Prepared: November 2011 (revised)

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2 Page Introduction 3 Graph: Enrollment Summary 4 Classroom Capacities and Enrollments 5 Enrollment History and Forecast Summary 6 Graph: Five Year Enrollment Forecast 7 Graph: Census vs. Enrollment 8 Summary (by Grade Level) 9 History and Projection: Kindergarten 10 History and Projection: Elementary Schools 11 History and Projection: Middle Schools 14 History and Projection: High Schools 15 Prepared: November 2011 (revised)

3 K-12 Enrollment Enrollment history is kept by grade, by school, for the past ten years. Enrollment projections were done this year by DeJong-Healy (in November 2011). The numbers contained in this book reflect the most likely enrollment projections. The full report can be viewed on our website: It is important to remember that predicting the enrollment for the entire school district can be done to a much greater level of confidence than can a specific grade within a specific school. It is also important to remember that projections beyond two or three years are rough estimates only, as many factors and influences can occur unexpectedly within that period of time. For this reason, updated projections are supplied on an annual basis, based upon the official September 30th enrollment. Determining Design and Program Capacity The Effective Capacity represents the "realistic and practical" number of students that the school facility can house as calculated by Moseley Architects in December 2004, and updated by WJCC in Prior to any discussions of enrollments and available capacity, it is necessary to provide a definition of the terms used. Please note that WJCC initiated a study of middle school building use and capacity, which was completed by RRMM Architects in November Elementary school capacities were determined as follows: The total number of regular classrooms (not counting mobile/temporary classrooms, and auxiliary buildings, if applicable), minus rooms for art, music, computer lab, and special education programs (except for self-contained special education classrooms), then factor the kindergarten, first, and second grade classrooms at the average 19 student class size, the third, fourth, and fifth grade classrooms at the average 23 student class size, and the self-contained special education classrooms at the average 10 student class size to yield the effective capacity for each facility. Middle school design capacities were determined as follows: Take the total number of core classrooms (not counting mobile/temporary classrooms, and counting auxiliary buildings, if applicable), minus rooms for art, music, computer lab, special education programs (except for self-contained special education classrooms), and exploratory/elective classrooms such as technology, and then factor these classrooms at the average 23 student class size and the self-contained special education classrooms at the average 8 student class size to yield the effective capacity for each facility. High school capacities were determined as follows: Take the total number of classrooms and teaching spaces (not counting mobile/temporary classrooms, and counting auxiliary buildings, if applicable), minus rooms for resource computer labs, special education programs (except for self-contained special education classrooms) and then factor these classrooms at the average 21.4 student class size and the self-contained special education classrooms at the average 10 student class size to yield the effective capacity for each facility. The teaching spaces included at the high school level for calculating effective capacity includes such spaces as the gymnasium for physical education classes, art, music, and other elective classrooms - since these spaces are typically scheduled for students at any given period. 3

4 12,000 10,000 8,553 8,959 9,402 Williamsburg-James City County Public Schools ENROLLMENT SUMMARY 9,820 10,105 10,137 10,248 10,503 10,549 10,671 10,795 10,992 11,239 11,563 11,830 ENROLLMENT 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 ACTUAL ENROLLMENT PROJECTED - ACTUAL as of September 30th PROJECTED as of Sep 30th High 2,674 2,809 2,987 3,148 3,254 3,366 3,397 3,478 3,474 3,399 3,452 3,489 3,635 3,753 3,880 Middle 2,087 2,206 2,245 2,335 2,381 2,327 2,283 2,350 2,454 2,560 2,552 2,622 2,568 2,651 2,706 Elementary 3,792 3,944 4,170 4,337 4,470 4,444 4,568 4,675 4,621 4,712 4,791 4,881 5,036 5,159 5,244 4

