WORTHINGTON SCHOOLS ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS REPORT JANUARY 25, 2019

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1 JANUARY 25, 2019 PREPARED FOR: Worthington Schools 200 E. Wilson Bridge Rd. Worthington, OH T PREPARED BY: Cooperative Strategies 3325 Hilliard Rome Road Hilliard, OH T

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3 Table of Contents Acknowledgements... 2 Executive Summary... 3 Enrollment Projection Methodology... 5 U.S. Census... 8 General Demographics... 9 Estimated School Aged Population Growth Housing Data Resident Live Birth Data Survival Ratios Historical Enrollment Projected Enrollment Enrollment by Boundary Conclusion... 84

4 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS On behalf of Cooperative Strategies, we would like to extend our appreciation to the Worthington Schools for the opportunity to assist them in developing this Enrollment Projections Report. As a planning team, we hope that this document will serve the Worthington Schools for years to come. COOPERATIVE STRATEGIES Tracy Richter, President, Partner Ann Hoffsis, REFP, Senior Director Matt Sachs, Associate Director Sean Hayes, Senior Associate 3325 Hilliard Rome Road Hilliard, OH P PAGE 2

5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The enrollment projections for the Worthington Schools included in this report were developed using the cohort survival methodology and Cooperative Strategies custom enrollment projection software, S.T.E.P. [Student Trends & Enrollment Projections]. This custom software was developed in collaboration with The Ohio State University and is based on industry best practices as well as the national experience Cooperative Strategies has with schools, school districts, and state agencies. The Worthington Schools is a suburban school district located outside of Columbus, Ohio. There are 1 PK school, 11 elementary schools, 3 middle schools, and 2 high schools, and 2 alternative schools serving over 10,000 students. The projections presented in this report are meant to serve as a planning tool for the future, and represent the most likely direction of the District. Enrollment projections were developed using the cohort survival methodology and by analyzing the following data outlined in this report: Live birth data Historical enrollment by elementary boundary, by grade Census data Building permits Enrollment projections by grade were developed based on students living within the current elementary boundaries. Enrollment in the Worthington Schools has increased by 1,180 PK-12 students since the school year (not including unmatched or out-of-district students). Based on the cohort survival methodology, enrollment is projected to increase over the next ten years. 16,000 Historical & Projected Enrollment -Worthington School District 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Historical Projected - Recommended Projected - Moderate Projected - Low Projected - High PAGE 3

6 As with any projection, the District should pay close attention to the variables associated with determining enrollment projections discussed in this document. Any one or more of these factors can increase or decrease enrollment within the Worthington Schools. It is recommended that the data contained in this report be reviewed on an annual basis to determine how more recent trends will impact both the enrollment and any new housing development. PAGE 4

7 ENROLLMENT PROJECTION METHODOLOGY Introduction Tracing the landscape of the country s public school enrollment back over the past fifty years reveals demographic, economic, and social changes. The United States as a whole continues to undergo major shifts in public student enrollment, due in large part to past events including the baby boom, the availability and use of birth control, and the development of suburbs. The baby boom of the late 1940s and 50s was followed by the baby bust of the 1960s and 70s. This gave rise to the echo baby boom of the 1980s U.S. POPULATION - LIVE BIRTH RATE PER 1,000 POPULATION Source: CDC, National Vital Statistics Report Nationwide, districts have experienced the effects of the echo baby bust of the 1990s. From the 1950s to the 1970s, a dramatic downsizing of the family unit occurred. A direct result was the declining school enrollment of the 1970s and 1980s. As of the 2010 Census, the size of a family was at an all-time low of 3.14 persons. The live birth rate increased for the first time in several years in 1998 and increased again in However, the birth rate resumed a descending pattern in 2001 and reached an all-time low of 11.8 (per 1,000) in PAGE 5

