HOUSING REPORT NORTHWEST MICHIGAN YEAR END 2018
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- Geraldine Caldwell
- 5 years ago
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1 NORTHWEST MICHIGAN
2 Northwest Michigan 218 Highlights Waterfront Non-Waterfront : dropped 2% from last year to the lowest level in the past 4 years : had a slight decline of 3% from the prior year. Average Sale Price: continued to climb up 6% from prior year to set a new historic high. Despite more upper-end sales, upper-end values flattened and began to decline. Average Sale Price: continued to climb. It set a new historic high up 5% from prior year. Although the increase in the number of upper-end sales raised the average sale price, upper-end values were flat. Closed Volume: dropped 15% in 218. This was the first post-recession decline. Closed Volume: Up 2% from prior year. Although entry and mid-priced markets shrank, an increase in the number of upper-end sales lifted closed volume.
3 Northwest Michigan 219 Outlook Most experts predict that closed sales will decline while prices will continue to rise through and beyond 219, but at a slower rate. Rising interest rates, prices and property taxes (as prices rise, taxes rise) which have been increasing faster than incomes have been squeezing buyers out of the market or limiting how much house they can afford. The peak of the post-recession demand is waning as many of those who were in position to take advantage of past market opportunities already have. Baby Boomers are working longer, putting off retirement, and delaying their next move. Many bought or refinanced at sub 3% interest rates. Their property taxes have also been capped for years. Not wanting to give up those rates and the lower capped taxes on their existing homes have been keeping Boomers from moving. Recession Fear Rising fear that a recession is on the horizon could cause demand for homes to scale back as prices continue to rise. Consumer confidence is wavering due to recession fear, stock market jumps, trade wars, and the longest government shutdown in history. Many Millennials put off buying while they focused on paying down their student debt. With interest rates and prices rising, those who haven t already done so may want to take their first plunge into the market soon rather than waiting. Many of the homes they can still afford today will be moving out of reach. Rising interest rate affect everyone. Sellers who are planning to make a move should do so before rates continue to rise. As they rise, fewer buyers can afford a given price.
4 Buyer Costs In addition to rising prices, both mortgage rates and property taxes are moving targets that can limit affordability. Mortgage Rates: As prices and rates rise, the number of buyers that qualify to purchase a given home goes down. For a typical home in the $2k to $25k price range, a 1% increase in the mortgage rate results in a 1% drop in the number of buyers who can afford it. The typical Freddie Mac mortgage payment is projected to reach $1, a month in 219. The payment on a similar home in 212 would have only been $55 a month. As prices rise, property taxes rise. In Michigan, once you own your home, taxes are capped so that the most they can rise in a given year is the lesser of 5% or the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Property Taxes: Since 215, the average local sale price rose 17% for waterfront and 26% for non-waterfront homes, but the CPI-capped taxable assessment values increased by less than 6%. Taxes on the same house bought in 215 would be 1 to 2% less than taxes on the same house purchased today. This is another reason why in a rising market, there are tax benefits for locking in your cap sooner while prices are lower rather than waiting for prices to go up. Millennial Challenges Student debt is having an impact on millennial homeownership. According to a recent Bloomberg business report, 36% of households between 24 and 32 owned homes in 214 a drop of nearly 1% from the same age group in 25. During that same period, average student debt doubled from $5, to $1,. 44 million borrowers collectively owe $1.5 trillion in student loan debt in the U.S. Student loans are now the second highest consumer debt category behind mortgages. This has been a concern as Millennials enter into what are typically first-time home buying years. Currently the average age of a first-time home buyer is 32 years old. If student debt remains the burden that it is today, the average age when a 218 college graduate will purchase their first home will be years after they graduate with a bachelor s degree. With prices, mortgage interest rates and property taxes rising faster than an average buyer s income, it makes sense for both buyers and sellers who are planning to make a move to do so sooner rather than waiting.