5 Sep Effective Williamsburg-James City County Public Schools K-12 CLASSROOM CAPACITIES and ENROLLMENTS as of September 30th ENROLLMENT (Historical) as of September 30th PROJECTED Cost Center/School Capacity (1) 21-Clara Byrd Baker Rawls Byrd DJ Montague Norge Matthew Whaley James River Stonehouse Matoaka Blayton Elementary TOTAL 5,470 3,792 3,944 4,170 4,337 4,470 4,444 4,568 4,675 4,621 4,712 4,791 4,881 5,036 5,159 5,244 Available Capacity 1, Berkeley James Blair Toano Hornsby Middle TOTAL 2,571 2,087 2,206 2,245 2,335 2,381 2,327 2,283 2,350 2,454 2,560 2,552 2,622 2,568 2,651 2,706 Available Capacity (2) (51) 3 (80) (135) 36-Lafayette 1,314 1,418 1,478 1,536 1,624 1,663 1,266 1,099 1,114 1,108 1,077 1,093 1,104 1,149 1,189 1, Jamestown 1,208 1,256 1,331 1,451 1,524 1,591 1,344 1,261 1,232 1,217 1,186 1,205 1,219 1,271 1,311 1, Warhill 1, ,037 1,132 1,149 1,136 1,154 1,166 1,215 1,253 1,297 High TOTAL 3,963 2,674 2,809 2,987 3,148 3,254 3,366 3,397 3,478 3,474 3,399 3,452 3,489 3,635 3,753 3,880 Available Capacity TOTALS 12,004 8,553 8,959 9,402 9,820 10,105 10,137 10,248 10,503 10,549 10,671 10,795 10,992 11,239 11,563 11,830 Increase % Increase 4.7% 4.9% 4.4% 2.9% 0.3% 1.1% 2.5% 0.4% 1.2% 1.2% 1.8% 2.2% 2.9% 2.3% Projection Source: DeJong/Healy, November 2011 (1) The Effective Capacity represents the "realistic and practical" number of students that the school facility can house as calculated by Moseley Architects in December Effective capacity was revised in 2006 and in (2) Middle school capacity totals were revised in November 2011 based on RRMM study. Note: The "boxed" areas in the PROJECTED columns indicate when projected enrollment will exceed the school's effective capacity. 5

6 ENROLLMENT HISTORY and FORECAST SUMMARY ACTUAL as of September 30th PROJECTED 21-Baker Byrd DJ Montague Norge Matthew Whaley James River Stonehouse Matoaka Blayton Total: Elementary 3,792 3,944 4,170 4,337 4,470 4,444 4,568 4,675 4,621 4,712 4,791 4,881 5,036 5,159 5,244 Change (26) (54) Berkeley James Blair Toano Hornsby Total: Middle 2,087 2,206 2,245 2,335 2,381 2,327 2,283 2,350 2,454 2,560 2,552 2,622 2,568 2,651 2,706 Change (54) (44) (8) 70 (54) Lafayette 1,418 1,478 1,536 1,624 1,663 1,266 1,099 1,114 1,108 1,077 1,093 1,104 1,149 1,189 1, Jamestown 1,256 1,331 1,451 1,524 1,591 1,344 1,261 1,232 1,217 1,186 1,205 1,219 1,271 1,311 1, Warhill ,037 1,132 1,149 1,136 1,154 1,166 1,215 1,253 1,297 Total: High 2,674 2,809 2,987 3,148 3,254 3,366 3,397 3,478 3,474 3,399 3,452 3,489 3,635 3,753 3,880 Change (4) (75) Grand Total 8,553 8,959 9,402 9,820 10,105 10,137 10,248 10,503 10,549 10,671 10,795 10,992 11,239 11,563 11,830 Total Change Total Change (%) 1.7% 4.7% 4.9% 4.4% 2.9% 0.3% 1.1% 2.5% 0.4% 1.2% 1.2% 1.8% 2.2% 2.9% 2.3% 6

