European Scrapping Programs: Good or Bad? Sascha Heiden Senior Market Analyst Automotive Analysis and Forecasting
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1 European Scrapping Programs: Good or Bad? Sascha Heiden Senior Market Analyst Automotive Analysis and Forecasting
2 The Spread of Government Car Purchase Incentive Schemes Many European Governments have embraced car scrapping incentive schemes = Incentive Scheme = Considering Scheme
3 Overview of Government Car Purchase Incentive Schemes Coverage 9 countries in West Europe 4 countries in East Europe Incentive Amount From 750 to 2,500 (with budget limitation) Timing Mostly 1 year Conditions Scrapped vehicle Purchased vehicle Car / ~ over 10 years old / 1 year ownership New Car / ~140/160g/km CO 2 Specifics Some countries include LCVs (FRA, GBR, NLD) and/or Used Cars/LCVs in their schemes (DEU, NLD)
4 European Scrapping Schemes Details Timing Incentive amount Purchased vehicle Scrapped vehicle Germany 01/09 to 2,500 New or used car (up to 12 months) / Min. Euro 4 / Private buyers only 9 years France 12/08 to 1,000 New car <161g or New LCV >10 years Italy 02/09 to 1,500 2,500 (LCV) New car <141g (131g for diesel) or LCV > 10 years and Euro 0,1 or 2 U.K. 05/09 to 03/10 ~ 2,200 New car or LCV >10 years Spain 05/09 to 05/10 2,000 (50% from OEMs) New car with purchase price up to 30,000 >10 years Portugal 12/08 to 1,250 or 1,500 New car 8 to 12 years or >12 years Netherlands 05/09 to 05/ to 1,750 New or used (<8 years) petrol car or LCV / New or used diesel car with DPF > 19 or 13 or 9 years depending on type, fuel, weight Austria 04/09 to 1,500 New car / Min. Euro 4 / Private buyers only >12 years Romania 03/09 to ~ 900 (Ron3,800) New car >10 years Limited to 60,000 units Slovakia 03/09 to 1,500 New car >10 years Czech Rep. 09/09 to 12/10 ~ 1,100 New car with purchase price up to ~ 18,800 >10 years Serbia 03/09 to 1,000 New Fiat Punto (locally built) >9 years
5 Lessons Learned From Previous Schemes An efficient measure only in the short term Allows to offset the wait and see attitude of customers in replacement / saturated markets People who can afford new cars can and do tend to delay their purchase when a crisis hits Incentives create a windfall effect: between 1994 and 1996, two plans in France immediately boosted sales with +210,000 units But net effect on sales is negligible longer term Net growth at the end of 1997 was only +13,000 units: payback effect of 197,000 units basically cancelled previous incremental sales Mostly anticipated sales but not much new car demand creation
6 Lessons Learned From Previous Schemes with some collateral damage Incremental sales do not cover overall cost Both French plans (1994 to 1996) cost 1.03bn and only brought back 39 million in incremental VAT, registration taxes, etc. In 1997, the payback effect even added 36 million in losses Discounts become the rule First scrapping measure in Italy in 1997 opened the way to normalized discount: what is the real price? Since 1997, Italy has implemented 7 scrapping schemes that represent 4.5 years of incentivized sales Segmentation trend is only altered momentarily Small segments cars are extremely appealing because they are proportionally much cheaper Small cars reached nearly 45% of French sales in the 1994/1996 period but fell back to 39% as early as 1997 (same level as 1993) Structural impact on parc is not dramatic: too short, too limited! Late 90s/early 2000s, French parc average age kept on increasing despite more than 28 months of incentive: 6.6 years in 1993, 7 in 1997, 7.7 in /2007: despite 7 schemes, Italian parc only stabilized around 7.8 years Financial impacts are negative Impact on longer customer trends is limited
7 Volume Impact on New Car Sales 14.5 WEU - Total New Passenger Car Regs (million units) m units in 2009 of which 750,000 in Germany Payback effect is diluted as some schemes run on into 2010 Net effect: +600,000 units (but with 75% from Germany) with Scrapping w/o Scrapping
8 German Scrapping Incentives ( 5bn) Estimated Effect With and Without 2009 Programme Germany - Total New Passenger Car Regs (million units) Immediate Impact: + 750,000 units in 2009 Payback Effect: - 300,000 units (-40%) owing to planned purchases pulled forward from 2010/11 Net effect: +450,000 units (+60%) -> Why is Germany different? with Scrapping w/o Scrapping