8 When projecting future enrollments, it is vital to track the number of live births, the amount of new housing activity, and the change in household composition. In addition, any of the following factors could cause a significant change in projected student enrollment: Boundary adjustments New school openings Changes / additions in program offerings Preschool programs Change in grade configuration Interest rates / unemployment shifts Intra- and inter-district transfer Magnet / charter / private school opening or closure Zoning changes Unplanned new housing activity Planned, but not built, housing School voucher programs School closures Obviously, certain factors can be gauged and planned for far better than others. For instance, it may be relatively straightforward to gather housing data from local builders regarding the total number of lots in a planned subdivision and calculate the potential student yield. However, planning for changes in the unemployment rate, and how these may either boost or reduce public school enrollment, proves more difficult. In any case, it is essential to gather a wide variety of information in preparation for producing enrollment projections. When looking ahead at a school district s enrollment over the next two, five, or ten years, it is helpful to approach the process from a global perspective. For example: How many new homes have been constructed each year? How many births have occurred each year in relation to the resident population? Is housing experiencing a turnover if so, what is the composition of families moving in/out? Are more or less students attending private school or being home-schooled? What has the unemployment rate trend been over the past ten years? What new educational policies are in place that could affect student enrollment figures? The cohort survival methodology is often used to answer these questions and is standard throughout the educational planning industry. The enrollment projections developed for the Worthington Schools were developed using the cohort survival method. PAGE 6

9 Cohort Survival Method The cohort survival methodology (sometimes referred to as the grade progression ratio method) is a widely used enrollment projection model that is used by many school districts and state and federal agencies to project K-12 enrollment. A cohort is a group of persons [in this case, students]. The cohort survival enrollment projection methodology uses historic live birth data and historic student enrollment to age a known population or cohort throughout the school grades. For instance, a cohort begins when a group of kindergarteners enrolls in grade K and moves to first grade the following year, second grade the next year, and so on. A survival ratio is developed to track how this group of students increased or decreased in number as they moved through the grade levels. By developing survival ratios for each grade transition [i.e. 2nd to 3rd grade] over a ten year period of time, patterns emerge. A projection ratio for each grade transition is developed based on analysis of the survival ratios. The projections are used as a multiplier in determining future enrollment. For example, if student enrollment has consistently increased from the 8th to the 9th grade over the past ten years, the survival ratio would be greater than 100% and could be multiplied by the current 8th grade to develop a projection for next year s 9th grade. This methodology can be carried through to develop ten years of projection figures. Because there is not a grade cohort to follow for students coming into kindergarten, resident live birth counts are used to develop a birth-to-kindergarten survival ratio. Babies born five years previous to the kindergarten class are compared in number, and a ratio can be developed to project future kindergarten enrollments. The cohort survival method is useful in areas where population is stable [relatively flat, growing steadily, or declining steadily], and where there have been no significant fluctuations in enrollment, births, and housing patterns from year to year. The cohort survival methodology inherently considers the net effects of factors such as migration, housing, dropouts, transfers to and from charter schools, open enrollment, and deaths. This methodology does not assume changes in policies, program offerings, or future changes in housing and migration patterns. PAGE 7

10 U.S. CENSUS According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the population in Worthington, Ohio decreased from 14,125 to 13,575, or approximately 4 percent, between the 2000 and 2010 Census. In terms of school-aged children [5-19], the population decreased by 385, or 13 percent. The under age 5 population increased from 752 to 840, or 12 percent. The median age of a Worthington, Ohio resident is 44.9, an increase of 1.0 year since the 2000 Census. The average household size decreased from 2.42 to The average family size decreased from 2.92 to The number of total housing units increased in tandem with the number of vacant housing units. The number of occupied housing units remained relatively flat. The table to the right provides a comparison of the 2000 and 2010 U.S. Census data. WORTHINGTON CITY, OHIO U.S. CENSUS Subject Total population 14,125 13,575 SEX AND AGE Male 6,619 6,402 Female 7,506 7,173 Under 5 years to 19 years 2,914 2, to 64 years 7,857 7, years and over 2,602 2,591 Median age (years) RACE One Race 98.8% 98.0% White 94.0% 93.0% Black or African American 1.7% 2.2% American Indian and Alaska Native 0.1% 0.0% Asian 2.8% 2.3% Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander 0.0% 0.0% Some Other Race 0.2% 0.5% Two or More Races 1.2% 2.0% Hispanic or Latino 1.0% 1.7% DEMOGRAPHICS Average household size Average family size HOUSING OCCUPANCY Total housing units 5,845 5,940 Occupied housing units 5,692 5,691 Vacant housing units Source: U.S. Census PAGE 8

