WESTON, CONNECTICUT Demography and Enrollment Projections
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1 WESTON, CONNECTICUT Demography and Enrollment Projections September 18, 2012
2 NESDEC PROJECT TEAM Donald G. Kennedy, Ed.D., Enrollment Projections John H. Kennedy, M.A., Additional Data Arthur L. Bettencourt, Ed.D., Executive Director
3 Weston, CT Historical Enrollment PK-12,
4 WESTON HIGH SCHOOL ENROLLMENT HISTORY OF CLASS OF Weston Births = 119 Year Grade Weston Public Schools Non-Public (may be incomplete) Preschool Kindergarten Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade Grade voc Grade voc Grade voc Grade voc n/a
5 Weston, CT Historical Enrollment School District: Weston, CT (Assumption: Economic uptick occurs by ) 8/14/2012 Birth Year Births School Year Historical Enrollment By Grade PK K UNGR K-12 PK Historical Enrollment in Grade Combinations Historical Percentage Changes Year K K-5 K Year K-12 Diff. % % % % % % % % % % % % K-12 Change %
6 NOTE ON PK ENROLLMENTS SCHOOL PK IDENTIFIED PK YEAR OCT 1 AFTER 'OCT 1 SERVED = = = = = 37 Unlike students in Grades K-12, 3 and 4-year olds needing Special Education services may not yet be known to be recorded in the official SDE enrollments
7 Enrollment Weston, CT Historical & Projected Enrollment PK-12, Historical Projected
8 POSSIBLE FUTURES IN A TIME OF ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY: THREE SCENARIOS ASSUMPTIONS 1. Status Quo: Recent economic trends continue 2. Economic uptick occurs by Economic uptick occurs by
9 Weston, CT Projected Enrollment School District: Weston, CT (Assumption #1: Recent economic trends continue) 9/13/2012 Enrollment Projections By Grade* Birth Year Births School Year PK K UNGR K-12 PK (prov) (est.) (est.) (est.) (est.) (est.) (est.) *Projections should be updated on an annual basis. Based on an estimate of births Based on children already born Based on students already enrolled Projected Enrollment in Grade Combinations* Projected Percentage Changes Year K K-5 K Years K-12 Diff. % % % % % % % % % % % % See "Reliability of Enrollment Projections" section of accompanying letter. Projections are more reliable for Years 1-5 in the future than for Years 6 and beyond. K-12 Change %
10 Weston, CT Projected Enrollment School District: Weston, CT (Assumption #2: Economic uptick occurs by ) 9/13/2012 Enrollment Projections By Grade* Birth Year Births School Year PK K UNGR K-12 PK (prov) (est.) (est.) (est.) (est.) (est.) (est.) *Projections should be updated on an annual basis. Based on an estimate of births Based on children already born Based on students already enrolled Projected Enrollment in Grade Combinations* Year K K-5 K Years K-12 Diff. % % % % % % % % % % % % See "Reliability of Enrollment Projections" section of accompanying letter. Projections are more reliable for Years 1-5 in the future than for Years 6 and beyond. Projected Percentage Changes K-12 Change %
11 Weston, CT Projected Enrollment School District: Weston, CT (Assumption #3: Economic uptick occurs by ) 9/13/2012 Enrollment Projections By Grade* Birth Year Births School Year PK K UNGR K-12 PK (prov) (est.) (est.) (est.) (est.) (est.) (est.) *Projections should be updated on an annual basis. Based on an estimate of births Based on children already born Based on students already enrolled Projected Enrollment in Grade Combinations* Year K K-5 K Years K-12 Diff. % % % % % % % % % % % % See "Reliability of Enrollment Projections" section of accompanying letter. Projections are more reliable for Years 1-5 in the future than for Years 6 and beyond. Projected Percentage Changes K-12 Change %
12 HOW WE KNOW WHAT WE THINK WE KNOW Analyzing Weston data, comparable reports and recent information from nearby communities including Nellie Mae Education Foundation, New England 2020 Presentations/discussion at sessions of the New England Economic Partnership (NEEP) including Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody s Analytics (national forecast); Ross Gittell, Professor of Business and Economics, University of New Hampshire (New England forecast); and Edward Deak, Professor of Economics, Fairfield University (Connecticut forecast) 2009, 2010, 2011 and recent updates, e.g. Connecticut Economic Outlook 2011 Q Q4
