Automotive Innovation 2020

Transcription

1 Automotive Innovation 2020 W H I T E PA P E R Remember when every prediction of the future included the vision of flying cars by the year 2020? While that particular breakthrough has yet to become widely available, it is difficult to deny that modern vehicles are marvels of technology. Innovations in current and next-generation automobiles expand capabilities and performance in four key areas: Autonomy, Energy Efficiency, Connectivity, and Electronics. Automotive Innovation Motivation and Goals What do automobile engineers and manufacturers hope to accomplish with this additional technology? At a high level, automotive innovations are driven by four separate but related goals: e-mobility CONNECTED CAR ELECTRONICS AUTONOMOUS DRIVING Figure 1 Find us at Page 1

2 Reduction of the approximate 1.23 million automotive-related deaths per-year. This is accomplished through advances in Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS), ultimately leading to autonomous driving. Innovations needed: radar sensors, laserimager based LIDAR sensors to judge proximity, multiple cameras and artificial intelligence algorithms running on high-end servers. Reduction in emissions. Meeting regulations requires manufacturers to look towards hybrid, fuel cell, or fully-electric drive-trains. Innovations needed: improved batteries, more efficient power conversion, and reducing electronics power draw. Passenger demands more information and entertainment without increasing cost. While price/performance is always a factor in car sales, the internet has spawned a new breed of consumer who expect their vehicle to provide the same seamless connectivity as their computer, mobile phone, or living room. Innovations needed: wide availability of 5G mobile networks, and ultra-high-speed intra-vehicle connections through automotive Ethernet. And, since such connections will likely prove attractive to hackers, cyber security is a must. New applications past the point of purchase. With technology innovators like Tesla blazing new trails, over-the-air application updates have gone from concept to reality. Just like with computer and cellular systems, application updates, feature updates, provisioning, and even security feature upgrades can now be uploaded to a vehicles operating system. The benefits of these emerging technologies require continuous innovation of several underlying technologies. Each technology innovation involves trade-offs that can propel them closer, or further away, from our vision of the future. Cars That Drive Themselves One of the most ambitious areas of automotive innovation is autonomous driving. The Society of Automotive Engineers and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration define six levels of autonomous driving, ranging from Level 0, where the human driver controls everything, to Level 5, where the vehicle s capabilities are equal to (or even better than) a human driver in every scenario. A Level 5 autonomous vehicle requires no human intervention (or even interaction) in any scenario. Partial Automation 1 Automation of Assist Functions 0 Conditional Automation 3 LE V Automated but Constrained 4 5 Full Automation EL 5 LEVE L0 1 L3 LEV No Automation 2 LEVE 4 LE EL EL 2 EL V LEV Figure 2: Six levels of autonomous driving Find us at Page 2

3 The industry has already made significant headway with this transition, with manufacturers like Tesla, Audi, Cadillac, Mercedes, and BMW producing Level 2 automobiles where the driver does not have to physically operate the vehicle, and can have his or her hands off the steering wheel and foot off the acceleration/brake pedals at the same time. The Google automotive spin-off Waymo has recently started to test a Level 4 vehicle on public roads in Arizona, U.S.A., where all safety-critical functions are handled by the vehicle. It is this driver hand-off function that has proved to be most difficult. As Waymo has noted in its 2017 Safety Report 1, drivers in Level 3 vehicles put too much confidence in the systems, and often have to take over from a distracted state and with little-orno context of the current situation. Indeed, many of the initial crashes in the testing of driverless cars can often be attributed to distracted human drivers who fail to properly take over when necessary, or when the drivers of the other cars are at fault. 2 The technology necessary to achieve any level of driverless cars innovations in sensors, communications and, of course, intelligent algorithms for real-time interpretation. Most modern vehicles use some variation of a Simultaneous Location and Mapping (SLAM) algorithm. SLAM combines information from multiple sensors and an off-line map to calculate current vehicle location and generates a more real-time map of the current environment. Multiple sensors in the self-driving vehicles provide overlapping levels of information to the SLAM algorithm, including: High-precision Global Positioning System (GPS) data for calculating current position and available routes to the final destination Multiple cameras to provide stereo vision, which help judge distance to objects and avoid obstacles in the path, as well as detecting 2-dimensional information like lane markers and road signs. Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) to provide a 3D scanned representation of terrain and objects in the surrounding environment Multiple sensors in the self-driving vehicles provide overlapping levels of information to the SLAM algorithm. Short-range sonic radar and detectors for detecting proximity of objects in the immediate environment around the car Longer range 77 Ghz radar to aid with distance and speed control, brake assist and emergency braking. This is especially helpful for all-weather autonomous driving. An Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU), which combines input from internal accelerometers, gyroscopes and magnetometers, to provide information about a vehicle s current speed, turn rate and angle, heading, acceleration, and other factors. Neural networks to enable machine learning, allowing continuous improvement of capabilities from use in real-life driving situations. 1 Waymo Safety Report, waymo.com, Find us at Page 3

