braking systems 12

13 The Environment What do we see? Real fuel consumption does not drop Real emissions are much higher than the type approval limits The new drive cycle is affected by lobbying Car companies are cheating: Dieselgate, not only VW is being investigated Rumours about illegal tricks during coasting test and chassis dyno test Warnings were given years ago to the EU Commission( ) and governments ( ) Source: European commission warned of car emissions test cheating, five years before VW scandal, retrieved 06/09/

14 Results: Traditional OEMs keep up the traditions, new powertrains are more of the same: Changing technology requires a huge investment Official type approval data remove the incentive to change Standards are twisted to protect the status quo New technology has difficulties gaining market share: More expensive, especially due to inital low volume Difference in performance (e.g. fuel economy) seems smaller due to fake data of traditional technology Opportunities for game changers and emerging countries The Environment 14

15 Results: Opportunities for game changers: A lot of start-up companies try to enter the market with unconventional vehicles Only Tesla is relatively successful Other have failed or remain very small players Opportunities for emerging countries Emerging countries initially lack the industrial infrastructure to build a lot of conventional vehicles They can skip investing in too much infrastructure for conventional vehicles and jump to newer technology Opportunity to learn from our mistakes and not to repeat them The Environment 15

16 EMERGING TECHNOLOGY 16

17 Emerging Technology Emerging technology is new technology: Not electric powertrains Not hybrid powertrains Punch Powertrain

18 Emerging Technology Examples of emerging technology: Carbon fiber in mass production Battery chemistry with increased energy density Autonomous driving New communication technology: Vehicle-to-vehicle V2V Vehicle-to-grid V2G 18

19 Carbon fiber: Provides a drastic saving on vehicle mass => saving energy Emerging Technologies Mass volume production processes are being developed to reach acceptable cost BMW i3 body 19

20 Emerging Technologies Battery chemistry with increased energy density: Smaller and lighter battery pack for the same range Options are limited, no quantum leap Tesla 85 kwh battery pack 20

21 Emerging Technologies Autonomous driving: Driverless cars open a range of opportunities and risks Opportunities: New business models for personal transport (car sharing, car on demand, ) Flexible public transport New vehicle concepts Risks: Owner and user may not be the same => less vehicles required Accidents should not happen, car insurance may become obsolete 21

22 Emerging Technologies New vehicle concepts: einride s T-pod autonomous electric truck 22

23 Emerging Technologies New communication technology: Vehicle-to-vehicle: Exchange of safety related data (e.g. communicate intention to brake) Facilitate platooning Increase safety and capacity of roads Conventional Radar detection V2V communication 23

24 Emerging Technologies New communication technology: Vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V): Vehicle-to-grid (V2G) Exchange of safety related data (e.g. road conditions, traffic jam, ) Vehicle maintenance planning (diagnosis, spare parts ordering, ) Enhance mode change (parking space, switch to train, plane, ) Guide to and reserve charging point Order services at next stop or arrival 24

25 BUSINESS MODELS 25

26 Recent Business Models Dealer network Car ownership 26

27 Disruption by New Business Models Autonomous driving: Do we need car insurance? Liability of car accidents may be with car producer What happens with the insurance companies? Do we need to own a car? You can rent a car that comes to your door as ordered Less autonomous vehicles can do more => size of fleet Do we still need professional drivers for buses, trucks or taxis? These people cannot switch easily to totally different jobs Unemployment rise over a period? 27

28 Disruption by New Business Models Electric vehicles: Maintenance is drastically reduced No more engine Reduced brake wear Remote diagnosis Car dealers will need to rethink their business model Will they remain dealers? Tesla owns its dealer network. Become service provider of autonomous vehicles? Own/lease the fleet? Other services? 28

29 Disruption by New Business Models Electric vehicles: Can conventional OEMs and suppliers switch quickly enough: Investments in conventional technology done Electric vehicles based on a conventional chassis are not optimal New technology requires investing in equipment AND people Will the newcomer(s) keep their current advantage? Will Tesla become large enough before the others become important in EV? Will Chinese OEMs use their growth to have a large footprint in EV? 29

30 Disruption by New Business Models 30 Source: retrieved 12/09/2017

31 OUT-OF-THE-BOX IDEAS 31

32 What do we see? 32

33 How do we think about it? Punch Powertrain

34 Space Taken by 60/69 People in Traffic Punch Powertrain

35 Single Seater Vehicles and Concepts 35

36 Energy Use by Different Transport Modes ,28 Energy (In-)Efficiency of Transport Energy use [MJ/km] ,84 1,15 1,04 0,83 0,81 0,76 0,72 0,44 0,22 0,05 0,03 0,01 0 Source: retrieved 13/09/

37 Streamlined trike (mainly) operated with human power Can attain high cycling speed with fairly low power: 250 W ~ 30 km/h 500 W ~ 50 km/h Allows commuting to work if one-way distance is km Keeps you in shape Velomobile 37

38 Extreme Commuting by Bicycle Source: retrieved 13/09/

39 PUNCH POWERTRAIN: THE COMPANY 39

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41 Past growth and products for future growth CUSTOMERS & APPLICATIONS Domestic Chinese OEMs: 80% of all CVTs is from Punch 14% of all ATs is Punch CVTs Demand from other regions rises Wider spread of applications Design for global market coverage 2006: few apps/<30 kupa VT2 2017: 70 apps/ >800kupa VT2/3 PRODUCTS & PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT VT3 HS2 VT5 DT1 EP2 41

42 Multinational presence Local Offices & Services PUNE India SALES OFFICE Customer Care SHAH ALAM Malaysia AFTER SALES & SERVICE Customer Care SINT- TRUIDEN Belgium R&D CENTRE & TEST FACILITIES Pulleys/hydraulics capacity Q ~ 1,2 M NANJING China R&D, AFTER SALES & SERVICE CVT production capacity Q ~ 1,25 M ZANJAN Iran SALES OFFICE & AFTER SALES CVT production in 2018 capacity 2018 ~ 200 k EINDHOVEN The Netherlands R&D INNOVATION CENTRE FLECHTORF Germany R&D INNOVATION CENTRE Production

43 Multinational Employment 32 nationalities and rising 43

44 Opportunities 44

45 CONCLUSIONS 45

46 Conclusions The automotive industry is rapidly changing: Business as usual does not work anymore Risks for: Late changers (too late) Early movers (too early) Start-ups Jobs of yesterday will disappear Jobs of today will change Jobs of tomorrow not known yet Difficult to prepare but a lot of opportunities Success depends on: Corporate flexibility Personal flexibility 46

47 Thank you for your attention! For more info about us, please visit our website PUNCH POWERTRAIN NV 2017 Industriezone Punch Powertrain Schurhovenveld BE-3800 Sint-Truiden All rights such Belgium as copying and +32 passing on 11 to third info@punchpowertrain.com parties reserved by Punch Powertrain. sales@punchpowertrain.com