Mass Rapid Transit Authority of Thailand

Transcription

1 Mass Rapid Transit Authority of Thailand March 2016 M.R.T. Project Development Department Project Analysis Section 1

2 Government Agency Office of Ministry of Transport Office of Transport and Policy Planning Department of Highway Department of Rural Highway Department of Land Transport Marine Department Department of Civil Aviation State Enterprise Expressway Authority of Thailand Bangkok Mass Transit Authority Transport Co.,Ltd. Mass Rapid Transit Authority of Thailand State Railway of Thailand Airport Rail Link Co., Ltd. Port Authority of Thailand Thai-Amadeus Southeast Asia Co.,Ltd. Thai Airways Int l PCL Thai Smile Airways Airport of Thailand PCL Aeronautical Radio of Thailand Civil Aviation Training Center Suvarnabhumi Airport Hotel Co.,Ltd. 2

3 Ministry of Transport : MOT Office of Transport and Traffic Policy and Planning (OTP) (Governmental Agency) Mass Rapid Transit Authority of Thailand (MRTA) (State Enterprise under Supervision of MOT) Implement of the rail mass rapid transit in Bangkok and other provinces State Railway of Thailand (SRT) (State Enterprise under Supervision of MOT) Implement of the rail (MRT & Commuter Train) along the existing rail corridor throughout Thailand Airport Rail Link Co., Ltd. (ARL) (State Enterprise under Supervision of MOT) Operate existing Suvarnabhumi Airport Rail Link Study and Plan for Transport System Provide Mass Rapid Transit Master Plan Bangkok Metropolitan Administration : BMA (Local Governmental Agency) Implement of the rail mass rapid transit in Bangkok k 3

4 Mission of MRTA 1 Operate Mass Transit System in Bangkok and vicinities 1. Operate Mass Transit System in Bangkok and vicinities including other provinces 2. Study, Analyze and Prepare Mass Transit Project including Research and Development 3. Carry on Business that benefit to passengers

5 Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR) BMR TOTAL AREA 7,785 sq.km., Population 17.5 Millions, GDP 68% of National GDP BMR AREA Pathum Thani Nakhon Pathom Nonthaburi 85 km. Bangkok Samut Sakhon Samut Prakan 115 km. 5

6 Mass Rapid Transit Network 6

7 Primary Line 1. Dark Red Line (Thammasat - Mahachai) 4. Dark Green Line ((Lamlukka Mochit Bearing-Samut g prakarn)) p Feeder Line 9. Pink Line (Khaerai - Minburi) 7. Purple line (Bangyai - Ratburana) 8. Orange Line (Talingchan - Minburi) 2. Light Red Line (Salaya - Huamark) 3. Airport Rail Link (Bangsue Phayathai-Suvarnabhumi) 5. Light Green Line (Yotse - Bangwa) 6. Blue Line 10. Yellow Line (Ladphrao - Samrong) (Bangsue Hualamphong Thaphra-Phutthamonthon 4) 7

8 North Purple Line (Bang Yai Bang Sue) North Green Line (Mochit - SaphanMai - Kukot) North Green Line (Kukhot - Lumlukka) Pink Line (Khaerai Minburi) West Orange (Taling Chan-Thailand Cultural Centre) West Blue Line (Bang Sue - Thaphra) (Hua Lamphong - Bangkhae) (Bangkhae - Phutthamonthon Sai 4) South Purple Line (Taopun - Ratburana) East Blue Line Chaloem Ratchamongkhon Line East Orange Line (Thailand Cultural Centre - Minburi (Suwinthawong)) Yellow Line (Ladprao - Samrong) South Green Line (Samut Prakan Bangpu) South Green Line (Bearing - Samut Prakan) 8

9 Status Projects Distance Construction Start Operation (km.) (m-y) (m-y) Current path Chaloem Ratchamongkhon Line Jun 04 Under Purple Line :Bang Yai Bang Sue 23 Nov 09 Aug 16 Construction (81 km.) Blue Line : Hualamphong Bangkae Bang Sue Thaphra Apr 11 Apr 11 May 20 May 20 Green Line : Baering Samutprakan 13 Mar 12 Aug 20 Mochit - Khukot 18 Jun 15 Aug 20 Start tendering on Orange Line :Thailand Cultural Centre Minburi 21 Oct 16 Jun Pink Line : Khaerai Minburi (110 km.) Yellow Line : Ladprao Samrong Purple Line : Tao Pun Rat Burana Apr 17 Arp 17 Feb 17 Jul 20 Jul 20 Oct 22 Start tendering Orange Line :Talingchan Thailand Cultural Centre 18 May 17 Jan 23 since 2017 (41 km.) Blue Line : Bangkae Phuttamonthon Sai 4 Green Line : Samutprakan Bang Pu Khucot - Lamlukka Jun 17 Dec 17 Dec 17 Jun 21 Dec 21 Dec 21

