BLACK KNIGHT HPI REPORT
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- Dennis McGee
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2 CONTENTS 1 OVERVIEW 2 NATIONAL OVERVIEW 3 LARGEST STATES AND METROS 4 MARCH S BIGGEST MOVERS 5 20 LARGEST STATES 6 40 LARGEST METROS 7 ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
3 OVERVIEW Each month, the Data & Analytics division of Black Knight Financial Services releases its Home Price Index (HPI) report. This month we look at data on March 2015 residential real estate transactions. The Black Knight HPI combines the company s extensive property and loan-level databases to produce a repeat sales analysis of home prices as of their transaction dates every month for each of more than 18,000 U.S. ZIP codes. The Black Knight HPI represents the price of non-distressed sales by taking into account price discounts for REO and short sales. Some highlights from March s data: U.S. home prices were up 1.2 percent for the month, rising 4.8 percent on a year-overyear basis March saw the largest monthly gain in national home prices since June 2013 At $245K, the national level HPI is now just 8.4 percent off its June 2006 peak of $268K Year-to-date (Q1 2015) home price appreciation rose at a 33 percent greater rate than the same period in 2014 In another sign of March s strong performance, even the 10 worst performing states and metro areas all saw flat to positive movement Metro areas in the Bay Area and Colorado continue to outperform the rest of the nation Of the nation s 40 largest metros, nine hit new peaks again in March Austin, TX; Columbus, OH; Dallas, TX; Denver, CO; Honolulu, HI; Houston, TX; Nashville, TN; San Antonio, TX; and San Jose, CA Colorado once again led the 20 largest states with 10 percent year-over-year growth, followed by Texas and New York (7.7 and 7.4 percent, respectively) To download high-resolution versions of the images and charts contained in this report, please click here.
4 NATIONAL OVERVIEW Below, we look at national level home price trends. All dollar figures shown are in thousands. Percentages are relative changes of HPI from dates shown to March UNITED STATES Local : JUNE 2006 $268,000 $245K June UNITED STATES March 2015 HPI current Peak Year Start of yr Month March 2015 HPI $245 last month 1.2 US Jun 06 $ $ $ $ $245
5 LARGEST STATES AND METROS Here we look at monthly HPI changes for each of the five largest states and metro areas. Percentages are relative changes of HPI from February 2015 to March HPI CHANGES FR0M LAST MONTH Largest States Largest Metros California 1.3 Chic, IL 1.5 Florida Dallas, TX 1.2 New Jersey 0.4 Los Angeles, CA 0.9 New York 1.2 New York, NY 0.8 Texas 1.1 Washington, DC 1.5 CHICAGO, IL $221K Local : JUNE 2007 $282,000 June DALLAS, TX $207K Local : $207, March 2015
6 LARGEST STATES AND METROS BLACK KNIGHT HPI As of: March 2015 LOS ANGELES, CA $550K NEW YORK, NY $432K $413K Local : MAY 2006 $626, May Local : JULY 2006 $476, July WASHINGTON, D.C. $388K Local : MAY 2006 $453,000 May
7 MARCH S BIGGEST MOVERS Below, we examine the top and bottom 10 largest monthly HPI changes among all U.S. states and metropolitan areas. Percentages are relative changes of HPI from February 2015 to March BIGGEST MOVERS: STATES Top 10 Bottom 10 Colorado 1.9 Tennessee 0.9 Dist. of Columbia 1.9 Massachusetts 0.9 Washington 1.6 Hawaii 0.8 Illinois 1.5 Nevada 0.8 Michigan 1.5 Vermont 0.7 Florida Pennsylvania 0.6 Maryland Arizona 0.5 Nebraska Connecticut 0.5 Virginia 1.3 New Jersey 0.4 Georgia 1.3 Montana 0.3 BIGGEST MOVERS: METROS Top 10 Bottom 10 San Jose, CA 2.7 Phoenix, AZ 0.5 San Francisco, CA 2.4 Springfield, MA 0.5 Boulder, CO 2.4 Barnstable, MA 0.4 Denver, CO 2.2 Tucson, AZ 0.4 Naples, FL 1.8 Hartford, CT 0.4 Ocala, FL 1.8 Toledo, OH 0.3 Palm Bay, FL 1.8 Norwich, CT 0.3 Seattle, WA 1.8 Worcester, MA 0.3 Greeley, CO 1.8 Atlantic City, NJ 0.1 Port St. Lucie, FL 1.8 New Haven, CT
8 20 LARGEST STATES Below we present an expanded look at details for the largest 20 states, listed in alphabetical order. Percentages are relative changes of HPI from dates shown to March Each state s numerical ranking by the extent of March s percentage change in HPI follows the state name. HPI HPI current Peak Peak Year Start of yr Month March 2015 Arizona 18 May 06 $ $ $ $212 California 10 May 06 $ $ $ $ $431 Colorado 1 Mar 15 $289 $263 1 $ $ $289 Connecticut 19 Jul 06 $ $ $ $ $253 Florida 5 Apr 06 $ $ $ $205 $208 Georgia 8 Jun 07 $204 1 $ $ $ $180 Illinois 3 Jul 06 $ $ $ $212 Mass. 16 Aug 05 $ $ $ $ $340 Maryland 6 Jun 07 $ $284 $ $284 $288 Michigan 4 Jul 05 $ $ $ $ $148 Minnesota 12 May 06 $ $ $ $ $226 North Carolina 14 Jun 07 $ $ $186 $ $189 New Jersey 20 Jun 06 $ $ $ $ $307 New York 11 Mar 15 $347 $ $ $ $347 Ohio 9 Jun 06 $ $ $142 $ $144 Pennsylvania 17 Jul 07 $ $211 Tennessee 15 Jun 07 $ $ $169 $ $172 Texas 13 Mar 15 $206 $ $ $ $206 Virginia 7 Jun 06 $ $ $ $ $317 Washington 2 Jun 07 $ $ $ $ $294
