The Future of Transportation Transforming Road Transportation And Supply Networks

Transcription

1 The Future of Transportation Transforming Road Transportation And Supply Networks ClientConnect 2016 Lawrence D. Burns, Ph.D. April 19, 2016

2 1886: From Horses to Horsepower Karl Benz Patented First Gasoline Powered Automobile

3 Evolution Karl Benz s Gasoline Powered Car Bertha Benz s Drive (80 km) Speedometer & Steering Wheel First Modern Car (Mercedes)

4 Horatio s Drive Evolution Henry Ford Model T Automatic Starter Cross U.S. 63 days First Gas Station First Cross U.S. Highway Cross U.S. 5 Days

5 Evolution Automatic Transmission Air Conditioning Turn Signals First Traffic Light First Federal Gas Tax First Parking Meter

6 Evolution Catalytic Converter Direct Injection Engine Cruise Control Anti-lock Brakes Fatalities Per 100 M Miles U.S U.S. Interstate Highway Program Initiated Seat Belts

7 Evolution GPS Electronic Stability Control Telematics (OnStar) First Mass Produced Hybrid Adaptive Cruise Control Fatalities Per 100 M Miles U.S First Modern Electric Vehicle Large-Scale Shale Fracking

8 Evolution First Commercial Fuel Cell EV First Lithium Ion Battery EV Lane Keeping Assist Volt, Leaf & Tesla Model S Autonomous Vehicle Challenge Uber Founded First Self-Driven Vehicle on Public Roads (Google) $125/BBL Oil

9 Evolution Tesla Market Cap $30 B Uber $62 B Google Self-Driving > 1.3 M Miles Ford Smart Mobility Division Toyota Research Institute Fatalities Hottest Per Year in 100 M Miles History U.S. (1.25 M Deaths Worldwide) 17 M U.S. Auto Sales $30/BBL Oil GM Lyft Bolt Cruise Maven

10 Historical Automotive DNA Mechanical Drive Combustion Engine Oil-based Fuel Mechanical & Hydraulic Controls Stand-Alone Personally Owned Human Operated General Purpose

11 Compelling Freedom 1 Billion Automobiles Worldwide!

12 Serious Side Effects Safety: 1.2 M roadway fatalities worldwide Energy: 95% dependent on oil Congestion: Traffic delays Parking: Land use, delays, cost Environment: CO2 emissions Infrastructure: Aging and costly

13 Evolution or Transformation?

14 Transforming Mobility

15 New Automotive DNA Historical Mechanical Drive Combustion Engines Oil-based Fuels Mechanical & Hydraulic Stand-alone Personally Owned Human Operated General Purpose New Electrical Drive Electric Motors Diverse Energy Sources Electronic & Digital Connected and Coordinated Shared Driverless Tailored

16 Transformational Opportunity Connected + Coordinated + Shared + Driverless + Tailored

17 Connected & Coordinated Vehicles Consumer Benefits Lower Cost Insurance Crash Avoidance Hands-free calling Navigation Emergency response Stolen car recovery Concierge services Black-box crash recorders Remote software upgrades Traffic/road conditions Enhanced situation awareness Less risk overall Business Opportunities Usage-based insurance (UBI) Driver Scores Advertisement/marketing Vehicle development Warranty cost reduction Vehicle diagnostics and prognostics Fleet management Infotainment Parking systems Road pricing Customer relationship management Shared Vehicle Mobility Services (Uber, Lyft, RelayRides, )

18 Shared

19 Driverless

20 Google Self-Driving Car

21 Tailored

22 Transformational Opportunity Connected + Coordinated + Shared + Driverless + Tailored Better Mobility Experiences at Radically Lower Societal and Consumer Cost

23 Better Mobility Experiences Safer More Convenient More Productive More Personalized More Affordable Improving All Attributes Simultaneously!

24 Lower Societal Cost Fewer Fatalities Fewer Injuries Less Energy Use Less CO 2 Emissions Less Congestion Better Land Use More Equitable Access Reducing All Side Effects Simultaneously!

25 Ann Arbor, Michigan USA 285,000 people 130 square miles 200,000 personally owned vehicles 120,000 used primarily within Ann Arbor 3.7 trips/vehicle per day Average trip 8.2 miles 16.3 min 30 mph 1.5 people Vehicles used an average of 60 minutes/day (4%)

26 Ann Arbor Results 18,000 driverless/shared/tailored vehicles can provide same mobility as 120,000 conventional vehicles Reduce out-of-pocket cost by 75% Respond to trip requests in < 2 minutes Minimize empty miles to 0.02/loaded mile Eliminate parking cost, inconvenience and land use Time not spent driving is added benefit * *Source: AAA

