Distributed Solar Generation Update

Transcription

1 Distributed Solar Generation Update Load Analysis Subcommittee November 18, 2016

2 Topics Review of Process to incorporate Distributed Solar Generation into the Long-Term Forecast State to Zone Allocations Back-casting Procedure Updates to Cloud Cover Capacity Factors Capacity at Peak 2

3 Review of Process to Incorporate Distributed Solar Generation into the Long-Term Forecast

4 Distributed Solar Generation Distributed solar generation: Are not PJM grid- interconnected (i.e. non-wholesale) Does not go through the full interconnection queue process Does not offer as capacity nor energy resources Nets directly with the load in terms of data submissions Either at a customer site or via the distribution system Does not provide metered production data to PJM 4

5 Process Review PJM is using a two-step approach to address distributed solar PV generation (aka distributed solar generation) in the PJM Load Forecast. Step 1: To account for the historical impacts of distributed solar generation, PJM is using the distributed solar installation data from the Generation Attribute Tracking System, adjusted for solar insolation based on a 27 degree tilt, cloud cover, efficiency degradations, and DC to AC measurement. The back-casted values are an hourly value by zone. These estimates are then added to the unrestricted load used in PJM load models to generate a forecast that essentially removes distributed solar generation impacts from the load. Step 2: For the forecasted value of distributed solar capacity, PJM contracted with IHS Energy to develop a distributed solar generation forecast specific to the PJM region. The full IHS summary report is available via the link below. PJM then uses the state level forecast to determine a zonal level value for the capacity at peak. The zone level capacity value at peak is then subtracted from the forecast with the solar addbacks. Table B-1 reflects this subtraction, and the distributed solar generation forecast values are explicitly shown in the B-8 table. IHS 2017 Distributed Solar Generation slides: 5

6 RTO Forecast Illustrating the Two-Step Approach PJM RTO Summer Peak Process Review 6

7 State to Zone Allocations

8 IHS Forecast Distributed Solar Generation Forecast by State IHS Scenario 1 Policy Continuity PJM Region Only Annual Additions of Nameplate Capacity DC DE IL IN KY MD MI NC NJ OH PA , , ,133.5 TN VA WV Total , , , , , , ,

9 Comparison of Forecasts Distributed Solar Generation Forecast of Additions by State Comparison of 2016 and 2017 Forecast 2017 Forecast 2016 Forecast Percent Change DC % 275% 367% 499% DE % -11% 51% 266% IL % 36% 167% 276% IN % 30% 184% 385% KY % 150% 805% 1697% MD % 122% 211% 613% MI % 212% 221% 446% NC % 50% 34% 44% NJ % 190% 103% -59% OH % -38% 53% 260% PA % 30% 80% 121% TN % 0% 0% 0% VA % 180% 136% 124% WV % -86% -80% -83% Total % 88% 119% 176% 9

10 IHS Forecast The IHS state forecast of the PJM Region was converted to zone using the energy forecast The energy forecast will be based on all the inputs for the final forecast and this portion will be updated accordingly as we continue to work towards a final forecast. The energy forecast was converted to a state level value using EIA 826 to estimate utility sales by state for those transmission zones that span multiple states Once the share of the zone to the state was calculated, that ratio was applied to the state level solar addition values. 10

11 Distributed Solar Generation Forecast by Zone Annual Additions of Nameplate Capacity IHS Forecast AE AEP APS ATSI BGE COMED DAYTON DEOK DLCO DPL EKPC JCPL METED PECO PENLC PEPCO PL PS RECO UGI VEPCO PJM RTO , , , , , , ,

12 Distributed Solar Generation Forecast by Zone Cumulative Additions of Nameplate Capacity IHS Forecast AE AEP ,062.6 APS , ,224.9 ATSI BGE COMED DAYTON DEOK DLCO DPL EKPC JCPL METED PECO , , ,824.6 PENLC PEPCO PL , , ,793.0 PS RECO UGI VEPCO , , , , , , , , , , ,181.0 PJM RTO , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

13 Consideration of Historical Installations IHS values represent a forecast of future additions of nameplate capacity of distributed solar generation Must still account for historical installations since these were added back to the forecast in terms of the back-casting Incorporate by using the installations from the Generation Attribute Tracking System (GATS) and a conservative degradation rate of 0.8% per year to determine an annual nameplate capacity value per forecast year. Table on next slide shows the assumed nameplate capacity for historical installations for each year in the forecast. 13

