Synopsis of the Automotive Industry with a focus on Latin America

Transcription

1 IHS AUTOMOTIVE Presentation Light Vehicle Forecasts Synopsis of the Automotive Industry with a focus on Latin America November, 2015 ihs.com Mexico City, Mexico Guido Vildozo Manager, Latin America guido.vildozo@ihs.com

2 November 2015 Contents Economic Outlook Global Automotive Industry Outlook Global Automotive Industry Outlook by OEM Latin American Automotive Industry Outlook Summary 2

3 Economic Indicators Guido Vildozo, Manager LatAm, , 3

4 GDP growth rate % Emerging market slowdown having global implications; commodity prices driven lower World economic growth rates November Source: IHS avg World United States World average 2015=2.5% Japan Eurozone Brazil Russia India China 4

5 Percent, Many markets showing weakening conditions; India/Eurozone improving November 2015 World industrial production September China India Japan Russia United States Source: IHS, three-month average, in percent, historical actuals and current estimate Brazil Eurozone 5

6 Percent, Most labor markets tightening; Russia/Brazil feeling impact of recession World unemployment rates November September China Japan Russia United States Source: IHS, monthly, in percent, historical actuals and current estimate Brazil Eurozone Germany 6

7 Percent, Low oil and commodity prices keeping inflation muted in mature markets World consumer prices November September China India Japan Russia United States Source: IHS, monthly, in percent, historical actuals and current estimate Brazil Eurozone 7

8 Percent, end of quarter The US Federal Reserve will lead in raising policy interest rates December increase is expected November 2015 Policy interest rates United States Eurozone Japan United Kingdom Source: IHS 8

9 Percent, end of quarter Policy interest rates in key emerging markets respond to inflation and exchange-rate pressures Policy interest rates 18 November * One-year loan rate Source: IHS Brazil Russia India China* 9

10 Global Automotive Industry Outlook Guido Vildozo, Manager LatAm, , 10

11 Light vehicle sales SAAR, millions sold Global light vehicle selling rates Upward momentum changed about one year ago World 70 World without China Source: IHS Automotive analysis, monthly data with X12 seasonal adjustment 11

12 Light vehicle sales SAAR, indexed 2007=1 Regional light vehicle selling rates Most emerging markets declining from recent peaks sales level Lehman collapse J/K China India ASEAN SA NA WE CE EE ASEAN C Europe E Europe Gr China India Japan Korea N America S America W Europe Source: IHS Automotive analysis, monthly data with X12 seasonal adjustment 12

13 Million units Global light vehicle sales outlook sales volume % West Europe North America Greater China South Asia Middle East/Africa Japan/Korea Central/East Europe South America

14 Million units Global sales September 2015 YTD Global Change For September 2015, global demand rose 2.0%, leading year-to-date demand to grow 0.9% to million units. The near-term outlook for China is less gloomy than for our previous forecast a consequence of modest tax cuts for passenger car purchases introduced by the government as a short-term economic stimulus. Our global sales forecast for full-year 2015 is set at million units, up by 0.5%, a mild upgrade compared with our previous forecast. This figure represents the lowest rate of growth in six years, with a mixed picture for global demand mature markets generally remaining in recovery or growth mode, while many emerging markets are struggling to maintain auto sales momentum. Until the end of the forecast horizon in 2021, global light vehicle sales are expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 2.6% to approach 103 million units. 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Year-on-year change 14

15 Market is flat in 2015, but weakness in emerging markets only temporary, however, recovery will take a while World light vehicle sales 50,000,000 45,000,000 40,000,000 35,000,000 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 Global sales remain at 86 million in 2015, but economic improvement will lift market 2% next year; long-term prospects unchanged 100 million in Market growth Mature 10% 12% 1% China 43% 26% 34% Emerging 39% -12% 48% Source: IHS Mature markets China Emerging markets 15

16 Russia Brazil Indonesia Thailand Japan Saudi Arabia World China Australia Canada Germany United States South Korea France United Kingdom India Italy Mexico Iran Turkey Spain Forecasted change in LV sales Top-20 light vehicle sales growth Emerging markets in decline, mature markets growing 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% -35% Worst markets of 2015 will improve in 2016; however, many of the stronger markets likely slow next year. Source: Top-20 sales markets, IHS Automotive 2015 and 2016 light vehicle sales forecasts 16

