Towards Electro-mobility for cleaner air and climate security

Transcription

1 Towards Electro-mobility for cleaner air and climate security Anumita Roychowdhury Centre for Science and Environment March 03, 2017 Tamarind Hall 1 India Habitat Centre, New Delhi

2 First generation action Big CNG transition shows result Particulate pollution decline and rise again due to rapid increase in vehicle numbers Based on CPCB data 2

3 2015 winter catalyses second generation action Directives from the Supreme Court since October 2015: -- Environment compensation charge on trucks significant reduction in truck numbers -- Bans10 year old trucks; divert non-destined trucks -- All coal power plants shut only one allowed to open in summer -- Directions for action across NCR to control trash burning and construction activities, Expansion of CNG programme -- Big diesel cars pay pollution charge -- Delhi and NCR gets first ever Graded Response Action Plan -- Direction to prepare comprehensive time bound source-wise action plan to control pollution in Delhi NCR Central government issued notification on Euro VI in 2020 Opportunity for second energy transition?

4 Bend and sustain the pollution curve Lesson from this winter 4

5 What s on table? Ministry of Environment and Forests meet clean air standards and INDC commitment of reducing carbon intensity of growth by 30-35% 35% by 2030 Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas -- Reduce oil import dependence by 50% by 2020; 75% by Transport sector uses up 40% of petroleum products. Vehicle numbers to increase six fold by 2030 and Indians will travel thrice as many kilometers as they travelled in Ministry of Road Transport and Highways and Bureau of Energy Efficiency: Fuel economy standards Aspirational goal of our Power Minister Piyush Goyal all vehicles to be sold in 2030 should be electric vehicle National Mission on Electric Mobility 6-7 million electric vehicle units by Incentive programme of Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid and Electric vehicles Ministry of Renewable Energy; Department of Science and Technology

6 Doubts Why should we look at electric mobility? Is it the right time when we are operating at much lower level of technology curve? Too expensive? Will it not block other lower cost options needed at larger scale? Electro-mobility linked to dirty power cannot give adequate greenhouse gas benefits. Mainstream technologies are improving to become very fuel efficient. Why spend so much on EV options? But there is merit in the case for EV -- Paradigm shift away from ICE engine is inevitable - More cost effective to make the transition now before we are pushed towards more expensive petrol and diesel solutions in the longer run. Part of preventive strategy -- EV is the only strategy with flexible upstream fuel options. Grid will only get cleaner

7 Has electric vehicle programme delivered so far? What do we learn for course correction? The case of FAME

8 Trend in Electric cars and hybrids - India Initial support from Alternate Fuels for Surface Transportation Programme and subsidy scheme. Sharp decline in electric car registration b/w Very small volume Source: 2016, Global EV Outlook, International Energy Agency

9 Global market: Small but growing Global electric car stock, Electric vehicle stock still small less than 3% but growing Electric vehicle stock in 2016 was twice the stock that existed in only few hundreds. Source: 2016, Global EV Outlook 2016, International Energy Agency

10 India vs Delhi India Delhi *Note: Electric vehicle includes all Battery Operated Vehicles like 4 wheelers, 2 wheelers., Whereas hybrid are only 4 wheelers) Source: 2016, Parivahan Sewa, Ministry of Road Transport and Highways, Government of India EV and Hybrid penetration % nationally; In Delhi 4.1% Delhi has 62% of total electric vehicle registered in 2016; 79% of diesel mild hybrid cars; and 97% of strong hybrids. Electric two-wheelers dominate national sales, -- sales of electric 2- wheelers and cars tripled from 2014 levels to 23,000 units, of which 21,000 units are electric 2 wheelers. (Ten months 2016)

11 Policies on electro-mobility taking shape... National Mission on Electric Mobility in 2011 and National Electric Mobility Mission i Plan 2020 (NEMMP) in future roadmap for electric mobility in India, along the lines of the National Automotive Mission Plan Target of 6-7 million electric/hybrid vehicles by 2020 along with indigenization of technology Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of (Hybrid and) Electric (FAME) to for technology Development; Demand Creation; Pilot Projects; Charging Infrastructure. Standards and certification -- Authorized Testing Centre to certify vehicle to qualify for demand incentives. Get eligibility certificate

12 Break-up of the Scheme components Component of the Scheme (In crores) Year Technology Platform (including testing infrastructure) Demand Incentive Charging Infrastructure Pilot Projects IEC/ Operations Total Grand total Rs. 795 crore Source: Fame India Scheme As on December 2016, incentives for models of two wheelers, 12 models of cars; one three wheeler model. Out of the Rs. 795 crore outlay only Rs. 190 crore utilized, -- of which -- as of June Rs. 83 crore used for demand incentives.

