Outlook of Electric Vehicles and Smart Grid Professor C.C. Chan, FIEEE, FIET, FHKIE

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1 Outlook of Electric Vehicles and Smart Grid Professor C.C. Chan, FIEEE, FIET, FHKIE Academician, Chinese Academy of Engineering Fellow, Royal Academy of Engineering, U.K., President, World Electric Vehicles Association President, Electric Vehicle Association of Asia Pacific Honorary Professor, University of Hong Kong KEYNOTE SPEECH VPPC 2010, Lille, France September 1, 2010

2 Content Global Sustainable Development Technical & Commercial Roadmaps of Electric Vehicles Smart Grid & Electric Vehicles

3 2003: Artic ice free by : Artic ice free by 2013?

4 Problems from Automobiles Worldwide Industry and Technology Developments in the 20 th Century <Automobile Related Issues Stress on Oil Reserve Sharp Increase on Fossil Fuel Consumption Increase on CO2 emission (Global Warming) -Population Growth -Vehicle Population Growth Air Pollution (Nitrogen oxides, Particulates, Ozone) Increase on Traffic Accidents

5 Automobile Revolution in New Century Energy: Efficient, Alternative Fuels. Environment: Minimal Emissions. Safety and Intelligent. Powertrain: Electrification and hybridization Alternative Fuels Control: New Control Theory and Algorithm, Computerization and Digitalization Future Vehicle: 4 wheels +computer

6 Fuel-and Powertrain Strategy

7 Success of EV/PHEV - Goodness Factor : Good Products; Good Infrastructure; Good Business Model. Infrastructure Products EV Market Success Business models

8 Good Products: High Reasonable Cost I: Integration of Automotive Technology and Electrical Technology A: Alliance among Auto Makers and Key Component Suppliers Powertrain Technology I+A Chasis & Body Technology Energy Storage Technology

9 Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Powertrain Integration

10 Good Infrastructure: Efficient & Convenience Parking Durations 14 hrs per day 2 hrs per day 7 hrs per day Charging Points 1 charging point per vehicle < 0.5 charging point per vehicle 1 charging point per vehicle Power & Charing time Requirements Low power and normal charging (e.g. 3kW, 10 hrs) High power and quick charging (e.g. 22 kw, 2 hrs) Low power and normal charging (e.g. 3kW, 7 hrs)

11 Swapping, Intelligent Charging, and Energy Storage Charging

12 Comparison of Gas Station & Storage Quick Charging

13 Innovative Business Model

14 Innovative Business Model EV Industry is Disruptive Industry Card Payment Sell EV Without Battery Intelligent Management Lease Battery Swapping & Charging

15 Unit Shipments Thousands By 2020, EVs would be about 7-12% of total volumes, China may reach 15-20% 2,400 2,000 Global Electric Vehicle Market (Sales): Scenario Analysis, ,600 1,200 Optimistic Scenario F&S Scenario Conservative Sceanrio Scenario's (% of total car sales) Optimistic Scenario 5,103 17,475 2,266,450 12% F&S Scenario 5,103 8,911 1,226,607 7% Conservative Scenario 5,103 7, ,953 4%

16 Sophisticated consumers High precision manufacture Specialist technology High cost base Two routes to millions of EVs? 100,000 s of EVs 100 s of EVs 100 million e-bikes Today Collaborations? millions of EVs 2020? millions of EVs New consumers Access to materials Low cost technology Low 16cost manufacture China, India? millions of e-4 wheelers

17 Electric Vehicle Roadmap s of EVs 100,000+ vehicle fleets 1 st models 2 nd Gen EVs available Real electric innovation Public familiarity and acceptance: Formula 3??? 10 15% new vehicle sale Mass market EV Early adopters Government procurement Clean Cities Maintain current momentum Fleet experience reliability driver response Infrastructure std n Cost reduction Acceleration of consumer interest and uptake Real electric innovation Current industry Recession, EU and US regulations focus Phase 1 Current CO 2, energy security government focus Phase 2

18 g CO 2 /km Worldwide comparison of well to wheel CO 2 emissions per km driven with a BEV (15 kwh or 25 kwh/100 km) and ICE Page 18 / Patrick Oliva g CO 2 /kwh