9 40 LARGEST METROS Below we present an expanded look at details for the nation s 40 largest metropolitan areas covered by Black Knight data, listed in alphabetical order. Percentages are relative changes of HPI from dates shown to March Each state s numerical ranking by the extent of March s percentage change in HPI follows the state name. HPI HPI current Peak Peak Year Start of of yr yr Month March 2015 Atlanta, GA 11 Jun 07 $ $ $ $184 $186 Austin, TX 16 Mar 15 $272 $ $ $ $272 Baltimore, MD 13 Jun 07 $ $ $271 $272 $275 Boston, MA 20 Aug 05 $ $ $ $ $391 Bridgeport, CT 31 Jul 06 $ $ $ $ $396 Charlotte, NC 17 Aug 07 $ $ $ $ $196 Chic, IL 8 Aug 06 $ $ $ $ $221 Cincinnati, OH 12 Jun 06 $ $ $ $160 $162 Cleveland, OH 15 Jun 06 $ $ $ $ $135 Columbus, OH 14 Mar 15 $179 $ $ $176 $179 Dallas, TX 24 Mar 15 $207 $ $ $ $207 Denver, CO 3 Mar 15 $308 $ $ $ $308 Detroit, MI 7 Jul 05 $ $ $ $ $148 Honolulu, HI 36 Mar 15 $521 $ $ $ $521 Houston, TX 30 Mar 15 $211 $ $ $211 Jacksonville, FL 22 Jun 06 $ $ $ $ $176 Kansas City, MO 18 Jun 07 $ $ $ $ $168 Las Vegas, NV 38 May 06 $ $ $ $ $199 Los Angeles, CA 32 May 06 $ $ $ $ $550 Miami, FL 19 May 06 $ $ $ $ $260
10 40 LARGEST METROS HPI HPI current Peak Peak Year Start of yr Month March 2015 Minneapolis, MN 25 May 06 $ $ $229 $ $232 Nashville, TN 28 Mar 15 $ $ $ New York, NY 35 Jul 06 $ $ $ $ $432 Orlando, FL 26 Jun 06 $ $ $ $ $185 Oxnard, CA 21 Apr 06 $ $ $ $ $506 Philadelphia, PA 39 Jul 07 $ $ $ $ $246 Phoenix, AZ 40 May 06 $ $ $ $ $221 Portland, OR 10 Jul 07 $ $ $ $297 $301 Providence, RI 33 Jun 06 $ $ $ $ $246 Riverside, CA 37 Jun 06 $ $ $ $ $291 Sacramento, CA 6 Sep 05 $ $ $ $ $319 Salt Lake City, UT 23 Jul 07 $ $ $ $ $262 San Antonio, TX 29 Mar 15 $187 $ $ $ $187 San Diego, CA 34 Aug 05 $ $ $ $ $486 San Francisco, CA 2 Mar 15 $687 $ $ $ $687 San Jose, CA 1 Mar 15 $829 $ $ $ $829 Seattle, WA 4 Jun 07 $ $ $ $ $351 St. Louis, MO 27 Jun 07 $ $ $ $ $182 Tampa, FL 5 May 06 $ $ $178 $ $181 Washington, DC 9 May 06 $ $ $ $ $388
11 ADDITIONAL INFORMATION About the Black Knight HPI: The Black Knight HPI is one of the most complete and accurate home price sources available. It summarizes sales concluded during each month using a repeat sales analysis of home prices as of their transaction dates. Each month for each of more than 18,000 U.S. ZIP codes, the Black Knight HPI reports five price levels (quintiles) along with REO discount rates for each ZIP code, which are used in the HPI calculations to correct for the impact on estimates of open-market prices that REO sale prices would have. This level of detail is provided for three property groupings in every ZIP code: i) all residential properties, ii) condominiums, and iii) single-family housing. Home prices are available with or without seasonal adjustments. The Black Knight HPI provides aggregates of all these values for larger geographies than ZIP codes: cities, counties, states, the nation and statistical areas defined by the White House Office of Management and Budget. The five historical paths of price levels can be easily used to find price paths of intermediate prices. By combining property and loan data in its repeat sales analysis, the Black Knight HPI covers about 89 percent of single-family residential properties in the U.S. The innovative approach used to maximize geographical resolution enables the Black Knight HPI to meaningfully cover about 98 percent of these properties at the ZIP-code level. In this report, the value and appreciation of the HPI reported is calculated assuming the entire stock of properties within each geography. The Black Knight HPI provides the financial industry with the most accurate valuations available from an HPI accuracies competitive with AVMs in out-of-sample tests. The Black Knight HPI is also the most accurately timed home-price information available detecting market changes sooner than other HPIs. For more information about gaining access to Black Knight s full HPI dataset for your business, please send an to dataanalyticsinfo@bkfs.com.
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