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11 Opened to public : on July 3 rd, 2004 Underground heavy rail system with the 20 km length and 18 stations Investment scheme : PPP Net Cost Concessionaire : BMCL (25 years) Total project cost is 106,311 M. Baht Average ridership : 250, trips/day 11

12 Purple Line North Section Green Line North Section Blue Line Extension Green Line South Section 12

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14 Project Details Cost Bangyai Bangsue Elevated MRT (Heavy Rail) with 23 km length and 16 Stations (1 depot 4 Park & Ride Bldg.) 63, Million Baht Construction November 2009 Start t Operation August2016 Contract 1-3,6 Contract 4 Contract 5 Status (January 2016) Construction 100% completed M&E works (89.97% Completed) The cabinet assigned PPP Policy Committee negotiate with BEM. 14

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16 Hualamphong-Bangkae and Bangsue-Thaphra Project Details Cost Construction April 2011 Start Operation May 2020 Hualamphong-Bangkae Section - Underground MRT with 5 km length and 4 stations - Elevated MRT with 9 km length and 7 stations Bangsue-Thaphra Section - Elevated MRT with 13 km length and 10 stations 82, Million Baht Status (January 2016) Contract 1-5 Contract 6 Under construction (72.06% completed) PPP Policy Committee adjourn PPP fast track plan, the PPP report will be presented on April

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18 Project Details Cost Bearing Samutprakarn Elevated MRT with 13 km length and 9 stations 27, MB M.Baht Construction March 2012 Start Operation August 2020 Status (January 2016) Contract 1-2 under construction (77.25% completed) 18

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20 Project Details Cost Mochit Saphanmai Khukot Elevated MRT with 18.2 km length and 16 stations 58, M.Baht Construction June 2015 Start Operation August 2020 Status (January 2016) Civil works under construction (3.20% completed) 20

21 Pink Line Orange Line East Section Purple Line South Section Yellow LIne 21

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23 Thailand Cultural Centre Minburi Project Details Cost Underground structure for 12.2 km and 10 Stations Elevated structure for 9 km and 7 Stations 110, Million Baht Construction October 2016 Start Operation June 2022 Status (January 2016) Cabinet on 8 Dec. 15 approved in principle of Project Implementation and approved Land Acquisition Budget. It is expected the Cabinet will approve Civil Works at the beginning of March

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25 Khaerai Minburi Project Details Straddle monorail system with 34.5 km length and 30 stations Cost 56, Million Baht Construction April 2017 Start Operation July 2020 Status (January 2016) Waiting for PPP Policy Committee and Cabinet approval of Project investment scheme in accordance with PPP Act B.E

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27 Project Details Cost Construction April 2017 Start Operation July 2020 Ladprao Samrong Straddle monorail system with 30.4 km length and 23 stations 54, Million Baht Status (January 2016) Waiting for PPP Policy Committee and Cabinet approval of Project investment scheme in accordance with PPP Act B.E

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29 Tao Pun Ratburana Project Details Underground d structure t for 12.6 km and 10 Stationsti Elevated structure for 11 km and 7 Stations Cost 131, Million Baht Construction February 2017 Start Operation October 2022 Status (January 2016) Waiting for Cabinet approval of Civil Works 29

30 Green Line North Extension to Lamlukka Orange Line West Section Blue Line Extension to Budhamonthon Sai 4 Green Line South Extension to Bangpu 30

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32 Project Details Cost Talingchan -Thailand Cultural centre Construction May 2017 Underground structure for 18.2 km. with 12 stations 85, Million Baht Start Operation January 2023 Status (January 2016) During feasibility study, EIA report and tender document preparation 32

33 Bangkae - Phutthamonthon Sai 4 Project Details Cost Elevated MRT with 8 km length and 4 stations 21,223 Million Baht Construction June 2017 Start Operation June 2021 Status (January 2016) During feasibility study, EIA report and tender document preparation 33