5 TAAR 5 County Condos Traverse Area Association of Realtors % from last year 471-9% from last year $241K +4% from last year $113M -6% from last year $1-125k $125-2k $2-35k $35k+ Units % Avg Sale $ $249 $247 $246 $219 $241 4% $ Vol $2 $32 $37 $23 $113-6% DOM % Units % DOM % % Units % DOM % 8% Units % DOM % 4% Units % DOM % was a strong condo sales year, but fell short of the record sales and closed volume set in 217. Although average sale price was up 4%, closed sales and closed volume were down 9% and 6% respectively. The condo story for 218 has to do with the number of new high-end units built in Traverse City. Heading into 219, 4% (165) of the 416 available 5-County condos were brand new units with a median list price of $46k. Only 37 of last year s 471 closed condo sales sold for more than $46. On January 1, 219 there were three times as many listings priced over $46k, as sold in all of 218. $3, $25, $2, $15, $1, $5, -2%
6 Waterfront TAAR 5 County Traverse Area Association of Realtors 38-8% from last year 69-2% from last year $487K +6% from last year $297M -15% from last year $1-25k $25-5k $5-75k $75k+ Units % Avg Sale $ $478 $449 $516 $493 $487 6% $ Vol $41 $72 $17 $76 $297-15% DOM % Units % DOM % 5% Units % DOM % 2% Units % DOM % 2% Units % DOM % Although the average waterfront sale price was up by 6% last year, the number of sales dropped from 759 in 217 to 69 in 218. While sales in the over-$75k price range were nearly the same (all other price ranges saw double digit declines), values in those upper price ranges dropped with average sale price down 6% and closed volume down 9%. Heading into 219, available listings were down 8% from a year ago. Most of that drop was the result of 41 fewer high-end listings in the over-$75k price range. $6, $5, $4, $3, $2, $1, -2%
7 Non-Waterfront TAAR 5 County Traverse Area Association of Realtors % from last year 219-3% from last year $226K +5% from last year $456M +2% from last year $1-125k $125-2k $2-35k $35k Average sale price and closed volume increased 5% and 2% in 218 compared to the prior year. Even with inventory levels up 18%, the number of closed sales dropped 3%. Entry and mid-priced markets shrank with fewer sales, while the number of sales priced over $2k increased. Despite an increase in the number of upper-end sales, those values have been flattening. The over-$35k market saw the largest sale increase, but average price was up less than 1% and price per square foot dropped 6%. While other price ranges saw declining market times, upper-end properties rose from 12 days to 131 days. Units % Avg Sale $ $27 $24 $23 $218 $226 5% $ Vol $67 $123 $155 $11 $456 2% DOM % Units % DOM % 3% Units % DOM % 3% Units % DOM % 2% Units % DOM % 1% $3, $25, $2, $15, $1, $5,
8 Waterfront Antrim County 69-16% from last year % from last year $491K +7% from last year $61M -19% from last year $1-15k $15-35k $35-5k $5k While the 218 average sale price rose 7% compared to the prior year, the number of closed sales dropped 24% and closed volume was down 19%. Although sales priced over $5k dropped the least (from 58 to 52), values of those upper-end properties were flat the average price dropped 4% and price per square foot was flat. Properties that sold in 218 sold a little faster. Average market times were 1 days shorter. Heading into 219, waterfront inventory levels were down 16% from a year ago. Higher interest rates and a general loss of post-recovery momentum will likely slow the market. Units % Avg Sale $ $485 $435 $52 $531 $491 7% $ Vol $1 $16 $23 $12 $61-19% DOM % Units % DOM % 2% Units % DOM % 18% Units % DOM % 1% Units % DOM % % $8, $6, $4, $2,
9 Non-Waterfront Antrim County 93-17% from last year 25-12% from last year $159K +8% from last year $33M -4% from last year $25, $2, $15, $1, $5, Although average sale price rose 8% in 218, closed sales and closed volume were down 12% and 4% respectively from the prior year. The only price segment with an increase in activity was the group priced between $2k and $35k. At the upper end of the market, there were only 5 sales priced over $35k last year and heading into 219 there were 19 available listings more than double the number from a year ago. Upper-end sellers face tough competition for a small number of buyers. Units % Avg Sale $ $129 $175 $164 $154 $159 8% $ Vol $4 $1 $11 $8 $33-4% DOM % Units % $1-125k DOM % 5% Units % $125-2k DOM % 1% Units % $2-35k DOM % 2% Units % $35k+ DOM % -4%
