Automotive industry: The world is growing in line with its main markets, China and the United States, while Europe continues its decline in 2013

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1 Automotive industry: The world is growing in line with its main markets, China and the United States, while Europe continues its decline in 2013 Yann Lacroix Sector Research

2 Contents 1 The worldwide market is growing 2 Cracks appearing in the Eldorado of emerging countries 3 The American automotive market is reviving 4 Japan: a monetary policy to boost production and profit 5 Part of the European market is collapsing 6 Conclusion 2

3 1 1 The worldwide market is growing 2 Cracks appearing in the Eldorado of emerging countries 3 The American automotive market is reviving 4 Japan: a monetary policy to boost production and profit 5 Part of the European market is collapsing 6 Conclusion 3

4 Worldwide vehicle production growth is back on track Worldwide vehicle production (PCs and CVs)*, in millions of units 95,0 Year Production (million) Change (y/y) 90, ,1 5.5% 85, ,5-3.5% 80, % 75,0 70,0 65,0 60,0 55, e 2014 p *PCs: passenger cars CVs: commercial vehicles ,9 26% % ,1 5% 2013 (f) 86 2% 2014 (f) 89 4% Sources: OICA, Euler Hermes forecasts 4

5 but the balance has shifted and production has moved to new economies Vehicle production (PCs and CVs) by country in 2007 and 2012 China 117% India 84% Mexico 43% Brazil 12% South Korea 12% US -4% Germany -9% UK -10% Japan -14% Spain -32% France -35% Italy -48% -70% -50% -30% -10% 10% 30% 50% 70% 90% 110% 130% Production PC and CV (millions) China India Mexico Brasil South Korea USA Germany United Kingdom Japan Spain France Italy Source: OICA 5

6 2 1 The worldwide market is growing 2 Cracks appearing in the Eldorado of emerging countries 3 The American automotive market is reviving 4 Japan: a monetary policy to boost production and profit 5 Part of the European market is collapsing 6 Conclusion 6

7 China: stimulus-package euphoria in has subsided and the market is growing at a healthy 8-10% pace again PC registrations (year on year, millions of units) 20,0 18,0 16,0 14,0 12,0 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 Market will grow near 10% in 2013 and 8-9% in 2014 Growth potential is still exciting (vehicle equipment rate under 5%) But the pre-owned vehicle market is appearing 2, Sources: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, Euler Hermes forecasts 7

8 India: in spite of the reduction in interest rates (which remain high) the market has dropped in , for the first time in 10 years PC registrations (year on year, millions of units) 2,2 2,0 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1,0 0,8 The market will decrease by -10% in full year 2013 The launch of new models in the second half of 2013, should reverse this trend We expect a growth of 5-6% in ,0 7,0 Interest rates 0,6 6,0 0, ,0 Sources: Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers, Euler Hermes forecasts 4,0 3,0 01/09 01/10 01/11 01/12 01/13 8

9 Brazil: revving up for a fresh boost? In 2013 the market will be flat at 2.9 million units before recovering next year PC registrations (year on year, millions of units) 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 In 2012 the market increased by 7% but only because the Government cut its tax on industrial goods (IPI) in spring 2012 to stimulate the local automotive market Without stimulus, the market will be flat in 2013 We expect a slow growth around 4-5% in , Sources: Associação Nacional dos Fabricantes de Veículos Automotores, Euler Hermes forecasts 9

10 Russia: a future market for Europe but unstable PC registrations (year on year, millions of units) 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0, Prospects in the Russian market are exciting but it s not stable Vehicle equipment rate is low (near 25%) This market grew by 11% in 2012 but will decrease by -6% to -7% in 2013 and recover a slow growth of +4% in 2014 Sources: national statistics, Euler Hermes forecasts 10

11 3 1 The worldwide market is growing 2 Cracks appearing in the Eldorado of emerging countries 3 The American automotive market is reviving 4 Japan: a monetary policy to boost production and profit 5 Part of the European market is collapsing 6 Conclusion 11

12 US: the US market continues to grow, after the loss of more than 20 million units sales since 2008 PC registrations (year on year, millions of units) 18,0 17,0 16,0 15,0 14,0 13,0 12,0 Market grew by 12% in 2012 and will increase by 8% in 2013 For 2014 we expect a slow increase around 4%, near it s pre-crisis level 11,0 10, Sources: Auto Alliance, Euler Hermes forecasts 12

13 The fierce reshuffle is over and the sector is creating jobs again (more than 150,000 over the past three years) Headcounts plummeted by more than 50% between 2000 and US carmaker market shares had been shrinking for a decade when the crisis dealt them a second blow. GM and Ford had already lost over $60bn in 2006 and They closed 18 plants Sources: national statistics, number of jobs carmakers and suppliers (in thousand) 13

14 American groups are growing profitably again In 2011, US carmakers benefitted from the difficulties encountered by Japanese manufacturers because of the earthquake and ensuing tsunami. In 2012 their losses deepened in Europe and GM passed an exceptional charge (goodwill impairment) of $27 billion (1). United States (f) 2014 (f) Revenue change 10.9% 3.3% 0% 3.7% 4.4% Operating profit rate (profit from operations over revenue) 5.6% 5.2% 1.1% (1) 4.5% 5% Sources: GM and Ford aggregates, consensus Copyright Euler Hermes

15 4 1 The worldwide market is growing 2 Cracks appearing in the Eldorado of emerging countries 3 The American automotive market is reviving 4 Japan: a monetary policy to boost production and profit 5 Part of the European market is collapsing 6 Conclusion 15