11 GENERAL DEMOGRAPHICS The following information represents block group estimates and projections created from market research and U.S. Census data obtained from the Environmental Systems Research Institute [ESRI]. ESRI provides a yearly update to their demographic data in increments of five years. To make updates to their demographic data set, they use American Community Survey [ACS] data that takes a series of monthly sample surveys but only from areas with populations of 65,000 or more. One year of ACS data is a period estimate as a twelve-month average, rather than a single point in time. According to the ESRI estimates, the total population of Franklin County, Ohio is projected to increase over the next five years. As illustrated in the table below, the number of children, ages 5-18, is projected to increase by 7,685 children, or approximately 3 percent. 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Age Ages ,296 53,894 Ages ,884 34,592 Ages ,531 99,687 Ages ,674 49,250 Ages ,510 82,463 Ages , ,400 Total Population 1,294,124 1,375,004 Source: ESRI BIS FRANKLIN COUNTY POPULATION ESTIMATES FRANKLIN COUNTY POPULATION ESTIMATES 0 Ages 0-2 Ages 3-4 Ages 5-10 Ages Ages PAGE 9

12 ESTIMATED SCHOOL AGED POPULATION GROWTH The map on the following page shows school age population change in the U.S. Census block groups within / around the Worthington Schools boundary. Population changes are based on 2018 and 2023 estimates. A block group is defined by the U.S. Census Bureau as, a statistical division of a census tract, generally defined to contain between 600 and 3,000 people and 240 and 1,200 housing units, and the smallest geographic unit for which the Census Bureau tabulates sample data. PAGE 10

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14 HOUSING DATA Housing development and building permits are tracked to determine their effect on student enrollment. The table below illustrates the number of single and multi-family building permits issued in Worthington since BUILDING PERMITS WORTHINGTON, OH Year Single-Family Multi-Family * 8 0 Source: SOCDS Building Permits Database *preliminary through October 2018 PAGE 12

15 RESIDENT LIVE BIRTH DATA Utilization of resident live birth data is recommended when projecting future kindergarten enrollments. This data provides a helpful overall trend. Large bubbles in birth counts, either up or down, can also be planned for or anticipated by the District. In addition, the live birth counts are used in determining a birth-to-kindergarten and birth-to-first grade survival ratio. This ratio identifies the percentage of children born in a representative area who attend kindergarten and first grade in the District five and six years later. The survival ratios for birth-to-kindergarten, birth-to-first grade, as well as grades 1-12 can be found on page 16 of this report. Data is arranged by the residence of the mother. For example, if a mother lives in Worthington but delivers her baby in Cleveland, the birth is counted in Worthington. Live birth counts are different from live birth rates. The live birth count is simply the actual number of live births. A birth rate is the number of births per 1,000 women in a specified population group. The table illustrates live birth counts for zip codes 43016, 43065, 43081, 43085, 43229, and Resident Live Birth Counts by Zip Code Year , Source: Ohio Department of Health PAGE 13

16 The map on the following page illustrates the elementary boundaries and the zip codes within the Worthington Schools. Based on an analysis of student population and elementary boundaries, zip code was used to project kindergarten enrollment for the Granby boundary; zip code was used for the Liberty boundary; zip code was used for the Slate Hill, Worthington Estates, and Worthington Park boundaries; zip code was used for the Colonial Hills, Evening Street, Slate Hill, Wilson Hill, and Worthington Estates boundaries; zip code was used for the Colonial Hills boundary; and zip code was used for the Bluffsview, Brookside, Granby, Slate Hill, Worthington Estates, and Worthington Hills boundaries. 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, RESIDENT LIVE BIRTH COUNTS BY ZIP CODE PAGE 14

