Jarrell Independent School District

Transcription

1 Jarrell Independent School District Demographic Study January 22 nd, 2014 Learn from Yesterday Understand Today Plan for Tomorrow

2 Economic Conditions From 2000 to 2013, Texas outperformed the U.S. job creation rate by more than two-to-one. (Forbes) Texas has created more than 270 thousand non-farm jobs in the last 12 months. (Texas Comptroller s Office) The state's unemployment rate has been at or below the national rate for 82 consecutive months. ( ) Austin is predicted to be ranked #1 in the U.S. in job growth over the next 10 years with an estimated 4.0% sustained growth rate. (Forbes) Unemployment rates - Texas Labor Market Information (November 2013) - U.S. 6.6% - Texas 5.8% - Austin MSA 4.7% - Williamson County 4.9% Austin MSA home builders have built almost 10,000 houses in the last 12 months (Metrostudy) 2

3 National Economic Overview Top Job Growth Markets Ranked by Percent Change in Emp. Sept % 3.5% Austin, TX, 4.0% McAllen, TX, 3.7% Houston, TX, 3.5% Fort Worth Arlington, TX, 3.5% Ocala, FL, 3.4% Santa Cruz, CA, 3.4% Salt Lake City, UT, 3.4% Dallas, TX, 3.4% Laredo, TX, 3.3% Brownsville, TX, 3.1% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 7 out of the top 10 job growth cities are in Texas. Source: Forbes Magazine 3

4 Austin Market Starts and Closings 4

5 Austin Market Year Over Year Comparison Multiple Listing Service YTD SFD Activity & Inventory Sept-13 %Change YTD Sales 23,984 23% Average Price 285,300 11% Median Price 223,000 13% Listings 5,965-12% DOM 44-33% Monthly Supply % *Listings are not necessarily down, houses are selling quicker and many sell prior to listing Source: Austin Board of Realtor MLS (ABOR) 5

6 Region 13 and 20 Growth 2007/ /13 Negative >

7 New Home Ranking Report by ISD 3Q13 Austin Area Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future 1 Leander ISD 1,805 1,783 2,052 8,928 2 Austin ISD 1,512 1,572 1,412 12,529 3 Round Rock ISD 1,222 1,163 1,034 2,698 4 Hays CISD ,269 11,211 5 Lake Travis ISD ,934 4,773 6 Pflugerville ISD ,543 7 Georgetown ISD ,284 15,432 8 Manor ISD ,202 9 Dripping Springs ISD ,040 4, Del Valle ISD , Hutto ISD , San Marcos ISD , Jarrell ISD , Liberty Hill ISD , Bastrop ISD , Eanes ISD Lago Vista ISD , Taylor ISD Wimberley ISD Elgin ISD , Johnson City ISD Giddings ISD Lockhart ISD Smithville ISD Totals 10,081 9,375 15, ,261 7

8 Jarrell ISD New Housing Activity Annual Starts & Closings History 2012-Present 2013 YTD starts (112) are just a few short of the 2012 total (120) and will likely exceed 140 units for Closings YTD will likely be over 130 total for 2013, at least 16% above the 2012 total of 112 units closed. 8

9 New Home Activity The Home Place at Jarrell Phase total lots 20 homes built 40 lots under construction or under contract 40 Remaining lots Phase total lots Opening 2Q14 Phase total lots Opening 1Q15 9

10 New Home Activity Sonterra Active Single Family Future Single Family Multi-Family School Site Commercial Single Family Occupied Units 1,200 VDL 400 Future Units 3,200 Total Units 4,800 Expected Delivery Total Current Students 446 Multi-family Occupied Units Expansion 130 Future Units 120 Total Units 690 Total Current Students 34 10

11 New Home Activity Madison at Georgetown Subdivision Totals 936 Single Family Lots 2 Multi-family Lots 2 Retail Lots No homes built in homes in 2015 Section I 489 Single Family Lots 1 Multi-family Lot 1 Retail Lot Section II 288 Single Family Lots 1 Multi-family Lot 1 Retail Lot Section III 159 Single Family Lots 11

12 Housing Activity Overview The Home Place 314 total lots Build-out estimated in 2016 Estimated yield when complete per unit 190 to 250 students Sonterra 4,800 total lots Build-out estimated in 2026 Estimated yield when complete per unit 2,880 to 3,840 students Madison at Georgetown 936 total lots Build-out estimated in 2025 Estimated yield when complete per unit 560 to 750 students 12

13 Student Concentration Map 2 Mile Reside Radius 67% of students 778 of the 1,155 total enrollment Sun City 13

14 Enrollment History Cohort Analysis K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 3 year avg / / / / Total Growth Total Percent Year (Oct.) K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total 2009/ / % 2011/ , % 2012/ , % 2013/ , % *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year Rollup Analysis K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Growth Roll up , Prev Cohort , Year Cohort ,

15 Ten Year Forecast By Grade Level Total Growth Total Percent Year (Oct.) K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total 2009/ / % 2011/ , % 2012/ , % 2013/ , % 2014/ , % 2015/ , % 2016/ , % 2017/ , % 2018/ , % 2019/ , % 2020/ , % 2021/ , % 2022/ , % 2023/ , % *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year Projecting 95 (8.3%) enrollment growth for Fall 2014 with total district enrollment of 1,236. Five year enrollment growth of 658 students with total district enrollment of 1,799 in the year 2018/19. Ten year enrollment growth of 1,719 students with total district enrollment of 2,860 in the year 2023/24. 15

16 Ten Year Forecast By Campus History Current Fall Projections Campus Name 2012/ / / / / / / / / / / /24 Jarrell Elementary ,040 1,116 1,196 Elementary Total ,040 1,116 1,196 Elem. Growth Jarrell Middle School M. S. Growth Jarrell High School H. S. Growth Lott Detention Center Williamson County JJAEP TOTAL 1,080 1,141 1,236 1,354 1,490 1,630 1,799 1,979 2,185 2,402 2,636 2,860 Student Growth Jarrell Elementary will likely exceed 700 students in Jarrell Middle School will likely exceed 400 students in 2016 and 500 by Jarrell High School will likely exceed 400 students in 2017 and 600 by

17 Ten Year Forecast By Campus Alternate Campus Configuration History Current Fall Projections Campus Name 2012/ / / / / / / / / / / /24 Jarrell Elementary Elementary Total Elem. Growth Intermediate Inter. Growth Jarrell Middle School M. S. Growth Jarrell High School H. S. Growth TOTAL 1,080 1,141 1,236 1,354 1,490 1,630 1,799 1,979 2,185 2,402 2,636 2,860 Student Growth This structure relieves the capacity pressure from the elementary campus. Jarrell Elementary would not exceed 700 until 2019 with this plan. Jarrell Intermediate would likely remain under 500 students for the next 10 years Middle School and High School projections would remain the same with this plan. 17

18 Summary Austin is predicted to be ranked #1 in the U.S. in job growth over the next 10 years YTD starts (112) are just a few short of the 2012 total (120) and will likely exceed 140 units for There are 3 large subdivisions currently active in the district; Madison at Georgetown, the Home Place and Sonterra West. These 3 developments have over 1,600 future lots to deliver. Projecting 95 (8.3%) enrollment growth for Fall 2014 with total district enrollment of 1,236. Five year enrollment growth = 658 with district enrollment = 1,799 in the year Ten year enrollment growth = 1,719 with district enrollment = 2,860 in the year