13 Incentives Structure Demand incentive for vehicles by segment (Incentive in Rupees) S. No. Vehicle Segment Minimum Incentive Maximum Incentive 1 2 Wheeler Scooter ,000 2 Motorcycle , wheeler Autorikshaw wheeler Passenger cars 11,000 1,38, a) Electric 1,24,000 1,38, b) Mild Hybrid 13,000 13, c) Plug-in 70,000 70,000 5 LCVs 17,000 1,87,000 6 Bus 30,00,000 66,00,000 30% of Kit price or 7 Retro Fitment Category 15% or 30, if reduction in fuel consumption is 10-30% 90,000 if reduction in fuel consumption is more than 30%

14 Definition as per Department of Heavy Industry s FAME Guideline Mild hybrid: A Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV) * which has a Stop-Start arrangement, Electric Regenerative Braking System and a Motor Assist (motor alone is not capable to propel the vehicle from a stationary condition). Strong hybrid: A Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV) which has a Stop-Start arrangement, Electric Regenerative Braking System and a Motor Drive (motor alone is capable to propel the vehicle from a stationary condition). Plug-in hybrid: A Strong HEV vehicle which has a provision for Off Vehicle Charging (OVC) of Rechargeable Energy Storage System (ReESS). Electric vehicle: A vehicle which is powered exclusively by an electric Electric vehicle: A vehicle which is powered exclusively by an electric motor whose traction energy is supplied exclusively by traction battery installed in the vehicle and has an Electric Regenerative Braking System.

15 Name of OEM Number of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles sold under the demand incentive scheme during the year and Type of Vehicle Number of Vehicles (Upto June 2016) Total Total Demand Incentive released (Rs.) Mahindra REVA Electric Vehicles 4W Electric ,27,96,000 Pvt Ltd Electrotherm (Indian ) Ltd 2W ,18,25,000 Maruti Suzuki India Ltd 4W Mild Hybrid ,39,71,000 Hero Electric Vehicles Pvt Ltd 2W ,45,46,000 Toyota Kirloskar Motor Pvt Ltd 4W Strong Hybrid ,19,70,000 Lohia Auto Industries 2W ,22,500 Ampere Vehicles Pvt Ltd 2W ,05,000 Avon Cycles Ltd 2W ,70,000 Chris Motors 2W ,25,000 Ajanta Manufacturing Ltd 2W ,52,55,000 Total ,96,85,500 Source: Lok Sabha Starred Question No.133 to the DHI

16 Model getting incentive under the FAME scheme Incentive S. OEMs Model Name Amount No. (Rs.) Four Wheelers 1 Mahindra and Mahindra Limited E-VERITO 138,000 2 Mahindra and Mahindra Limited Mahindra e-supro Cargo Van 187,000 3 Mahindra Reva E2O T2-48V Li-on Winston 450 Amp 124,000 4 Mahindra Reva E2O T1-72V Li-ion ATL 550 Amp 124,000 5 Mahindra Reva E2O T6-48V Li -ion CALB 450 AMP 124,000 6 Mahindra Reva e2o Plus P4 124,000 7 Mahindra Reva e2o Plus P2 124,000 8 Mahindra Reva e2o Plus P6 124,000 9 Mahindra Reva e2o Plus P8 124, Maruti Suzuki India Ltd Maruti Ciaz Diesel SHVS Std. 13, Maruti Suzuki India Ltd MARUTI ERTIGA LDI SHVS 13, Toyota Kirloskar Motor Pvt Ltd TOYOTA CAMRY HYBRID 70,000 Three Wheelers 1 Electrotherm (India) Limited ET Uvraj 25,000

