Kentucky yield projections for biofuel feedstock crops. Michael Bomford Community Research Service, Kentucky State University Land Grant Program

Transcription

1 Kentucky yield projections for biofuel feedstock crops Michael Bomford Community Research Service, Kentucky State University Land Grant Program

2 Governor s biofuel plan for 225 By 225, Kentucky will derive from biofuels 12 percent of its motor fuels demand (775 million gallons/year, which represents approximately 2 percent of Kentucky s current transportation fuels demand), while continuing to produce safe, abundant, and affordable food, feed and fiber. S. Beshear. 28. Intelligent Energy Choices for Kentucky s Future.

3 Governor s biofuel plan for million gallons Corn starch for 1 st generation ethanol Switchgrass and crop residues for 2 nd generation ethanol Canola and sunflower for biodiesel How will this affect Fossil fuel consumption? Land use? Goal: 775 million gallons of renewab transportation fuel by 225 Million gallons: Canola biodiesel, 17 Corn stover ethanol, 121 Switchgrass ethanol, 361 Corn ethanol, 186 S. Beshear. 28. Intelligent Energy Choices for Kentucky s Future.

4 KY Plans to Increase Fossil Fuel Use S. Beshear. 28. Intelligent Energy Choices for Kentucky s Future.

5 IEA: 3% growth Conflicting forecasts to 23 Neither predicts 4% growth in supply Increasing demand in developing world Uppsala University: 1% decline

6 KY Energy Consumption, No change from 25 Trillion BTU Data from DOE-EIA, 28

7 US Energy Consumption, Energy consumption (EJ) DOE-EIA

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9 USDA-NASS. 29. Crop Production Historical Track Records KY Corn Yield, , Projected to % % bu/ac ton/ ac

10 USDA-NASS. 29. Crop Production Historical Track Records US Corn Yield, , 25 Projected to 23 Yield (bu/ac) % +5%

11 Fike et al. 26. Long term yield potential of switchgrass. Biomass & Bioenergy 3: KY Switchgrass Yields (Princeton) ton/ ac 5. Cave-in-Rock Shelter Alamo Kanlow Upland Cultivars Lowland Cultivars 2.2

12 Fike et al. 26. Long term yield potential of switchgrass. Biomass & Bioenergy 3: Low-input switchgrass makes more efficient use of N, energy

13 USDA-NASS. 29. Crop Production Historical Track Records KY Hay Yield, , Projected to % ton/ac

14 USDA-NASS. 29. Crop Production Historical Track Records US Hay Yield, , Projected to 23 Yield (ton/ac) %

15 USDA-NASS. 29. Crop Production Historical Track Records 2,5 2, Sunflower, , Projected to 23 US Canola & Sunflower Yield Trend Yield (lb/ac) 1,5 1, 5 Yield (lb/ac) 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Canola, Projected to % increase by t/ac

16 KY s 225 Plan for Dedicated Biofuel Feedstock Crops Feedstock Needed (1 6 ton) Yield (projected ton/ac) Area (1 6 ac) Proportion of KY Cropland (%) Corn Switchgrass Canola/ Sunflower Crop residue Total million gallons of biofuel 8% of KY s current petroleum use 3% of KY s current energy use 25-75% renewable Renewable contribution: < 2% US energy consumption was 2.8% lower in 28 than 27; petroleum consumption fell 6.4% (BP, 29)

17 Governor s vision: Crop shift Less 6 Hay Soybean 5 Winter wheat 4 Winter wheat More Switchgrass Corn Million acres 3 2 Soybean Canola Corn Switchgrass Hay Canola

18 Potential Problems Increase in corn/decrease in soybean More corn after corn More fertilizer needed, more disease, more pesticide, compromised yields Canola and sunflower Little track record in KY Both susceptible to S. sclerotiorum; proposed rotation will bring disease pressure Reduced hay, soybean, winter wheat Reduced availability of feed and food Half million acres of new cropland needed Lost biodiversity, soil quality

19 Per capita energy use (GJ/yr) Per capita greenhouse gas emissions (t CO 2 equiv.) 1 1 5

20 Conclusions Governor s projected energy demand exceeds projections from established trends Energy consumption is more likely to level off or decline than to increase by 4% by 225 Governor s 225 biofuel plan Reduces fossil fuel demand by <2% (less than reduction achieved in 28) Requires 1.6 million acres of dedicated energy crops (17% of KY cropland) Requires.5 million acres of new cropland and reduces area available for existing non-corn crops

21 Contact: Michael Bomford Learn more: EnergyFarms.net Organic.KYSU.edu Thanks to Tony Silvernail John Rodgers Brian Geier Harold Benson Kimberley Holmes Robert Barney KSU Farm crew Post Carbon Institute