13 Speaking with Town Manager, the Building Inspector and Planning Offices, with realtors who are residents of Weston (six realtors from five offices) and South Western Regional Planning Agency (SWRPA) which includes eight communities, as well as members of the Board of Education (BOE) and school personnel Fairfield University Economist Edward Deak anticipates a Connecticut generation drain with fewer age residents (whom he describes as energetic, newly educated, innovative, family-forming )
14 FINDINGS - 1 Births in Weston (and in many communities in the region) will continue to be slow for several years, as the present Weston population rose to a median age of 43.4 years in 2010 The pace of real estate sales will continue to be a more important factor in forecasting future Weston enrollments due to Weston s historically high ratio of K-12 students per dwelling (6.7 students per 10 dwellings, compared with the CT average of 3.7 public school students per 10 dwellings in 2010) Weston in 2000 had 6.6 students per 10 dwellings, consistently at/near tops in the state
15 FINDINGS - 2 Following past economic slowdowns, real estate sales historically pick up in Weston slightly following Westport (a common occurrence for a larger market, 3-4 other nearby communities often respond in a fairly predictable sequence) sales/leasings in Westport are beginning to pick up, as are enrollments An uptick in the rental/leasing of homes in a number of CT District Reference Group (DRG) A and B communities, appears to be a major factor causing unanticipated additional school enrollments in fall 2011 and 2012
16 FINDINGS - 3 Construction of new housing in Weston does not appear to be a major factor at this time, although there are about 100 permits each year for remodelings or additions, down from about 150 permits in 2005 Weston realtors report anecdotally that new clients within the past two years are as likely to have young children as in prior years Weston prices have relaxed a bit, drawing in new clients some persons who were waiting to downsize are beginning to consider listing their properties
17 FINDINGS - 4 The Weston Public Schools continue to be the major factor drawing new families to the community, balancing quality-of-life issues with strong fiscal management (only modest mill rate increases for the past four years)
18 FINDINGS - 5 The strong track record of students within the Weston Public Schools are reported as reasons why families locate to Weston for example, 26% of the Weston High School class of 2012 was accepted to college/universities defined as Most Competitive ; Newsweek ranked WHS as the #1 high school in Fairfield County and #2 in CT; 94% of the 474 Advanced Placement exams taken in 2012 were scored 3, 4 or 5 (highest); the combined SAT scores were 1794, with an average of 608 in Writing, 597 in Math, 589 in Critical Reading with a breadth of educational and cocurricular offerings and a support environment thus Weston is a recently discovered educational treasure
19 U. S. POPULATION: INCREASE FROM PREVIOUS CENSUS, Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston; used with permission
20 U.S. AND NEW ENGLAND IN 2000: AGE COHORT COMPARISON Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston; used with permission
21 Source: US Department of Education
22 TABLE 1 TOTAL POPULATION STATE OF CONNECTICUT: POPULATION NO. CHANGE % CHANGE ,287, ,405, , % ,574,097 FAIRFIELD COUNTY: POPULATION 168,532 NO. CHANGE 4.9% % CHANGE , ,567 54, % 916,829 36, % TOWN OF WESTON: POPULATION NO. CHANGE % CHANGE ,648 10,037 1, % 10, %
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24 TABLE 2 PERCENTAGE OF POPULATION UNDER THE AGE OF 18 AND MEDIAN AGE STATE OF CONNECTICUT: NO. UNDER 18 % UNDER 18 MEDIAN AGE , % , % FAIRFIELD COUNTY: 817, % 40.0 NO. UNDER 18 % UNDER 18 MEDIAN AGE , % , % , % 39.5 TOWN OF WESTON: NO. UNDER 18 % UNDER 18 MEDIAN AGE , % , % , % 43.4
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27 TABLE 3 AGE COHORT WESTON, CT SIZE OF COHORT AGE % CHANGE, 2000 TO % Age cohort % Decrease -432 (-18%) % % % % % Age cohort % Decrease -908 (-35%) % % Age cohort % Increase +919 (+19%) TOTAL: 8,648 10,037 10, %