17 Presentation Name / Month 2015 Global Automotive Industry Outlook by OEM Guido Vildozo, Manager LatAm, , guido.vildozo@ihs.com 17

18 Share of OEM sales Greater China s share of OEMs global sales Dependence varies across automotive manufacturers 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Volkswagen and GM most dependent on China for sales while FCA is the least, but importance rising for all. 0% FCA Ford GM Honda Hy-Kia R/N Toyota VW Region Source: IHS Automotive 18

19 FCA Ford GM Honda Hy-Kia R/N Toyota VW Region FCA Ford GM Honda Hy-Kia R/N Toyota VW Region FCA Ford GM Honda Hy-Kia R/N Toyota VW Region FCA Ford GM Honda Hy-Kia R/N Toyota VW Region New World share of OEMs global sales Exposure to emerging markets varies greatly ASEAN 15% 13% 11% 9% 7% 5% 3% 1% -1% India 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% South America 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% All emerging markets 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 19

20 FCA Ford GM Honda Hy-Kia R/N Toyota VW Region FCA Ford GM Honda Hy-Kia R/N Toyota VW Region FCA Ford GM Honda Hy-Kia R/N Toyota VW Region FCA Ford GM Honda Hy-Kia R/N Toyota VW Region Old World share of OEMs global sales Many companies still heavily reliant on domestic sales North America Japan/Korea 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% % 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% West Europe 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% All developed markets 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 20

21 Millones Top 22 Automakers % % 10% CAGR 8% 6% 4% 2 2% 0 Volkswagen Toyota Ren/Nissan Hyundai GM Ford Honda FCA PSA Suzuki Daimler BMW GM-Wuling Changan Mazda Tata Geely BAIC Dongfeng Mitsubishi Great Wall Fuji Heavy 0% 21

22 Millones Opportunity Top 15 Gainers % 0.0 Daimler BMW Dongfeng Geely Ford PSA Suzuki FCA Tata GM Toyota Honda Hyundai Volkswagen Ren/Nissan 22

23 Million Units Supplier Dynamics Mega Platforms Drive Production Growth Automotive Industry Outlook / September % 60.0% % 50% 50.0% % 18% 27% 39% 40% 38% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% % Share of Global Output M+ Platform < 1M Platform Share 0.0%. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 23

24 Supplier Dynamics Top 10 Global Platforms 2022 Hyundai - PB/PB(2) Honda - CCA Ford - C1/C2 VW - MQB A0 Ren/Nissan - CMF-C/D GM - VSS-F B/C Toyota - NGA-C Hyundai - HD/AD Ren/Nissan - CMF-B VW - MQB A/B North America Exposure Segment (Top Nameplate) Millions Automotive Industry Outlook / September 2015 B (Accent) Nine of the Top-10 C/D (Civic/Accord) global platforms have or will have exposure to C/D (Focus/Fusion) North America in 2022 B (Polo) C (Sentra) B/C (Sonic/Cruze) C (Corolla) C (Elantra) B (Versa) C (Golf) The march of global platforms into developing markets accounts for overall growth Volume expansion also driven by major OEM platform consolidation in B- through D-segments Platform consolidation alters competitive dynamic toward larger, more diversified players. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 24

25 Presentation Name / Month 2015 Latin America Automotive Industry Outlook Guido Vildozo, Manager LatAm, , guido.vildozo@ihs.com 25

26 IHS has had a difficult time anticipating 2015 Continuous drop since the beginning of the year Presentation Name / Month ,0 IHS July 15 IHS June 15 IHS Mar 15 IHS Jan 15 3,0 3,3 3,3 3,05 3,08 2,68 2,70 2,54 2,43 3,4 3,15 2,78 2,48 3,6 3,25 2,91 2,58 3,7 3,37 3,08 2,74 2,

27 Presentation Name / Month 2015 Brazilian IHS Long Term Has R2 of.96; with current GDP/Wages, Driving Pop, Parc Total 3,328,017 2,890,587 2,951,443 3,093, Residual Actual Fitted 27