4 Most ADAS solutions use some combination of the above technologies, integrating a variety of sensors including optical, LIDAR and radar systems. This has important consequences for the overall infrastructure of the vehicle, as the need to integrate the information from multiple sensors and react quickly to the derived data necessitates a robust intra-vehicle communications network. Individual sensors need to maintain performance across a wide range of operating conditions heat, cold, snow, rain, dust, etc. while being simple enough to work reliably without continuous maintenance. The sensor mix needs to be connected to a central processor in the vehicle powerful enough to make decisions in milliseconds, and then connected to electronic versions of physical actuators to engage steering and braking functions. Going Electric Meeting the goal of zero emissions requires electro mobility (or e-mobility). Put even more simply, electric cars. While hybrid vehicles are an interim step away from the internal combustion engine, the true end-goal is all-electric automobiles. Hybrids share most of the same benefits and challenges as fully-electric vehicles, so we can consider both variations together. Charging and batteries, of course, are the key challenges with hybrids and electric vehicles. A variety of batteries are available, with lead acid batteries being used for most first-generation vehicles, but with a movement towards lithium-ion batteries for newer highway-ready automobiles. Lithium-ion batteries have a better power-toweight ratio than traditional lead-acid batteries but have a shorter shelf life and may require more frequent replacement. Part of the solution is power conversion. Electric vehicles operate on Direct Current, but typical charging station power is Alternating Current. Translation of current occurs in the charging station itself. Charging can take anywhere from an hour (best case) to several days (worst case). However, if an appropriate high-energy charging station is available, charging time can be reduced to 30 minutes or less. Meeting the goal of zero emissions requires electro mobility (or e-mobility). Put even more simply, electric cars. While hybrid vehicles are an interim step away from the internal combustion engine, the true endgoal is all-electric automobiles. The power challenge for electric cars is that manufacturers are trying to increase battery efficiency, but at the same time are adding more power draw in the form of more sensors, cameras and infotainment systems. Although some systems, such as regenerative braking, can partially recharge batteries in transit, electric cars have to survive on a single charge operating everything in the vehicle. This includes several conveniences not normally associated with fuel consumption. A simple example is Find us at Page 4

5 heating. An internal combustion car can reuse some of the heat generated by the engine to provide heat for people in the cabin; In an electric vehicle, heating and cooling are separate subsystems, each requiring specific power to produce. As electric cars become more prevalent, innovations are increasing battery efficiency, power conversion efficiency, and electronic load which in turn is increasing driving range. While there are many more innovations still to come, electric cars are rapidly catching up to the range, price, performance and convenience of the combustion engine vehicles they are replacing. Always-Connected Automobiles Automobiles have come a long way from their off-line origins and have entered a new age of connected cars. 3 It started with OnStar, the emergency assistance system that connected the car to first responders in the case of an accident. The European equivalent, ecall, was approved by the European Commission in It is from these humble beginnings that the modern age of vehicle connectivity began. Modern vehicles use a wide variety of communication protocols to remain in touch with the outside world, including: 1-way satellite communications for subscription-based radio services like Sirius XM 1-way navigation through Global Positioning Systems (GPS), Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GLONASS), BeiDou, and Galileo 2-way GSM, CDMA, and W-CDMA for extra-vehicle communications 2-way 4G LTE for Internet connectivity 2-way Dedicated Short Range Communications (DSRC) radios for providing local information for safety (vehicle collision avoidance, emergency vehicle prioritization) and driver convenience (automated safety inspections, toll payments, parking directions) and transportation efficiency (long-haul trucking platooning) 2-way emerging 5G cellular internet for low latency multiple-gigabit-per-second networks which will open up vehicles to high bandwidth audio and video, as well as offloading some of the more computationally-intense safety features into the cloud. 3 It is worth noting that the capabilities of ADAS could be considered as facets of connected cars. They are separated out here for clarity, and because they are unique enough to merit their own category. Find us at Page 5