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30 TABLE 4 PERCENTAGE OF K-12 ENROLLMENT IN POPULATION STATE OF CONNECTICUT: POPULATION PUBLIC K-12 ENROLLMENT* % K-12 ENR. IN POPULATION ,287, , % ,405, , % ,574, ,184 * Connecticut Department of Education 15.6% TOWN OF WESTON: POPULATION PUBLIC % K-12 ENR. K-12 IN ENROLLMENT POPULATION ,648 1, % ,037 10,179 2, % 2, %
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32 TABLE 5 POPULATION BY RACE AND HISPANIC ORIGIN STATE OF CONNECTICUT: WHITE BLACK ASIAN OTHER % NON- WHITE HISPANIC ORIGIN (of any race) % HISPANIC ,859, ,269 50, , % 213, % ,780, ,843 82, , % 320, % ,772, , , , % 479, % FAIRFIELD COUNTY: WHITE BLACK ASIAN OTHER % NON- WHITE HISPANIC ORIGIN (of any race) % HISPANIC ,350 81,519 17,332 28, % 70, % ,992 88,362 28,689 65, % 104, % ,900 99,317 42,284 89, % 155, % TOWN OF WESTON: WHITE BLACK ASIAN OTHER % NON- WHITE HISPANIC ORIGIN (of any race) % HISPANIC , % % , % % , % %
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34 TABLE 6 NUMBER OF DWELLING UNITS AND PERSONS PER UNIT STATE OF CONNECTICUT: NO. OF DWELLING UNITS % CHANGE PERSONS PER UNIT ,320, ,385, % ,487, % 2.4 FAIRFIELD COUNTY: NO. OF DWELLING UNITS % CHANGE PERSONS PER UNIT , , % , % 2.5 TOWN OF WESTON: NO. OF DWELLING UNITS % CHANGE PERSONS PER UNIT , , % , % 2.8
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36 TABLE 6A WESTON HOUSING DETAIL 2000 Dwellings Occupied Vacant 2010 Dwellings Occupied Vacant 3,532 3, ,674 3, % occupied 93% owner occupied 7% renter occupied 127 for seasonal use 3.8% rental vacancy rate 2 children under 18 w/ grandparent as primary caregiver +69 children under 18 w/ grandparent in residence (not primary caregiver) 92% occupied 93% owner occupied 7% renter occupied 162 for seasonal use 6.5% rental vacancy rate Source: U.S. Census, Tables DP-1,4
37 TABLE 6B WESTON, CT BUILDING PERMITS Units Units Year S-F Duplex Year S-F Duplex Sources: Building Department/HUD 2012 = 0 to July 31
38 TABLE 6C WESTON, CT HOUSE SALES Year # Single-Family Median Sales Price # Condo Units $417,000 $450,000 $510, $480,000 $508,000 $609,000 $629,000 $678,000 $680,000 $765,000 $815,000 $812,000 $975,000 $985,000 $935, * $900,000 $815,000 $830,000 $750,000 $726,250 1 *To July 31: compare with 2011 = 64; 2010 = 76; 2009 = 40; 2008 = 74; 2007 = 118 Source: The Warren Group, The Commercial Record
39 TABLE 7 NUMBER OF K-12 STUDENTS PER DWELLING UNIT STATE OF CONNECTICUT: # OF PUBLIC K-12 HOUSING K-12 STUDENTS UNITS ENROLLMENT PER UNIT ,320, , ,385, , ,487, , Number of Households with individuals under 18: 448, Percentage of Households with individuals under 18: 32.7% TOWN OF WESTON: # OF PUBLIC K-12 HOUSING K-12 STUDENTS UNITS ENROLLMENT PER UNIT 3,278 1, ,532 2, ,674 2, Number of Households with individuals under 18: 1, Percentage of Households with individuals under 18: 49.5%
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41 K-12 PUBLIC SCHOOL STUDENTS PER 10 DWELLINGS Town - DRG Students Town - DRG Students Weston - A 6.7 South Windsor - B 5.1 Darien - A 6.7 Glastonbury - B 4.8 Wilton - A 6.6 Avon - B 4.6 New Fairfield - B 5.9 Fairfield - B 4.6 Ridgefield - A 5.7 Cheshire - B 4.5 Easton - A 5.6 Redding - A 4.4 New Canaan - A 5.4 Woodbridge - B 4.2 Westport - A 5.4 Guilford - B 3.8 Monroe - B 5.3 West Hartford - B 3.8 Newtown - B 5.3 CT AVERAGE 3.7 Simsbury - B 5.1 Greenwich - B 3.4 Madison - B 5.1 Notes: K-12 enrollments / Dwellings in 2010 Census. Easton, Redding and Woodbridge include Grade 9-12 residents in their regional school districts. Madison, N. Fairfield and S. Windsor include year-around homes, not vacation homes. DRG = District Reference Group
42 TABLE 8 LIVE BIRTHS TO RESIDENTS IN WESTON, CT # OF YEAR BIRTHS AVERAGE % CHANGE % % Source: CT Department of Public Health
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44 Weston, CT Birth-to-Kindergarten Relationship K Enrollment, Over time, Weston's Kindergarten has registersed about 167 students for every 100 born in Weston K Enrollment Births Births
45 250 WESTON, CT BIRTH-TO-KINDERGARTEN RELATIONSHIP: 41 YEARS Birth Births Kindergarten 0
