Global Automobile Demand

Transcription

1 Global Automobile Demand

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3 Global Automobile Demand Major Trends in Mature Economies; Volume 1 Edited by Bruno Jetin Université Sorbonne Paris Cité, France

4 Selection, introduction and editorial matter Bruno Jetin 2015 Individual chapters Contributors 2015 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No portion of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, Saffron House, 6 10 Kirby Street, London EC1N 8TS. Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The authors have asserted their rights to be identified as the authors of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act First published 2015 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN Palgrave Macmillan in the UK is an imprint of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number , of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan in the US is a division of St Martin s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave and Macmillan are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries. ISBN ISBN (ebook) DOI / This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. Logging, pulping and manufacturing processes are expected to conform to the environmental regulations of the country of origin. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Global automobile demand : major trends in mature economies / [edited by] Bruno Jetin. volumes cm Includes bibliographical references. 1. Automobile industry and trade. 2. Automobile ownership. I. Jetin, Bruno. HD9710.A2G dc

5 To Michel Freyssenet, one of the founders of GERPISA, and always a source of intellectual stimulation

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7 Contents List of Figures List of Tables Notes on Contributors viii xi xiii Introduction 1 Bruno Jetin 1 The US Automobile Market after the Great Recession : Back to Business as Usual or Birth of a New Industry? 10 Bruno Jetin 2 A Model to Follow? The Impact of Neoliberal Policies on the British Automobile Market and Industry 37 Tommaso Pardi 3 Excess Capacity Viewed as Excess Quality The Case of French Car Manufacturing 72 Bernard Jullien 4 Income Polarisation, Rising Mobility Costs and Green Transport: Contradictory Developments in Germany s Automotive Market 105 Antje Blöcker and Julia Hildermeier 5 The Automobile Demand in Spain 127 Holm-Detlev Köhler and José Pablo Calleja Jiménez 6 Japan s Automobile Market in Troubled Times 151 Holger Bungsche 7 From Expansion to Mature: Turning Point of the Korean Automotive Market 179 Myeong-kee Chung Conclusion 202 Index 205 vii

8 List of Figures 1.1 New cars and light-trucks sales in the United States ( ) Labour productivity and real compensation gap in the US ( ) US households debt as share of disposable income ( ) Delinquency rates on auto loans (2006 Q Q4) New car purchase financing terms of auto finance companies ( ) Real household mean and median income in the United States ( ) The new car, still a mass consumption good? ( ) Purchase of new cars and trucks of lowest and highest quintiles ( ) Breakdown of new light vehicles unit sales by size in the United States ( ) Share of selected expenditures of US households in total expenditures ( ) Share of motor vehicles outlays in total personal consumption ( ) Towards a saturation of the automobile market? ( ) Distribution of all open automotive loans by risk tier (new & used vehicles) ( ) Delinquency and new auto loan origination ( ), Q UK car production by group and brands ( ) Cars production and sales in the UK ( ) UK car production and the evolution of the /DM exchange rate ( ) UK balance of trade for new cars and car parts ( ) UK sales of new cars by groups ( ) UK labour share ( ) and Gini coefficient ( ) /50 and 90/10 households incomes ratios ( ) 49 viii

9 List of Figures ix 2.8 Fractions of individuals whose after-housing costs incomes are at 60% and 40% of the after-housing costs median incomes Cars sales by type ( ) Households access to car or van ( ) Access to one, two, three or more cars by households deciles based on gross incomes (2001) Average transaction price of secondhand cars by type of sale, and of new cars sold by dealers ( ) Net national income per head during three recessions (top) and net real household actual income during two recessions (bottom) UK total domestic expenditure and total purchase of motorcars ( ) Household and fleet sales Market share by product range ( ) New car purchases as a share of total household spending Household income/corporate profits as a share of total value added Inequality indicator D9/D1 ( ) Relationship between the growth in four spending categories and the growth in overall household spending between 1985 and Changes in French household spending ( ) Amounts (in current Euros) and composition of annual automotive spending of least and most affluent households in Average unit value, in months of average wage Shifting ratio of European sales by German brands/french brands Increasing profit share of GDP ( ) in the 2000s Growth of wages (nominal and real) and productivity in Germany Development of disposable incomes ( ) per income decile Growing income gap between the poor and the rich Change in incomes ( ) Rise of low-wage employment ( ) Passenger car production and exports The impact of the crisis on registrations in Spain New vehicle registrations in Spain by type of fuel 134

