Liberty Hill ISD. District Housing Activity Report 3rd Quarter, 2012
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1 Liberty Hill ISD District Housing Activity Report 3rd Quarter, 2012
2 GREATER AUSTIN NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION STARTS, CLOSINGS, & LOT DELIVERIES Year-Over-Year Change Annual Starts +28% Annual Closings +21% Annual Units Annual Starts: 8,004 Annual Closings: 7,
3 GREATER AUSTIN CURRENT EMPLOYMENT SURVEY (CES) 12 Annual Change = +26, Unemployment Rates Sept Austin: 5.3% Texas: 6.3% US: 7.6% 3
4 LIBERTY HILL ISD NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY Annual Change 90 Starts: +22% (+16 units) 77 Closings: +0% (+0 units) Starts 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Total Closings 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Total starts is highest annual start rate w/out stimulus since 2Q
5 GREATER AUSTIN SCHOOL DISTRICT RANKINGS BY NEW HOME CLOSINGS (4Q11-3Q12) Rank District Leander Round Rock Austin Hays Consolidated Pflugerville Georgetown Lake Travis Manor Dripping Springs Hutto Del Valle San Marcos Con. Jarrell Bastrop Liberty Hill Elgin Eanes Lago Vista Wimberly Taylor Total Closings 4Q11-3Q12 1,438 1,148 1, LHISD currently ranks 15th in total new home closings among Greater Austin school districts 5
6 LIBERTY HILL ISD TOP SELLING SUBDIVISIONS Total Occupied Homes Annual Closings 4Q11-3Q12 1. Rancho Sienna Stonewall Ranch 3. Cierra Vista 4. Gabriels Overlook 5. Quarry Lake Estates 4 6. Cimarron Hills 7. Stage Coach Hill 8. Beltorre Total Lots Left 1 83 * Rancho Sienna moves into 1st place for first time 6
7 LIBERTY HILL ISD NEW HOME ACTIVITY BY PRICE RANGE 3Q12 Median Price = $258,206 Median Price One Year Ago = $231,852 7
8 LIBERTY HILL ISD HISTORICAL LOT INVENTORY 818 fully developed vacant lots on the ground Ø Although supply is still elevated, month supply reaches lowest point in 4 years 11,556 total potential residential lots planned for the district 8
9 LIBERTY HILL ISD DISTRICT HOUSING ACTIVITY REPORT AERIAL PHOTOS SEPT. 25,
10 RANCHO SIENNA 10
11 SANTA RITA WEST (MIDDLE BROOK) 11
12 STONEWALL RANCH 12
13 CIERRA VISTA/STAGE COACH HILL 13
14 NEW HIGH SCHOOL CONSTRUCTION 14
15 NEW HIGH SCHOOL CONSTRUCTION 15
16 REZONED LAND TO DUPLEX/TH 16
17 LIBERTY HILL ISD HOUSING ACTIVITY SUMMARY 3Q12 31 starts and 24 closings in 3rd quarter (second consecutive qtr. with 31 starts) Annual starts pace increases 22% to 90 units (compared to 74 a year ago) Ø Most annual starts w/out stimulus in 4 years Closings climb back to last year s level at 77 annual units Rancho Sienna surpasses Stonewall Ranch as top producing subdivision with 24 annual closings (Stonewall Ranch = 23 annual closings) District s median new home price continues to increase now up to $258, new homes under construction (33 in 2Q12) 11,556 total potential lots remaining in the district Ø Ø Ø 818 are fully developed vacant lots 241 approved future lots 10,497 preliminary lots planned No new residential lot development at this time 128 resales year-to-date (9/30); up 35% compared to first 9 mos. of 2011 Ø 141 total resales over last 12 months (+16.5% vs. same period last year) Rate of foreclosure forced sales is declining; down to 13 total for past 12 months Property at 1375 Loop 332 rezoned to residential duplex/townhome in July 17
18 TOTAL ENROLLMENT HISTORY 18
19 ENROLLMENT HISTORY BY ATTENDANCE LEVEL 19
20 GRADE LEVEL ENROLLMENT HISTORY ELEMENTARY INTERMEDIATE JUNIOR HIGH HIGH Year (Fall) PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th District Total Annual Growth Percent Change , , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % 20
21 NEW STUDENT YIELDS 7-Year Avg. = Year Avg. = 1.11 Last Year =
22 GRADE LEVEL FORECAST (FALL FALL 2017) Cohort Survival Based Projections ELEMENTARY INTERMEDIATE JUNIOR HIGH HIGH Year (Fall) PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th District Total Annual Growth Percent Change , % 2013P , % 2014P , % 2015P , % 2016P , % 2017P , % Elementary PK Elementary K-4 Intermediate 5-6 Junior High 7-8 High 9-12 District FALL Total Enrollment Annual Growth Percent Change Total Enrollment Annual Growth Percent Change Total Enrollment Annual Growth Percent Change Total Enrollment Annual Growth Percent Change Total Enrollment Annual Growth Percent Change Total Enrollment PK P 2014P 2015P 2016P 2017P % -0.2% 3.4% 1.5% 6.8% 6.6% ,013 1,016 1,060 1, % 3.6% 1.5% 0.4% 4.3% 2.0% % -1.9% 8.6% 8.7% -3.1% -1.1% % 2.4% -0.8% -1.9% 8.7% 8.7% ,012 1,064 1,080 1, % 9.8% 5.9% 5.2% 1.5% 0.5% 2,851 2,974 3,082 3,170 3,263 3, Annual Growth Percent Change % 4.3% 3.6% 2.9% 2.9% 2.3%
23 For more information contact: Brent Alexander Director of Demographic Research x N. Dallas Parkway Suite 1200 Dallas, Texas Disclaimer - Although School District Strategies (SDS) has used commercially reasonable efforts to obtain information from sources in a manner that SDS believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and such information may be incomplete, condensed or interpolated. Information presented in this report represents our estimates as of the date of the publication and is subject to change without notice. This report is not intended as a recommendation or endorsement for any action taken by others. In no event will School District Strategies be liable for direct, indirect, incidental or consequential lost profits, lost savings, damages or other liabilities resulting from any information provided herein. Copyright 2012 School District Strategies. 23
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