10 Waterfront Benzie County 51-7% from last year 71-26% from last year $41K +1% from last year $29M -18% from last year $1-25k $25-5k $5-75k $75k+ Units % Avg Sale $ $557 $413 $391 $373 $41 1% $ Vol $4 $8 $8 $9 $29-18% DOM % Units % DOM % Units % DOM % Units % DOM #DIV/! % 18% Units % DOM % The number of Benzie County waterfront sales was down by 26% from 217. Over the past four years, there has been a pattern of a strong sale years followed by years with a big drop. The $41 average sale price was up by 1%. That increase was primarily driven by a rise from 7 to 12 homes sold in the $5k-$75k price range. Values in that $5k-$75k price range also jumped while prices in the other market segments made little movement. Sellers in the over-$75k market face tough competition there were 15 available listings heading into 219 and only 6 sales all of last year. $8, $6, $4, $2, -5% -1% -18%
11 Non-Waterfront Benzie County 89 +5% from last year % from last year $23K +5% from last year $48M +7% from last year $1-125k $125-2k $2-35k $35k The number of Benzie County sales has been remarkably stable in recent years. Last year s 239 sales were just three higher than the previous year and exactly even with 216. Average sale price rose by 5% and the average days on market for those sales dropped from 138 days to 16 days. The upper-end market continues to develop. In 216 there were only five over $35k sales, then 13 in 217 and 2 in 218. Heading into 219, inventory was up slightly from a year ago. Rising interest rates have been making homes less affordable and slowing sales. Units % Avg Sale $ $182 $228 $25 $192 $23 5% $ Vol $6 $11 $18 $13 $48 7% DOM % Units % DOM % % Units % DOM % 2% Units % DOM % 9% Units % DOM % 15% $3, $25, $2, $15, $1, $5,
12 Waterfront Grand Traverse County 14-1% from last year % from last year $497K +8% from last year $18M -7% from last year $1-25k $25-5k $5-75k $75k Newer high-end developments and recently remodeled homes helped lift the average sale price 1% last year to just under $5k. Sales in all other price ranges dropped by double digit amounts and closed volume was down 7%. Of the 14 waterfront listings that were available on January 1st, 17 were new construction homes with an average price in excess of $1 million. Selling the newer high-end waterfront homes (and condos) will require development of new high-end buyer sources. People from around the world are attracted to Michigan s fresh water. Units % Avg Sale $ $446 $519 $55 $494 $497 8% $ Vol $14 $28 $38 $29 $18-7% DOM % Units % DOM % 9% Units % DOM % 3% Units % DOM % 3% Units % DOM % 7% $6, $5, $4, $3, $2, $1,
13 Non-Waterfront Grand Traverse County % from last year % from last year $244K +2% from last year $277M +5% from last year $1-125k $125-2k $2-35k $35k+ Units % Avg Sale $ $227 $254 $248 $242 $244 2% $ Vol $45 $74 $91 $66 $277 5% DOM % Units % DOM % 2% Units % DOM % 5% Units % DOM % 1% Units % DOM % Grand Traverse County was one of a few markets where inventory, closed sales, prices and volume were all up compared to 217. There has been a market shift with fewer homes available under $2k while the proportion of upper-end homes has been increasing as homeowners remodel and developers build. Of the 41 listings that were available on January 1st, 97 were brand new or under construction. So many new units hitting the market in such a short time has been creating seller competition. Although the number of luxury sales has been increasing, high-end values have been flat or on a slight decline. $35, $3, $25, $2, $15, $1, $5, -1%
14 Waterfront Kalkaska County 29 no change from last year 72-26% from last year $228K -3% from last year $16M -28% from last year $4, $3, $2, $1, Sales dropped from 97 properties in 217 to 72 last year. Average price dropped 3% and closed volume dropped from $23 million to $16 million. Because of the small market size, Kalkaska averages tend to bounce. In markets with small sample sizes like this, looking at the actual numbers within the price ranges is most helpful. Lack of inventory continues to hinder market activity. Heading into 219 there were only 29 available listings and only 6 of those were priced over $35k. Units % Avg Sale $ $236 $238 $227 $218 $228-3% $ Vol $2 $5 $4 $5 $16-28% DOM % Units % $1-15k DOM % -13% Units % $15-35k DOM % 2% Units % $35-5k DOM #DIV/! % 11% Units % $5k+ DOM % -21%