34 Samut Prakan (Bang Ping) Bang Pu Sawangkhanivat Muaeng Boran Project Details Elevated MRT with 7 km length and 4 stations Cost 13, Million Baht Sichanpradit Construction December 2017 Bangpu Start Operation December 2021 Tamru Status (January 2016) - EIA Approved - during feasibility study review and tender document preparation 34

35 Project Details Cost Khukot Lamlukka Elevated MRT with 8 km length and 4 stations 11, Million Baht Construction December 2017 Start Operation December 2021 Status (January 2016) -EIA Approved -During feasibility study review and tender document preparation 35

36 Investment 36

37 Investment Scheme Public Private Partnership (PPP) : government & private sector share investment in each part Public Sector Comparator (PSC) : government invest 100% and may engage private sector to operate and maintain system Public Private Public Project Project

38 Level of PPP Investment Ratio Investment Ratio Low 1 PPP 2 PPP 3 PPP High Project Project Project Government Private sector Government Private sector Government Private sector Land Acquisition Civil Work M&E Rolling Stock Land Acquisition Civil Work M&E Rolling Stock Land Acquisition Civil Work M&E Rolling Stock ent Governm Land Acquisition Land Acquisition Land Acquisition Civil Work Civil Work M&E Pr rivate sector Civil Work M&E Rolling Stock M&E Rolling Stock Rolling Stock

39 PPP Scheme Nt Net Cost Concession Gross Cost Concession Modified Gross Cost Concession Private Revenue Share Public Private remuneration Public Private remuneration + Bonus Public Invest + Operation Cost Project Fare & Non Fare Revenue Invest + Operation Cost Project Fare & Non Fare Revenue Invest + Operation Cost Project Fare & Non Fare Revenue

40 Investment Scheme of Existing MRT Projects PPP SCHEME DESIGN BUILD FINANCE Operation (O) & Maintenance (M) Public M O Private REVENUE COLLECTion PSC Public PublicExisting Public Blue Line Public Public Public BTS Airport CIVIL WORKS GOVERNMENT PRIVATE SECTOR Rail Link PPP Public (CW) Public (CW) Public (CW) 1 Public Public Public Purple Line M&E Private WORKS (M&E) Private PRIVATE Private SECTOR PRIVATE SECTOR (BEM) (M&E) (M&E) PPP OPERATION Public (CW) Public (CW) 2 PRIVATE Public (CW) SECTOR Private Private PRIVATE Private SECTOR Blue Line Private (M&E) (BEM) Private (M&E) Private (M&E) NOTE PPP 3 Private Private Private Private Private Private BTS 3 CW = Civil Works, M&E includes Rolling Stock

41 Chaloem Ratchamongkhon Line PPP Net Cost (25 YEAR : ) Project Purple Line North Section Government Land Civil Work Acquisition Private sector Rolling E&M Stock PPP Gross Cost (30 YEAR : )

42 Investment Project Government Private Sector Operation Civil Work Trackwork Rolling Stock E&M O&M PPP Net Cost PPP Gross Cost Project Fare & Commercial Revenue Expenses Fare & Commercial Revenue Project Expenses Government Share Revenue/ profit Private Sector Government Remuneration Private Sector 42

43 The Act on Private Participation in State Undertakings Act B.E (1992) (has been repealed) Private Investments in State Undertakings Act B.E 2556 (2013)

44 MRT Assessment Standardization (by ADB)

45 Estimation of Value for Money, VFM VFM analysis : to determine investment option when account is taken of all risks and uncertainty, result in the Lowest Cost to government whereas Private Sector gets appropriate return over the concession period VFM 1 2 Best estimate Optimism bias Investment risk (M&E) O&M risk 1 2 Senario Best estimate Optimism bias Revenue risk Best estimate of project cost and passenger demand as estimated in current study Potential for project cost to be higher and passenger demand to be lower than the Best estimate

46 Allowances for Optimism Bias (% difference from the Best Estimate) Assumtion : ROE for Private 12.5% (Gross Cost) 13.5% (Net Cost) 12.75% (Modified Gross Cost) Government Procurement Concessionaire Procurement Nt Net Cost Gross Cost Mdifid Modified Nt Net Cost Gross Cost Mdifid Modified concession concession Gross Cost concession concession concession Gross Cost concession Cost Capital Cost - M&E 45% 45% 45% 15% 15% 15% O&M Cost 20% 10% 10% 20% 10% 10% Passenger Operating Y1-50% -55% -50% -50% -55% -50% Operating Y3 & after -30% -33% -30% -30% -33% -30% 46

47 Thank you

48 29 Feb months