BBL on Infrastructure Safety Management Current and Best Practices

Transcription

1 BBL on Infrastructure Safety Management Current and Best Practices Said Dahdah Road Safety Specialist May 20, 2010

2 Infrastructure Safety Management Yes New Road? No Road Safety Audit (RSA) Yes Do you have accident data? No Blackspot Management (BSM) Network Safety Management (NSM) Road Safety Inspection (RSI) Road Safety Audit Guidleines Road Safety Manuals Road Safety Inspection Guidelines

3 Black Spot Management (BSM) 1- Simple Numerical Definition: A Black Spot is any location with a maximum length of X m at which at least Y accidents have been recorded last Z years 2- Accident Rate Definition: A Black Spot is any location at which the number of accidents per million veh-km for the last Y years, exceeds the value of Z 3- Statistical Definition: Comparison of the recorded number of accidents to a normal number for a similar type of location ( Empirical Bayes EB estimate)

4 Limitations of traditional approaches in identifying Black Spots Groups according to the expected number of accidents Count Total Total False Positives BS 28 Correct Positives BS 66 Identified BS

5 Evaluation of the effectiveness of black spot treatment

6 Black Spot Management (BSM) Country Reference to population of sites Sliding Window applied Reference to normal level of safety Recorded or expected number of accidents Accident severity considered Length of identifica tion period Austria No Yes, 250m Yes, critical values for accident rate Recoreded >=3 Function of traffc volume No 3 Years Denmark Yes Yes, variable length Yes, accident prediction models Recorded, statistical test No 5 years Germany No No, accident maps inspected No Recorded minimum value of 3 or 5 Yes 1 year (all acc) or 3 years ( injury acc) Hungary No Yes, 100m or 1000m No Recorded, minimum 4 No 3 years Norway No Yes, 100m (spot) or 1000m (section) Yes,by means of normal accident rates Recorded higher than normal by statistical test ( 4 or 10) Yes, by estimating accident costs 5 years

7 Regression-to-mean

8 Regression-to-mean

9 Theoretical Definition of a Black Spot A road accident black spot is any location that: 1. Has a higher expected number of accidents, 2. Than other similar locations, 3. As a result of local risk factors Hence, The Empirical Bayes (EB) method should be used

10 From Black Spot Management (BSM) to Network Safety Management (NSM) TRADITIONAL APPROACH RECOMMENDED APPROACH

11 Network Safety Management A modern replacement to traditional BSM Identification and treatment of hazardous road sections: any section 2-10 km that has a higher number of crashes than similar road sections May require traffic data

12 Cumulative traffic volume or social cost (%) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Network social cost density TARGETING HIGH CONCENTRATIONS OF DEATHS AND INJURIES 20% of roads account for 79% of traffic and 87% of social cost of crashes 10% of roads account for 56% of traffic and 74% of social cost of crashes 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Cumulative road length (%) Social cost of crashes Traffic volume

13 Network Safety Management (NSM), EuroRAP Method 1. Links are distingful to road users and have similar charactersitics ( number of lanes, traffic volume..) 2. Sections Averaging 30 km in length 3. Each section is long enough to have at least 20 KSI accidents in last 3 years 4. Minimize extend that risk would be influenced by randon distribution 5. True representation of long term average

14 Network Safety Management (NSM), EuroRAP Method 1. Individual Risk : Risk per Vehicle km 2. Collective Risk : a) Crash Density : Rate per km b) Crash rate in relation to similar roads c) Potential for crash reduction Color Coded Maps

15 EuroRAP Risk Maps

16 EuroRAP Risk Maps

17 FY Blackspot Programs AFR Road Dev Phase 2 APL Uganda Jinja Road ( 71 km) and Entebbe 3.08 Road ( 37 km) EAP CN-2nd Anhui Hwy China Black Segment and 13 Black Spots EAP Second Xinjiang Highway Project China less Black Spots EAP CN-Fujian II Highway China BS on 100 km of NR324 EAP CN-3rd Xinjiang Hwy Project China less 2.0 BS on S201 EAP Tri-Provincial Hwy China Black Spots EAP CN-ANHUI PROVL HWY China 2.7 EAP CN-Nat Hwy4/Hubei-Hunan China 120 Black Spots on NH107 EAP Guangxi Highway China Black Spots EAP CN-Inner Mongolia Hwy Project China Black Spots EAP CN-Hubei Xiaogan Xiangfan Hwy China EAP EAST. IND. REGIONAL Indonesia TRANSPT EAP VN-ROAD SAFETY VIETNAM 0 ECA ROAD MAINT Albania 17 km barriers instead of 60 Black 3.51 Spots ECA TRANSPORT Armenia 2.5 s ome ECA HIGHWAY Azerbaijan ECA ROAD MGMT SAFETY Bosnia- Herzegov ECA Rijeka Geteway Croatia Black Spots ECA HIGHWAY Latvia Black Spots ECA HIGHWAY Lithuania 5 ECA ROAD MAINT & REHAB Poland less 5.0 ECA ROADS 2 Romania Black Spots LCR NATIONAL HWY. PROJ. Dominican Repub SAR Third Road Rehabilitation & Maintenance Banglades h Black Spots SAR UP ROADS India Black Spots SAR KARN HWYS India Black Spots SAR KERALA STATE TRANSPORT India 3.7 SAR MUMBAI URBAN TRANSPORT India PROJECT SAR MIZORAM ROADS India 1.06 SAR Tamil Nadu Roads India SAR HIGHWAYS REHAB Pakistan 25.8 N-5 and M-9

