THE BANGCHAK PETROLEUM PLC.(BCP BCP) Opportunity Day March 23, 2006

Transcription

1 THE BANGCHAK PETROLEUM PLC.(BCP BCP) Opportunity Day March 23, 2006

2 Disclaimer The Information contained in our presentation is intended solely for your personal reference. In addition, such information contains projections and forward- looking figures that reflect the Company s current views with respect to future events and financial performance. These views are based on assumptions subject to various risks. No assurance is given that the future events will occur, that projections will be achieved, or that Company s assumptions are correct. Actual results may differ materially from those projected. 1

3 Contents 1. Company s Performance Progress of Product Quality Improvement Project (PQI) 2

4 Company s Performance 3

5 BCP : 1 out of 2 Integrated Oil Company in Thailand Sriracha IMPORT CRUDE (86%) (ME : FE = 50%:50%) Refinery Business (100%) PTT Plc. (30%) Wholesale customers (10%) Yield LPG = 3% Mogas = 18% IK/ JP-1 = 11% HSD = 35% FO = 30% Marketing Business (60%) LOCAL CRUDE (14%) Hydroskimming Refinery 120 KBD THAI INDUSTRIAL Value Chain Crude Cost Ex- Ref Price Wholesale Price Retail Price Service station Minimart/Non Oil GRM Key Strengths Low break-even refinery with remaining useful life more than 30 years MKM Large network of service stations with strong Co-op - COCO (286) - JV (190) - DODO (128) - CO-OP (545) + service station strategy 4

6 Dubai Crude Price USD/BBL Hedge Fund Buying Norway/Nigeria Concern Hurricane Asian Crisis US attack Iraq 911 Hedge Fund Buying Nigeria Concern OPEC Cartel to cut 4 series quota production at total 4.3 MBD

7 Singapore s s Oil Price Movement $/BBL IK/JET GO0.5% UNL Tapis DB FO Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 6

8 Oil Spread 2005 $/BBL JAN'05 FEB MAR APR MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC UNL/CRUDE MIX DISTILLATE/CRUDE MIX FO/CRUDEMIX Note : Oil Spread is calculated from the differences between selling prices and crude costs in FIFO method. 7

9 Details of 2005 performance by BUs Refinery Business Unit Performance Marketing Business Unit Performance EBITDA (million Baht) Actual +4,881 Target +1,343 EBITDA (million Baht) Actual -308 Target +913 M. Baht $/BBL M. Baht $/BBL M. Baht St./ L. M. Baht St./ L. Base GRM 2, , Retail Margin , Industrial Margin Improvement Programs Industrial JET Hedging Lube Margin Inventory Gain/ (Loss) 2, Total MKM Total GRM Other Income Operating Expenses (1,199) Other Income 24 (39.2) (1,144) (32.2) Sales Volume (KBD) Operating Expenses (1,120) (1.09) (1,179) (0.89) Retail Vol Industrial Vol Adjusted EBITDA +2,568 +1,343 (ML/ Month) Crude Run (KBD) - Retail Vol Industrial Vol

10 Company s performance Unit : Million Baht Actual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 EBITDA ,647 +1, ,573 Refinery ,561 +2, ,881 Marketing Net Profit ,317 +1, Total 2005 Depreciation Net Interest Exp. (187) (154) (194) (157) (195) (155) (202) (154) (779) (620) Gain/ (Loss) FX & Others (3) Gain/ (Loss) from Subsidiary Profit before tax 433 1,313 1, ,205 Tax 5 4 (302) ,927 INVENTORY GAIN/(LOSS) , ,313 9

11 Company s performance Actual 2005 Target Refinery Marketing Total 2005 EBITDA +4,881 (308) +4,573 +2,256 Depreciation (345) (434) (779) (752) Net Interest Expense (620) (732) FX Gain/ (Loss) from others 13 - Gain/ (Loss) from subsidiary 14 - Gain/ (Loss) on impairment of assets 4 - Profit before tax 3, Tax (278) - Net Profit 2, Inventory Gain/ (Loss) 2,313-2,313-10

12 Financial Performance Indicators Net Profit Margin % ROA % EPS Baht Interest Coverage Times ROE % DE Times Current Ratio Times 11

13 Domestic Oil Price Baht / Litre HSD Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 12 Retail Price Ex Ref Price

14 Domestic Oil Price Baht / Litre 35 Baht / Litre 30 U95 U Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 13 Retail Price Ex Ref Price