6 However, the future is not without its innovation challenges. The initial deployment of 5G networks is likely to be in urban areas, with connectivity becoming patchier in rural areas. There will likely be many dead spots throughout a typical highway drive, at least initially. Gracefully accommodating dropouts in connectivity will be one of the emerging challenges for connected cars. Alternately, many governments are debating whether connectivity is so vital to automobile safety that they mandate complete coverage across all regions. Think of an interstate highway system project in the United States in the 1950 s 4, except connecting data instead of roads. ADAS will change the way we interact with our vehicles, and data connections are critical to delivering on the promise of ADAS. As Rob Topol, general manager of Intel s 5G business and technology, said: When you re sitting in the back seat of that car, your experience changes. You re not required to be fully focused on where it s going and what it s doing. The bandwidth requirements in the car are going to grow exponentially as our time is freed up inside the vehicle. 5 Perhaps most attractive to consumers are the living room-type services that autonomously driven, connected cars can provide. Backseat gaming, high-definition music and 3D video, and augmented reality are just the start. Satellite navigation will be supplemented by in-car WiFi for both passengers and drivers. Drivers who choose to drive will have full-windshield head-up displays. Information beyond just fuel, oil and tire pressure will be available; indeed, every aspect of every system will be query-able and displayable. In many ways, the vehicle revolution of 2020 will be similar to the smartphone revolution of Device providers, service providers, and consumers all knew we were on the edge of something important, but no one could have predicted how ubiquitous, capable and intelligent they would become. As connected car evolve, the appetite for data connectivity and consumption will grow 6 similar to the data explosion from smartphones. Perhaps most attractive to consumers are the living roomtype services that autonomously driven, connected cars can provide. Backseat gaming, high-definition music and 3D video, and augmented reality are just the start Insights/Monetizing%20car%20data/Monetizing-car-data.ashx Find us at Page 6

7 Connected car communications is not limited to intra-vehicle or vehicle-to-cloud. The ultimate goal is vehicle-to-everything (V2X) 7. Major types of V2X include: Vehicle-to-Vehicle: If a vehicle is aware of, and able to communicate data with, other vehicles around it, the possibilities for collision-avoidance, blind-spot monitoring and traffic management are greatly increased allowing following distances to be reduced safely Vehicle-to-Grid: For hybrid and fully-electric vehicles, being able to communicate with the power grid has many advantages. Imagine being able to purchase power during offpeak hours when it is cheapest, or being able to resell stored power back to the electric company Vehicle-to-Device: This expands the interaction between cars and smartphones beyond entertainment to include things like keyless entry and ignition, as well as applications like car sharing Vehicle-to-Infrastructure: Using roadside beacons could inform drivers about things like road closures, traffic patterns, emergencies and other relevant information to augment cellular Vehicle-to-Network: Using LTE broadcast-to-broadcast messages from a V2X server, it is possible for vehicles to send unicast messages about traffic conditions and hazards Vehicle-to-Pedestrian: The U.S. Department of Transport has defined 86 separate applications which may help vehicles and pedestrians (including bikes and motorcycles) interact more safely. These range from mobile apps that allow pedestrians to tap into the various infrastructure signals cars are receiving to advanced detection of pedestrians in crosswalks, blind spots, road shoulders or other dangerous locations The Vehicle Meets The LAN Making all of this happen requires a lot more automotive electronics. While each of the other innovation areas require electronics, there are additional convenience, safety, and comfort features worth mentioning, including: Engine management In-car environmental controls Rain sensors and wiper controls Emergency brake light indicators Power steering Keyless entry and ignition Anti-theft detection and prevention Active suspension Airbag deployment based on accelerometer data Anti-lock braking systems Speedometer, tachometer, and odometer Tire pressure monitoring 7 Much of this information is derived from the U.S Department of Transport. Here is a good starting point: Find us at Page 7