18 FY Corridor Improvement Georgia East-West Highway Improvement 3 ( E60) : Concept but no commitment to invest ( It is assumed that Road Safety Audit results are implemented ) ( BAU) Argentine Road Safety Project : Implement irap recommendations ( Best Practice) Safe and Sustainable Transport Project in Peru : Implement irap recommendations ( Best Practice)

19 Black Spot Program under RSIP Region No Spots Accidents Fatalities Injuries Contract No value $ value/contract Transcarpathian ,534,643 Volyn ,736,396 Rivne ,907,889 16,178,928 Chernivtsi ,326,907 Khmelnytsk ,395,246 Ternopil ,363,871 15,086,024 Zhytomyr ,179,366 Kyiv ,487,084 Cherkasy ,952,712 25,619,162 Chernigiv ,901,099 Sumy ,792,238 Poltava ,878,410 39,571,747 Kharkiv ,614,341 Dnipropetrovsk ,477,884 Zaporizhya ,954,678 Lugansk ,749 6,604,651 Odessa ,059,272 Vinnytsia ,030,213 6,089,486 Crimea ,855,118 10,855,118 Kherson ,710,662 Crimea ,645,377 12,356,039 Total ,361,155

20 Continued.. Phase 1 Phase2 Contract Accidents Fatalities Contract Value ($) ,604, ,089, ,855, ,356, ,178, ,086, ,619, ,571,747 Total ,361, ' $/Fatality 000 $/Accident

21 Continued.. Phase 2 value is 2.75 times Phase 1 Phase 2 Fatalities are 1.6 times Phase 1 Fatalities Phase 1: 145 Fatalities and $ 36 million Added spots 32 fatalities and $ 46 million (000, US) Fatalites/5y Lots , Lots , Added Spots 46, Total 132,

22 Economic Evaluation of The Black Spot Program of RSIP PVC PVB NPV BCR IRR Fatality/Year Phase1 35,905,294 59,054,971 23,149, % 29 Phase2 96,455,860 95,302,505-1,153, % 47 New Spots 46,656,718 13,032,821-33,623, % 6 Total 104,560, ,425,863 36,865, % 76 Serbia 159,000, ,000, ,000, % 122 Network Safety Management of 3,000 km

23 Cumulative traffic volume or social cost (%) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Network social cost density TARGETING HIGH CONCENTRATIONS OF DEATHS AND INJURIES 20% of roads account for 79% of traffic and 87% of social cost of crashes 10% of roads account for 56% of traffic and 74% of social cost of crashes 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Cumulative road length (%) Social cost of crashes Traffic volume

24 EuroRAP Risk Maps

25 Bank Best Practice Case Study : National Highway 1, Delhi to Panipat 86km 96km Toll road Two, 2-lane periphery roads Divided 3-lane, access-controlled 5 deaths in 2008 (0.5/km) 42,000 vpd (20% m/c) 27km 86km Divided 6-lane 16km - 29km 2-lane divided Divided 8-lane (complete Sep 10) 8km 16km Divided 8-lane 15 deaths in 2008 (1.9/km)

26 Project Plan Safer Roads Investment Plan: affordable, cost effective infrastructure improvements Jan 10 Implementation Inspect road network Dec 09 Star Rating roads Jan 10 Local assessment of SRIP June 10 Opening workshop Dec 09

27 Inspection vehicle at workshop

28 Inspection vehicle 3 high-resolution digital cameras Digital images collected with a 150- to 180-degree field of view at 10 m intervals. Geo-reference data collected for each digital image Images were calibrated to enable detailed measurements of the road features capability for automated measurements of radius of curvature for horizontal curves

29 Rating 50 road attributes assessed at 100m intervals

30 Star Ratings Vehicle occupants - majority (81%) 4-star Motorcyclists - majority (52%) 3-star Bicyclists - majority (63%) 2-star Pedestrians - majority (65%) 2-star.

31 RPS for vehicle occupants

32 Countermeasure programme Rupees $US Investment Rs lakh $22.5 million Deaths and serious injuries prevented (20 years) Economic benefit (20 years) Rs lakh $125 million Cost per death and serious injury prevented Rs $3 100 Benefit cost ratio 6 6 Reduction in deaths and serious injuries 22% 22%

33 Countermeasure programme