15 Non-Waterfront Kalkaska County 92 +1% from last year % from last year $12K +11% from last year $26M -4% from last year $2, $15, $1, $5, Although average sale price rose 11% in 218, closed sales were down 13% and closed volume was down 4% compared to the prior year. The market has been shrinking in the lower and expanding in the upper price ranges. There were 42 fewer under-$2k sales last year and 9 additional over-$2k sales compared to the prior year. Heading into 219, inventory levels were up 1% compared to last year. Again, there were more upper-end and fewer entry-priced available units. Units % Avg Sale $ $12 $129 $117 $123 $12 11% $ Vol $3 $7 $9 $7 $26-4% DOM % Units % $1-75k DOM % -1% Units % $75-125k DOM % % Units % $125-2k DOM % -1% Units % $2k+ DOM % 9%
16 Waterfront Leelanau County 55-18% from last year % from last year $66K -1% from last year $82M -17% from last year $1,, $8, $6, $4, $2, 218 fell short of keeping up with the record numbers posted in 217. Sales dropped from 147 to 124 units. Average price checked back slightly from $669k to $66k and closed volume dropped by $16 million. Inventory levels were light heading into 219 and new competition lies ahead with luxury waterfront condos and homes being constructed in Traverse City. Units % Avg Sale $ $63 $522 $687 $798 $66-1% $ Vol $1 $16 $34 $22 $82-17% DOM % Units % $1-2k DOM % 32% Units % $2-4k DOM % -12% Units % $4-8k DOM % -4% Units % $8k+ DOM % 1%
17 Non-Waterfront Leelanau County % from last year % from last year $318K +8% from last year $72M -5% from last year $375, $3, $225, $15, $75, 218 sales and closed volume dropped by 13% and 5% respectively compared to the prior year. While average sale price was up by 8%, much of that increase resulted from a shift in the mix of what sold as opposed to an increase in value. There were 46 fewer sales priced under $35k and a increase of 13 sales for homes priced over $35k. Despite the increase in high-end sales, both the price per square foot and average price for those sales were flat or even declined. Units % Avg Sale $ $275 $339 $35 $281 $318 8% $ Vol $9 $21 $26 $17 $72-5% DOM % Units % $1-125k DOM % 17% Units % $125-2k DOM % 9% Units % $2-35k DOM % 3% Units % $35k+ DOM % %
18 Waterfront Wexford County 3 +2% from last year 75 no change from last year $249K +19% from last year $19M +19% from last year $1-125k $125-2k $2-35k $35k+ Units % Avg Sale $ $288 $229 $233 $273 $249 19% $ Vol $3 $5 $7 $4 $19 19% DOM % Units % DOM % Units % DOM % 19% Units % DOM % Average price jumped from $28k to a record-high $249k in 218. The higher prices combined with sales that were level with the prior year created a new closed volume record of $19 million. Market times were shorter than in previous years. Average days on market dropped from 163 days to 118 days and the sale price to list price ratio rose from 93% to 96%. While some of the higher-end waterfront markets in surrounding counties began to show signs of stalling, the Wexford County upper-end market continued to expand in terms of both sales and price. Units % DOM % 8% $4, $3, $2, $1, -18% -3%
19 Non-Waterfront Wexford County 13-28% from last year 432-1% from last year $125K +11% from last year $54M +1% from last year $15, $125, $1, $75, $5, $25, 218 was a good year for real estate sales in Wexford County. While sales were just a few units shy of even with the prior year, average sale price was up 11% and closed volume was up 1% from the previous record year. Heading into 219, inventory levels were down from 143 a year ago to 13 this year. Options are limited for entry-level buyers. There were 54 listings priced under $75k a year ago. This year, there are only 18. Units % Avg Sale $ $11 $129 $132 $129 $125 11% $ Vol $8 $17 $16 $13 $54 1% DOM % Units % $1-75k DOM % 4% Units % $75-125k DOM % 7% Units % $125-2k DOM % 4% Units % $2k+ DOM % 1%
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