14 Consideration of Historical Installations Distributed Solar Generation of Historical Values by Zone Cumulative Nameplate Capacity AE AEP APS ATSI BGE COMED DAYTON DEOK DLCO DPL EKPC JCPL METED PECO PENLC PEPCO PL PS RECO UGI VEPCO PJM RTO 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

15 Historical and IHS Nameplate Capacity Distributed Solar Generation Forecast by Zone Cumulative Nameplate Capacity Includes Historical Degraded Values and IHS Forecast AE AEP ,098.2 APS , ,300.1 ATSI ,049.4 BGE COMED DAYTON DEOK DLCO DPL EKPC JCPL METED PECO , , ,876.2 PENLC PEPCO PL , , ,879.9 PS RECO UGI VEPCO , , , , , , , , , , , ,491.1 PJM RTO 3, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

16 Forecast Comparison Comparison of Last year s Distributed Solar Generation Forecast to 2016 Installations 2016 GATS Data IHS Forecast (Published 2015) AE AEP APS ATSI BGE COMED DAYTON DPL DLCO DEOK EKPC JCPL METED PECO PENLC PEPCO PL PS RECO UGI VEPCO PJM RTO 2, ,555.2

17 Back-casting Process

18 Back-casting Process Back casted values are added to the unrestricted loads in order to exclude the impact of solar from other variables in the forecast model. To calculate back casted values, the following was done: GATS data was separated by zone, weather station, and online date Weather station mappings are defined based on proximity to nearest ASOS Weather Station (more on next slide) Nameplate capacity from GATS was converted using solar insolation and cloud cover values corresponding to the applicable weather station. Temperatures above 55 degrees had an efficiency degradation of 0.27%. Those values then were converted to consider a 27 degree tilt and a DC to AC conversion based on the applicable weather station These values were calculated on an hourly basis for every day since the first date of installation 18

19 Weather Station Mapping Using publicly available cloud cover from the Automated Surface Observing System, mappings occurred based on proximity of the county to a particular weather station This cloud cover data is recorded as the following: Assigned Value Sky Cover Condition Recorded Value Conversion Presented Last Month 19 Recommended value Clear CLR 0 Sky Cover 0% 0% Few FEW 1/8-2/8 Sky Cover 25% 19% Scattered SCT 3/8-4/8 Sky Cover 50% 44% Broken BKN 5/8-7/8 Sky Cover 75% 75% Overcast OVC 8/8 Sky Cover 100% 100%

20 Historical GATS Installations Historical Nameplate Capacity of Distributed Solar Generation (MW) AE AEP APS ATSI BGE COMED DAYTON DEOK DLCO DPL EKPC JCPL METED PECO PENLC PEPCO PL PS RECO UGI VEPCO PJM RTO , , , , ,616.9 Please note that all years except for 2016 are based on calendar year, 2016 is through 8/31/

21 Back-casted Values by Zone Annual GWh of Back-casted Distributed Solar Generation AE AEP APS ATSI BGE COMED DAYTON DEOK DLCO DPL EKPC JCPL METED PECO PENLC PEPCO PL PS RECO UGI VEPCO PJM RTO , , , , ,343.9 Please note that all years except for 2016 are based on calendar year, 2016 is through 8/31/

22 Unrestricted Peak Loads with Back-Cast Estimate Unrestricted Peak Loads with Estimated Solar Back-casted Value PJM RTO Year Date Hour Ending Unrestricted Load (MW) Estimated Solar Backcasted Value (MW) Unrestricted Load with the addition of the Estimated Solar Backcasted /21/ , , /30/ , , /9/ , , /9/ , , /1/ , , /21/ , , /3/ , , /26/ , , /2/ , , /8/ , , /9/ , , /10/ , , /7/ , , /21/ , , /17/ , , /18/ , , /17/ , , /28/ , , /11/ ,945 1, ,088 22