27 U.S. Time Value Opportunities At 30 miles/hour Minimum Wage $7.50/hour = $0.25/mile Median Income $25.00/hour = $0.83/mile 90 th Percentile Income $50.00/hour = $1.67/mile

28 $/Mile Lower Consumer Cost $1.60 Time Value = Median Wage ($25/hr) Cost/Mile Title $1.00 Time Value = $2 to $4 Trillion Minimum Wage Per Year In U.S. $0.75 $0.25 Time Cost Money Cost 0 Driver/Personal/Conventional Driverless/Shared/Tailored

29 Business Model Innovation Historical Sell Vehicles, Gasoline and Insurance New Sell Miles, Trips and Experiences

30 3 trillion miles/year X $0.01/mile $30 billion/year

31 Possible Mobility Futures VEHICLE USE Personal Shared VEHICLE CONTROL Driverless Driver

32 Possible Mobility Futures VEHICLE USE Personal Shared VEHICLE Driverless New Automobile Age New Mobility Age CONTROL Driver Current Automobile System New Mobility Markets

33 New Automobile Age Could a Driverless Vehicle Cost Less Than a Comparable Person Driven Vehicle? Parts Added Might Cost Less Than Parts Removed Added: Sensors, Processors and Software Removed: Steering Wheel, Brake and Accelerator Pedals, Instruments/Gauges, Some Airbags Tailored Vehicles Could Have Less Material and Fewer Parts Two-person tailored vehicle could weigh 70% less and have 90% fewer parts! New Ways to Serve People Not Owning Automobiles Today Driven by Design, Brands and Fashion

34 New Mobility Age Driverless-Shared Tops Driver-Shared Labor Savings Another Seat for a Rider No Need to Interact With Driver Driverless-Shared Tops Driverless-Personal Higher Capital Utilization Lower Depreciation Cost/Mile Greater Convenience No Parking No Fueling No Shopping (for vehicle, financing, insurance) No Maintenance No Tickets Auto Industry Impact Could be Profound

35 Possible Mobility Futures VEHICLE USE Personal Shared VEHICLE Driverless New Automobile Age New Mobility Age CONTROL Driver Current Automobile System New Mobility Markets

36 Transforming Logistics

37 Another Transformational Opportunity Efficient + Connected + Coordinated + Driverless + Tailored Better Logistics Services at Lower Operating and Societal Cost

38 U.S. Truck Fuel Economy Regulations By 2018, Fuel Use and GHG Emissions Must be Reduced 20% Per Ton-Mile for Combination Tractors 15% Per Mile for Heavy Duty Pick-Up Trucks and Vans 10% Per Ton-Mile for Vocational Vehicles

39 SuperTruck Focused on Class 8 long-haul clean diesel-powered trucks Achieve 50% increase in ton-miles per gallon ( 33% reduction in gallons per ton-mile) Integrate technologies and demonstrate system level improvements

40 Connected and Coordinated Ubiquitous sensors Big data analytics Real-time situation awareness Integrated intermodal systems Faster more reliable deliveries Better equipment and workforce utilization Better performance measurement Enhanced shipper/carrier collaboration Usage-based road pricing (location, time and weight)

41 Truck Automation Projects Mercedes Future Truck 2025 KONVOI (EU) SARTRE (EU) UC Berkeley-PATH (USA) NEDO (Japan-ITS Energy) SCANIA Transport Lab(EU) AMAS (US Army) FHWA (US DOT initiated) Peloton I-69 Corridor.. Unclassified

42 Mercedes Future Truck 2025 Photo Source: Motor Trend s Truck Trend Autonomous driving will revolutionize road freight transport reduce the number of truck crashes create major benefits for everyone involved change the role of drivers in the future make truck driving a more attractive profession

43 Impact on Cost of Trucking Cost % % Saving Potential Fuel Driver Truck Cab & Trailer Repairs & Maintenance 8 - Insurance 4 50 Tires 2 - Permits/Licenses/Tolls 3 - Total 100% 47% Potential for 40-50% Cost Reduction!

44 Impact on Trucking Service Today Driver restricted 11 hours of driving in 14 hour period followed by 10 hours rest = 660 miles in 24 hours * 70 hours of driving in 8 consecutive days = 4200 miles * Assuming average speed of 60 mph

45 Impact on Trucking Service Today Driver restricted 11 hours of driving in 14 hour period followed by 10 hours rest = 660 miles in 24 hours * 70 hours of driving in 8 consecutive days = 4200 miles Tomorrow Driverless unrestricted 22 hours driving per day** = 1320 miles in 24 hours * 176 hours of driving in 8 days = miles * Assuming average speed of 60 mph ** Assuming 2 hours per day for maintenance and fueling