16 Japan: a monetary policy to boost production and profits Yen/Euro exchange rates ( 100 to 1) 1,2 1,1 1 0,9 0,8 0,7 0,6 Gains in competitiveness Loss of competitiveness Gains in competitiveness The yen s 40% drop against the Euro in gave Japanese manufacturers a competitive edge The yen has been back at early- 2000s levels since mid-2008, shattering the country s competitive advantage and shifting production away The depreciation of the yen (-25%) has boosted the production and the profits since the middle of ,

17 Japan: the market is weathering a fierce storm, and shrinking over the long term PC registrations (year on year, millions of units) Sources: Jama, Euler Hermes forecasts 2008 crisis disrupted the market It bounced back on the stimulus packages in It collapsed in 2011 after the earthquake and tsunami (over 1 million unsold vehicles) It bounced back 30% in 2012, but it will fall by -10% in 2013 and stabilize its level to 4.9 million units in

18 The yen s rise is hampering manufacturer profits until the middle of 2012, but the new monetary policy is going to dope the next profits Japan 3/2007 3/2010 3/2011 3/2012 3/2013 3/2014 (f) Revenue change 12.2% -11.1% 5.7% -2.6% 14.6% 14.9% Operating profit rate (profit from operations over revenue) 8.0% 2.2% 4.0% 2.9% 5.5% 6.5% Sources: accrued Toyota, Nissan, Honda, Mazda and Mitsubishi data, consensus 18

19 5 1 The worldwide market is growing 2 Cracks appearing in the Eldorado of emerging countries 3 The American automotive market is reviving 4 Japan: a monetary policy to boost production and profit 5 Part of the European market is collapsing 6 Conclusion 19

20 Europe: the market is in a long-term slump PC registrations (year on year, millions of units) 16,0 15,0 14,0 13,0 12,0 After dropping by 6% in 2012, the European market is expected to fall by -5% to -6% in 2013 The market may increase slowly in 2014 by 3% Volumes are 20% below pre-crisis levels, i.e. 3.5 million units less 11, Source: ACEA, Euler Hermes forecasts 20

21 Production in Southern Europe: the shuffle is just starting PC production (year on year, millions of units) Italy: production has halved since Fiat still has 5 plants in Italy after closing Termini (Sicily) in ,3 2,2 2,1 2,0 1,9 1,8 1,7 1,6 1, Spain: cost structures were reduced to be more competitive. The production should grow by 10% in Sources: national statistics 21

22 France: local PC manufacturers have seen production decrease by more than 50% since 2005 PC production (year on year, millions of units) 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1, After the market collapse and production relocation, French plants are making roughly 1.4 million cars After downsizing plants (cutting the number of production lines), it is time to make more drastic decisions and take a new look at fixed costs (e.g. plans to close the PSA plant in Aulnay, near Paris) Source: national statistics, French carmakers only 22

23 France: broad-based vehicle manufacturers need to juggle dwindling volume in Europe and limp international expansion French vehicle manufacturers have seen their profits crumble in 2012 and 2013, and need to embark on heavy, costly rightsizing. France (f) 2014(f) Revenue change 15.7% 7.9% -4.4% -0.5% 5.5% Operating profit rate (profit from operations over revenue) 2.6% 2.2% 0.2% 1.1% 2.2% Sources: accrued PSA and Renault data, consensus 23

24 Germany: production regained its pre-crisis level at the end of 2011, but declined in 2012 in line with the European crisis, and remains at a low level in 2013 PC production (year on year, millions of units) 6,10 5,90 5,70 5,50 5,30 5,10 4,90 4,70 4, German production was back at pre-crisis levels in But the production decreased during the full year 2012, by nearly -10%. From the beginning of 2013, the production remains at a low level, around 5.3 million units. Sources: national statistics, VDA 24

25 Germany: premium position supports profits and exports German manufacturers are offsetting the decline of European markets thanks to their international sales: robust growth in China and in the US Germany (f) 2014(f) Revenue change 21.4% 17.4% 14.7% 6.4% 5.5% Operating profit rate (profit from operations over revenue) 6.6% 8.3% 7.2% 8.2% 8.4% Sources: accrued BMW, Daimler and VW data, consensus 25

26 United Kingdom: helped by a favorable monetary parity, but lacks national carmakers PC production (year on year, millions of units) 1,7 1,6 1,5 1,4 1,3 Profit of large investments by Nissan, Honda, BMW (Mini) and JLR (Tata group) 1.60 Pound /Euro exchange rates 1, ,1 1,0 0, , Sources: SMMT, Euler Hermes 26

27 6 1 The worldwide market is growing 2 Cracks appearing in the Eldorado of emerging countries 3 The American automotive market is reviving 4 Japan: a monetary policy to boost production and profit 5 Part of the European market is collapsing 6 Conclusion 27

28 Conclusion The worldwide market is growing by 3% a year today, but production and consumption have shifted to the new economies The sharp upswing in the US automotive market has been dampened by the downturn in Europe, and Japanese manufacturers are going to benefit from the depreciation of the yen Emerging markets show very different trends: increase in China but decrease in India and Russia in 2013 In Europe, continuing soft demand and scant profitability will force broad-based vehicles manufacturers into adjusting their industrial capacity Adequate international presence is essential more than ever before to generate decent profits and to finance investments and research, as equipment manufacturers are doing 28

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