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18 SURVIVAL RATIOS The chart below demonstrates the ten-year changes in enrollment as students move through the system. Percentages greater than 100 indicate that there are more students than there were in the previous grade the previous year. In other words, there was an increase in student population where new students were added to the system. Percentages less than 100 indicate that there was decline or students left the system. If the exact number of students in 1st grade during the school year were present in 2nd grade for the school year, the survival ratio would be 100 percent. Birth-to-Kindergarten and Birth-to-First Grade: This ratio indicates the number of children born in the area who attend kindergarten and first grade in the District five and six years later. What is important to note is the trend in survival ratios, not necessarily the actual number. Grades 8 to 9: The higher than usual percentage is a result of school district promotion policies. Often in school districts, students are promoted from 8th to 9th grade and after one year in 9th grade do not have sufficient credits to be classified as a 10th grader and are counted again as 9th graders the following year. There may also be students who are attending private or charter schools or are home schooled through grade 8 and then attend public schools for high school education. The following table illustrates the historical survival ratios in the Worthington Schools over the past seven years by grade level. Survival Ratios - District-wide from to Birth to K K to 1 Birth to 1 1 to 2 2 to 3 3 to 4 4 to 5 5 to 6 6 to 7 7 to 8 8 to 9 9 to to to % % 23.26% % 98.85% % % % % % % % 98.37% % % % 23.16% % % % % % % 99.73% % 99.30% % % % % 22.86% % % % % 99.86% % % % % 98.02% 99.30% % % 22.09% 98.69% % % % % % % % % 97.38% % % % 22.39% 95.67% 99.73% 97.91% 98.18% 98.43% % % % % 98.43% % % % 21.73% 98.70% % 99.33% % % % % % % % % mean simple all years 21.39% % 22.58% % % % % % % % % % 99.10% % std. dev. simple all years 0.89% 0.75% 0.61% 2.82% 1.00% 1.56% 1.45% 1.50% 1.48% 0.98% 1.98% 1.00% 1.69% 1.25% mean simple 5 years 21.27% % 22.45% 99.63% % 99.82% % % % % % % 99.24% % std. dev. simple 5 years 0.94% 0.81% 0.58% 2.96% 0.73% 1.20% 1.60% 1.66% 1.66% 1.10% 2.08% 1.10% 1.85% 1.10% mean simple 3 years 21.38% % 22.07% 97.69% % 99.29% % % % % % % 99.16% % std. dev. simple 3 years 1.27% 0.84% 0.33% 1.74% 0.57% 1.35% 2.11% 2.29% 1.74% 1.04% 0.42% 1.08% 2.24% 1.18% mean simple 2 years 21.48% % 22.06% 97.19% 99.94% 98.62% % 99.52% % % % % % % std. dev. simple 2 years 1.78% 1.18% 0.47% 2.14% 0.28% 1.00% 2.97% 1.55% 1.14% 1.47% 0.56% 1.53% 2.30% 1.60% mean weighted all years 21.65% % 22.13% 98.45% % 99.38% % % % % % % 99.85% % std. dev. weighted all years 1.18% 0.84% 0.50% 2.24% 0.63% 1.19% 1.88% 1.55% 1.29% 1.00% 1.21% 1.07% 1.98% 1.14% mean weighted 5 years 21.76% % 22.04% 98.23% % 99.24% % % % % % % % % std. dev. weighted 5 years 1.23% 0.85% 0.44% 2.02% 0.54% 1.03% 1.97% 1.52% 1.24% 1.02% 0.97% 1.10% 2.00% 1.12% mean weighted 3 years 22.23% % 21.86% 98.17% % 99.14% % % % % % % % % std. dev. weighted 3 years 1.20% 0.80% 0.31% 1.41% 0.27% 0.75% 1.97% 1.21% 0.91% 0.98% 0.39% 1.02% 1.75% 1.05% mean weighted 2 years 22.61% % 21.76% 98.56% % 99.27% % % % % % % % % std. dev. weighted 2 years 0.76% 0.50% 0.20% 0.91% 0.12% 0.43% 1.27% 0.66% 0.49% 0.63% 0.24% 0.65% 0.98% 0.68% PAGE 16

