Jeffrey Busby A/Director, Infrastructure Program Management TransLink Urban Sustainability Accelerator

Transcription

1 TransLink: A multi-modal, integrated transport and operations system Jeffrey Busby A/Director, Infrastructure Program Management TransLink Urban Sustainability Accelerator

2 Is the Grass Greener? Transportation Planning and Policy in Metro Vancouver Jeffrey Busby A/Dir Infrastructure Program Mgmt TransLink September 19, 2016

3 A shared vision (1975)

4 Mayors Council Vision (2014)

5 50% of Trips by Walking, Cycling, Transit 1.6 M trips 27 % 50 % 4.4 M trips 4.4 M trips 73 % 50 % 4.4 M trips Today In 30 years

6 2011 Distance and 2045 Driven Target Reduced Mode By 33% Share 1,900 1,850 1,800 1,750 1,700 1,650 VKT per Capita 10.8% 1,600 1,550 1,500 1,

7 Benefits of headline targets

8 Most Important Local Issues

9 TransLink: The TransLink Transportation Authority for the Metro Vancouver Region South Coast BC Transportation Authority Public Transport Bridges Cycling Intelligent Transportation Systems Transportation Demand Management Major Road Network

10 TransLink: The Transportation Authority for the Major Metro Road Vancouver Network Region

11 TransLink: The Transportation Authority for Frequent the Metro Transit Vancouver Network Region

12 Approves changes to fares, taxes, and strategic plans Approves budgets, policies and directs management Plans, finances, markets and communicates Delivers services

13 Sources and uses of funds

14 Fuel Levy Forecast

15 Revenues 17 cents per liter fuel tax ( 49 cents per gallon USD) $324M annual revenue (24%)

16 A brief history of Metro Vancouver fuel sales Litres of gasoline & diesel sold (millions) Refund adjustments from carbon tax $45 $40 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 Revenue at current tax rates (millions) 140 $ % gasoline 15% diesel $5 100 $0

17 What s driving fuel sales? Direct Factors Fuel Sales f Vehicle Ownership (+) Fuel Efficiency (-) VKT/Vehicle (+) Sales Leakage (-) Indirect Factors Demographics Cost of Living Transit Service Prices for Transportation Modes US/Canada Exchange Rate Income Other Factors

18 Research by F. King and J. Fox Revenue and Policy Implications from Emerging Fuel Sale Trends in Metro Vancouver, BC, Canada Transportation Research Record, No 2530, 2015

19 Average vehicle in Metro Vancouver isn t as fuel efficient as we thought % +3% -5% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 30% 40% 68% 56% other light trucks cars

20 Hybrid vehicle market penetration is still relatively low Registered Vehicles 2% 0% 6% All Hybrids Gasoline Diesel Other 92%

21 So what? Fuel efficiency was not a major factor contributing to the drop in fuel tax revenue Fuel Sales f Vehicle Ownership (+) Fuel Efficiency (-) VKT/Vehicle (+) Sales Leakage (-)

22 Total VKT from vehicles registered in Metro Vancouver stopped growing for ,500 Model results (quarterly) Moving average (annual) 4,000 Total VKT (millions) 3,500 3,000 2,500 2, transit strike 1,500 1, Vehicle Total VKT = Ownership (+) * VKT/Vehicle (+) - Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q2 2013

23 VKT per vehicle and per capita 4,000 3,500 VKT per Vehicle 8.5% VKT from Gas Vehicles 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 VKT per Capita 10.8% 1,

24 Total 10-year Change in VKT (2003 to 2013) Change in average VKT per capita Change in average VKT per vehicle 0% Burnaby & New Westminster Langleys North Shore Northeast Pitt Meadows & Maple Ridge Richmond & South Delta South of Fraser Vancouver -2% -2% -4% -6% -8% -3% -4% -4% -4% -4% -6% -5% -4% -3% -4% -10% -9% -9% -12% -11% -14% -16% -15% -14%

