2018 Final ICAP Forecast
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1 2018 Final ICAP Forecast Arthur Maniaci Supervisor, Load Forecasting & Energy Efficiency Load Forecasting Task Force December 19, 2017 DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY COPYRIGHT NYISO ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
2 Changes Since December 14 th LFTF Meeting 1. Made minor updates to actual loads, resulting in small changes to NCP/CP ratios for and Zone J Localities; 2. Made minor updates to SCR generators in NYSEG, LIPA and Con-Ed s; 3. Checked all calculations and rounded results to nearest 0.1 MW. 4. Added table for the 2018 LCR Study, including impact of Behind the Meter Net Generators COPYRIGHT NYISO ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 2
3 Consolidated Edison 2017 Load Reconciliation 7/19/2017, Hour Beginning 5 PM V3. 12/19/2017 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) NYISO DSS Actual MW Data Owner Load Data Actual BPS Muni Load + Percent Actual Load Actual Actual Load Weather Demand TOs' W/N MW Load Losses Gen Losses Losses Less Losses Losses With Losses Adjustments Response With DR Con-Ed LSE Load 11, , , ,113.9 Load Served 11, , , , , , % 11, ,839.5 Central Hudson Central Hudson LSE Load ,089.0 Load Served , % Long Island Power Authority LIPA LSE Load 4, , ,145.2 NYPA Load & Greenport Load Freeport & Rockville Centre Load Load Served 4, , , , , % 4, ,996.0 National Grid National Grid LSE 5, , ,639.3 NYPA Load NYMPA Load Jamestown Load Green Island Load Load Served 5, , , , , % 5, ,285.1 COPYRIGHT NYISO ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 3
4 2017 Load Reconciliation 7/19/2017, Hour Beginning 5 PM V3. 12/19/2017 New York Power Authority (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) NYISO DSS Actual MW Data Owner Load Data Actual BPS Muni Load + Percent Actual Load Actual Actual Load Weather Demand TOs' W/N MW Load Losses Gen Losses Losses Less Losses Losses With Losses Adjustments Response With DR NYPA LSE Load NYMPA Load Load Served % New York State Electric & Gas NYSEG LSE Load 2, , ,140.1 NYPA Load NYMPA Load Load Served 2, , , , , % 2, ,876.4 Orange & Rockland Utilities O&R LSE Load ,128.2 Load Served , % Rochester Gas & Electric RG&E LSE Load 1, , ,581.4 NYMPA Load Load Served 1, , , , , % 1, ,413.2 Totals 29, , % 29, , , ,927.5 COPYRIGHT NYISO ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 4
5 Consolidated Edison 2017 Load Reconciliation 7/19/2017, Hour Beginning 5 PM V3. 12/19/2017 (11) (12) (13) (14) (15) (16) (17) (18) (19) (20) Reallocation of Losses Proportional Adj. W/N Adj Load TOs' W/N MW W/N Station Adj. W/N Load Percent Loss Allocation Load Less Adjusted Actual (1 +WNF) Prior to With DR Losses Power Less Losses Allocation of Losses Losses Load (MW) Loss Adjustment Con-Ed LSE Load 13, , % , ,279.6 Load Served 13, , % , , ,113.9 Central Hudson Central Hudson LSE Load 1, , % , ,078.3 Load Served 1, , % , , ,089.0 Long Island Power Authority LIPA LSE Load 5, , % , ,189.8 NYPA Load & Greenport Load % Freeport & Rockville Centre Load % Load Served 5, , % , , ,346.0 National Grid National Grid LSE 6, , % , ,403.2 NYPA Load % NYMPA Load % Jamestown Load % Green Island Load % Load Served 7, , % , , ,063.3 COPYRIGHT NYISO ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 5