10 x List of Figures 5.4 Passenger cars per 1,000 habitants New passenger car registrations ( ) GDP growth rates differential Spain/EU-15 ( ) Real household debt as a percentage of disposable income ( ) Housing cost overburden rate by income quintile (2012) Income quintile share ratio in selected countries Production and sales of vehicles in Spain ( ) Production and sales of vehicles in Spain, II ( ) Vehicles total expenditure ( ) Expenditure shares on new cars ( ) Share of 4 4 wheel drive models Average power Japan s changing demography Sales of passenger cars between 1966 and Sales of recreational vehicles after Development of the Japanese new car and used car market after Development of the used car market for Japanese brands after Development of household liabilities The Japanese car market after implementation of the eco-car tax regulations Growth rate of GDP, household income and expenditure Aged support ratio Growth rate of GDP, GNI and household debt Growing income inequality has squeezed the middle class Production and sales of Korean automakers Number of sales and car loans Vehicles registered by vehicle type 194

11 List of Tables I.1 Passenger cars ownership on household consumption per capita, Gini coefficient, population density and degree of urbanisation Turnover, gross value added, employment and employment cost of British-based carmakers and component makers ( ) Evolution of the distribution of disposable incomes by decile rate ( ) UK licenced cars, used cars sales and new cars sales ( ) Average British household motoring expenses ( ) Detailed average households motoring expenditure in 2007, 2009 and Distribution of new car spending between gross income deciles ( ) Evolution of UK fleet, business, private and total car sales (volume) since 2007 ( ) Main features of the average car sold in the UK market ( ) Light-vehicle registrations by sales channel Passenger vehicles sold to households vs. companies and administrations and long-term rental companies for 6 brands and 4 segments (2012) Disposable income and pre-engaged expenditure Age of new and used car buyers in France and EU Transport spending as share of total household expenditures Changes in French households driving expenditures Vehicles in use (owned, leased or loaned) by households Household purchases of new and used cars findings from 6 HBSs Changes in French household automotive spending Breakdown of consumer spending by main categories, in percentage of total consumer spending Mobility cost split (spending per household and year) Car stock, new and used car registrations in Germany 114 xi

12 xii List of Tables 4.4 Share of car segments of the German car market ( ) Share of private and commercial passenger car buyers Private car registration per age group Registered alternative drive cars Automotive OEMs in Spain The impact of the crisis on Spain s passenger car exports Characteristics of PIVE and PIVE2 programs Vehicles in use Average real wage per occupation ( ) New car registrations by market segment Development of number of passenger cars per 100 households Percentage of ownership of one or more cars per household Car prices of selected models and prices for 1 litre of gasoline Car prices in Japan for domestically produced cars according to car type Running cost for a mini car and a compact car in comparison Monthly minimum living expenses and living expenses necessary for leading a decent life Household expenditures per month Household expenditures and car ownership by young people Trends in alternative-energy vehicles in use in Japan Monthly household income, expenditure, expenditure on car purchases and domestic car sales Domestic auto sales by segment Imported car sales Domestic sales by local automaker Configuration of exports 198