15 Marketing Business still has more room to improve Unit : % 11.3% 1.1% 12.4% 0.4% 12.8% 30.3% 1.3% 29.0% 3.0% 32.0% Market Share Increases 16.3% 0.4% 16.7% 0.8% 15.9% 17.6% 0.7% 18.3% 2.4% 15.9% 24.5% 0.9% 23.6% 0.0% 23.4% Others Thruput / Station still low Unit : KL/Service station/ Month

16 Sale Volumes through Service Station and Market Share MOGAS PTT SHELL ESSO BCP CTX JET PETRONAS OTHERS TOTAL Sale Volumes (ML/MO) % -6.0% -15.8% +18.6% +6.2% -7.3% -26.1% -7.8% -0.4% 2005 Market Share (%) Source : Ministry of Energy 15

17 Sale Volumes through Service Station and Market Share GASOHOL PTT SHELL ESSO BCP CTX JET PETRONAS OTHERS TOTAL Sale Volumes (ML/MO) Market Share (%) Source : Ministry of Energy 16

18 Sale Volume of Gasohol 95 Sale (ML.) No. of service station Nov 04 Dec 04 Jan 05 Feb 05 Mar 05 Apr 05 May 05 Jun 05 Jul 05 Aug 05 Sep 05 Oct 05 Nov 05 Dec 05 Jan 06 Feb ก ก ก ก Type : Standard + Cooperative Type : Standard 17

19 Sale Volume of Gasohol 91 Sale (ML.) No. of service station Dec Jan ก.. Feb Mar Apr May Jun ก.. Jul Aug Sep ก Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb ก

20 Sale Volumes through Service Station and Market Share HSD PTT SHELL ESSO BCP CTX JET PETRONAS OTHERS TOTAL Sale Volumes (ML/MO) % -2.8% -10.7% -3.4% +11.2% +6.9% -12.2% -3.1% +1.0% 2005 Market Share (%) Source : Ministry of Energy 19

21 Sale Volume of Bio Diesel (B5) Sale (KL.) No. of service station ก ก ก ก.. 49 Dec 04 Jan 05 Feb 05 Mar 05 Apr 05 May 05 Jun 05 Jul 05 Aug 05 Sep 05 Oct 05 Nov 05 Dec 05 Jan 06 Feb

22 Sale Volumes through Service Station and Market Share TOTAL PTT SHELL ESSO BCP CTX JET PETRONAS OTHERS TOTAL Sale Volumes (ML/MO) ,352 1, % -4.1% -12.5% +3.7% +9.1% +0.8% -18.4% -4.5% +0.5% 2005 Market Share (%) Source : Ministry of Energy 21

23 SERVICE STATION - MARKET SHARE FOR 2005 MOGAS GASOHOL ESSO 14.8% BCP 11.2% CTX 8.9% JET 7.7% BCP 36.3% SHELL 17.9% PTT 29.6% OTHER 7.7% PTT 37.7 OTHERS 5.5 SHELL 20.5 SHELL 14.8% ESSO 16.6% BCP 12.4% PTT 33.4% CTX 7.1% JET 6.5% OTHER 9.2% ESSO 15.9% SHELL 15.9% BCP 12.8% CTX 7.8% JET 6.9% OTHER 8.7% PTT 32.0% HSD 22 TOTAL

24 Marketing NON OIL 23

25 Event & Activities 24

26 Awards CG Awards Best Corporate Governance Report in SET AWARDS 2005 July 18, 2005 Good Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies 2005 From Thai Institute of Directors (IOD) (Top ten from 371 companies) 25

27 Awards Board of the year 2004/05 Board of the year for Exemplary Practices from Thai Institute of Directors November 28,

28 Progress of Product Quality Improvement Project 27

29 The Further Improvement: Product Quality Improvement Project EXISTING + Co-Operation with other refineries Diesel 37% Fuel Oil 31% ULG 15% LPG 3% Jet Fuel 14% GRM USD ~1.8 / Barrel PQI USD 378 Million (Incl. IDC & Contingency) + Cracking Unit COD in 2009 Diesel 52% ULG 25% Fuel Oil 9% LPG 5% Jet Fuel 9% GRM USD ~6.0 / Barrel Economic return (based on GO/FO gap of USD 13.5) IRR project > 25% Construction Period 30 Months PQI PQI investment is is necessary due due to to drastically improved GRM. GRM. 28