6 2017 Load Reconciliation 7/19/2017, Hour Beginning 5 PM V3. 12/19/2017 New York Power Authority (11) (12) (13) (14) (15) (16) (17) (18) (19) (20) Reallocation of Losses Proportional Adj. W/N Adj Load TOs' W/N MW W/N Station Adj. W/N Load Percent Loss Allocation Load Less Adjusted Actual (1 +WNF) Prior to With DR Losses Power Less Losses Allocation of Losses Losses Load (MW) Loss Adjustment NYPA LSE Load % NYMPA Load % Load Served % New York State Electric & Gas NYSEG LSE Load 3, , % , ,140.2 NYPA Load % NYMPA Load % Load Served 3, , % , , ,259.8 Orange & Rockland Utilities O&R LSE Load 1, , % , ,144.0 Load Served 1, , % , , ,128.2 Rochester Gas & Electric RG&E LSE Load 1, , % , ,597.4 NYMPA Load % Load Served 1, , % , , ,593.5 Totals 32, , % , , ,913.8 COPYRIGHT NYISO ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 6
7 2018 New York Control Area Peak Load Forecast (MW) Draft Final 12/19/2017 s 2017 Weather (1 + Regional 2018 Load ICAP 2018 Locality Forecasts Normalized MW Load Growth At Time of Deductions Market Load + Losses MW Factor) NYCA Peak Forecast J Locality K Locality G-J Locality Consolidated Edison 13, , , , ,271.2 Central Hudson 1, , , ,087.4 Long Island Power Authority 5, , ,166.4 NYPA & Greenport Freeport & Rockville Centre LIPA Total 5, , , ,375.7 National Grid 6, , ,409.6 NYPA NYMPA Jamestown Green Island Power Authority National Grid Total 6, , ,833.0 New York Power Authority NYMPA NYPA Total New York State Electric & Gas 3, , , NYPA NYMPA NYSEG Total 3, , ,254.0 Orange & Rockland Utilities 1, , , ,141.3 Rochester Gas & Electric 1, , ,582.1 NYMPA RG&E Total 1, , ,594.3 Total Load in NYCA or Locality 32, , , , , ,917.6 COPYRIGHT NYISO ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 7
8 (1) 2017 Actual Coincident Peak in G to J Locality July 20, 2017, HB 16 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) G H I J Total Con Edison , , ,839.5 Cen Hudson LIPA Nat. Grid NYPA NYSEG O&R RG&E Grand Total 1, ,311 10,272 14,163.1 (3) 2017 Weather-Adjusted Locality Peak for (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) G H I J Total Con Edison , , ,241.3 Cen Hudson 1, ,096.2 LIPA Nat. Grid NYPA NYSEG O&R 1, ,139.1 RG&E Grand Total 2, ,466 11,488 15,895.0 NCP/CP ratio (2) 2017 Weather-Adjusted Coincident Peak in G to J Locality (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) G H I J Total Con Edison , , ,114.0 Cen Hudson 1, ,085.7 LIPA Nat. Grid NYPA NYSEG O&R 1, ,128.2 RG&E Grand Total 2, ,452 11,377 15,742.3 (4) 2018 Peak Forecast for Locality (1) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) G H I J Total RLGF Con Edison , , , Cen Hudson 1, , LIPA Nat. Grid NYPA NYSEG O&R 1, , RG&E Grand Total 2, ,470 11,514 15, COPYRIGHT NYISO ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 8
9 Zone J and Zone K Locality Peaks Locality 2017 Actual Municipal Weather Demand 2017 Weather Regional Load 2018 Locality Load Generation Adjustment Response Adjusted Load Growth Factor Forecast Zone J Locality Zone K Locality COPYRIGHT NYISO ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 9
