Mexico Automotive Outlook

Transcription

1 Mexico Automotive Outlook October, 217 Guido Vildozo, Senior Manager, Americas

2 Addressing strategic challenges with interconnected capabilities ENERGY CHEMICAL FINANCIAL MARKETS DATA & SERVICES ECONOMICS & COUNTRY RISK We deliver on the promise of The New Intelligence IHS Markit provides leaders from multiple industries with the perspective and insights they need to make the best choices and stay ahead of their competition. AUTOMOTIVE AEROSPACE, DEFENSE & SECURITY ENGINEERING & PRODUCT DESIGN OPERATIONAL RISK & REGULATORY COMPLIANCE MARITIME & TRADE DIGITAL & WEB SOLUTIONS TECHNOLOGY, MEDIA & TELECOM

3 3 Committed to Customers First Our mission is to delight our customers daily by delivering a powerful combination of world-class expertise, knowledge and solutions so they can make more informed decisions to enable their long-term, sustainable growth. 12,+ 13+ IHS Markit colleagues Offices in 34 countries Including,+ analysts, data scientists, financial experts and industry specialists Unsurpassed ability to interpret data Award-winning forecasting Relationships with industry leaders Traded on the Nasdaq under the INFO symbol Source: 217 IHS 217 Markit. IHS All Markit. Rights All Reserved. Rights Reserved.

4 IHS Markit Automotive provides a year legacy DRI and WEFA are founded. Later join to form Global Insight IHS acquires Global Insight IHS acquires CSM Worldwide IHS acquires isuppli IHS acquires IMS Research and BDW Automotive 196s Founded the modern economic forecasting industry including forecasts for Automotive Global Insight brings vehicle demand and production forecasts, component insight, and market awareness tool in addition to a host of country intelligence and industry insights Enhances demand, production, powertrain and components analysis Adds vehicle technology analysis featuring infotainment & safety systems Enhances vehicle technology analysis and adds consumer surveys Adds network planning and performance management capabilities

5 and is positioned to support the industry s future! IHS acquires RL Polk IHS acquires CARFAX IHS acquires CARPROOF IHS merges with Markit Ltd. to become IHS Markit In July 213, IHS acquired RL Polk, including both Polk and CARFAX. IHS Automotive comprises over 8+ colleagues located in 3+ offices in 14 countries across 4 continents. 21 In 21 IHS acquired CARPROOF Corporation, a Canada-based company that offers products and services in vehicle history, appraisal and valuation for the automotive industry 216 IHS Markit Automotive group is now the leading source of global light-vehicle registration, sales, production and vehicles-in-operation data and forecasts IHS Markit acquires automotive Mastermind 217

6 A trusted partner to clients success Our clients include: All 2 of the largest OEMs 92 of the top 1 Tier-1 Suppliers Our global list of over 6 clients accounts for Over 8% of the world's top OEMs and suppliers 216 IHS Markit All Rights Reserved

7 Agenda Global Outlook NAFTA Outlook Mexico Outlook Key Takeaways

8 Annual percent change Global growth forecasts expects BRICs to strengthen and mature markets to remain resilient Real GDP NAFTA Other Americas Western Europe Emerging Europe Mideast-N. Africa Sub- Saharan Africa Japan Other Asia- Pacific

9 Dollars/barrel 9 Oil prices gradually recover but remain moderate adjusted for inflation Price of Dated Brent crude oil Current US dollars 216 US dollars Source: IHS Markit 217 IHS Markit

10 Index, 29 = 1. 1 The dollar s real exchange rate value will depreciate in the medium term Real trade-weighted dollar index Major trading partners Other important trading partners Source: IHS Markit 217 IHS Markit

11 Tighter Regulations: What are automakers to do? Global vehicle CO 2 targets are now starting to converge, allowing for more global synergy and analysis What s at stake? 28 US (FTP7/US6) 26 Europe (NEDC) Japan (JC8) 2 China (NEDC) 18 S.Korea (NEDC) Penalties for noncompliance * $ 4 billion Estimated incremental spend globally to 22. $ 8 billion estimated average annual per original equipment manufacturer (OEM). Brand image as a leader in technological advancements and environmental sustainability Vehicle profitability Market share * IEA World Energy Investment Outlook (International Energy Agency, World Energy Investment Outlook, OECD/IEA, Paris).

12 So, what s a ZEV? Hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) Plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) Note: ZEV = zero emissions vehicle.

