Sedona and Verde Valley Real Estate 2013 in Review

Transcription

1 Sedona and Verde Valley Real Estate 213 in Review It is all about inventory! In 211 and 12, the big question was when home prices would hit bottom. With the median sales price of a single family home in the Sedona area rising 13% in 213 and with the inventory of homes available for sale lower than they have been in the last 7 years, especially in sales prices below $5,, we have to ask when are we going to see inventory rise and what impact this low inventory is going to have on prices for 214. The supply of residential inventory has fallen 57% in the Verde Valley since October of 27 and resulted in multiple offers and increasing prices. For the final piece of the housing market recovery we need to see inventory and sales in more in balance. 2 Verde Valley Residential Inventory May 6 Nov 6 May 7 Oct 7 Mar 8 July 8 Nov 8 Mar 9 July 9 May 1 Sept 1 Jan 11 July 11 Jan 12 July 12 Jan 13 July 13 Jan 14 With the reduction in inventory over the last 6 years we finally saw prices bottom out in 211 and 212 and have had a strong recovery in 213. The median sales price in the Sedona area of a single family home rose 13%. 1 Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse

2 Other areas of the Verde Valley have seen strong increases in median sales prices since the bottom of the market with prices rising 18% in the Camp Verde area, 28% in the Cottonwood and Cornville area and 35% in the Lake Montezuma and Rimrock area. Good news for homeowners in all areas of the Verde Valley. While the numbers of transactions has remained steady over the last four years, in addition to the decrease in inventory another driving force in increased prices has been the dramatic decrease in the number of foreclosures impacting the market and this trend is going to continue Annual Notice of Trustees Sales in Yavapai County (Foreclosures) The number of homeowners that are behind on the mortgages continues to decline as evidenced by the continued decrease in the Notice of Trustees sales recorded. Since their peak in 29 the number of Notice of Trustees filings in Yavapai County has decreased 72% to 1167 filings in 213, below the number in 27 and approaching numbers for a more normal real estate market. This bodes well for a continued reduction in the number of foreclosed properties impacting the market in Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse

3 So what about inventory? Where is it going to come from? In addition to the normal reasons for folks wanting to sell their homes we are going to see some of the impact of pent up sellers. Sellers that have been on the sidelines waiting for prices to rise back closer to the highs at the peak of the market, but also prices to rise enough to get them above their mortgages. In addition we are going to see more lots being purchased for new homes and more existing lot owners building a home. This should help stabilize the lot market. I think 214 will also see the start of the recovery in new home sales. As the inventory of existing homes has been reduced, sales of new homes have been at historic lows bottoming out in 29. Now that housing inventory has been whittled down, builders are becoming more confident about breaking ground. At the same time, household formation should improve along with the steady gains in the job market, adding to the number of home buyers in an already tight market. Just the Facts: Sedona area: The median price of a single family home rose 13% in 213 over 212. The number of transactions remains steady at around 4 single family sales per year as it has been for the last four years. Vacant land transactions for 213 came in at 132 with a median sales price of $146,5 up 21%, the first rise in vacant land prices since 26. Houston, we have found the bottom of land prices! The luxury market, over $1,,, for 213 had it s best year since 27 with 31 sales. We are seeing a solid recovery in this segment of the market, but there is still a multi-year amount of inventory, especially in prices above $1,5,. Cumulative days on the market saw a significant drop to 118 days, a 25% decrease over the previous 12 month period. Well priced homes coming on the market are selling and closing quickly. The median sales price for Condos and Townhomes in the Sedona area dropped slightly to $211,5 for the last 12 month period which is 4% below the $221, price for 212. The number of transactions for the last 12 month period is 96, down from 111 in 212. Camp Verde: The median sales price for single family homes in the Camp Verde area for 213 was $142,25 up 4% from 212, and up 18% from the low in 211. The number of transactions is down to 14 from the 117 in Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse

4 So what about inventory? Where is it going to come from? In addition to the normal reasons for folks wanting to sell their homes we are going to see some of the impact of pent up sellers. Sellers that have been on the sidelines waiting for prices to rise back closer to the highs at the peak of the market, but also prices to rise enough to get them above their mortgages. In addition we are going to see more lots being purchased for new homes and more existing lot owners building a home. This should help stabilize the lot market. I think 214 will also see the start of the recovery in new home sales. As the inventory of existing homes has been reduced, sales of new homes have been at historic lows bottoming out in 29. Now that housing inventory has been whittled down, builders are becoming more confident about breaking ground. At the same time, household formation should improve along with the steady gains in the job market, adding to the number of home buyers in an already tight market. Just the Facts: Sedona area: The median price of a single family home rose 13% in 213 over 212. The number of transactions remains steady at around 4 single family sales per year as it has been for the last four years. Vacant land transactions for 213 came in at 132 with a median sales price of $146,5 up 21%, the first rise in vacant land prices since 26. Houston, we have found the bottom of land prices! The luxury market, over $1,,, for 213 had it s best year since 27 with 31 sales. We are seeing a solid recovery in this segment of the market, but there is still a multi-year amount of inventory, especially in prices above $1,5,. Cumulative days on the market saw a significant drop to 118 days, a 25% decrease over the previous 12 month period. Well priced homes coming on the market are selling and closing quickly. The median sales price for Condos and Townhomes in the Sedona area dropped slightly to $211,5 for the last 12 month period which is 4% below the $221, price for 212. The number of transactions for the last 12 month period is 96, down from 111 in 212. Camp Verde: The median sales price for single family homes in the Camp Verde area for 213 was $142,25 up 4% from 212, and up 18% from the low in 211. The number of transactions is down to 14 from the 117 in Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse

5 Lake Montezuma and Rimrock: The median sales price for single family homes in the Rimrock and Lake Montezuma area for 213 was $11,75 up 11% from 212 and 35% from 211. The number of sales was down 3 to 8 sales in 213. Overall a solid recovery for this area. Cottonwood and Cornville: The median sales price for single family homes in The Cottonwood and Camp Verde area for 213 was $16, up 13% over 212 and up 28% since 211. The number of transactions was down about 3% to 487 sales. Overall, solid gains for the Cottonwood and Cornville areas of the Verde Valley. The Bottom Line: Prices will increase in 214 but not at the pace of 213, although lower priced segments of all the markets in the Verde Valley will remain strong due to lack of inventory. Interest rates will rise slightly but getting a loan will be a little pricier and dicier due to the new Dodd/Frank rules coming into effect regarding debt to income ratios and qualified loans. Job growth will remain steady, adding to the number of buyers coming into the market along with increased household formation. And this will be the year that home builders really get back into the market and add stiffer competition to existing home sellers. So the good news is rising home prices should motivate would-be sellers to put their homes on the market and also stimulate new construction, both of which will expand inventory, boost sales, and give house hunters more to choose from. Overall it will be a more back to normal year for the real estate market in Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse

6 YTD 213 Verde Valley Residential Sold vs Active.xls Price Range Rimrock Sedona Cottonwood Camp Verde Lake Montezuma Verde Valley Sold Active Sold Active Sold Active Sold Active Sold Active - 199K K - 299K K - 399K K - 499K K - 749K K - 999K Mil Mil Mil Mil Mil Mil Mil & Over Sold vs Active - 499, Sold vs. Active 5K - 999, Sold vs Active 1 Mil & Over Totals Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse Estate Data Source: SVVAR MLS as of January 3, Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse

7 YTD 213 Verde Valley Vacant Land Sold vs Active.xls Price Range Rimrock Lake Sedona Cottonwood Camp Verde Montezuma Verde Valley Sold Active Sold Active Sold Active Sold Active Sold Active - 99K K - 199K K - 299K K - 399K K - 499K K - 749K K - 999K Mil Mil Mil Mil Mil Mil 2.5 Mil & Over Sold vs Active - 499, Sold vs. Active 5K - 999, Sold vs Active 1 Mil & Over Totals Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse Estate Data Source: SVVAR MLS as of January 3, Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse

8 $7, Median Price Single Family Sedona Area $6, $59, $557,5 $528,173 $5, $48, $4, $42, $398, $358, $35, $349,95 $395, $3, $2, $1, $ Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse

9 7 Single Family Transactions Sedona Area Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse

10 5 Vacant Land Transactions Sedona Area Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse

11 $6, Median Sales Price Vacant Land Sedona Area $52, $5, $4, $375, $357, $3, $3, $225, $2, $136,347 $135, $125, $12,625 $146,5 $1, $ Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse

12 2 Verde Valley Residential Inventory Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse

13 Sedona Residential Inventory Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse

14 Verde Valley Vacant Land Inventory May 6 Sept 6 Nov 6 Jan 7 April 7 June 7 Aug 7 Sept 7 Nov 7 Jan 8 Mar 8 May 8 July 8 Sept 8 Nov 8 Jan 9 April 9 June 9 Aug 9 Nov 9 May 1 June 1 Sept 1 Oct 1 Jan 11 April 11 July 11 Oct 11 Jan 12 April 12 July 12 Oct 12 Jan 13 April 13 July 13 Oct 13 Jan Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse

15 6 Sedona Vacant Land Inventory May 6 Sept 6 Nov 6 Jan 7 April 7 June 7 Aug 7 Sept 7 Nov 7 Jan 8 Mar 8 May 8 July 8 Sept 8 Nov 8 9-Jan April 9 June 9 Aug 9 Nov 9 May 1 June 1 Sept 1 Oct 1 Jan11 April 11 July 11 Oct 11 Jan 12 April 12 July 12 Oct 12 Jan 13 April 13 July 13 Oct 13 Jan Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse

16 6 Single Family Transactions Above $1,, Sedona Area Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse

17 2 Cumulative Median Days on Market for Single Family Sedona Area Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse

18 45 Yavapai County Notice of Trustees Sales (Foreclosures Initiated) Jan 8 Mar 8 May 8 July 8 Sept 8 Nov 8 Jan 9 Mar 9 May 9 July 9 Sept 9 Nov 9 Jan 1 Mar 1 May 1 June 1 July 1 Aug 1 Sept 1 Nov 1 Jan 11 March 11 May 11 July 11 Sept 11 Nov 11 Jan 12 Mar 12 May 12 July 12 Sept 12 Nov 12 Jan 13 Feb 13 March 13 April 13 May 13 June 13 July 13 Aug 13 Sept 13 Oct 13 Nov 13 Dec Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse

19 45 Annual Notice of Trustees Sales in Yavapai County (Foreclosures) Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse

20 $3, Median Price Single Family Camp Verde Area $285, $283,45 $25, $239,875 $213,5 $2, $166, $15, $147,5 $136, $137, $142,25 $12, $1, $5, $ Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse

21 14 Single Family Transactions Camp Verde Area Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse

22 12 Single Family Transactions Lake Montezuma and Rimrock Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse

23 $25, Median Sales Price Single Family Lake Montezuma and Rimrock $22, $217,95 $2, $185, $15, $15,4 $158,5 $125, $1, $97,95 $81,825 $99,975 $11,75 $5, $ Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse

24 $3, Median Price Single Family Cottonwood - Cornville Areas $25, $245,5 $255, $259,9 $21, $2, $189, $15, $171, $149, $142, $16, $125, $1, $5, $ Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse

25 8 Single Family Transactions Cottonwood - Cornville Areas Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse

26 Verde Valley Single Family Foreclosed and Short Sale Listings 4 Verde Valley Single Family Listings Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse

27 Verde Valley Single Family Foreclosed/Short Sales Solds Verde Valley Single Family Total Solds 27 Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse

28 $45, Median Sales Price Condominiums and Townhomes Sedona Area $4, $395, $35, $35, $3, $277, $31, $295, $275, $25, $255, $2, $162,5 $158, $184,995 $21, $196,5 $221, $211,5 $15, $1, $5, $ Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse

29 16 Number of Condominuims and Townhomes Sold Sedona Area Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse

30 $35, $3, Verde Santa Fe Median Sales Price $327,5 $317,5 $295, $262,175 $25, $244,58 $27,756 $29, $216, $2, $187,776 $177, $172,5 $173,5 $19,95 $15, $1, $5, $ Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse

31 1 Verde Santa Fe Number of Sales Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse

32 Verde Santa Fe Number of Sales Distressed Sales:Foreclosed and Short Sales Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse

33 $35, Median Sales Price Manufactured and Mobile Homes Sedona Area $3, $286, $258, $25, $234,95 $2, $18, $15, $16, $162,75 $136,7 $138,889 $146, $1, $12,5 $5, $ Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse

34 7 Manufacured and Home Homes Transactions Sedona Area Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse

35 $3, Median Sales Price Cottonwood Single Family Homes $25, $244, $242,5 $23, $2, $2, $174,5 $15, $15, $135, $135, $145, $112, $1, $5, $ Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse

36 6 Cottonwood Single Family Homes number of Transactions Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse

37 $2, Median Sales Price Cottonwood Condos and Townhomes $185, $18, $174, $16, $14, $127,9 $134,5 $12, $12,4 $1, $12, $93, $15,25 $84,5 $8, $76,125 $6, $4, $2, $ Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse

38 6 Cottonwood Condos and Townhomes numbers of Transactions Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse

39 $14, Median Sales Price Cottonwood Mobile and Manufactured Homes $12, $122,75 $118, $117,9 $17,5 $1, $83, $8, $7, $6, $58,8 $6, $5, $48,9 $4, $2, $ Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse

40 16 Cottonwood Mobile and Manufactured Homes numbers of Transactions Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse

41 $18, Median Sales Price Cottonwood Vacant Land $16, $155,9 $155,45 $14, $12, $1, $12, $99, $15, $8, $69, $6, $59, $4, $4, $4, $26,875 $2, $ Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse

42 2 Cottonwood Vacant Land Numbers of Transaction Provided Courtesy of Randy Crewse