Demographic Study. Boyd Independent School District. Fall Learn from Yesterday Understand Today Plan for Tomorrow

Transcription

1 Boyd Independent School District Demographic Study Fall 2017 Learn from Yesterday Understand Today Plan for Tomorrow

2 Economic Conditions DFW Area (September 2017) 2.8% 99,800 new jobs National rate 1.2% Unemployment Rate 32,086 2,651 more than 3Q16 Job Growth U.S. 4.1% Texas 4.0% DFW MSA 3.4% Wise County 3.5% -1.3% Annualized Home Starts Sources: Texas Workforce Commission & Metrostudy 2

3 Local Economic Conditions Decatur Business Park The City of Decatur recently annexed appx. 162 acres of land into the city limits to allow the Decatur EDC to develop a new business park within Decatur ISD The land was purchased in September by the Decatur EDC Negotiations are currently underway with a prospect that will serve as the anchor for the park 3

4 Boyd ISD Home Sales January October 2017 Home Sales by Transaction Type REO Sale 3.33% Regular Resale 84.44% 2017 BISD Home Sales by Type Foreclosure Sale 5.56% New Home Sale 6.67% Boyd ISD has had 90 home sales to date in 2017, and nearly 7% have been of new homes The average sale price for a new home in Boyd ISD in 2017 is $312,946 The average sale price for an existing home in Boyd ISD in 2017 is $245,365 4

5 Texas Enrollment Trends Total State Enrollment 5,600,000 5,400,000 5,200,000 5,075,840 5,359,127 5,232,065 5,299,587 5,000,000 4,933,617 5,151,925 4,998,579 4,800,000 4,749,571 4,592,849 4,847,844 4,600,000 4,671,493 4,519,164 4,400, /17 State Enrollment Total Enrollment 5,359,127 Total Growth 59,540 4,200,000 4,000, , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Enrollment Change 120,145 98,273 85,773 78,644 80,140 77,261 73,685 78,078 76,085 64,962 67,522 59,540 5

6 Region 10 & 11 Enrollment Trends Boyd ISD added 123 students in the last 5 years, a growth rate of 11.9% 6

7 District Housing Overview Boyd ISD has nearly 80 lots available to build on Active Subdivisions Future Subdivisions Nearly 700 future homes are planned within BISD 7

8 Residential Activity Highland Oaks Highland Oaks Appx. 437 total lots Appx. 375 future lots Appx. 42 vacant developed lots Appx. 20 homes occupied Phases 2 (125 lots) and 3 (250 lots) will be developed as market demand necessitates No development plans submitted at this time Lots for individual sale 4 homes sold in homes sold to date in 2017 $400K+ Current student yield:

9 Residential Activity Saddlehorn Ranch Saddlehorn Ranch 50 total lots 20 future lots 9 vacant developed lots 21 homes occupied Phases 1 and 2 delivered Phase 3 (20 lots) no plans for development at this time Lots for individual sale 2 new homes sold in 2016 $350K - $625K Current student yield:

10 Residential Activity Meadow Park Meadow Park Appx. 77 total lots Appx. 17 vacant developed lots Appx. 60 homes occupied Lots for individual sale 3 new homes sold in new home sold to date in 2017 $145K - $338K Current student yield:

11 Future Residential Activity Lucky Ridge Lucky Ridge 98 total lots Phase 1 (34 lots) in Springtown ISD groundwork is underway, homes starting spring 2018 Phase 2 (64 lots) in Boyd ISD groundwork anticipated to start in 2018 Lots for individual sale Lot prices $42K - $48K Paradise ISD Springtown ISD 11

12 Future Residential Activity Parr Addition Parr Addition 38 total future lots possible Developer is currently considering options for development No plans have been submitted at this time Doug Parr Custom Homes 12

13 Future Residential Activity Flanigan Addition Flanigan Addition Appx. 5 acres 22 total future lots Currently in pre-development, working with city engineers Developer anticipates home construction to start by end

14 Future Residential Activity Flanigan Tract Flanigan Tract Appx. 80 Acres Developer is currently considering options for purchase of this land for development No plans for development at this time 14

15 Student Density Map Boyd ISD has 178 students residing outside the district This represents approximately 13% of the total student body 15

16 TEA Transfer Report Transfers In From 2011/ / / / / /17 5 Yr Change Azle ISD Bridgeport ISD Decatur ISD Northwest ISD Paradise ISD Springtown ISD Total Transfers In* Transfers Out To 2011/ / / / / /17 5 Yr Change Azle ISD Decatur ISD Paradise ISD Total Transfers Out* *Transfers include additional districts per TEA rounding rules 16