25 Decoupling of road usage & fuel sales Total VKT per Quarter (Billions km) Total VKT Retail gasoline sales volumes Gasoline sales (Billions L) Total VKT Retail gasoline sale volumes

26 A Canadian tradition We should get gas...e

27 The North Shore 40 min to Squamish 60 min to USA

28 Total VKT + fuel efficiency explains fuel sales in North Shore, but not in other sub-regions 1.2 North Shore South of Fraser, Langleys, Pitt Meadow, and Maple Ridge 1 Index (2014-Q4=1) VKT model predicted gasoline sales VKT model predicted gasoline sales 0.2 Actual retail gasoline sales (MJ Ervin) Actual retail gasoline sales (MJ Ervin)

29 Canadian vehicle crossings into Washington State doubled 2010 to 2014 CAD/USD exchange rate CAD/USD exchange rate CDN vehicles returning from Washington 700, , , , , , ,000 Number of Canadian vehicles returning from Wash State per Month 0 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 0

30 Strong negative correlation between total fuel sales and border crossings 60% Metro Vancouver fuel sales (MA) Percent change relative to December % 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% CDN vehicles returning from Wash. (MA) -100% Dec-90 Sep-91 Jun-92 Mar-93 Dec-93 Sep-94 Jun-95 Mar-96 Dec-96 Sep-97 Jun-98 Mar-99 Dec-99 Sep-00 Jun-01 Mar-02 Dec-02 Sep-03 Jun-04 Mar-05 Dec-05 Sep-06 Jun-07 Mar-08 Dec-08 Sep-09 Jun-10 Mar-11 Dec-11 Sep-12 Jun-13 Mar-14 Dec-14 Sep-15

31 Conclusions for fuel sales Vehicle fuel efficiency gains have been small because of a switch from cars to light trucks Fuel sales and road usage (VKT) have decoupled Unable to explain fuel sales trends without considering the USD/CAD exchange rate and border crossings into the USA

32 Results of regression analysis Variable Description Effect on VKT per vehicle Gas Price Real price of gas in previous quarter +10% -0.12% Transit Service Square root of transit service hours Double service -8.7% Median Income Real median income for region +10% +2% Vehicle Age Change in vehicle age +10% -2.4% Proximity to CBD Distance of owner to central business district (m) +10% 0.11% Proximity to regional town centre Auto Accessibility Distance of owner to regional town centre +10% 0.04% Auto access score for each TAZ (generated by EMME) +10% -0.16% Transit Accessibility Transit access score for each TAZ (generated by EMME) +10% -0.28% Jobs-Housing Balance Jobs to population ratio in each TAZ % Constant Vancouver subregion constant 6,310 km

33 Pattullo Bridge Replacement Project

34 Regional Context Pitt River, 2009 Queensborough & Alex Fraser, 1986 Pattullo, 1937 Port Mann, 2012 Golden Ears, 2009 Massey, 2022

35 Recent and Proposed Projects

36 Pattullo Bridge

37 Project Need Seismic Vulnerability Scour Deck Condition Ship Impact

38 Project Need Sidewalk Road Geometry

39 Replacement Design Challenges Downtown Surrey Proximity to existing structures Downtown New Westminster Fraser River: habitat & archaeology

40 Strategic Review

41 Regional Context No Charge No Charge $3 Toll Proposed Toll $3 Toll Proposed Toll

42 Tolling Strategic Review

43 Options Analysis 3 Crossings

44 Multiple Account Analysis Shortlisted Options

45 6 Shortlisted Options All Tolled Traffic Volumes on the 6 shortlisted tolled options Average daily volume today is 80,000 vehicles.

46 4-Lane & 6-Lane Options Trade-Offs Two options best meet project objectives: New 4-lane bridge in the existing corridor New 6-lane bridge in the existing corridor Trade-offs in bridge capacity: Support for mode share and VKT goals Support for economic development Support for travel time reliability Cost effectiveness

47 Mayors Council Vision (2014)

48 Adaptable Bridge Concept

49 Pattullo Replacement Reference Concept 4-Lane Adaptable Bridge

50 Your thoughts