13 Disruptive Toyota Honda Nissan Ford BMW Volkswagen Mazda Hyundai Lexus Audi 216 IHS 13

14 Source: Shutterstock Source: Shutterstock Source: Shutterstock Government / incentives Oil prices Products Six Stars of Alignment Battery evolution Infrastructure Consumer Photo By: Devin Lindsay Source: Shutterstock Photos by: Devin Lindsay

15 Biggest disruptor to Automotive Industry Paradigm Change and the Mobility Cube Solving the Automotive Rubik s Cube as new mobility ecosystems emerge New Form of mobility L (CaaRobot) Autonomous New customers PAC Disruptors Robo Taxis Automated e.g. Zip Car Car2go e.g. Uber, Lyft, Didi Driver is Person Car-Share Ride-Hail Traditional Ownership model (CaaP) Sharing Economy (CaaS) CaaS car as a service CaaRobot car as a robot CaaP car as a product PAC - Personal Autonomous Car

16 Global sales approach 1M by end of the decade Global Light Vehicle Sales (Millions) Source: IHS Markit 29million 1million SUV Hatchback Sedan Pickup Chassis-Cab Van Coupe Roadster Convertible Wagon MPV IHS

17 SUV growth across different regions of the world SUV Share of Global Production 4% SUV Growth 3% (CAGR 217- Region 24) 3% Middle East/Africa 13.6% 2% South 2% America 11.7% South Asia 9.3% 1% Europe 4.6% Greater 1% China 4.4% North % America 2.3% Japan/Korea -1.3% % Grand Total 3.7% Source: IHS Markit 217 IHS

18 Iran Russia Brazil India Thailand Spain Italy Japan Canada France Indonesia Germany China Australia South Korea Mexico United States United Kingdom Turkey Saudi Arabia 217 is the year of the return of the BRICs; Mexico among top in 216 Annual LV sales change Top 2 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% -3% -4% Source: IHS Growth 216 Growth 217 Growth IHS

19 19 Light Vehicle Sales in Latin America Country CY 214 CY 21 P'1 CY 216 P'16 CY 217 P'17 CY 216 Dic1 MOE '16 Argentina 6, , % 674, % 89, % 79, % Brazil 3,333,82 2,48,2-2.6% 1,988, % 2,17,6 9.4% 2,1, % Chile 328, , % 34,626 7.% 3, % 262,7 16.2% Colombia 296,47 267,821-9.% 243, % 22,3 3.6% 264, % Ecuador 92,93 72, % 69,1-4.3% 96, 39.9% 81, % Mexico 1,13,29 1,31, % 1,61, % 1,7, % 1,399, % Peru 16,91 147,9-11.1% 14, % 172,1 11.8% 1, % 19

20 Mexico outlook summary Real GDP growth (%) Consumer price inflation (%) Source: IHS 216 IHS Source: IHS 216 IHS Exchange rate per US dollar* *Annual average, **Billions of US dollars Current-account balance** Source: IHS 216 IHS Source: IHS 216 IHS 2

21 21 Earthquakes impacted 8 States in Mexico States impacted account for 3% of GDP In these 8 states, 84% of business units did not suffer loses or altered their normal business operations Approximately % of impacted business units closed/stop only for 1 day Worst case scenario: GDP loses at.2-.3 of a percentage point Mexican States: share of GDP 2% 17% Source: IHS Markit 6% Chiapas Ciudad de México Guerrero México Morelos 1% 9% 1% 2% 3% % 217 IHS Markit

22 ene.-9 ene.-1 ene.-11 ene.-12 ene.-13 ene.-14 ene.-1 ene.-16 ene.-17 ene.-18 Millones 22 Mexico Light Vehicle Sales - SAAR Mexico LV PACE LV Source: IHS Automotive

23 23 Mexico Light Vehicle Sales Monthly Volumes 2, 2, 1, 1,, Thousand Units % Jan 119, ,26 3.% Feb 11, , % Mar 117, , % Apr 118, 114, % May 121,38 122, % Jun 134, ,41 -.3% Jul 13, ,11-7.3% Aug 133,8 12,331-6.% Sep 131, ,36-11.% Oct 137, ,99-3.9% Nov 14,219 13, % Dec 191,16 183,68-4.6% Total 1,61,28 1,7, % Source: IHS Automotive

24 24 YTD by Global Segment (August) Global Segment YOY INDUSTRY 986, ,661.3% C-Sedan 26,48 23, % B-Sedan 13, , % B-Hatchback 18,479 18, % C-SUV 1,497 96, % C-Pickup 79,698 8,381.9% B-SUV 44,61 72, % A-Hatchback 9,184 4, % D-SUV 3,111 28, % C-Hatchback 2,97 27, % D-Pickup 28,891 24, % D-Sedan 27,9 2, % D-Van 13,9 1, % Others 72,442 82, %

25 Millones 2 Mexico Light Vehicle Sales More credit/manufacturing bring us to new highs? Forecast calls for continued restriction of used cars % 2% 1% % -% -1% -2% -3% Light Veh -L Annual Change -R Source: IHS Automotive

26 26 CAGR by Segment-Bodytype 9.% 8.% CAGR CAGR CAGR % 6.%.% 4.% 3.% 2.% 1.%.% -1.% C-Sedan B-Sedan B- Hatchback C-SUV C-Pickup B-SUV A- Hatchback D-SUV C- Hatchback D-Pickup Total CAGR % 21.9% 1.2% 17.% 13.6% 79.1% 18.% -.2% 19.2% -.3% 12.1% CAGR % -.3% 1.9% 4.9% 1.% 3.8% -.% 6.7% -1.6% 2.2% 2.% CAGR % -.1% 1.% 3.9% 1.6% 3.3% -1.6%.2% 1.2% 2.% 1.9% Source: IHS Automotive