8 The list of features for modern vehicles could go on for pages. Connecting these and all the other sensors mentioned previously depends on the wiring harness. Typically, each system in an automobile will have its own dedicated cabling, and frequently its own protocols, including Controller Area Network (CAN), FlexRay, Media Oriented Systems Transport (MOST) and Low Voltage Differential Signaling (LVDS). Therefore, the wiring harness is the third heaviest component in a vehicle, as well as its third most costly system. The wiring harness is also responsible for 50% of labor costs during automobile assembly.8 The list of features for modern vehicles could go on for pages. Connecting these and all the other sensors mentioned An emerging solution to the cost and weight of the wiring harness is Automotive previously depends Ethernet. Ethernet is a well-known, well-trusted, and ubiquitous solution in traditional on the wiring harness. Local Area Networking (LAN). Its move into the automotive market has been slowed by its difficulty meeting automotive EMI/RFI specifications. Traditional Ethernet was simply too noisy and interference-sensitive for use in moving automobiles. Some vehicles are using Ethernet for diagnostic systems and firmware updates during maintenance cycles, but avoid it for situations when the car is actually in motion. Diagnostic and firmware update standards are defined by ISO Find us at Page 8

9 The advantages of Ethernet multi-point connections, higher bandwidth and low latency remain highly attractive to manufacturers. The problems are being addressed by a number of innovations and protocol standardization. Automotive Open System Architecture (AUTOSAR) is a software architecture agreed upon by manufacturers, suppliers and other third parties. The standards are roughly based on existing TCP/UDP/IP protocols. The aim is to reduce the wiring harness by letting in-car devices run on a single shared infrastructure One Pair Ethernet (OPEN) is the standardized version of Broadcom s BroadR-Reach physical layer protocol for automotive Ethernet. It allows for bi-directional transfer of data at 100Mbps over copper single pair wiring. Because of the lower bandwidth (versus 1Gbps Ethernet) and single pair, OPEN implementations meet the EMI requirements of the automotive industry Automotive 1Gbps Ethernet is being explored by the IEEE 802.3bp task force Power-over-Ethernet (PoE) will be used to power on-board devices. This is being investigated and standardized by the IEEE 801.3bu 1-Pair Power over Data Lines group Energy Efficient Ethernet allows Ethernet-connected devices to be turned off when not in use, saving battery draw and lowering power consumption Timing standards for synchronizing timing between multiple sensors (IEEE 802.1AS) and prioritizing latency-sensitive packets (IEEE 802.3br Interspersed Express Packets) The Time-Sensitive Networking Task Group at the IEEE have defined many standards for latency and bandwidth on shared networks. These include Stream Reservation (802.1Qat) and Queuing and Forwarding for AV Bridges (801.1Qav). In addition, they have defined standards for time-sensitive applications for Layer 2 (IEEE 1722) and Layer 3 (IEEE 1733) networks. Infotainment On-Board Diagnostics Safety Sensors 360 Camera System The Connected Car Seamless Connectivity with Mobile Devices 100% Of cars will be connected by 2025 * 75% Of cars on the road will be autonomous by 2035 ** Figure *GSMA 2013, **Navigant Research 2013 Find us at Page 9

10 The clear movement in the automotive industry is towards high-bandwidth, lowlatency shared networks like Ethernet, with all sensors, cameras, diagnostic and other systems connected through a common switch. Tomorrow is Today The rate of innovation in the automotive industry is exciting and continuously growing. With the rapid advances in autonomous driving, e-mobility, connected cars and automotive Ethernet, the advancements we marvel at today may seem basic in just a few years. And there are new, and even more astonishing developments just over the horizon. Although many innovation challenges remain, the automotive industry is transforming into its own center of innovation. In the 1990 s living rooms were transformed through advancements in electronics and Internet connectivity. In in the 2000 s, a similar transformation happened with smartphones. In the 2020 s, that same similar transformation will happen with our vehicles. With all this innovation transforming the way we interact with our vehicles, who needs flying cars? Perhaps that will be in Automotive Innovation Learn more at: For more information on Keysight Technologies products, applications or services, please contact your local Keysight office. The complete list is available at: Find us at This information is subject to change without notice. Keysight Technologies, 2018, Published in USA, April 10, 2018, EN Page 10