13 Notes on Contributors Antje Blöcker holds a PhD in Political Science and Economics on innovation systems of BMW, Daimler Benz and Volkswagen and has worked as a researcher and lecturer at University of Brunswick (Technische Universität Braunschweig) and the Social Science Center of Berlin (WZB), Germany. Since 2013, she has been a research fellow at the Institute for Work and Technology (IAT), Gelsenkirchen. Her research interests include structural changes in the global automotive industry, employment relationships and production systems. Her current projects are employment and competence security in the automotive industry of Eastern Germany and the future of manufacturing work and employment implications of digitalisation. Holger Bungsche studied Asian studies, modern history, sociology and business administration at Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen- Nuremberg, Germany, Furen University Taipeh, Taiwan, and Kobe University, Japan. After receiving his MA and PhD, he started his professional career in 2001 at the Social Science Research Center of Friedrich- Alexander University, Erlangen-Nuremberg. In 2006, he worked as an associate professor at the Industrial Research Institute went on in 2010 to become a professor at the School of International Studies of Kwansei Gakuin University, Nishinomiya Japan, where he serves as the vice president of the EU Institute in Kansai, Japan. Myeong-kee Chung holds a PhD from Marburg University in Germany and is Professor of Economics in the Department of Chinese Studies & Economics at Hannam University, Korea. He is the principal author of The Second Automobile Revolution Trajectories of the World Carmakers in the 21st Century (2009) and Handbook of East Asian Entrepreneurship (2015). He is currently involved in research on industrial relations and the globalisation of the Korean automobile industry. Julia Hildermeier is completing a PhD in Sociology on the development of institutional trajectories of environmental politics in the car industry at Humboldt-Universität Berlin, Germany and École Normale Supérieure Cachan, France. She has been a coordinating member of the international network of the automobile industry, GERPISA, and is involved in several European research and policy consultancy projects xiii

14 xiv Notes on Contributors in her main field of interest, sustainable electric mobility. In 2015, Julia joined the Brussels-based European Federation for Transport and Environment as policy officer for low carbon vehicles. Bruno Jetin holds a PhD in Economics from the University of Paris Nord, France. He has been an associate professor at the University of Rouen and Sorbonne Paris Cité and a senior researcher at the Institute for Research on Contemporary Southeast Asia (CNRS), Bangkok. He is an associate professor at the University of Brunei Darussalam. He is a member of the GERPISA steering committee. He has researched and published many articles on the automobile industry, in particular, the flexibility of the productive process, the variety of supply, the internationalisation of carmakers and automobile demand. His other research interests include Asian studies, poverty, inequality and well-being. José Pablo Calleja Jiménez is Senior Lecturer of Sociology and Social Work at the University of Oviedo and at the National University of Distance Education, Spain. He is completing his PhD on trade union revitalisation strategies at the University of Valencia. His research interests include comparative trade union studies, social work and intervention. He is the co-author of Trade Unions in Spain: Organisation, Environment, Challenges (with H.-D. Köhler; 2013). Bernard Jullien is the Co-Director of GERPISA (Groupe d Etude et de Recherche Permanent sur l Industrie et les Salariés de l Automobile) at the École Normale Supérieure (ENS) of Cachan, France. He has extensive experience researching and publishing on the automobile industry. He is a co-author of The Logan Saga: New Trajectories for Innovation. He manages the GERPISA project research on Structuring emerging automobile industries and restructuring old ones ( ). Holm-Detlev Köhler is Professor of Sociology at the University of Oviedo, Spain. His main research topics include comparative industrial relations, management and innovation in transnational corporations, local and regional development. He is the co-author of Manual de la Sociología del Trabajo y de las Relaciones Laborales, Delta (3rd edition; 2010). His recent publications in English are Transformations in Spanish trade union membership (with J. P. Calleja Jiménez), Industrial Relations Journal, 43(3) (2012); Profit and innovation strategies in low-tech firms, Estudios de EconomíaAplicada, 26(3) (2008); The DaimlerChrysler Trajectory since the merger in M. Freyssenet et al., Automobile Firms Trajectories. Lessons since Mid- 90s (2009).

15 Notes on Contributors xv Tommaso Pardi is a sociologist, senior researcher at the CNRS (IDHES UMR 8533), and the co-director of both the GIS GERPISA at the ENS of Cachan, and its current international programme, Structuring new automobile industries and restructuring old ones. His research spans the areas of sociology of work, economic sociology and sociology of organisation and focuses in particular on the automotive sector.