27 27 Mexico LV Market Share by Brand 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% % 4% 3% 2% 1% % Percentage Nissan, GM and VW will face competition Others Ram SEAT Renault Dodge Hyundai Mazda Ford Kia Honda Toyota Volkswagen Chevrolet Nissan There are 3 brands inside Others: Audi, Fiat, Suzuki, BMW, Jeep, Mercedes-Benz, Mitsubishi, Peugeot, Mini, GMC, Buick, Acura, Infiniti, Cadillac, Lincoln, Isuzu, Porsche, Volvo, Subaru, Chrysler, Land Rover, Smart, Alfa Romeo, Jaguar, Bentley, Others, Beijing Auto, FAW, Freightliner, Genesis, Hummer, Mercury, Pontiac, Saab and Tianjin Xiali. Source: IHS Automotive

28 28 Mexico Light Vehicle Sales Renault-Nissan Alliance 2% 1% 4 1% 8% 3 2 1% % % 6% 4% 1 -% 2% - -1% % Nissan Renault Mitsubishi Infiniti YOY C B D E HVAN Portfolio Age Source: IHS Automotive

29 29 Mexico Light Vehicle Sales General Motors Chevrolet GMC Buick Cadillac YOY 2% 2% 1% 1% % % -% -1% -1% -2% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % B A C D E HVAN Portfolio Age Source: IHS Automotive

30 3 Mexico Light Vehicle Sales Volkswagen Group, Jetta weakened 3 2% 1% % 1% % % -% VW SEAT Audi Porsche Bentley YOY 8% 6% 4% 2% % C B D E A F Portfolio Age Source: IHS Automotive

31 31 Mexico Light Vehicle Sales Hyundai Auto Group % 1% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% 8% 6% 4% 2% Kia Hyundai Genesis YOY % C B A D E Portfolio Age Source: IHS Automotive

32 32 Mexico Light Vehicle Sales Toyota Motor Corporation 12 3% 1% 1 2% 2% 8% 8 1% 6 1% 6% % 4 % 4% 2 -% -1% 2% - -1% Toyota YOY % C B D E Portfolio Age Source: IHS Automotive

33 33 Mexico Light Vehicle Sales Fiat Chrysler Automobiles 14 2% 1% 12 2% 1 1% 8% 1% 8 6% % 6 % 4 4% -% 2-1% 2% - -1% % Dodge Ram Fiat Jeep Chrysler Alfa Romeo YOY C D B A E HVAN Portfolio Age Source: IHS Automotive

34 34 Mexico Light Vehicle Sales Honda Motor Company 12 6% 1% % 1 4% 8% 8 3% 6 2% 6% 1% 4 % 4% 2-1% 2% - -2% % Acura Honda YOY B C D E Portfolio Age Source: IHS Automotive

35 3 Mexico Light Vehicle Sales Ford Motor Company 14 2% 1% 12 1% 1 1% 8% % 8 6% % 6 -% 4 4% -1% 2-1% 2% - -2% % Ford Lincoln YOY B D C E HVAN Portfolio Age Source: IHS Automotive

36 36 Mexico Light Vehicle Sales Mazda Motor Corporation 7 % 1% 6 4% 3% 8% 4 2% 6% 3 1% 2 % 4% 1-1% 2% - -2% % Mazda YOY C B D Portfolio Age Source: IHS Automotive

37 37 Mexico Light Vehicle Sales Bayerische Motoren Werke AG 2 2% 1% 2 2% 1% 8% 1 1% 6% 1 % % 4% -% 2% - -1% % Mini BMW YOY D C B E Portfolio Age Source: IHS Automotive

38 38 Mexico Light Vehicle Sales Suzuki 2 2% 1% 2 1% 8% 1 1 1% % % 6% 4% -% 2% - Suzuki YOY -1% % B C D Portfolio Age Source: IHS Automotive

39 39 Mexico Light Vehicle Sales Daimler AG 2 2% 1% 2 2% 8% 1 1 1% 1% % 6% 4% % 2% - Smart Mercedes-Benz YOY -% % D C E A HVAN F Portfolio Age Source: IHS Automotive

40 4 Mexico Light Vehicle Sales PSA Peugeot YOY 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % C B E D Portfolio Age Source: IHS Automotive

41 41 Key Takeaways Global growth is re-centered around BRICs (primarily China) China gives way to electric vehicles, will they hybrids come to Mexico? Relevance of production for local market may gain traction given FX/NAFTA Mexico 217 sales challenged by inflation, FX and financing Industry will grow at comparable pace to GDP SUV/CUV growth yes, but, primarily B-SUV due to new product influx Commercial Segments are ok (Vans/Pickups) Hyundai/Kia gain ground on SUVs and local product 41

42 42 Thank you, Muito obrigado, Muchas gracias! Guido Vildozo, Senior Manager Christopher Hopson, Manager Roberto Barros, Senior Analyst Joao Reboucas, Analyst Danny Blodgett, Analyst