23 Capacity Factors Capacity Factors are calculated using the hourly back-casted values divided by the value of the GATS installations The average capacity factor over Hour Ending 17 for the months of June, July, and August will be applied to the Zonal level Nameplate Capacity for a value at peak 23 Capacity Factors Hour Ending 17; 10 Coincident Peak Hours June, July, and August AE 37% 28% AEP 36% 32% APS 32% 28% ATSI 32% 28% BGE 32% 26% COMED 34% 32% DAYTON 33% 32% DEOK 29% 26% DLCO 30% 25% DPL 39% 30% EKPC 33% 31% JCPL 34% 26% METED 38% 29% PECO 35% 29% PENLC 38% 31% PEPCO 30% 25% PL 36% 28% PS 36% 27% RECO 35% 26% UGI 36% 27% VEPCO 33% 27%

24 Capacity Factors Comparison to 2015 Process Capacity Factor Comparison Hour Ending 17; June, Hour Ending 17; June, July, and August July, and August 2016 Back-casting 2015 Back-casting Process Process AE 28% 32% AEP 32% 22% APS 28% 20% ATSI 28% 31% BGE 26% 21% COMED 32% 24% DAYTON 32% 25% DEOK 26% 24% DLCO 25% 22% DPL 30% 29% EKPC 31% 32% JCPL 26% 23% METED 29% 23% PECO 29% 19% PENLC 31% 33% PEPCO 25% 19% PL 28% 27% PS 27% 18% RECO 26% 18% UGI 27% 25% VEPCO 27% 24 23%

25 Distributed Solar Generation Forecast by Zone Annual Capacity at Peak Capacity at Peak AE AEP APS ATSI BGE COMED DAYTON DEOK DLCO DPL EKPC JCPL METED PECO PENLC PEPCO PL PS RECO UGI VEPCO PJM RTO , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

26 Distributed Solar Generation 2017 Forecast by Zone Annual Capacity at Peak * Cumulative zonal impact is less than 20 MW at summer peak 26

27 Distributed Solar Generation 2016 Forecast by Zone Annual Capacity at Peak For Comparison Purposes Only * Cumulative zonal impact is less than 26 MW at summer peak 27

28 Distributed Solar Generation Forecast by Zone Comparison of 2016 and 2017 Forecast Capacity at Peak 2017 Forecast 2016 Forecast Percent Change AE % 5% 7% 5% AEP % 28% 54% 104% APS % 91% 114% 142% ATSI % -18% -8% 22% BGE % 84% 110% 147% COMED % -29% 5% 48% DAYTON % 10% 25% 72% DEOK % -4% 9% 55% DLCO % -27% -1% 24% DPL % 11% 22% 46% EKPC % 1% 58% 170% JCPL % 25% 28% 26% METED % 20% 30% 44% PECO % 29% 47% 68% PENLC % -38% -17% 5% PEPCO % 101% 133% 175% PL % -4% 4% 15% PS % 60% 64% 61% RECO % 52% 59% 53% UGI % -33% -15% 26% VEPCO % 87% 92% 98% PJM RTO , , , % 40% 52% 68% 28

29 Appendix

30 Unrestricted Peak Loads with Estimated Solar Back-cast Unrestricted Peak Loads with Estimated Solar Back-casted Value AE Zone Zone Year Date Hour Ending Unrestricted Load (MW) Unrestricted Load with the addition of the AE /22/ ,265-2,265 AE /5/ ,473-2,473 AE /7/ ,329-2,329 AE /9/ ,635-2,635 AE /29/ ,677-2,677 AE /22/ , ,485 AE /30/ , ,454 AE /27/ , ,838 AE /3/ , ,010 AE /8/ , ,954 AE /9/ , ,641 AE /10/ , ,711 AE /24/ , ,950 AE /22/ , ,982 AE /18/ , ,913 AE /18/ , ,769 AE /2/ , ,485 AE /20/ , ,585 AE /14/ , ,738 30

31 Unrestricted Peak Loads with Estimated Solar Back-cast Unrestricted Peak Loads with Estimated Solar Back-casted Value AEP Zone Zone Year Date Hour Ending Unrestricted Load (MW) Unrestricted Load with the addition of the AEP /21/ ,160-21,160 AEP /30/ ,882-21,882 AEP /15/ ,588-20,588 AEP /8/ ,911-22,911 AEP /1/ , ,129 AEP /21/ , ,577 AEP /3/ , ,886 AEP /26/ , ,920 AEP /1/ , ,839 AEP /8/ , ,301 AEP /9/ , ,834 AEP /10/ , ,887 AEP /23/ , ,511 AEP /21/ , ,553 AEP /6/ , ,516 AEP /18/ , ,963 AEP /22/ , ,421 AEP /29/ , ,888 AEP /11/ , ,504 31