28 Presentation Name / Month 2015 Brazilian IHS Short Term Has R2 of.99; with Payment/Wages, Unemployment, IPI Total 3,328,017 2,450,665 2,100,042 2,220,108 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000, , ,000 80,000 40, ,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000-40,000-80, , Residual Actual Fitted 28

29 Mexico Light Vehicle Sales Margin of Error Actual 823, , ,335 1,063,361 1,135,290 Dec '09 766, , , , ,399 Dec '10 929, ,226 1,006,088 1,092,728 Dec '11 972,270 1,030,367 1,078,395 Dec '12 1,047,181 1,094,926 Dec '13 1,110,877 MOE Dec '09 7.5% 11.2% 13.3% 13.7% 13.2% Dec '10-2.7% 0.8% 5.7% 3.7% Dec '11 1.5% 3.2% 5.0% Dec '12 1.5% 3.6% Dec '13 2.1% 1 YR 2 YR 3 YR 4 YR Average MOE 3.1% 4.7% 8.0% 8.7% Solid track record anticipating future market developments! 29

30 Millones Mexico Light Vehicle Sales SAAR Million Units LV Sales (left scale) 30

31 Weakness/Volatility of FX: almost all across the region Volatility all over the region Brazil Mexico Argentina Peru Chile Colombia Uruguay 31

32 Latin America Light Vehicle Sales Outlook 2015 A difficult year to forecast! Vehicle Sales: Country CY 2014 CY 2015 P'15 CY 2016 P'16 CY 2020 Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Ecuador Mexico Peru Venezuela 650, ,499 3,333,082 2,432, , , , ,004 92,930 93,491 1,135,029 1,307, , ,773 21,573 19, % -27.0% -20.2% -11.2% 0.6% 15.2% -12.1% -9.8% 579,740 2,100, , ,117 94,413 1,375, ,483 20, % -13.7% 0.0% 0.4% 1.0% 5.3% 3.2% 4.3% CY 2015 Dec14 703, ,345 2,873,097 3,250, , , , , ,943 70,175 1,451,555 1,170, , ,017 46,397 17,611 MOE ' % -25.1% -14.0% -17.9% 33.2% 11.6% -17.7% 10.5% 32

33 Latin America Light Vehicle Sales Outlook Sales by OEM Presentation Name / Month 2015 Vehicle Sales: Sales Parent CY 2014 CY 2015 P'15 CY 2016 P'16 CY 2020 General Motors -29.0% -11.8% 859, , , ,262 FCA -29.3% -8.2% 822, , , ,150 Volkswagen -29.4% -18.2% 736, , , ,838 Renault/Nissan -16.1% -2.1% 534, , , ,460 Hyundai -16.0% -7.0% 448, , , ,229 Ford -13.3% -8.5% 445, , , ,119 Toyota -10.3% -8.2% 346, , , ,578 PSA -29.7% -11.6% 213, , , ,095 Honda 6.1% 0.6% 156, , , ,423 33

34 Mexico Light Vehicle Sales SAAR (12MMA) vs. Consumer Confidence 1.4 Million Units Index LV Sales (left scale) Consumer Confidence 34

35 Mexico Light Vehicle Sales Credit is key to the market 35% 25% 15% 5% Financial Reform has helped ease credit plus Detroit Three banks are back (AUG) Finance Take 64.6% 59.5% 53.6% 48.6% 51.3% 52.5% 56.3% 60.1% 62.9% Units 35% 25% 15% 5% -5% -15% -25% -35% (AUG) -5% -15% -25% -35% DELTA TIV -R DELTA CR -R 35

36 Millones Mexico Light Vehicle Sales Used Car Imports Government has slowed used car imports drastically % Units 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% -100% (AUG) Light Veh -L DELTA USED -R DELTA TIV -R 36

37 Millones Mexico Light Vehicle Sales More manufacturing bring us to new highs? Forecast calls for opening of used cars around Light Veh -L Annual Change -R 35% 25% 15% 5% -5% -15% -25% -35% 37

38 Thank You, Muito Obrigado, Muchas Gracias! Guido Vildozo Manager, Latin America Vehicle Sales Roberto Barros Senior Market Analyst, Latin America Light Vehicle Sales

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