17 Two wheelers S. No. OEMs Model Name Incentive Amount (Rs.) Two Wheelers 1 Ajanta Manufacturing Limited J-50 PLUS 7,500 2 Ampere Vehicles Pvt. Ltd. V60 7,500 3 Ampere Vehicles Pvt. Ltd. Ampere-V48 7,500 4 AVON Cycles Limited AVON ESCOOT 207 7,500 5 AVON Cycles Limited AVON E MATE 7,500 6 Chris Motors Breeze lite 7,500 7 Electrotherm (India) Limited Yo Electron ER 7,500 8 Electrotherm (India) Limited Yo Xplor 7,500 9 Electrotherm (India) Limited Yo Spark 9, Electrotherm (India) Limited Yo Exl ER 9, Hero Electric Vehicle Private Limited Maxi 7, Hero Electric Vehicle Private Limited Zion 7, Hero Electric Vehicle Private Limited Optima Plus 7, Hero Electric Vehicle Private Limited E Sprint 9, Hero Electric Vehicle Private Limitedit Photon 9, Hero Electric Vehicle Private Limited Cruz 7, Hero Electric Vehicle Private Limited Hero Wave 7, Hero Electric Vehicle Private Limited Hero Wave DX - Extra Mile 7, Hero Electric Vehicle Private Limited OPTIMA DX 7, Hero Electric Vehicle Private Limited NYX 7, Hero Electric Vehicle Private Limited OPTIMA DX LI 17, Hero Electric Vehicle Private Limited Maxi LI 17, Hero Electric Vehicle Private Limited NYX-LI 17, Hero Electric Vehicle Private Limited OPTIMA BX LI 17, Hero Electric Vehicle Private Limited Cruz LI 17, Hero Electric Vehicle Private Limited PHOTON LI 22, Lohia Auto Industries OMA STAR 7, Lohia Auto Industries OMA STAR DX 7, Lohia Auto Industries GENIUS 7, Okinawa Autotech Private Limited RIDGE 9, Tunwal Electronics Elektrika 48 7, Tunwal Electronics Sport 63 7, Tunwal Electronics STORM ZX 7,500

18 State level action Air ambience fund S. No. Type of Cost of Vehicle (Base Subsidy Vehicle Price) amount 1. Up to Rs. 20,000 Rs. 1, Wheeler Between Rs. 20,000 and Rs. 25,000 Rs. 2, Above Rs. 25,000 Rs. 5, Wheelers 4 Wheeler N.A. Rs. 30,000 Up to Rs. 5,00,000 Rs. 30,000 More than Rs. 5,00,000 Rs. 1,50,000 State level of action Collections and Utilization of Air Ambience Fund for Incentivizing Electric Vehicles Utilisation rate of subsidy 20% of total collection But fund collection has increased significantly ifi Programme will need recalibration to utilise the fund more effectively

19 Results?

20 95% of the cars sold in under FAME were diesel mild hybrid Source: Lok Sabha Starred Question No.133 to the DHI

21 Share of total incentive given in Source: Lok Sabha Starred Question No.133 to the DHI : Out of Rs. 70 crore spent on incentives, Rs. 40 crore is for diesel mild hybrids -- 57% None for 3 wheelers and buses. Incentive for diesel mild hybrid-- Maruti Ciaz Diesel SHVS Std is 1.5% of cost; for electric car Mahindra Reva (Electric Car) is 24.7% of cost of car But higher volume of diesel mild hybrid has cornered more than half of the fund. Diesel mild hybrid enjoy FAME incentives as well as excise tax reduction. Now listed for super credits under fuel economy programme

22 Emissions and fuel saving gains? Fuel Consumption Savings of Models Under FAME Scheme Compared with base Models Nearly 60% of FAME incentive tied with nominal improvement and established technology Source: ICCT 22

23 Why incentive is linked with minimal improvement and low incremental cost? Comparative total cost of ownership (include purchase cost, fuel cost, insurance cost, maintenance cost, depreciation ): Mild diesel hybrid cars: Total cost of ownership for mild hybrids is about 5% lower than base model with incentive and 14% higher without any incentive. Strong hybrid cars Total cost of ownership is about 23% higher without any incentive sales of Toyota Camry 7 times higher than base model though much smaller in number Electric cars Ttl Total cost of ownership is about t1%l lower than base model dlwith ithincentive and 51% higher without any incentive sales very small less than 1000 in Source: ICCT 23