32 Unrestricted Peak Loads with Estimated Solar Back-cast Unrestricted Peak Loads with Estimated Solar Back-casted Value APS Zone Zone Year Date Hour Ending Unrestricted Load (MW) Unrestricted Load with the addition of the APS /22/ , ,314 APS /6/ , ,788 APS /26/ , ,546 APS /9/ , ,265 APS /29/ , ,340 APS /14/ , ,183 APS /9/ , ,996 APS /26/ , ,824 APS /2/ , ,734 APS /8/ , ,638 APS /9/ , ,432 APS /10/ , ,871 APS /23/ , ,533 APS /21/ , ,977 APS /29/ , ,545 APS /18/ , ,687 APS /23/ , ,090 APS /17/ , ,266 APS /25/ , ,758 32

33 Unrestricted Peak Loads with Estimated Solar Back-cast Unrestricted Peak Loads with Estimated Solar Back-casted Value ATSI Zone Zone Year Date Hour Ending Unrestricted Load (MW) Unrestricted Load with the addition of the ATSI /21/ ,657-11,657 ATSI /30/ ,713-12,713 ATSI /14/ ,959-11,959 ATSI /8/ ,145-13,145 ATSI /1/ , ,299 ATSI /14/ , ,165 ATSI /3/ , ,310 ATSI /26/ , ,578 ATSI /1/ , ,804 ATSI /24/ , ,536 ATSI /9/ , ,972 ATSI /10/ , ,310 ATSI /23/ , ,179 ATSI /21/ , ,039 ATSI /17/ , ,521 ATSI /18/ , ,498 ATSI /5/ , ,387 ATSI /29/ , ,368 ATSI /11/ , ,779 33

34 Unrestricted Peak Loads with Estimated Solar Back-cast Unrestricted Peak Loads with Estimated Solar Back-casted Value BGE Zone Zone Year Date Hour Ending Unrestricted Load (MW) Unrestricted Load with the addition of the BGE /25/ ,045-6,045 BGE /6/ ,670-6,670 BGE /9/ ,015-6,015 BGE /9/ ,867-6,867 BGE /29/ ,897-6,897 BGE /22/ ,572-6,572 BGE /18/ ,267-6,267 BGE /27/ , ,376 BGE /3/ , ,484 BGE /8/ , ,478 BGE /10/ , ,150 BGE /10/ , ,597 BGE /7/ , ,126 BGE /22/ , ,622 BGE /18/ , ,450 BGE /19/ , ,056 BGE /2/ , ,683 BGE /20/ , ,527 BGE /25/ , ,041 34

35 Unrestricted Peak Loads with Estimated Solar Back-cast Unrestricted Peak Loads with Estimated Solar Back-casted Value COMED Zone Zone Year Date Hour Ending Unrestricted Load (MW) Unrestricted Load with the addition of the COMED /25/ ,510-19,510 COMED /30/ ,157-22,157 COMED /15/ , ,143 COMED /9/ , ,574 COMED /1/ , ,804 COMED /21/ , ,054 COMED /3/ , ,794 COMED /9/ , ,635 COMED /1/ , ,995 COMED /7/ , ,970 COMED /16/ , ,975 COMED /25/ , ,218 COMED /12/ , ,915 COMED /20/ , ,753 COMED /6/ , ,611 COMED /18/ , ,298 COMED /22/ , ,730 COMED /3/ , ,168 COMED /11/ , ,198 35

36 Unrestricted Peak Loads with Estimated Solar Back-cast Unrestricted Peak Loads with Estimated Solar Back-casted Value DAYTON Zone Zone Year Date Hour Ending Unrestricted Load (MW) Unrestricted Load with the addition of the DAYTON /21/ ,303-3,303 DAYTON /30/ ,460-3,460 DAYTON /15/ ,176-3,176 DAYTON /8/ ,436-3,436 DAYTON /10/ ,283-3,283 DAYTON /26/ ,366-3,366 DAYTON /22/ ,280-3,280 DAYTON /25/ ,725-3,725 DAYTON /1/ ,706-3,706 DAYTON /8/ , ,748 DAYTON /3/ , ,493 DAYTON /25/ , ,327 DAYTON /10/ , ,387 DAYTON /21/ , ,644 DAYTON /28/ , ,496 DAYTON /10/ , ,402 DAYTON /26/ , ,230 DAYTON /29/ , ,274 DAYTON /25/ , ,333 36