19 Core Technology: Energy Storage & Propulsion 多能源控制器 蓄电装置 储氢装置 燃料电池堆 电动机

20 Technology Roadmap

21 Duty Cycle Application of Electric Vehicles Heavy Load FCV Stop-and-go E-REV Drive Cycle Continuous BEV Light Load City Intra-Urban Highway-Cycle Highway BEV Battery Electric Vehicles E-REV Range Extender & Hybrid Electric Vehicles FCV Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles

22 Hybrid Engineering Philosophy: 1+1>2 Hybrid Mule = Horse (Mother) + Moke (Father) Mule is the hybrid of horse and moke, mule takes the best DNA of horse and moke, hence more powerful and endurance. HEV should have added value gained from the integration of engine propulsion and motor propulsion, fully sizes the intelligent electrical, electronic and control technologies

23 FUEL ECONOMY Functionality/ Hybridization and Fuel Efficiency Potential/ ICE Power Plug-in Smart Starter Electric Power Start-Stop Mild Hybrid Full Hybrid Plug-in Hybrid Plug-in Range Extender EV/ Electric Vehicle/ Engine startstop at idle Engine off on deceleration Mild regenerative braking Electric power assist Full regenerative braking Engine cycle optimization Electric launch Limited pure electric drive Engine downsize Plug-in rechargeable More electric drive during chargedepletion Reduced refueling Full-function electric drive Initial pure electric range Significantly reduced refueling Plug-in recharge only 100% pure electric range/100% No refueling +2-4% % % Cars % Trucks +100% in charge depletion/100% same as full hybrid afterward Electricity only in EV range/ 在 EV same as full hybrid afterward Electricity only

24 Hybrid Vehicle Architecture

25 VSI1 EM1 R Trans. R C Ring gear R 2 BAT Fuel ICE C T R T C Carrier R 1 VSI2 EM2 S mechanical link electrical link S T S Sun gear R 3 Fig. 1; Series-parallel hybrid Vehicle using a planetary gear unit Fig. 1a; Planetary gear unit VSI1 EM1 Trans. VSI1 EM1 BAT Fuel ICE BAT Fuel ICE Trans. VSI2 EM2 VSI2 EM2 Fig. 2; Series hybrid Vehicle Fig. 3; Parallel hybrid Vehicle VSI1 EM1 VSI1 EM1 Trans. BAT Fuel ICE Trans. BAT Fuel ICE VSI2 EM2 VSI2 EM2 Fig. 4; ICE Vehicle Fig. 5; Battery powered Electric Vehicle

26 Motor Technology : Two Types of Configurations

27 Motor : PM Motor or Induction Motor

28 Straight Type and V-Type IPM Rotor

29 Efficiency Counters 2010 Prius motor efficiency contour 2000 Prius motor efficiency contour

30 Temperature Monitoring, Cooling, Fault Tolerance

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35 EVT Electric Variable Transmission

36 Specific Power (W/kg) Energy Sources Comparison Ultracapacitor Short-Period Energy Source Flywheel Long Period Energy Source Gasoline + ICE Electrochemical Batteries Rechargeable Non- Rechargeable Fuel Cell Specific Energy (Wh/kg)

37 Cycle Life > 2000 Cost < RMB 3000 (USD 375)/kWh Reliability: Volume of million vehicles Mileage of km

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39 Comparison of Various Batteries

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43 Yintong Energy s Batteries Circular hollow battery Square hollow battery Plum-shaped hollow battery Cellular hollow battery Cascaded battery Rectangular cascaded battery

44 Cell Manufacturing 单体电池的制造工艺

45 Lithium-ion Battery

46 Battery Management System Architecture 电池包管理系统

47 US DOE Program 美国能源部研发项目 Vehicle and Systems Simulation and Testing LEE SLEZAK Complements hardware R&D activities through vehicle simulation and testing Hybrid and Electric Systems DAVID HOWELL Transportation DAVID HOWELL 68.3% Energy Storage R&D Battery technology R&D for hybrid-electric and plug-in hybrid-electric vehicles Advanced Power Electronics and Electric Motors R&D SUSAN ROGERS & STEVEN BOYD R&D for electric and electronic devices needed for drivetrain electrification