24 How incentives influence cost of twowheeler ownership? Low speed electric two-wheeler wheeler Total cost of ownership is about 44% lower than base model with incentive and 28% lower without any incentive. Delhi government incentive further helps Tax incentive significant High speed electric two-wheeler Total cost of ownership is about 7% higher than conventional model with incentive and 26% higher h without t any incentive Tax incentive significant Cost of two-wheelers with lithium Ion battery is much higher will need support Source: ICCT 24

25 Barriers for Electric Vehicles

26 Segment- wise challenges Vehicle segment wise matrix of key barriers to EV adoption 4-W 2-W 3-W LCV Bus Range Charging time Battery Replacement Low top speed Low pick up Note: Numbers indicate priority with 1 representing the highest ranking Source: GoI- industry study.

27 Two-wheeler: slow start

28 Emissions gains 19 out of 24 two-wheeler model low speed scooters with max power output of less than 250 watts and maximum speed of 25 kilometers per hour Except Hero Optima Dx Li all are lead acid battery more expensive FAME caps maximum energy consumption from low and high speed two-wheelers at 5 kwh/100 km and 8 kwh/100km for incentive. Yet to achieve scale. Cost constraints? Battery cost? Consumer acceptance? Source: ICCT Opportunity? Small trip length in most cities -- short range 28 Delivery bikes?

29 What has China done about two-wheelers? Chinese regulations promote low weight, low speed vehicles for safety Indian models are comparatively heavier e China also largely lead acid battery China has restricted petrol twowheelers in certain cities. This has created mandate.. 29

30 Buses: Non starter t Incentives for buses under FAME Rs 30,00, to Rs 66,00,

31 Buses Nascent interest in electric bus Navi Mumbai pilot project Himachal Pradesh pilot: 100 EV buses West Bengal released tender Chandigarh proposed pilot Bengaluru pilot Telengana proposed pilot Gurgaon proposed pilot 2015 Prime Minister flagged off the Smart Electric Bus 31

32 Cost of transition -- How can state transport corporations plan? Implications for viability gap funding -- Addressing the issue of range -- Building metro feeder -- Aggregator model -- shuttle -- Employee programme Expensive Eg. Ashok Leyland Bus Circuit Seating capacity varies from Range is upto 120 km in a single charge Cost varies from Rs1.5 crore to 3.5 crore Incentives under FAME (Rs 30,00,000 to Rs 66,00,000) Actual cost of the bus reduces to Rs 1.2 crore to Rs crore 32

33 Diesel and CNG pathways to meet Euro VI norms Diesel emissions control route more complicated and expensive

34 Looking at solutions Support from governments for upfront capital costs Battery swapping delink battery from the vehicle business model for swapping; standardisation and specs for battery pack; need reliable market with scale: risk reduction; Short range for feeder and local routes for cost effective solutions Tax incentive Create dedicated fund based on polluter pay principle eg Delhi clean air fund from tax on trucks and big diesel cars 34 Can EV based metro feeder be built into the overall capital cost and operational plan of metro etc?

35 Para-transit Three-wheelers and taxis Close to half of average trip length in most cities is within 3-4 km range Para transit based on e-mobility is a viable and effective option Vehicle models are available Already strong response from informal sector e- rickshaws Swapping and fast charging facilities Fiscal support Designated parking and charging 35

36 Electricity?

37 Emissions benefits from passenger Cars Under FAME Scheme under current scenario Vehicle Technology Segment Curb Weight (kg) Length (mm) Displacem ent (cc) Price Range (INR Gasoline Equivalent Fuel Consumption Life-Cycle CO 2 e Emissions Lakhs) (liter/100 km) (Tonnes/ 12 years) Maruti Ciaz Mild Hybrid Midsize 1,115 4,490 1,248 8 to SHVS (Diesel) Maruti Ertiga SHVS Mild Hybrid (Diesel) Utility Vehicle (UV1) 1,235 4,265 1, to Toyota Strong Hybrid Premium 1,635 4,850 2, to Camry (Gasoline) Hybrid Mahindra e2o Mahindra everito Battery- Operated Electric Battery- Operated Electric Mini 830 3,280 NA 4.5 to Midsize 1,140 4,277 NA [1] As per classification mechanism adopted by Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers [2] Retail price in Delhi (1 INR lakh ~ USD 1,500) [3] As per fuel economy values under test conditions certified by Automotive Research Authority of India (icct) 37