10 NYCA Coincident Peak Dates & Times & Zonal MW Locality Peak Dates & Times & Zonal MW (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) (15) = (14-7) Year NYCA Hr Zone G Zones Hr Zone J Year Zone G Zones Zone J G-J NCP Peak Date Beg H+I CP Peak Date Beg H+I Delta /9/ ,277 2,056 10,979 15, /10/ ,338 2,101 11,262 15, /17/ ,159 1,875 10,366 14, /21/ ,117 1,879 10,661 14, /6/ ,399 2,187 11,600 16, /6/ ,399 2,187 11,600 16, /22/ ,482 2,239 11,826 16, /22/ ,482 2,239 11,826 16, /17/ ,282 2,082 11,405 15, /18/ ,288 2,071 11,424 15, /19/ ,384 2,253 11,736 16, /19/ ,384 2,253 11,736 16, /2/ ,036 1,917 10,567 14, /2/ ,046 1,933 10,572 14, /29/ ,070 1,930 10,455 14, /20/ ,059 1,996 10,675 14, /11/ ,069 1,993 11,006 15, /11/ ,069 1,993 11,006 15, /19/ ,993 1,898 10,272 14, /20/ ,046 1,936 10,696 14, Average 15,279 Average 15, Ratio of Locality Peak to Coincident Peak NYCA Coincident Peak Dates & Times & Zonal MW Zone J Locality Peak Dates & Times & Zonal MW (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) (15) = (13-6) Year NYCA Hr Zone G Zones Zone J Hr Zone J Year Zone G Zones, Zone J Zone J Coin. Peak Date Beg H+I CP Peak Date Beg H+I Delta with J /9/ ,277 2,056 10,979 15, /10/ ,338 2,101 11,262 15, /17/ ,159 1,875 10,366 14, /21/ ,117 1,879 10,661 14, /6/ ,399 2,187 11,600 16, /6/ ,399 2,187 11,600 16, /22/ ,482 2,239 11,826 16, /22/ ,375 2,107 11,876 16, /17/ ,282 2,082 11,405 15, /18/ ,115 2,002 11,438 15, /19/ ,384 2,253 11,736 16, /19/ ,384 2,253 11,736 16, /2/ ,036 1,917 10,567 14, /2/ ,046 1,933 10,572 14, /29/ ,070 1,930 10,455 14, /20/ ,059 1,996 10,675 14, /11/ ,069 1,993 11,006 15, /11/ ,069 1,993 11,006 15, /19/ ,993 1,898 10,272 14, /20/ ,046 1,936 10,696 14, Average 11,021 Average 11, Ratio of J Locality Peak to J Coincident Peak COPYRIGHT NYISO ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 10
11 2017 Summary of Actual BTM:NG Resources 2018 Forecast of BTM:NG Resources (a) (a1) (a2) (a3) (a4) NYCA Peak J Locality Peak K Locality Peak G-J Locality Peak 2017 Peak Proxy Load (1 + WNF) (1 + RLGF) 2018 Average Coincident Host Load Row 9/19/2017 9/20/2017 9/20/2017 9/20/2017 HB 17 HB 16 HB 16 HB 16 Row (a) (b) (c) (d) (e)=(b)*(c)*(d) 1 Central Hudson 1 Con-Ed 2 Con-Ed 2 Central Hudson 3 LIPA LIPA NYPA 4 National Grid 5 NYSEG 5 NYPA 6 National Grid 6 NYSEG 7 O&R 7 O&R 8 RG&E 8 RG&E Total Total COPYRIGHT NYISO ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 11
12 Coincident and Non-Coincident Peak Loads by and Zone for 2018 LCR Study, Including BTM:NG Resources Coincident Peaks - MW (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) A B C D E F G H I J K NYCA Con Edison , , ,143.6 Cen Hudson 3.3 1, ,080.3 LIPA 5, ,362.1 Nat. Grid 2, , , ,070.4 NYPA NYSEG , ,254.0 O&R 1, ,130.3 RG&E 1, ,578.2 NYCA 2, , , , , , , , , ,942.8 BTMNG & Load Modifiers Locality Peaks - MW Peaks 2, , , ,917.6 Non-Coincident Zonal Peaks - MW NC Peaks 2, , , , , , , , ,415.9 COPYRIGHT NYISO ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 12
13 The Mission of the New York Independent System Operator, in collaboration with its stakeholders, is to serve the public interest and provide benefits to consumers by: Maintaining and enhancing regional reliability Operating open, fair and competitive wholesale electricity markets Planning the power system for the future Providing factual information to policy makers, stakeholders and investors in the power system COPYRIGHT NYISO ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 13
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