37 Unrestricted Peak Loads with Estimated Solar Back-cast Unrestricted Peak Loads with Estimated Solar Back-casted Value DEOK Zone Zone Year Date Hour Ending Unrestricted Load (MW) Unrestricted Load with the addition of the DEOK /25/ ,851-4,851 DEOK /21/ ,156-5,156 DEOK /31/ , ,872 DEOK /7/ , ,197 DEOK /5/ , ,423 DEOK /26/ , ,227 DEOK /13/ , ,106 DEOK /25/ , ,756 DEOK /3/ , ,595 DEOK /23/ , ,769 DEOK /3/ , ,403 DEOK /10/ , ,014 DEOK /4/ , ,546 DEOK /21/ , ,601 DEOK /29/ , ,449 DEOK /10/ , ,150 DEOK /27/ , ,041 DEOK /29/ , ,132 DEOK /25/ , ,319 37

38 Unrestricted Peak Loads with Estimated Solar Back-cast Unrestricted Peak Loads with Estimated Solar Back-casted Value DLCO Zone Zone Year Date Hour Ending Unrestricted Load (MW) Unrestricted Load with the addition of the DLCO /7/ ,484-2,484 DLCO /6/ ,756-2,756 DLCO /14/ ,673-2,673 DLCO /9/ ,771-2,771 DLCO /2/ ,917-2,917 DLCO /21/ ,686-2,686 DLCO /9/ , ,646 DLCO /12/ , ,885 DLCO /3/ , ,053 DLCO /24/ , ,890 DLCO /9/ , ,822 DLCO /17/ , ,732 DLCO /23/ , ,889 DLCO /22/ , ,070 DLCO /29/ , ,055 DLCO /18/ , ,952 DLCO /1/ , ,694 DLCO /29/ , ,805 DLCO /11/ , ,798 38

39 Unrestricted Peak Loads with Estimated Solar Back-cast Unrestricted Peak Loads with Estimated Solar Back-casted Value DPL Zone Zone Year Date Hour Ending Unrestricted Load (MW) Unrestricted Load with the addition of the DPL /23/ ,277-3,277 DPL /6/ ,714-3,714 DPL /7/ , ,476 DPL /9/ , ,793 DPL /29/ , ,905 DPL /26/ , ,687 DPL /20/ , ,641 DPL /27/ , ,235 DPL /3/ , ,328 DPL /8/ , ,349 DPL /10/ , ,016 DPL /21/ , ,845 DPL /6/ , ,057 DPL /22/ , ,348 DPL /18/ , ,170 DPL /18/ , ,036 DPL /2/ , ,893 DPL /20/ , ,871 DPL /25/ , ,172 39

40 Unrestricted Peak Loads with Estimated Solar Back-cast Unrestricted Peak Loads with Estimated Solar Back-casted Value EKPC Zone Zone Year Date Hour Ending Unrestricted Load (MW) Unrestricted Load with the addition of the EKPC /21/ ,486-1,486 EKPC /29/ ,657-1,657 EKPC /9/ ,760-1,760 EKPC /8/ ,805-1,805 EKPC /5/ ,911-1,911 EKPC /14/ ,804-1,804 EKPC /13/ ,676-1,676 EKPC /25/ ,894-1,894 EKPC /19/ ,884-1,884 EKPC /9/ ,003-2,003 EKPC /29/ , ,837 EKPC /10/ , ,783 EKPC /4/ , ,966 EKPC /11/ , ,945 EKPC /29/ , ,976 EKPC /16/ , ,901 EKPC /22/ , ,896 EKPC /29/ , ,920 EKPC /10/ , ,026 40