38 If 30% reduction in CO 2 intensity Vehicle Technology Segment Curb Weight (kg) Length (mm) Displace ment (cc) Price Range (INR Gasoline Equivalent Fuel Life-Cycle CO 2 e Emissions Lakhs) Consumption (liter/100 km) (Tonnes/ 12 years) Maruti Ciaz SHVS Mild Hybrid (Diesel) Midsize 1,115 4,490 1,248 8 to Maruti Ertiga SHVS Mild Hybrid (Diesel) Utility Vehicle (UV1) 1,235 4,265 1, to Toyota Strong Hybrid Premium 1,635 4,850 2, to Camry (Gasoline) Hybrid Mahindra e2o Mahindra everito Battery- Operated Electric Battery- Operated Electric Mini 830 3,280 NA 4.5 to Midsize 1,140 4,277 NA [1] As per classification mechanism adopted by Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers [2] Retail price in Delhi (1 INR lakh ~ USD 1,500) [3] As per fuel economy values under test conditions certified by Automotive Research Authority of India 38

39 If 50% reduction in CO 2 intensity Vehicle Technology Segment Curb Weight (kg) Length (mm) Displacem ent (cc) Price Range (INR Gasoline Equivalent Fuel Consumption o Life-Cycle CO 2 e Emissions s Lakhs) (liter/100 km) (Tonnes/ 12 years) Maruti Ciaz SHVS Mild Hybrid (Diesel) Midsize 1,115 4,490 1,248 8 to Maruti Ertiga SHVS Mild Hybrid (Diesel) Utility Vehicle (UV1) 1,235 4,265 1, to Toyota Camry Hybrid Mahindra e2o Mahindra everito Strong Hybrid (Gasoline) Battery- Operated Electric Battery- Operated Electric Premium 1,635 4,850 2, to Mini 830 3,280 NA 4.5 to Midsize 1,140 4,277 NA [1] As per classification mechanism adopted by Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers [2] Retail price in Delhi (1 INR lakh ~ USD 1,500) [3] As per fuel economy values under test conditions certified by Automotive Research Authority of India 39

40 Charging infrastructure Under FAME, small allocation for charging infrastructure DHI - set up 25 charging stations in Bangalore under a pilot project; to set up 200 new charging stations ti in cities including Delhi, Jaipur and Mumbai soon. Mahindra has set up their own 82 charging g points free of cost. 23 stations in Delhi. Bangalore (16), Gurugram (6), Faridabad (1), Noida (1), Kolkata (18), Howrah (2), Mumbai (2), Pune (12) and Sahibabad (1). Source: Plug in India

41 Concerns... Present regulatory framework doesn t permit resale of electricity. A business model and regulatory approval by which a way side restaurant/parking t/ lot operators can install and maintain i charging stations and parking bays needs to be worked out. India Smart Grid Forum (a PPP initiative of the Ministry of Power, Government of India) under the aegis of Smart Utilities Group (SUG), looking at it..

42 Charging infrastructure across global cities Source: McKinsey analysis; press search

43 Market ramp up of vehicles and publicly accessible charging infrastructure... Source: Charging Infrastructure for Electric Vehicles in Germany, 2015

44 Let power sector get involved Need coordinated action with power companies/discoms: -- Charging infrastructure -- Smart metering -- Map demand and work with consumers -- Pricing -- Incentive for industry involved in battery swapping -- Consumer awareness 44

45 Global learning: Incentives are drivers of EV programmes But design incentives well

46 Leaders EV sales and market share in a selection of countries and regions, % of global stock are located in five countries -- US, China, Japan, Netherlands and Norway. Influence of incentive programmes Source: 2016, Global EV Outlook 2016, International Energy Agency