46 WESTON, CT B-K RATIOS & # OF "NET MOVE-INS" BIRTH SCHOOL B-K # "NET YEAR BIRTHS YEAR KINDERGARTEN RATIOS MOVE-INS" Orange = Ratios of Yellow = "Net Move-Ins" of 60+
47 Weston, CT Non-Public Regular Education 8/14/2012 Birth Year Births School Year Historical Enrollment By Grade PK K UNGR K-12 PK Historical Enrollment in Grade Combinations Historical Percentage Changes Year PK-5 K-5 K-6 K Year K-12 Diff. % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % K-12 Change %
48 K-12 PUBLIC SCHOOL STUDENTS PER 10 DWELLINGS Town - DRG Students Town - DRG Students Weston - A 6.7 South Windsor - B 5.1 Darien - A 6.7 Glastonbury - B 4.8 Wilton - A 6.6 Avon - B 4.6 New Fairfield - B 5.9 Fairfield - B 4.6 Ridgefield - A 5.7 Cheshire - B 4.5 Easton - A 5.6 Redding - A 4.4 New Canaan - A 5.4 Woodbridge - B 4.2 Westport - A 5.4 Guilford - B 3.8 Monroe - B 5.3 West Hartford - B 3.8 Newtown - B 5.3 CT AVERAGE 3.7 Simsbury - B 5.1 Greenwich - B 3.4 Madison - B 5.1 Notes: K-12 enrollments / Dwellings in 2010 Census. Easton, Redding and Woodbridge include Grade 9-12 residents in their regional school districts. Madison, N. Fairfield and S. Windsor include year-around homes, not vacation homes. DRG = District Reference Group
49 K-12 STUDENTS IN NON-PUBLIC SCHOOLS (SAME 22 COMMUNITIES) Town - DRG Non-Public Town - DRG Non-Public Greenwich - B 26.8% Ridgefield - A 9.2% New Canaan - A 18.9% Weston - A 9.2% Woodbridge - B 16.6% Avon - B 9.2% Darien - A 13.9% Guilford - B 8.9% Fairfield - B 12.6% Monroe - B 8.2% Cheshire - B 11.0% Wilton - A 8.0% Madison - B 10.0% South Windsor - B 5.7% Westport - A 10.0% Glastonbury - B 5.1% Newtown - B 9.9% Redding - A 4.0% Simsbury - B 9.7% New Fairfield - B 3.9% West Hartford - B 9.7% Easton - A 3.8% Source: CT SDE "Reported Non-Public School Enrollment by Resident Town" (most recent data available) Note: In recent years, about 15 Weston residents have attended non-public schools in each elementary grade; about 20 in each middle school grade; and about 25 in each high school grade
50 MEDIAN AGE - IN 2010 & 2000 CENSUS SAME 22 COMMUNITIES MEDIAN MEDIAN MEDIAN MEDIAN Town - DRG AGE AGE Town - DRG AGE AGE Woodbridge - B New Canaan - A Guilford - B Wilton - A Madison - B Newtown - B Redding - A Greenwich - B Easton - A Monroe - B Avon - B New Fairfield - B Westport- A Cheshire - B Simsbury - B West Hartford - B Ridgefield - A Fairfield - B Weston - A CT Average South Windsor - B Darien - A Glastonbury - B
51 Weston, CT Additional Data Building Permits Issued Enrollment History Voc-Tech Non-Public Year Single-Family Multi-Units Year 9-12 Total K-12 Total n/a Source: HUD and Building Department 2012 through July 31 = 0 Enrollments Residents in Non-Public Independent and Parochial Schools (Regular Education) K K-12 TOTAL K-12 Residents Enrolled in Charter K-12 SpEd Outplaced K-12 Home-Schooled Students or Magnet Schools Students K-12 Choiced-In, Tuitioned-In, & Other Non-Residents The above data were used to assist in the preparation of the enrollment projections. If additional demographic work is needed, please contact our office.
52 POSSIBLE FUTURES IN A TIME OF ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY: THREE SCENARIOS ASSUMPTIONS 1. Status Quo: Recent economic trends continue 2. Economic uptick occurs by Economic uptick occurs by
53 SUMMARY OF THREE "FUTURES" TOTAL SCHOOL YEAR K K Actual Future # Future # Future # Future # Future # Future # Note: Projections are more reliable for the initial 5 years; by Years #6-10, births must be projected and other factors will have changed
54 FINDINGS - 5 The strong track record of students within the Weston Public Schools are reported as reasons why families locate to Weston for example, 26% of the Weston High School class of 2012 was accepted to college/universities defined as Most Competitive ; Newsweek ranked WHS as the #1 high school in Fairfield County and #2 in CT; 94% of the 474 Advanced Placement exams taken in 2012 were scored 3, 4 or 5 (highest); the combined SAT scores were 1794, with an average of 608 in Writing, 597 in Math, 589 in Critical Reading with a breadth of educational and cocurricular offerings and a support environment thus Weston is a recently discovered educational treasure
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