19 HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT As indicated in the table below, over the past seven years, PK-12 student enrollment in the Worthington Schools has increased by 1,180 students (not including unmatched or out-of-district students). Historical Enrollment - District-wide Grade PK K Grand Total 9,096 9,373 9,598 9,831 9,952 10,026 10,276 Source: Worthington Schools Historical Enrollment - District-wide Grade PK K - 5 4,213 4,376 4,484 4,562 4,644 4,568 4, ,079 2,093 2,142 2,161 2,182 2,241 2, ,623 2,689 2,745 2,884 2,881 2,929 2,992 K ,915 9,158 9,371 9,607 9,707 9,738 9,984 Grand Total 9,096 9,373 9,598 9,831 9,952 10,026 10,276 Source: Worthington Schools PAGE 17

20 Historical Enrollment - by Boundary Boundary Trend Bluffsview Boundary Brookside Boundary Colonial Hills Boundary Evening Street Boundary ,001 1,020 1,072 1,064 Granby Boundary Liberty Boundary 1,000 1,017 1, Slate Hill Boundary ,001 1, Wilson Hill Boundary Worthington Estates Boundary 985 1,020 1,103 1,146 1,154 1,157 1,236 Worthington Hills Boundary Worthington Park Boundary Total 9,096 9,373 9,598 9,831 9,952 10,026 10,276 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT - DISTRICT-WIDE PAGE 18

21 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT Cooperative Strategies developed low, moderate, high, and recommended enrollment projections for the Worthington Schools. The moderate enrollment projections are based on a selected average or weighted average of survival ratios (in this case, a 3 year weighted average, by boundary). The low and high enrollment projections are developed using statistical distributional theory, providing the District with a more conservative (low) and more liberal (high) enrollment projection. The recommended enrollment projection is based on a detailed analysis of historical enrollment and resulting survival ratios over the past 10 years. Significant shifts in survival ratio patterns are realized and accounted for in determining projection ratios independently for each grade level. The recommended illustrates the most likely direction of the District based on more recent trends. The range of enrollment projections from low (conservative) to high (liberal) are offered due to the limitations of the cohort survival method in factoring changes to policies, program offerings, and future changes in housing and migration patters. For example, the low enrollment projection might be used if housing declines significantly more than anticipated; the high enrollment projection might be used if housing growth increases at a more rapid rate than seen in recent years. It should be noted that actual live birth counts are available through 2017 and project kindergarten enrollment through To project kindergarten through , an average of the last 3 years of live birth counts was used. Projected PK enrollment does not follow the cohort survival method but is based on the current PK enrollment in each boundary with a District-wide total being 292 students. 16,000 Historical & Projected Enrollment - Worthington School District 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Historical Projected - Recommended Projected - Moderate Projected - Low Projected - High PAGE 19

22 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT RECOMMENDED Based on the recommended projected enrollment, the student enrollment in the Worthington Schools is projected to increase from 10,276 in to 12,099 students in Projected Enrollment - Recommended - District-wide PK K , , Grand Total 10,495 10,776 11,000 11,165 11,376 11,546 11,651 11,750 11,917 12,099 Projected Enrollment - Recommended - District-wide PK K - 5 4,747 4,922 5,077 5,160 5,285 5,261 5,259 5,223 5,222 5, ,437 2,457 2,401 2,358 2,390 2,572 2,705 2,866 2,844 2, ,019 3,105 3,230 3,355 3,409 3,421 3,395 3,369 3,559 3,738 K ,203 10,484 10,708 10,873 11,084 11,254 11,359 11,458 11,625 11,807 Grand Total 10,495 10,776 11,000 11,165 11,376 11,546 11,651 11,750 11,917 12,099 PAGE 20

23 Projected Enrollment - Recommended - by Boundary Boundary Trend Bluffsview Boundary 951 1,010 1,082 1,130 1,202 1,266 1,329 1,384 1,435 1,471 Brookside Boundary Colonial Hills Boundary ,000 1,032 Evening Street Boundary 1,088 1,122 1,150 1,170 1,194 1,225 1,234 1,247 1,275 1,279 Granby Boundary ,008 1,015 1,025 1,018 1,031 1,036 1,050 Liberty Boundary 992 1,005 1, Slate Hill Boundary Wilson Hill Boundary Worthington Estates Boundary 1,302 1,374 1,446 1,491 1,530 1,559 1,595 1,632 1,673 1,708 Worthington Hills Boundary 1,015 1,057 1,101 1,144 1,187 1,218 1,248 1,248 1,295 1,308 Worthington Park Boundary Total 10,495 10,776 11,000 11,165 11,376 11,546 11,651 11,750 11,917 12,099 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT - RECOMMENDED - DISTRICT-WIDE PAGE 21