9 Why is Germany Different? German program incentivizes private demand only Private demand was depressed for years German New Car Reg s have stayed mostly below the long-term average for the last decade Private Demand has declined over-proportionally Age of German Car Parc grew 28% (+1.6 years) since > Now above European Average => Private Replacement Demand has been delayed year after year => Significant Pent-up demand has built up for years! AND last but not least Many 1 st and probably ONE-time new car buyers (typically used car buyers) as current opportunity is as good as it gets
10 Why is Germany Different? Q Intention to buy a car within the next 12 month - Germany (Balances s.a.) Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Passenger Car New Regs - Germany (Mil. units) 14% 3.8 4% 1% 3.5 0% 0% % -2% -3% % -7% % 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -90 % o/u Average TIV (units) 10-Year Average 100% New Car Regs by Type of Customer - Germany 9.0 Average Age of Passenger Car Parc (years) - Germany* % % 40% 20% 0% PRIVATE AUTO RETAIL VEHICLE PRODUCERS RENTAL FLEETS BUSINESS OTHER 2009 (1-3) WE Average years (+28%)
11 Germany: Scrapping Incentive Impact on New Car Market Structure Relative Price Advantage of fixed scrapping premium is higher the lower the base price / list price of the new car Price elasticity is higher among typical small / cheap and used car buyers => Scrapping scheme favours small, new and young used cars with relatively low base price! Small / low price car sales grow at the expense of larger and more expensive cars => strong growth in Micro and Small cars (both Volume and MS%) Growth in small car sales will accelerate in 2009 Cause: Combination of model offer and price impact from scrapping incentive Decline in large car sales will accelerate in 2009 (esp. Large and Full-size MPV/SUV both Premium and Non-Premium) Cause: Weak business demand due to a combination of poor macro (-> business climate), higher lease rates and a structural shift towards more economical cars in business fleets In 2009 Mainstream brands will gain market share at the expense of Premium/Luxury brands Reversal of above in 2010 and return to normal from 2011/12
12 Impact on Market Segment Structure Example: Germany 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Germany - New Car Regs by Segment (thousand units) (19.4%) 1,147 (37.1%) 655 (21.2%) 190 (6.2%) +46% +75% (15.7%) 1,138 (33.8%) 958 (28.4%) 333 (9.9%) -45% -64% (21.2%) 1,019 (37.5%) 529 (19.5%) 121 (4.4%) (19.1%) 1,261 (36.8%) 755 (21.9%) 267 (7.8%) B+MPV-B + SUV-B C + MPV-C + SUV-C D + SUV-D E+F MPV-D/E + SUV-E Other
13 Volume impact on production Total Europe (incl. Turkey) - Passenger Cars (million units) Extended German plan + UK, NL, Spain Very effective impact as most incremental sales are served by European plants E.g. Dacia to hire 500 more workers to increase capacity from 1,200 to 1,340 vehicles/day by mid-june (was 1,085 in early 2009) With existing Scrapping (March 09) With latest scrapping (May 09) Without scrapping
14 So, good or bad? Direct and immediate impact on sales Effective support to production activity supports the entire supply chain Indirect impact at more macro levels (GDP, Unemployment, social measures ) GOOD Not a nation-only matter (protectionism): German scheme is definitely also helping French and Italian brands and East European countries (plants) Green effect: mechanically improves fuel efficiency and CO 2 emissions of vehicle parc Depending on country and level of incentive, can trigger new demand (Germany) BAD Payback effect on sales after schemes end Financial imbalance: expenses not offset by increased sales (VAT) Impact on selling price: list price is an illusion, bargaining becomes an ingrained behavior Some distortions in who benefits A fairly good measure for the present crisis Definitely is helping soften the 2009 slump Without compromising too much of the recovery phase Largely thanks to the German scheme ( 5bn) More generally, given the weight of the auto sector in Europe, the incentives have wider economic impact
15 Thank You! Sascha Heiden Senior Market Analyst Automotive Analysis and Forecasting
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