Small Cars: Reality or Myth?

Transcription

1 Small Cars: Reality or Myth? Michael Robinet Director, Global Production Forecasts IHS Automotive February 24, 2011

2 Agenda Going Global US Sales Prospects NA Sourcing Summary

3 Global Scale High Volume, Global Platforms Top 10 by 2016 Segment (Top Nameplate) Honda - GSP Ford - B2e B (Fit) B (Fiesta) Every top 10 global platform has/will have exposure to North America Honda - C5 Hyundai - PB Ford - C1 MCA GM - Global Delta/D2XX Renault/Nissan - B VW - MQB A/B Hyundai - HD Toyota - MC-M C (Civic) B (Accent) C (Focus) C (Astra/Cruze) B (Versa/Clio) C/D (Golf) C (Elantra) 3.7 C/D (Camry) March of global platforms into developing markets accounts for overall growth Volume expansion also driven by major OEM platform consolidation in B- through D-segments and enhances design flexibility Platform consolidation alters competitive dynamic toward larger, more diversified players Millions 3

4 Global Segment Analysis Global Segments in Millions A B C D E F-F 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Segment Changes in % % North America shifted output from full-frame offerings to B-, C- and D-segment offerings, due to higher commodity costs and regulatory constraints. 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% A-Segment D-Segment B-Segment Full-Frame C-Segment The average age of core B-, C- and D-segment vehicles in the market will decline, due to consumer demand and requirements for integrating new fuel economy technologies. The B- and C-segments are the key growth markets in Brazil and China. Contribution to Growth

5 Global Light Vehicle Sales A Through C Segments Dominate CAGR ( ) 2.8% 5.8% Millions % 30 67% % % D-FFSegment Developed Mkts A-C Segment Developed Mkts D-FF Segment Emerging Mkts A-C Segment Emerging Mkts 5

6 Agenda Going Global US Sales Prospects NA Sourcing Summary

7 Dimension Creep Honda Civic 1978 OAL* 150, WB** OAL 163, WB OAL 175, WB OAL 177, WB 106 Honda Accord 1978 OAL 163, WB OAL 180, WB OAL 189, WB OAL 194, WB 110 Smaller segment car sizes have inched up steadily over the past 30 years - and especially in the last 10 years. Today s Toyota Yaris 4-door B-Car is approximately the size of a 10-year-old Civic C-Car. OAL 169, WB 100 * OAL Overall Length; ** WB Wheel Base 7

8 Limits Of Consumer Pull Current Market Conditions Fuel prices: moderately stable; relatively low Constrained consumers However Price Per Barrel In US Dollars $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 Oil - WTI (US$ per barrel)

9 Profile Of American Drivers Gen X 20% Gen Y 11% Baby Boomer s 36% Depress 19% Quiets 14% Gen X 20% Gen Y 20% Depress 12% Baby Boomer s 34% Quiets 14% % will be under 50 years old Gen Y 29% Gen X 19% Depress 5% Quiets 13% Baby Boomer s 34% Gen Y 27% Gen Z 12% Gen X 18% Quiets 12% Baby Boomer s 31%

10 A-Segment Sales - US Thousands Despite the struggles of the only entry in this segment, the Smart ForTwo, more OEMs are bringing vehicles into this segment. Electrification will be prevalent Smart ForTwo Fiat 500 Chevy Spark Mitsubishi imiev Scion iq % Share of TIV 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Share of Market 10

11 B-Segment Sales - US 0.9 6% OEMs are introducing many new models but volume has never been particularly strong. 5% 0.8 Millions 0.7 4% % 0.4 2% Share of Market 1.0 1% % VW Nissan Honda Chrysler/Dodge Toyota Mitsibishi Chevrolet MINI Scion Mazda Ford BMW Suzuki Kia Smart % Share of TIV 11

12 C-Segment Sales - US % Model proliferation is high, content is emphasized 4.5 Millions % % % Share of Market 25% 4.0 5% % 2005 Other Audi Subaru Chevrolet Jeep Chrysler Mazda Honda Cadillac Scion Hyundai Ford Buick Mitsubishi Volkswagen Share of TIV 2013 Lexus Dodge Toyota Lincoln Kia Nissan 12

13 Agenda Going Global US Sales Prospects NA Sourcing Summary

14 A Through C-Segment Production - NAFTA 6 Growth in Mexico, import substitution, bodystyle proliferation, export opportunities and market dynamics drive a rising share in NAFTA 30% 5 25% Share of Production Millions 35% 4 20% 3 15% 2 10% 1 5% 0 0% Other OEMs Toyota Honda Share of NAFTA Output Fiat/Chrysler Volkswagen General Motors Hyundai Renault/Nissan Ford 14

15 Agenda Going Global US Sales Prospects NA Sourcing Summary

16 Summary Global platforms add a new dynamic export sourcing, greater economies of scale, increase content/value CAFE is a driver though ownership costs and demographics are also critical Demand from Mexico is a key anchor for B-segment volume in NAFTA Increased production flexibility reduces downstream risk versus last generation efforts

17 Thank You! Michael Robinet Michael.