24 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT MODERATE Based on the moderate projected enrollment, the student enrollment in the Worthington Schools is projected to increase from 10,276 in to 11,953 students in Projected Enrollment - Moderate - District-wide PK K , Grand Total 10,475 10,730 10,936 11,087 11,276 11,442 11,535 11,634 11,777 11,953 Projected Enrollment - Moderate - District-wide PK K - 5 4,733 4,891 5,043 5,124 5,243 5,215 5,217 5,185 5,178 5, ,426 2,445 2,381 2,336 2,358 2,539 2,662 2,824 2,803 2, ,024 3,102 3,220 3,335 3,383 3,396 3,364 3,333 3,504 3,683 K ,183 10,438 10,644 10,795 10,984 11,150 11,243 11,342 11,485 11,661 Grand Total 10,475 10,730 10,936 11,087 11,276 11,442 11,535 11,634 11,777 11,953 PAGE 22

25 Projected Enrollment - Moderate - by Boundary Boundary Trend Bluffsview Boundary 952 1,013 1,087 1,138 1,213 1,277 1,342 1,403 1,455 1,493 Brookside Boundary Colonial Hills Boundary ,001 1,000 1,014 1,010 1,038 Evening Street Boundary 1,069 1,087 1,098 1,105 1,115 1,132 1,130 1,136 1,151 1,147 Granby Boundary ,006 1,011 1,022 1,015 1,023 1,027 1,038 Liberty Boundary 994 1,011 1,015 1,007 1, Slate Hill Boundary Wilson Hill Boundary Worthington Estates Boundary 1,299 1,370 1,439 1,480 1,512 1,539 1,570 1,606 1,640 1,679 Worthington Hills Boundary 1,023 1,072 1,127 1,177 1,230 1,268 1,303 1,308 1,364 1,381 Worthington Park Boundary Total 10,475 10,730 10,936 11,087 11,276 11,442 11,535 11,634 11,777 11,953 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT - MODERATE - DISTRICT-WIDE PAGE 23

26 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT LOW Based on the low projected enrollment, the student enrollment in the Worthington Schools is projected to increase from 10,276 in to 10,602 students in Projected Enrollment - Low- District-wide PK K Grand Total 10,296 10,374 10,414 10,413 10,462 10,501 10,482 10,475 10,524 10,602 Projected Enrollment - Low- District-wide PK K - 5 4,647 4,709 4,778 4,796 4,856 4,803 4,798 4,769 4,766 4, ,386 2,380 2,289 2,217 2,203 2,328 2,378 2,474 2,421 2, ,971 2,993 3,055 3,108 3,111 3,078 3,014 2,940 3,045 3,121 K ,004 10,082 10,122 10,121 10,170 10,209 10,190 10,183 10,232 10,310 Grand Total 10,296 10,374 10,414 10,413 10,462 10,501 10,482 10,475 10,524 10,602 PAGE 24

27 Projected Enrollment - Low - by Boundary Boundary Trend Bluffsview Boundary ,042 1,076 1,130 1,177 1,228 1,269 1,305 1,326 Brookside Boundary Colonial Hills Boundary Evening Street Boundary 1,053 1,054 1,048 1,043 1,042 1,047 1,037 1,035 1,040 1,029 Granby Boundary Liberty Boundary Slate Hill Boundary Wilson Hill Boundary Worthington Estates Boundary 1,270 1,309 1,346 1,356 1,366 1,369 1,379 1,392 1,409 1,429 Worthington Hills Boundary 1,008 1,043 1,083 1,119 1,160 1,187 1,210 1,209 1,253 1,262 Worthington Park Boundary Total 10,296 10,374 10,414 10,413 10,462 10,501 10,482 10,475 10,524 10,602 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT - LOW - DISTRICT-WIDE PAGE 25