46 Daily Truck Service Area 660 miles 1320 miles Daily Service Area Grows 4X!

47 Global E-Commerce: Growing Fast

48 Home Delivery UPS, FedEx, USPS 3,000-10,000 lb. trucks with lb. drivers delivering 1-5 lb. packages! Could small robots be used instead someday? Amazon Direct Delivery, Google Express, UberEats, Drones

49 The Last Mile : Starship Technologies Skype Co-Founders Autonomous Robots 4 MPH 2 Grocery Bags (20 lbs) 5-30 Minute Deliveries < 10% Cost of Current Alternatives

50 The Last Mile : Domino s Pizza DRU (Domino s Robotic Unit) Military Robot Technology 12 Mile Range on Full Charge 12 MPH on Sidewalks Hot Food and Cold Drinks < 30 Minute Deliveries Lidar, GPS and Google Maps

51 Intermodal Terminals and Ports

52 Ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles Container Demand (TEUs) Today 14 M Future 40 M Truck Traffic (I-710 Daily Trips) Today 25,000 Future 80,000

53 Challenges Throughput bottlenecks Truck traffic side effects Poorly synchronized supply chain flows Multiple handling of containers Intermodal transfers Freight consolidation Port productivity

54 Throughput Improvement Opportunities Connected and Autonomous Trucks Enhanced Information and Communications Systems Ubiquitous Sensors Big Data and Advanced Analytics Innovative Container Handling Systems Intermodal Logistics Coordination System System Throughput Improvement Process

55 Possible Trucking Futures TRUCK DESIGN Historical Tailored VEHICLE Driverless New Trucking Age New Logistics Age CONTROL Driver Current Trucking System Improved Trucking System

56 Possible Trucking Futures TRUCK DESIGN Historical Tailored VEHICLE Driverless New Trucking Age New Logistics Age CONTROL Driver Current Trucking System Improved Trucking System

57 Evolution or Transformation?

58 Faster Evolution + Transformation New Opportunities Some Big Winners Many Losers

59 Key Questions Who? How? When? Not Whether?

60 Who Mobility & Logistics Eco-System People: Mobility Experiences - Safe, Spontaneous, Responsive, Seamless, Compelling, Affordable, Secure Brands Customer Interfaces Employees Driverless, Connected, Tailored Vehicles (Robots) Maintenance/Fueling Customer Apps Back Office Systems Driverless & Connected Vehicle Systems Propulsions Systems Digital Maps Lasers, Radars, Cameras Processors Controllers & Actuators Infrastructure Innovators - Roads - Scientists - Communications - Engineers - Energy - Entrepreneurs Public Policy CUSTOMERS SERVICE PROVIDERS Goods: Delivery Services - Safe, Timely, Convenient, Reliable, Efficient, Secure Business Models Operating Systems Service Capabilities TIER 1 SUPPLIERS TIER 2 SUPPLIERS - Information Management - Dispatch - Financial - Customer Relations Business Analytics ( Big Data) Designers (Vehicles & Experiences) TIER 3 SUPPLIERS Software Algorithms Sensors Motors SYSTEM ENABLERS Workforce - Education - Training Energy - Supply - Storage Materials Standards and Regulations Risk Management Financing

61 How Several Possible Futures Will Mature Simultaneously Incumbents vs. Disruptors Vested Interests vs. New Winners

62 When Sooner Connected Vehicles Coordinated Vehicles Shared Vehicles Self-Driving Features Lower Mass Vehicles Significant Hybrid Share Platooned Trucks Smart Parking Systems Real-Time Traffic Control Improved Safety Later Internet of Things Integrated Intermodal System Driverless-Shared Fleets Driverless Vehicles Tailored Vehicles Significant Electric Vehicle Share Driverless Trucks Significantly Less Parking Real-Time Situation Awareness > 90% Fewer Crashes

63 The Ultimate Vision One Totally Integrated Transportation System Simultaneously choreograph the seamless movement of people and goods across all modes Safely Spontaneously Responsively Conveniently Timely Integrated information systems Reliably Affordably Efficiently Securely Sustainably Integrated communications systems Optimized flows based on real-time information Enhanced robustness based on better capacity utilization

64 My Perspective Are driverless vehicles real? Yes If so, when? Possibly by 2018 Does it matter? The consumer, business and societal opportunities are compelling

65 Deeply Understand What Is Possible New Technology New Business Models Opportunities Threats

66 Get in Front of the Inevitable 2016 Faster Evolution + Likely Transformation 2025 What must be true for possible futures to tip? Are you at risk of being disrupted? How much time do you have to prepare? Should you change your strategy? Who might you collaborate with? What new knowledge do you need?

67 Do Unto Yourself Before Others Do Unto You

68 The Future of Freight Transportation is Compelling! Safer Lower cost Faster deliveries More frequent deliveries More reliable performance Higher throughput More integrated supply chains