17 Ten Year Forecast By Grade Level Year (OCT) EE PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Total Growth Total % 2013/ , / , % 2015/ , % 2016/ , % 2017/ , % 2018/ , % 2019/ , % 2020/ , % 2021/ , % 2022/ , % 2023/ , % 2024/ , % 2025/ , % 2026/ , % 2027/ , % *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year Boyd ISD could enroll more than 1,500 students by year growth = 252 students 2022/23 enrollment = 1, year growth = 409 students 2027/28 enrollment = 1,744 17

18 Ten Year Forecast By Campus HISTORY Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS CAMPUS 2016/ / / / / / / / / / / /28 BOYD ELEMENTARY SCHOOL ELEMENTARY TOTALS Elementary Absolute Change Elementary Percent Change 7.85% 2.82% 1.83% 1.35% -1.33% -0.45% 2.25% 1.54% 4.34% 1.25% 0.62% 2.65% BOYD INTERMEDIATE SCHOOL INTERMEDIATE TOTALS Intermediate Absolute Change Intermediate Percent Change 8.88% 0.35% 5.65% 2.68% 4.23% 1.25% 1.85% -0.30% -0.91% 0.92% 4.56% 3.49% BOYD JUNIOR HIGH JUNIOR HIGHT TOTALS Junior High Absolute Change Junior High Percent Change 10.73% 8.67% 7.04% -0.44% 1.76% 4.76% 3.72% 0.80% 4.35% 0.00% 0.38% -3.40% BOYD HIGH SCHOOL HIGH SCHOOL TOTALS High School Absolute Change High School Percent Change -1.45% 17.60% 2.99% 12.35% 8.62% 4.96% 4.35% 1.81% 3.20% 3.97% 3.48% 0.80% DISTRICT TOTALS 1,245 1,335 1,386 1,450 1,501 1,539 1,587 1,605 1,651 1,683 1,723 1,744 District Absolute Change District Percent Change 5.78% 7.23% 3.82% 4.62% 3.52% 2.53% 3.12% 1.13% 2.87% 1.94% 2.38% 1.22% Boyd Elementary could reach over 500 students by 2027 Boyd Intermediate could enroll over 300 students in 2019 Boyd Junior High may reach over 250 students by 2022 Boyd High School could enroll over 600 students by

19 Ten Year Forecast (new housing impact) By Grade Level Year (OCT) EE PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Total Growth Total % 2013/ , / , % 2015/ , % 2016/ , % 2017/ , % 2018/ , % 2019/ , % 2020/ , % 2021/ , % 2022/ , % 2023/ , % 2024/ , % 2025/ , % 2026/ , % 2027/ , % *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year Boyd ISD could enroll more than 1,500 students by year growth = 295 students 2022/23 enrollment = 1, year growth = 556 students 2027/28 enrollment = 1,891 19

20 Ten Year Forecast (new housing impact) By Campus HISTORY Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS CAMPUS 2016/ / / / / / / / / / / /28 BOYD ELEMENTARY SCHOOL ELEMENTARY TOTALS Elementary Absolute Change Elementary Percent Change 7.85% 2.82% 1.83% 1.35% -0.22% 2.44% 3.25% 2.94% 4.89% 2.72% 1.89% 2.78% BOYD INTERMEDIATE SCHOOL INTERMEDIATE TOTALS Intermediate Absolute Change Intermediate Percent Change 8.88% 0.35% 5.65% 2.68% 6.19% 1.23% 3.03% 0.88% 2.92% 3.12% 4.95% 4.97% BOYD JUNIOR HIGH JUNIOR HIGHT TOTALS Junior High Absolute Change Junior High Percent Change 10.73% 8.67% 7.04% -0.44% 1.76% 4.76% 4.96% 3.94% 3.79% -1.46% 5.19% 1.41% BOYD HIGH SCHOOL HIGH SCHOOL TOTALS High School Absolute Change High School Percent Change -1.45% 17.60% 2.99% 12.35% 8.19% 6.18% 4.88% 2.68% 2.96% 4.91% 3.23% 1.25% DISTRICT TOTALS 1,245 1,335 1,386 1,450 1,510 1,567 1,630 1,672 1,733 1,783 1,845 1,891 District Absolute Change District Percent Change 5.78% 7.23% 3.82% 4.62% 4.14% 3.77% 4.02% 2.58% 3.65% 2.89% 3.48% 2.49% Boyd Elementary could reach over 500 students by 2024 Boyd Intermediate could enroll over 300 students in 2019 Boyd Junior High may reach over 250 students by 2022 Boyd High School could enroll over 600 students by

21 Summary Wise County unemployment is currently below 4% The average new home price in Boyd ISD is $312,946 The average price for an existing home in BISD is $245,365 Boyd ISD has roughly 450 future lots planned Roughly 13% of Boyd ISD students reside outside the district Boyd ISD can expect an enrollment growth of roughly 250 students in the next 5 years 2022/23 enrollment projection = 1,587. Boyd ISD is projected to have nearly 1,750 students for the 2027/28 school year. 21