28 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT HIGH Based on the high projected enrollment, the student enrollment in the Worthington Schools is projected to increase from 10,276 in to 13,468 students in Projected Enrollment - High - District-wide PK K , ,001 1,040 1, , ,018 1,023 1,062 1, ,056 1,065 1,104 1, ,092 1,097 1, ,133 1, , , ,008 Grand Total 10,653 11,091 11,484 11,793 12,142 12,465 12,676 12,899 13,163 13,468 Projected Enrollment - High - District-wide PK K - 5 4,827 5,077 5,317 5,473 5,656 5,664 5,663 5,622 5,616 5, ,458 2,512 2,480 2,460 2,521 2,769 2,972 3,219 3,226 3, ,076 3,210 3,395 3,568 3,673 3,740 3,749 3,766 4,029 4,333 K ,361 10,799 11,192 11,501 11,850 12,173 12,384 12,607 12,871 13,176 Grand Total 10,653 11,091 11,484 11,793 12,142 12,465 12,676 12,899 13,163 13,468 PAGE 26

29 Projected Enrollment - High - by Boundary Boundary Trend Bluffsview Boundary 964 1,045 1,136 1,207 1,297 1,384 1,468 1,547 1,618 1,674 Brookside Boundary Colonial Hills Boundary ,031 1,096 1,102 1,126 1,125 1,165 Evening Street Boundary 1,088 1,121 1,150 1,168 1,194 1,223 1,234 1,246 1,272 1,277 Granby Boundary 972 1,020 1,043 1,078 1,095 1,117 1,120 1,143 1,158 1,181 Liberty Boundary 1,011 1,044 1,064 1,069 1,082 1,081 1,066 1,079 1,072 1,084 Slate Hill Boundary Wilson Hill Boundary , ,017 1,039 Worthington Estates Boundary 1,330 1,434 1,538 1,609 1,673 1,723 1,778 1,842 1,907 1,970 Worthington Hills Boundary 1,035 1,101 1,171 1,235 1,302 1,353 1,401 1,415 1,484 1,513 Worthington Park Boundary ,011 1,046 Total 10,653 11,091 11,484 11,793 12,142 12,465 12,676 12,899 13,163 13,468 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 PROJECTED ENROLLMENT - HIGH - DISTRICT-WIDE PAGE 27

30 ENROLLMENT BY BOUNDARY The following pages illustrate historical and projected enrollment by boundary. Bluffsview Boundary Brookside Boundary Colonial Hills Boundary Evening Street Boundary Granby Boundary Liberty Boundary Slate Hill Boundary Wilson Hill Boundary Worthington Estates Boundary Worthington Hills Boundary Worthington Park Boundary PAGE 28

31 BLUFFSVIEW BOUNDARY Historical Enrollment - Bluffsview Boundary Grade PK K Grand Total Source: Worthington Schools Historical Enrollment - Bluffsview Boundary Grade PK K K Grand Total Source: Worthington Schools PAGE 29

32 Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Bluffsview Boundary PK K Grand Total 951 1,010 1,082 1,130 1,202 1,266 1,329 1,384 1,435 1,471 Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Bluffsview Boundary PK K K ,061 1,109 1,181 1,245 1,308 1,363 1,414 1,450 Grand Total 951 1,010 1,082 1,130 1,202 1,266 1,329 1,384 1,435 1,471 PAGE 30

33 Projected Enrollment - Moderate - Bluffsview Boundary PK K Grand Total 952 1,013 1,087 1,138 1,213 1,277 1,342 1,403 1,455 1,493 Projected Enrollment - Moderate - Bluffsview Boundary PK K K ,066 1,117 1,192 1,256 1,321 1,382 1,434 1,472 Grand Total 952 1,013 1,087 1,138 1,213 1,277 1,342 1,403 1,455 1,493 PAGE 31