41 Unrestricted Peak Loads with Estimated Solar Back-cast Unrestricted Peak Loads with Estimated Solar Back-casted Value JCPL Zone Zone Year Date Hour Ending Unrestricted Load (MW) Unrestricted Load with the addition of the JCPL /22/ ,907-4,907 JCPL /6/ ,273-5,273 JCPL /7/ ,961-4,961 JCPL /9/ , ,826 JCPL /3/ , ,919 JCPL /26/ , ,668 JCPL /20/ , ,458 JCPL /27/ , ,442 JCPL /2/ , ,754 JCPL /8/ , ,317 JCPL /10/ , ,405 JCPL /10/ , ,744 JCPL /6/ , ,469 JCPL /22/ , ,731 JCPL /18/ , ,410 JCPL /19/ , ,482 JCPL /2/ , ,746 JCPL /20/ , ,886 JCPL /12/ , ,124 41

42 Unrestricted Peak Loads with Estimated Solar Back-cast Unrestricted Peak Loads with Estimated Solar Back-casted Value METED Zone Zone Year Date Hour Ending Unrestricted Load (MW) Unrestricted Load with the addition of the METED /26/ ,225-2,225 METED /19/ ,445-2,445 METED /9/ ,342-2,342 METED /9/ , ,600 METED /14/ , ,616 METED /21/ , ,513 METED /3/ , ,556 METED /4/ , ,862 METED /2/ , ,000 METED /8/ , ,995 METED /10/ , ,110 METED /10/ , ,839 METED /2/ , ,944 METED /22/ , ,220 METED /18/ , ,060 METED /18/ , ,020 METED /23/ , ,828 METED /17/ , ,811 METED /25/ , ,971 42

43 Unrestricted Peak Loads with Estimated Solar Back-cast Unrestricted Peak Loads with Estimated Solar Back-casted Value PECO Zone Zone Year Date Hour Ending Unrestricted Load (MW) Unrestricted Load with the addition of the PECO /26/ , ,108 PECO /6/ , ,230 PECO /9/ , ,333 PECO /9/ , ,186 PECO /14/ , ,164 PECO /26/ , ,696 PECO /20/ , ,567 PECO /27/ , ,847 PECO /3/ , ,995 PECO /8/ , ,850 PECO /10/ , ,837 PECO /10/ , ,009 PECO /7/ , ,913 PECO /22/ , ,297 PECO /18/ , ,749 PECO /18/ , ,670 PECO /2/ , ,272 PECO /20/ , ,114 PECO /25/ , ,395 43

44 Unrestricted Peak Loads with Estimated Solar Back-cast Unrestricted Peak Loads with Estimated Solar Back-casted Value PENLC Zone Zone Year Date Hour Ending Unrestricted Load (MW) Unrestricted Load with the addition of the PENLC /25/ ,419-2,419 PENLC /6/ ,489-2,489 PENLC /31/ , ,482 PENLC /9/ , ,708 PENLC /29/ , ,706 PENLC /14/ , ,623 PENLC /9/ , ,638 PENLC /4/ , ,875 PENLC /2/ , ,069 PENLC /8/ , ,902 PENLC /9/ , ,880 PENLC /17/ , ,817 PENLC /8/ , ,970 PENLC /22/ , ,130 PENLC /17/ , ,914 PENLC /18/ , ,089 PENLC /1/ , ,789 PENLC /17/ , ,821 PENLC /11/ , ,912 44

45 Unrestricted Peak Loads with Estimated Solar Back-cast Unrestricted Peak Loads with Estimated Solar Back-casted Value PEPCO Zone Zone Year Date Hour Ending Unrestricted Load (MW) Unrestricted Load with the addition of the PEPCO /26/ ,807-5,807 PEPCO /6/ ,223-6,223 PEPCO /12/ ,721-5,721 PEPCO /9/ ,399-6,399 PEPCO /29/ ,513-6,513 PEPCO /22/ , ,166 PEPCO /17/ , ,086 PEPCO /27/ , ,766 PEPCO /3/ , ,947 PEPCO /8/ , ,892 PEPCO /10/ , ,752 PEPCO /10/ , ,325 PEPCO /7/ , ,720 PEPCO /22/ , ,029 PEPCO /18/ , ,765 PEPCO /19/ , ,544 PEPCO /2/ , ,362 PEPCO /23/ , ,289 PEPCO /25/ , ,674 45