48 Battery R&D Program Activities 美国能源部电池研发项目 The Energy Storage effort is engage in a wide rage of topics, forum fundamental materials work through battery development and testing Advanced Materials Research High Energy & High Power Cell R&D Full System Development and Testing Commercialization High energy cathodes Alloy, Lithium anodes High voltage electrolytes Lithium air couples High rate electrodes High energy couples Fabrication of high E cells Ultracapacitor carbons Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV) systems 10 and 40 mile Plug-in HEV systems Advanced lead acid Ultracapacitors 48

49 BEV & HEV Production 日本混合动力产业化 Accumulated Number BEV (Global) Prius Exceed BEV 1.3 million

50 Japan EV Roadmap distance Traveling on a full charge Battery Battery capacity (vs.current (vscurrent level) level) 1 time 1.5 times 3 times Battery cost cost 1 time 1/2 1/7 1/10 1/40 distance on a full charge 130 km km Electric vehicle vehicles (EV) (EV) Improvement of battery performance Improvement - of battery performance 77 times 200 km km km 500 km Plugin - hybrid in hybrid vehicle (PHEV) vehicles (PHEV) Development of post Li ion batteries -Development of post -Li ion batteries - of Li ion battery performance Improvement of Li ion battery performance From HEV to PHEV and EV Leap in cruising in driving distance distance Drastic cost cost reduction reduction 50

51 Japan Recent EV Development imievs from Mitsubishi that will be made available in Network of EV charging stations. Launch a competitive tende to select an EV infrastructure service provider.

52 日本的经验 : Japan Experience: Alliance between OEM & Battery Manufacturer Toyota Panasonic Nissan Mitsubishi

53 Promotion of EV/HEV in 20 Cities Subsidize Private Buyers in 5 Cities Presently Over 8000 EVs/HEVs Each city over 1000 vehicles within 3 years Beijing Changchun Priority in public transportation Dalian Jinan Incentives from central and local governments Kunming Chongqing Wuhan Changzhu Tan Hefei Nanchang Shanghai Hangzhou Incubation of demand and market Shenzheng

54 Shanghai World Expo Demonstration: Over 1000 BEV/HEV/FCV Buses 2 VIP Vehicles 1 Tourist EV 4 3 Mini EV 54

55 Made in China: Low-speed EVs in China The Future of EVs? 55 55

56 Chinese Transportation Structure Structure of Points-lines-Areas Points larger city Public transportation Private car Areas town Public transportation Personal car and E-bike Lines city-city Railway Airline Commercial vehicle

57 What it is Smart Grid? It is intelligent It allows two-way communication It allows real-time monitoring & control 57

58 Source: Altalink, Alberta, Canada Smart Grid

59 Electric Power & Communication Infrastructures 1.Power Infrastructure Data network Users Central Generating Station Step-Up Transformer 2. Information Infrastructure Control Center Distribution Substation Gas Turbine Receiving Station Distribution Substation Recip Engine Microturbine Distribution Substation Photo voltaics Residential Data Concentrator Recip Engine Cogeneration Fuel cell Commercial Batteries Flywheel Residential Industrial Commercial Source: EPRI 59

60 Stability use for renewable energy by electric vehicle The renewable energy of sunlight, wind, etc. into which the amount of power generation greatly changes depending on the weather and time is saved in storage battery (LiB) with high efficiency. Solar power Wind power Uncontrollable electric power Renewable Energy [kw] Battery (LiB) Charging / Discharging Example: Equipment of one house (southeast2.6kw+southwest1.4kw) Fine Cloudy Rain Source data:the Research Center for Photovoltaics, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST) HP

61 Charge Smart House Increasing low carbon electricity and reduce peak electricity consumed Management of electricity storage by EV and/or Lithium ion battery Converter Solar Cell Sell DC AC Mid-night electricity Back up Charge Buy Smart Meter AC DC Distribute Appliances Grid EV Battery(LiB)