30 EV: Enhance BCP vs. Brand New Refinery Enhance BCP Net Debt 6,255 Btm (USD 157 m) Equity* 12,305 Btm (USD 308 m) 18,560 Btm (USD 464 m) 32,480 Btm (USD 812 m) Typical 100 KBD Refinery + Cracker Cracking unit PQI 13,920 Btm (USD 348 m) + Cracking unit + save 35,520 Btm (USD 888 m) 68,000 Btm (USD 1,700 m) Retail marketing network (1,100 stations, ~56 KBD) No marketing network Note: * revaluation inclusive 29

31 Demand & Supply in Asia Pacific Region Million Bbl/day Million Bbl/day Capacity Oil Demand Growth 3% Oil Demand Growth 2% Source : BCP Regional oil demand & supply continue to be tight 30

32 Demand & Supply in Thailand Thailand Source : KBC, PTIT, BCP 31

33 EPC Contractor CTCI Corporation 32

34 EPC Contractor Activities and Services Feasibility Study & Planning Project Management Engineering Design Procurement Fabrication Construction Commissioning Maintenance and Turnaround 33

35 EPC Contractor Experience Summary No. of Project Crude Distillation (Topping) 11 Vacuum Distillation 5 Reformer/CCR 6 FCC/RFCC 7 Hydrocracker 5 HDS/RDS 28 SRU/SRU Tail Gas Treating 29 Alkylation/Isomerization 8 MTBE/TAME 3 Visbreaking/Delayed Coking 4 Lube Oil/Condensate processing 5 Synthesis Gas 13 TOTAL

36 EPC Contractor Major Reference in Thailand Bangchak Gas Oil HDS PPG Coatings Plant Khon Kaen Nakhon Sawan Amata 170 MW CCPP Piping Work Bangkok BanpanKong Nakong Pathong Rayong Purifier Topping Unit Sriracha Rayong Diapolyacrylic PMMA Plant Thai Oil GTG/HRSG Project TOC II & HCU-2 PTTUT CUP 1 Bayer BPA & PC II Expansion Mechanical Work TOC C2 Cold Train and C3 Train Rohm & Haas PAA Plant TPC-OXY PVC Paste Resin Plant HMC PP-I Upgrading; PP-II; Year 2001 & 2002 Debottleneck Cerestar Modified Starch Plant Thai MMA TBA #2 and New MMA Tank Vinythai VCM Plant TIG ASU 400 TPD Tuntex PTA Plant ISBL; Waste Gas Venturi Scrubber; RVF Maxxis Rubber Tire Plant MPKC ( Bayer ) ABS/SAN Plant 35

37 EPC Contractor Major Reference in Thailand Client Project Scope Completion Thai Oil Siracha Refinery Expansion C 1989 Bangchak Petroleum Gas Oil HDS 18,000 BPSD EPC 1993 Tuntex PTA Plant 350,000 MTA ISBL EPC 1995 Petrochemicals Bayer Polymer ABS/SAN Plant 46,000 MTA EPs 1995 Vinythai VCM/Chlorine Plant EPs ,000 MTA HMC Polymers PP-II Plant 170,000 MTA EPC 1996 TPC-OXY PVC Paste Resin Plant EPC ,000 MTA Thai Industrial Gases ASU 400 TPD EPC 1997

38 EPC Contractor Major Reference in Thailand Client Project Scope Completion Rayong Purifier Purifier Unit 17,000 BPSD EPC 1998 Amata-EGCO Power 170 MW CCPP Piping Work EPC 1998 Rohm & Haas Poly Acrylic Acid Plant EPC 1999 Chemical 22,000 MTA Tuntex PTA Plant Waste Gas EPC 2000 Petrochemicals Venturi Scrubber Diapolyacrylic PMMA Plant Modification EPC 2001 Thai MMA MMA Plant Expansion EPC 2001 Bayer Polymer BPA and PC II Expansion EPC 2001 Mechanical Work 37

39 EPC Contractor Major Reference in Thailand Client Project Scope Completion HMC Polymers Year 2001 & 2002 EPC 2002 Debottleneck Thai Polyethylene Co., Expansion Project EPC 2002 MTP Tank Terminal PX Tank Facility EPC 2003 Tuntex PTA Plant RVF System EPC 2004 Petrochemicals Maxxis Rubber Tire Plant C 2004 Thai Olefins Co. C2 Cold Train Project EPC 2004 Thai Olefins Co. C3 Hot Train Project EPC

