Transformation and Choice of European Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis

Transcription

1 KAABA Symposium The Transformation and Choice of Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis Seoul, June 23, 2010 Transformation and Choice of European Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis Michel FREYSSENET CNRS Paris GERPISA

2 CONTENT European auto industry, the year before the crisis The actions of the carmakers and of the States and their effects on the automobile crisis Opportunities and new orientations to prepare the future Freyssenet M., Slides presentation. Transformation and Choices of European Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis[/url], KAABA Symposium "The Transformation and Choice of Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis". Seoul, June 23, Digital publication, freyssenet.com, 2010, 1,9 Mo, ISSN

3 The year before Europe: one third of the world automobile market and of the worldwide production A slight tendantial bipolarization of the automobile demand structure Trajectories divergence of Western Europa and of Central Europa Vehicle type preferences of South Europa and of North Europa Different profit strategies of carmakers Freyssenet M., Slides presentation. Transformation and Choices of European Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis[/url], KAABA Symposium "The Transformation and Choice of Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis". Seoul, June 23, Digital publication, freyssenet.com, 2010, 1,9 Mo, ISSN

4 Freyssenet M., Slides presentation. Transformation and Choices of European Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis[/url], KAABA Symposium "The Transformation and Choice of Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis". Seoul, June 23, Digital publication, freyssenet.com, 2010, 1,9 Mo, ISSN

5 Market share Diesel 4x4 Average cubic capacity Average power Freyssenet M., Slides presentation. Transformation and Choices of European Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis[/url], KAABA Symposium "The Transformation and Choice of Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis". Seoul, June 23, Digital publication, freyssenet.com, 2010, 1,9 Mo, ISSN

6 Freyssenet M., Slides presentation. Transformation and Choices of European Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis[/url], KAABA Symposium "The Transformation and Choice of Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis". Seoul, June 23, Digital publication, freyssenet.com, 2010, 1,9 Mo, ISSN

7 Freyssenet M., Slides presentation. Transformation and Choices of European Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis[/url], KAABA Symposium "The Transformation and Choice of Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis". Seoul, June 23, Digital publication, freyssenet.com, 2010, 1,9 Mo, ISSN

8 Germany United Kingdom France Italy Freyssenet M., Slides presentation. Transformation and Choices of European Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis[/url], KAABA Symposium "The Transformation and Choice of Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis". Seoul, June 23, Digital publication, freyssenet.com, 2010, 1,9 Mo, ISSN

9 The actions of the carmakers and of the States and their effects on the auto crisis (1) The common reactions of carmakers - free cash plans - axing of temporary jobs, work time reduction, hiring stop - modifications of the products plans The differentiated reactions of carmakers - transfer of subsidiaries and plant closures by GM and Ford - at the contrary of the others Freyssenet M., Slides presentation. Transformation and Choices of European Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis[/url], KAABA Symposium "The Transformation and Choice of Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis". Seoul, June 23, Digital publication, freyssenet.com, 2010, 1,9 Mo, ISSN

10 The actions of the carmakers and of the States and their effects on the auto crisis (2) Support plans to the banks of carmakers to be able to finance the automobile credit Support plans to car demand : «scrappage premiums» and «CO2 reduction premiums» A moderate fall of demand A boom of small and less carbon cars After the premiums? Freyssenet M., Slides presentation. Transformation and Choices of European Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis[/url], KAABA Symposium "The Transformation and Choice of Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis". Seoul, June 23, Digital publication, freyssenet.com, 2010, 1,9 Mo, ISSN

11 Source: ACEA

12 Source: ACEA Freyssenet M., Slides presentation. Transformation and Choices of European Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis[/url], KAABA Symposium "The Transformation and Choice of Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis". Seoul, June 23, Digital publication, freyssenet.com, 2010, 1,9 Mo, ISSN

13 Freyssenet M., Slides presentation. Transformation and Choices of European Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis[/url], KAABA Symposium "The Transformation and Choice of Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis". Seoul, June 23, Digital publication, freyssenet.com, 2010, 1,9 Mo, ISSN

14 Opportunities and new orientations (1) Unusual race to increase the national competitivity, bteween France and Germany The battle for Opel: Fiat, Magna, GM. Why didn t PSA, VW or others buy Opel? European specialist carmakers on sale: Saab and Volvo. Only Chinese and sport carmakers were interessed.why? European carmakers prefered new alliances and joint ventures: VW-Porsche-SuzukiMaruti may be Proton PSA, Mitsubishi may be Changan Renault/Nissan-Daimler may be SsangYong Fiat-Chrysler and Sollers Freyssenet M., Slides presentation. Transformation and Choices of European Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis[/url], KAABA Symposium "The Transformation and Choice of Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis". Seoul, June 23, Digital publication, freyssenet.com, 2010, 1,9 Mo, ISSN

15 Opportunities and new orientations (2) The clean(er) automobile perspective: evolution or revolution? The contrasted and changing positions of the carmakers The different preferences and policies of the States What are their real strategies? The newcomers and their chances Freyssenet M., Slides presentation. Transformation and Choices of European Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis[/url], KAABA Symposium "The Transformation and Choice of Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis". Seoul, June 23, Digital publication, freyssenet.com, 2010, 1,9 Mo, ISSN

16 (changing!) clean(er) automobile strategies: priority to less carbon fuels: gaz, agrofuel Hybrid versus all types plug-in hybrid full electric Fiat Volvo PSA Volkswagen Daimler BMW Renault- Nissan and newcomers (Bolloré, Heuliez, Micro Vett, Lightning ) Freyssenet M., Slides presentation. Transformation and Choices of European Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis[/url], KAABA Symposium "The Transformation and Choice of Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis". Seoul, June 23, Digital publication, freyssenet.com, 2010, 1,9 Mo, ISSN

17 alternative energies national preference for clean(er) cars until now Agro-fuel Natural gas Plug-in hybrid, full electric Objectives of reduction, only Sweden Russia France Germany Italy Great Britain European Union Portugal Spain Irland Danemark Switzerland Freyssenet M., Slides presentation. Transformation and Choices of European Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis[/url], KAABA Symposium "The Transformation and Choice of Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis". Seoul, June 23, Digital publication, freyssenet.com, 2010, 1,9 Mo, ISSN

18 Freyssenet M., Slides presentation. Transformation and Choices of European Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis[/url], KAABA Symposium "The Transformation and Choice of Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis". Seoul, June 23, Digital publication, freyssenet.com, 2010, 1,9 Mo, ISSN

19 Conclusion From 2008 crisis to a Second Automobile Revolution A new architecture automobile? A complete change of the geography, the economy and the sociology of the world automobile industry? A hard battle is starting Freyssenet M., Slides presentation. Transformation and Choices of European Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis[/url], KAABA Symposium "The Transformation and Choice of Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis". Seoul, June 23, Digital publication, freyssenet.com, 2010, 1,9 Mo, ISSN

20 For more informations and analysis Freyssenet M., Slides presentation. Transformation and Choices of European Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis[/url], KAABA Symposium "The Transformation and Choice of Automobile Industry Post-Global Financial Crisis". Seoul, June 23, Digital publication, freyssenet.com, 2010, 1,9 Mo, ISSN