47 China Direct fiscal incentives to consumers The subsidies paid directly to automakers rather than consumers. Electric vehicles not subject to toll fees and exempted from any local registration restriction like lottery or auction. Many electric passenger cars and hybrid vehicle models manufactured in China are exempted from paying value added tax (VAT). Regulatory incentive The Chinese government had set a target to register 2 million electric vehicles by To support the electric vehicle sale, the government has also planned to install 10 million charging points. Electric buses: Compared to European cities electric buses much Electric buses: Compared to European cities, electric buses much higher. In 2014, 20,000 electric buses were manufactured and sold in China.

48 Japan... Direct fiscal incentives to consumers Electric vehicle purchasers enjoy exemption and reduction from certain auto-related taxes. Continue to offer Clean Energy subsidies to purchasers of electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids. Actual amount of subsidy is two third of the price difference between the electric vehicle and a comparable gasoline car. According to a survey carried by Nissan in 2016, Japan has more According to a survey carried by Nissan in 2016, Japan has more electric charging points that petrol pumps.

49 Norway... Direct fiscal incentives to consumers BEVs are exempted from the VAT, which normally adds 25 per cent of a vehicle s list price to the total cost. Exemption of BEVs from the registration ti tax. Indirect non fiscal incentive to consumers Norwegian BEV owners have preferential access to large parts of public infrastructure, including free access to toll roads, reduced ferry rates, free parking, access to bus lanes, and free charging at public charging stations.

50 Germany... Direct fiscal incentives to consumers BEVs registered before 2016 are exempted from the ownership tax for 10 years and vehicles registered between 2016 and 2020 are exempted for five years. Regulatory incentive Germany has approximately 50,000 electric vehicles on the road and aims to introduce one million electric vehicles by 2020 and six million by Funding for charging infrastructure: Funding for electric vehicle charging infrastructure primarily relies on private-public partnerships.

51 California, United States of America Direct fiscal incentives to consumers California Vehicle Rebate Project: In 2016, the State of California came up with California Vehicle Rebate Project. Under this programme, a cash rebate of up to $5,000 on zero emission vehicles are given to the vehicles that the California Air Resources Board has approved or certified.

52 Bhutan... Direct fiscal incentives to manufacturers In 2014, Memorandum of Understanding signed between the Indian manufacturers. The government to bring electric buses and taxis. As on 2016, only 10 electric taxis in Thimpu. Sri Lanka Well designed fiscal policy for market transition

53 Cost curve to get lower In the long run, both BEV (100- mile range) and fuel cell vehicles should be cheaper than conventional vehicles Even with low battery costs, PHEV always command a significant cost penalty 53 Greene et al (2014) Transitioning to Electric Drive Vehicles. National Research Council (2013) Transitions to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels

54 Challenges of in-use compliance Need new compliance ce regime e for in-use compliance ce During CSE s audit, it was found that a hybrid vehicle could not be tested as per idle emission check test procedure. Because the operator could not get the required RPM readings. Need scan of vehicle's On-Board Diagnostic (OBD) system. So the test procedure for hybrids does not include tailpipe emissions. There is an urgent need to develop new test protocol by involving OBD check.

55 India s opportunity and way forward India s trajectory can be different more public transport oriented for win- win solution -- Buses, feeders, taxis, autos, aggregators -- Bus strategy based on both short and long range; battery swapping/ dedicated charging/smart charging; support for fleet purchase etc -- Target polluting segment of two-wheelers wheelers mandate? -- Design incentives carefully to avoid unintended consequences -- Remove diesel mild hybrids from the list -- Link incentive with clear targets eg. Significantly better than the fuel economy standards and zero emissions target -- Establish criteria for eligibility for incentives; Need reliable and longer term incentives. But also cap incentive for gradual phase down. -- Technology development range, battery efficiency etc -- Apply polluter pay principle to create dedicated fund for supporting e-mobility -- Link electro mobility with pedetrianisation of city centre etc and public transport access -- Non fiscal incentives Public and private charging; adapt building code; link charging with parking infrastructure, safe battery recycling

56 Thank You 56