E-Mobility: Recent developments and outlook into the future
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1 E-Mobility: Recent developments and outlook into the future Lisbon, 03 October, 2018 Latendorf Organisational Development Karl-Juch-Str. 28, D Essen Phone: Fax: info@latendorf.biz
2 Table of contents Supply Side Historic Development Market Outlook Demand Side Customer preferences Governmental regulations Battery Market Different Chemistries Tendencies in the market Summary Outlook 04/10/2018 Latendorf Organisational Development
3 Table of contents Supply Side Historic Development Market Outlook Demand Side Customer preferences Governmental regulations Battery Market Different Chemistries Tendencies in the market Summary Outlook 04/10/2018 Latendorf Organisational Development
4 The EV market grows exponentially and volume capability (in production but also sales) becomes a key aspect for the OEM The incumbent manufacturers need to rethink and adapt their business model due to: Changed customer behaviour, Different service requirements Shift from a product-driven to a customer-centric approach due to: Faster product and service replacement rates Higher expectations for service and response times Sources: EV-Volumes 04/10/2018 Latendorf Organisational Development
5 Huge differences between the countries and the three leading models are pure BEVs. Sources: EV-Volumes 04/10/2018 Latendorf Organisational Development
6 Exponential growth is expected in the next years and the incumbent OEMs have got ambitious plans New EV registrations (Millions) (PHEV + BEV) New E-Model Variations per year and segment F E D C B A Production Forecasts Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Volkswagen Tesla Geely Daimler General Motors Toyota Honda Hyundai BAIC BMW Ford PSA SAIC BYD Great Wall GAMC JAC Rest Sources: EV-Volumes, IHS, Bloomberg New Energy Finance and own research 04/10/2018 Latendorf Organisational Development
7 Table of contents Supply Side Historic Development Market Outlook Demand Side Customer preferences Governmental regulations Battery Market Different Chemistries Tendencies in the market Summary Outlook 04/10/2018 Latendorf Organisational Development
8 Executive Research: Priorities are shifting towards new mobility Scope Current Priorities Past Priorities New propulsion E-Mobility Fuel Cell Charging Landscape Efficiency Downsizing Diesel Rationalisation Digitisation Connectivity Digital Services Data Management Past motivations Horsepower Acceleration Top Speed Digitisation and E-Mobility dominate opinions Source: KPMG Research 04/10/2018 Latendorf Organisational Development
9 A market study we conducted in Europe shows that customers OEMs are not matching expectations on many fronts and also want complete mobile solutions Strategy Customer Operations Customers require more details about the e- mobility strategy. The communication focuses on technical aspects and lacks passion. Discuss and find mobility solutions, not only cars. Sales people need to learn a different language and skill portfolio. Sales people lack own e- mobility experience. Customers want to get involved earlier in the product development. No central sales, but decentral and instant service solutions. Organisation People Leadership A separate EV organisational setup in sales is key to develop a market such as DE or UK. New minds and a new HR development process to allow a cultural change. Current incentive systems do not help the development of e-mobility. There is a general lack of competence in understanding customer mobility requirements. Old style management has proven successful but hinders a fast decision making process. Speed beats perfection in a disruptive environment. 71 interviews in total in 7 countries. All people were asked to comment on 6 key areas. 04/10/2018 Latendorf Organisational Development
10 Increasing regulations and decreasing CO 2 Targets add to the trend and force OEMs to advance Quellen: The Guardian, European Comission, Daily Express, electrive 04/10/2018 Latendorf Organisational Development
11 Table of contents Supply Side Historic Development Market Outlook Demand Side Customer preferences Governmental regulations Battery Market Different Chemistries Tendencies in the market Summary Outlook 04/10/2018 Latendorf Organisational Development
12 Charging and Discharging Charging Discharging 04/10/2018 Latendorf Organisational Development
13 Each fuel has got ist own specific attributes LCO LMO NMC NCA LFP LTO Advantage s High energy densitiy Simple Cheap Ressources available Capacity Voltage Energy density Variants (333, 532, 622, 811) Capacity and voltage Performance Slow electrolyte reaction Safety Resources Fast charging Life span Vary safe Stable Fast charging Life span Disavanta ges Expensive Heat resistance Life span Capacity Life span Material costs Resource scarcity Material costs Resource scarcity Safety procedures Capacity Voltage Energy density Very expensive Low specific energy density Example Phones, Tablets, Notebooks, Cameras Disappearing E-bikes, Cars Industry Medical devices Cars (Tesla) Busses Trucks Forklifts Street lights Busses Trucks 04/10/2018 Latendorf Organisational Development
14 NMC share increasing, while LMO disappears, LFP used in busses (due to recharging cycles) Sources: EV Volumes 04/10/2018 Latendorf Organisational Development
15 Outlook into the future predicts a strong NMC growth with a tendency towards higher Ni-Shares in Cathodes LMO LFP Unknown NCA NMC 0 GWh 2017 GWh 2020 GWh 2023 Sources: IHS, BNEF, Own Research (passenger cars only) 04/10/2018 Latendorf Organisational Development
16 Overview of the material input per kwh of battery capacity Sources: BNEF 04/10/2018 Latendorf Organisational Development
17 The increased need in battery capacity suggests a significant increased need of Co, Ni and Li Sources: Avicenne Energy 04/10/2018 Latendorf Organisational Development
18 Table of contents Supply Side Historic Development Market Outlook Demand Side Customer preferences Governmental regulations Battery Market Different Chemistries Tendencies in the market Summary Outlook 04/10/2018 Latendorf Organisational Development
19 Yesterday: Electric Cars 04/10/2018 Latendorf Organisational Development
20 Tomorrow: Electrified Cities? 04/10/2018 Latendorf Organisational Development
21 EV demand and supply will increase and therefore the need for Li+ batteries and their raw materials. Questions? Latendorf Organisational Development Karl-Juch-Str. 28, D Essen Phone: Fax: info@latendorf.biz
22 Thank you! Kind Regards, André Latendorf Latendorf Organisational Development Karl-Juch-Str. 28, D Essen Phone: Fax: info@latendorf.biz
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