40 EPC Contractor Major Reference in Thailand Client Project Scope Completion PTT Utility Co., Ltd Central Utility Project 1 EPC Ongoing Maxxis Rubber Tire Plant 2 E+C Ongoing Thai Olefins Co. Plant 1 Debottleneck E Ongoing Thai Oil Refinery GTG/HRSG Project EPC Ongoing PTT Chemical Co. Cluster Flare Project EPC Ongoing PPCL PTT Phenol Project EPC Ongoing Legend: E Engineering P Procurement Ps - Procurement Service C Construction CM - Construction Management 39

41 Source and Use of Fund MUSD Use of Fund EPC Contract Price 285 Owner Supplied Material 16 Associated Costs (Consult, Training & Oth.) 19 Tank Modification & Pipeline 3 Financial Costs 25 Project Cost 348 Contingency 30 Total 378 Source of Fund PTT 120 FI New Debt 200 Owner s Expense 8-10 Total * Subject to FX situation

42 PQI Financing Structure Debt Financing Debt Financing USD 200 million Syndicated loans from 2-3 banks Indicative Term and Conditions Type : Secured Term Loan (Project Financing Basis) Amount : Baht 8,400 million Maturity : 9 and a half years with grace period during construction Interest : MLR-related Repayment :Almost equal installment profile Security : Pari passu with existing lender 41

43 PQI Financing Structure Equity Financing Equity Financing USD 175 million 1. PTT : USD 120 million 2. FI : USD million Indicative Term and Conditions of PTT s equity participation Type : Common share and Subordinated Convertible debenture Amount : USD 120 million Shareholding percentage* : 25% -30% Price : Baht 14 per share Indicative Term and Conditions of FI s equity participation Type : Common share Amount : USD million subject to PTT portion Price : Market Response * Including existing PTT shareholding in CSDR for 52 million shares 42

44 Right Offering : Warrant Warrant < 85.5 million shares Right Offer to existing shareholders at XR date Indicative Term and Conditions Type : Amount : Maturity : Ratio : Price : Exercise price : Exercise date : Warrant for subscribing the Company s common share (Specified name and transferable subject to filing approval of SEC) Not greater than 85.5 million shares 5 years 10 existing common shares or DRs to 1 warrant Not more than Baht 2.50 per warrant (Exact price shall be determined later by BOD) Baht 18 per share Every quarter 43

45 Progress of PQI Project - Contractor EPC Contractor : CTCI Corporation Technical clarification was completed in February EPC price was agreed EPC contract negotiation on commercial & legal is in process, expects to complete by end of March Assignment Agreement is in the discussion process Novation Agreement on LLI are mostly agreed with the EPC contractor LOI is expected to issue to contractor around end of March or early April 44

46 Progress of PQI Project - Equity Equity Financing : PTT Subscription Agreement is agreed between PTT & BCP, expect to sign by April Share price and investment amount is agreed including CD Terms Technical due diligence is in the process Condition precedents are preparing Escrow Agreement shall be opened around April 45

47 Progress of PQI Project- Financing Debt Financing : Lenders All related financing agreements are mostly complete Technical due diligence is in the process Banks are in process of final BOD approval KTB s consent, amendment and security sharing concept is already agreed, waiting for final approval of their BOD 46

48 Schedule of PQI Project Project Schedule - Negotiate EPC Price - Board Approves EPC - Board Approves SSA - Board Approves Loan Agreement & Amendment - Signing EPC Contract PTT : USD 120 million - Technical Due Diligence Process - PTT s Board approves SSA - CP Completion Process - Closed Financing FI : USD million - Roadshow - Book Building - Subscription Period - Closed Financing New Bank : Baht 8,400 million - Due Diligence Process - Bank's Board Approval - Signing Loan Agreement - CP Completion Process - Ready for Drawdown KTB : Baht 369 million - Revising KTB Loan Agreement & Negotiate on SSAA - KTB's Board approves SSAA & KTB Loan Amendment - Signing KTB Loan Amendment Jan Feb Mar Apr W1 W2 W3 W4 W1 W2 W3 W4 W1 W2 W3 W4 W1 W2 W3 W4 47

49 48

50 Thank You Any further questions, please contact Investor Relation Tel : (662) Fax : (662) ir@bangchak.co.th 49