34 Projected Enrollment - Low - Bluffsview Boundary PK K Grand Total ,042 1,076 1,130 1,177 1,228 1,269 1,305 1,326 Projected Enrollment - Low - Bluffsview Boundary PK K K ,021 1,055 1,109 1,156 1,207 1,248 1,284 1,305 Grand Total ,042 1,076 1,130 1,177 1,228 1,269 1,305 1,326 PAGE 32

35 Projected Enrollment - High - Bluffsview Boundary PK K Grand Total 964 1,045 1,136 1,207 1,297 1,384 1,468 1,547 1,618 1,674 Projected Enrollment - High - Bluffsview Boundary PK K K ,024 1,115 1,186 1,276 1,363 1,447 1,526 1,597 1,653 Grand Total 964 1,045 1,136 1,207 1,297 1,384 1,468 1,547 1,618 1,674 PAGE 33

36 BROOKSIDE BOUNDARY Historical Enrollment - Brookside Boundary Grade PK K Grand Total Source: Worthington Schools Historical Enrollment - Brookside Boundary Grade PK K K Grand Total Source: Worthington Schools PAGE 34

37 Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Brookside Boundary PK K Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Brookside Boundary PK K K Grand Total PAGE 35

38 Projected Enrollment - Moderate - Brookside Boundary PK K Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Moderate - Brookside Boundary PK K K Grand Total PAGE 36

39 Projected Enrollment - Low - Brookside Boundary PK K Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Low - Brookside Boundary PK K K Grand Total PAGE 37

40 Projected Enrollment - High - Brookside Boundary PK K Grand Total Projected Enrollment - High - Brookside Boundary PK K K Grand Total PAGE 38

41 COLONIAL HILLS BOUNDARY Historical Enrollment - Colonial Hills Boundary Grade PK K Grand Total Source: Worthington Schools Historical Enrollment - Colonial Hills Boundary Grade PK K K Grand Total Source: Worthington Schools PAGE 39

42 Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Colonial Hills Boundary PK K Grand Total ,000 1,032 Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Colonial Hills Boundary PK K K ,014 Grand Total ,000 1,032 PAGE 40

43 Projected Enrollment - Moderate - Colonial Hills Boundary PK K Grand Total ,001 1,000 1,014 1,010 1,038 Projected Enrollment - Moderate - Colonial Hills Boundary PK K K ,020 Grand Total ,001 1,000 1,014 1,010 1,038 PAGE 41

44 Projected Enrollment - Low - Colonial Hills Boundary PK K Grand Total Projected Enrollment - Low - Colonial Hills Boundary PK K K Grand Total PAGE 42

45 Projected Enrollment - High - Colonial Hills Boundary PK K Grand Total ,031 1,096 1,102 1,126 1,125 1,165 Projected Enrollment - High - Colonial Hills Boundary PK K K ,013 1,078 1,084 1,108 1,107 1,147 Grand Total ,031 1,096 1,102 1,126 1,125 1,165 PAGE 43

46 EVENING STREET BOUNDARY Historical Enrollment - Evening Street Boundary Grade PK K Grand Total ,001 1,020 1,072 1,064 Source: Worthington Schools Historical Enrollment - Evening Street Boundary Grade PK K K ,005 1,058 1,052 Grand Total ,001 1,020 1,072 1,064 Source: Worthington Schools PAGE 44

47 Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Evening Street Boundary PK K Grand Total 1,088 1,122 1,150 1,170 1,194 1,225 1,234 1,247 1,275 1,279 Projected Enrollment - Recommended - Evening Street Boundary PK K K ,076 1,110 1,138 1,158 1,182 1,213 1,222 1,235 1,263 1,267 Grand Total 1,088 1,122 1,150 1,170 1,194 1,225 1,234 1,247 1,275 1,279 PAGE 45

48 Projected Enrollment - Moderate - Evening Street Boundary PK K Grand Total 1,069 1,087 1,098 1,105 1,115 1,132 1,130 1,136 1,151 1,147 Projected Enrollment - Moderate - Evening Street Boundary PK K K ,057 1,075 1,086 1,093 1,103 1,120 1,118 1,124 1,139 1,135 Grand Total 1,069 1,087 1,098 1,105 1,115 1,132 1,130 1,136 1,151 1,147 PAGE 46