46 Unrestricted Peak Loads with Estimated Solar Back-cast Unrestricted Peak Loads with Estimated Solar Back-casted Value PL Zone Zone Year Date Hour Ending Unrestricted Load (MW) Unrestricted Load with the addition of the PL /22/ ,809-5,809 PL /6/ ,415-6,415 PL /26/ ,068-6,068 PL /9/ ,790-6,790 PL /29/ ,946-6,946 PL /14/ ,480-6,480 PL /3/ ,446-6,446 PL /27/ , ,176 PL /2/ , ,688 PL /8/ , ,304 PL /10/ , ,370 PL /17/ , ,853 PL /7/ , ,221 PL /22/ , ,562 PL /18/ , ,330 PL /18/ , ,355 PL /23/ , ,757 PL /8/ , ,744 PL /14/ , ,891 46

47 Unrestricted Peak Loads with Estimated Solar Back-cast Unrestricted Peak Loads with Estimated Solar Back-casted Value PS Zone Zone Year Date Hour Ending Unrestricted Load (MW) Unrestricted Load with the addition of the PS /22/ ,291-9,291 PS /6/ ,225-10,225 PS /26/ ,369-9,369 PS /9/ , ,426 PS /14/ , ,188 PS /26/ , ,855 PS /9/ , ,429 PS /27/ , ,124 PS /2/ , ,234 PS /8/ , ,485 PS /10/ , ,726 PS /21/ , ,705 PS /6/ , ,797 PS /22/ , ,072 PS /18/ , ,647 PS /19/ , ,607 PS /2/ , ,666 PS /20/ , ,757 PS /12/ , ,946 47

48 Unrestricted Peak Loads with Estimated Solar Back-cast Unrestricted Peak Loads with Estimated Solar Back-casted Value RECO Zone Zone Year Date Hour Ending Unrestricted Load (MW) Unrestricted Load with the addition of the RECO /25/ RECO /6/ RECO /9/ RECO /10/ RECO /23/ RECO /26/ RECO /9/ RECO /27/ RECO /2/ RECO /10/ RECO /10/ RECO /17/ RECO /6/ RECO /22/ RECO /18/ RECO /18/ RECO /2/ RECO /20/ RECO /11/

49 Unrestricted Peak Loads with Estimated Solar Back-cast Unrestricted Peak Loads with Estimated Solar Back-casted Value UGI Zone Zone Year Date Hour Ending Unrestricted Load (MW) Unrestricted Load with the addition of the UGI /22/ UGI /6/ UGI /9/ UGI /9/ UGI /13/ UGI /26/ UGI /9/ UGI /26/ UGI /1/ UGI /10/ UGI /10/ UGI /17/ UGI /7/ UGI /22/ UGI /18/ UGI /18/ UGI /2/ UGI /8/ UGI /11/

50 Unrestricted Peak Loads with Estimated Solar Back-cast Unrestricted Peak Loads with Estimated Solar Back-casted Value VEPCO Zone Zone Year Date Hour Ending Unrestricted Load (MW) Unrestricted Load with the addition of the VEPCO /22/ ,231-15,231 VEPCO /6/ ,027-16,027 VEPCO /9/ , ,252 VEPCO /9/ , ,440 VEPCO /29/ , ,911 VEPCO /22/ , ,250 VEPCO /4/ , ,327 VEPCO /27/ , ,028 VEPCO /3/ , ,375 VEPCO /8/ , ,749 VEPCO /10/ , ,111 VEPCO /10/ , ,153 VEPCO /7/ , ,429 VEPCO /22/ , ,149 VEPCO /29/ , ,324 VEPCO /18/ , ,843 VEPCO /2/ , ,771 VEPCO /23/ , ,082 VEPCO /25/ , ,699 50

51 Distributed Solar Generation Forecast by Zone and State (only represents IHS Forecast) Annual Additions Zone State AE NJ AEP IN AEP KY AEP MI AEP OH AEP TN AEP VA AEP WV APS MD APS PA APS VA APS WV ATSI OH ATSI PA BGE MD COMED IL DAYTON OH DEOK KY DEOK OH DLCO PA DPL DE DPL MD DPL VA EKPC KY JCPL NJ METED PA PECO PA PENLC PA PEPCO DC PEPCO MD PL PA PS NJ RECO NJ UGI PA VEPCO NC VEPCO VA