62 Scenario for introducing Smart Grid Evolution from Smart House to Smart Community, Smart Grid Smart House Smart Community Smart Grid Self-sufficiency of energy supply Micro-grid Network Connection to Grid Fossil fuel Renewable energy

63 EVs would be plugged into home outlet for hours. High-speed response with synchronization could be realized by using self-terminal frequency measurement. Maintaining battery condition and charging request by itself Autonomous Distributed V2G...Centralized control scheme dispatching LFC signals to storage devices Ubiquitous Power Grid Pump Storage Thermal Hydro Nuclear Battery Wind Power Grid Tie-line Power Grid Load Dispatching Center Battery ECU / BMU DC-DC Converter Motor Inverter Smart Charging Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) Distributed Grid Regional Load Dispaching Center Wind Photovoltaic Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle Electric Vehicle Battery Microgrid Heat Storage Heat Pump Water Heater Load Distributed Generator

64 Power [MW] Power [MW] Power [MW] Power [MW] Frequency deviation[hz] Frequency deviation[hz] Δf a LFC without V2G Δf b Thermal ΔP 100 t 0 Load -100 Load Disturbance Thermal 50 0 Load ΔP t (a) Frequency deviations (b) Power of system a (c) Power of system b LFC with V2G (200[MW]=5[kW]*4e4) V2G Thermal 100 ΔP t Load Disturbance V2G Thermal ΔP t V2G works as a spinning reserve faster than thermal power governor. Quality of frequency is improved, and oscillation is also damped. Response of thermal power generator become to be dominated by FFC-TBC, and it is said V2G don t disturb power grid LFC. Δf a Δf b Time [s] Time [s] Time [s]

65 V2G power [kw] Battery SOC [%] Frequency deviation [Hz] (a) Frequency deviation +3σ Moving average (b) V2G power output and battery SOC Charge Plug-out : 90[%] -3 Discharge -4-5 Plug-in : 20[%] pm Time [hour] Maintaining battery condition and replying charging request OK -3σ am Charge energy from 20 to 90[%] Additional cycles for grid 11.59[kWh] (0.97[kW]) V2G+ : 19.63[kWh] (1.64[kW]), V2G- : 7.78[kWh] (0.65[kW])

66 Energy (MWhrs) Power (MW) (0/0) (0/0) (1.5/3) (1.5/3) (b-1) Lost energy of RES in case BESS (3/6) (3/6) (6/12) (6/12) (9/18) (9/18) Energy (MWhrs) Power (MW) 500(1/1.6) 500(1/1.6) 1000(2/3.2) 1000(2/3.2) 1500(3/4.8) 1500(3/4.8) (b-2) Lost energy of RES in case V2G 2000(4/6.4) 2000(4/6.4) 2500(5/8) 2500(5/8) 3000(6/9.6) 3000(6/9.6) Simulation results Power fluctuation and lost energy MAXIMUM RUNNING AVERAGE MAXIMUM RUNNING AVERAGE Wind Pattern 1 Wind Pattern 2 Wind Pattern 1 Wind Pattern INSTNATANEOUS MAXIMUM INSTNATANEOUS MAXIMUM Wind Pattern 1 Wind Pattern Wind Pattern 1 Wind Pattern With no control maximum running average is MW and instantaneous maximum is MW BESS Capacity (MW/MWhr) With no control maximum running average is MW and instantaneous maximum is MW No of vehicles (MW/MWhr) (a-1) Power fluctuations in case BESS Wind Pattern 1 Wind Pattern 2 BESS Capacity (MW/MWhr) (a-2) Power fluctuations in case V2G Wind Pattern 1 Wind Pattern 2 No of vehicles (MW/MWhr)

67 ADAPTING: THE NEW ENERGY PARADIGM

68 World Electric Vehicle Association President: Prof. C.C. Chan Electric Vehicle Association of Asia Pacific (EVAAP) Speaker: Professor C.C.Chan Electric Drive Transportation Association, USA (EDTA) Date: January 2010 European Electric Road Vehicle Association Chinese Electrotechnical Society (CES) Society of Automotive Engineering (SAE- China)

69 SUCCESS SUCCESS

70 Inspiration Imagination Innovation Integration Implementation Investment

71 Thank you!