7 13,000 Williamsburg-James City County Public Schools FIVE-YEAR ENROLLMENT FORECAST as of September 30th of each year 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,553 8,959 9,402 9,820 10,105 10,137 10,248 10,503 10,549 10,671 10,795 10,992 11,239 11,563 11,830 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 HISTORY PROJECTIONS 1,000 7

8 CENSUS vs. ENROLLMENT 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 Triennial Census: 9,559 7,921 Triennial Census: 10,996 8,155 8,191 8,407 8,553 8,959 Triennial Census: 10,976 9,402 9,820 Triennial Census: 11,971 Triennial Census: 13,160 10,105 10,137 10,248 10,503 10,549 10,671 4,000 2,000 ENROLLMENT HISTORY Enrollment Census Triennial School Census counts were last updated in August A triennial census was not conducted in Virginia in

9 SUMMARY by GRADE LEVEL ACTUAL as of September 30th PROJECTED as of Sep 30th Elementary Total 3,792 3,944 4,170 4,337 4,470 4,444 4,568 4,675 4,621 4,712 4,791 4,881 5,036 5,159 5,244 K Middle Total High Total 2,087 2,206 2,245 2,335 2,381 2,327 2,283 2,350 2,454 2,560 2,552 2,622 2,568 2,651 2, ,674 2,809 2,987 3,148 3,254 3,366 3,397 3,478 3,474 3,399 3,452 3,489 3,635 3,753 3, ,066 1,020 1, ,049 1, Division Total 8,553 8,959 9,402 9,820 10,105 10,137 10,248 10,503 10,549 10,671 10,795 10,992 11,239 11,563 11,830 Annual Change % 4.7% 4.9% 4.4% 2.9% 0.3% 1.1% 2.5% 0.4% 1.2% 1.2% 1.8% 2.2% 2.9% 2.3% 9

10 KINDERGARTEN: Enrollment History and Projection ACTUAL as of September 30th PROJECTIONS as of Sep 30th Cost Center/School 21-CB Baker Rawls Byrd DJ Montague Norge Matthew Whaley James River Stonehouse Matoaka Blayton Total Annual Change % 5.2% 15.2% 1.0% 3.8% -5.8% 1.9% 4.3% -6.8% 16.9% 0.0% -4.4% 7.9% -0.2% -1.7% LIVE BIRTHS (5 Years Prior)

11 ELEMENTARY: Enrollment History and Projection as of September 30th of each year Baker K Byrd K DJ Montague K

12 ELEMENTARY: Enrollment History and Projection as of September 30th of each year Norge K Whaley K James River K

13 ELEMENTARY: Enrollment History and Projection as of September 30th of each year Stonehouse K Matoaka K Blayton K Total-Elem 3,792 3,944 4,170 4,337 4,470 4,444 4,568 4,675 4,621 4,712 4,791 4,881 5,036 5,159 5,244 K Annual Change

14 MIDDLE SCHOOL: Enrollment History and Projection as of September 30th of each year Berkeley James Blair Toano Hornsby Total-Middle 2,087 2,206 2,245 2,335 2,381 2,327 2,283 2,350 2,454 2,560 2,552 2,622 2,568 2,651 2, Annual Change

15 HIGH SCHOOL: Enrollment History and Projection as of September 30th of each year Lafayette 1,418 1,478 1,536 1,624 1,663 1,266 1,099 1,114 1,108 1,077 1,093 1,104 1,149 1,189 1, Jamestown 1,256 1,331 1,451 1,524 1,591 1,344 1,261 1,232 1,217 1,186 1,205 1,219 1,271 1,311 1, Warhill ,037 1,132 1,149 1,136 1,154 1,166 1,215 1,253 1, Total 2,674 2,809 2,987 3,148 3,254 3,366 3,397 3,478 3,474 3,399 3,452 3,489 3,635 3,753 3, ,066 1,020 1, ,049 1, Annual Change

16 Document Prepared by the Finance Department November 2011 (revised)