How Storage Will Transform Electric Power Emissions and Markets. Roger Lueken & Jay Apt

Transcription

1 How Storage Will Transform Electric Power Emissions and Markets Roger Lueken & Jay Apt

2 The Problem Current electric power systems lack storage at all times, Generation = Load Market inefficiency $/MWh 5 am 5 pm Charging Discharging Recent advances may make bulk storage possible GW

3 Research Question How will bulk storage affect power systems? Storage changes market behavior Storage only used for arbitrage (reg market small) 4 perspectives: 1. Consumers 2. Generators 3. Storage operators 4. Emissions CO2, NOx, and SO2 Technique: Simulate 2010 PJM Interconnection energy market with and without storage.

4 Effect of transmission constraints 15:10, June 29, 2012 PJM edata System:

5 PJM reduced form topology Region 1 Region 3 Region 4 Region 5 Region 2

6 Unit commitment

7 Pumped storage Compressed air (CAES) Advanced batteries Lead acid Sodium sulfur Storage technologies AES Seneca Iowa Laurel stored Lake, Mt, energy USACE A123 park, Systems HowStuffWorks

8 Storage modeling

9 RESULTS

10 Storage benefits consumers $/MWh Reduced electricity prices Storage Discharging Operational savings Peak annual demand Capacity savings GW Consumer savings = Lower generator revenues

11 Total consumer savings Savings [$Billions] Lead acid Pumped hydro CAES Sodium sulfur Storage capacity [GW] Lead acid 87.5% RTE, 4 hr duration CAES 76.5% RTE, 20 hr duration Pumped hydro 80% RTE, 8 hr duration Sodium sulfur 75% RTE, 6 hr duration

12 Net consumer savings Net savings [$Billions] Storage capacity [GW] CAES Lead acid Sodium sulfur Pumped hydro Consumer benefits storage cost

13 Sensitivity analysis Savings [$Billions] 8 hr duration 100% RTE Lead acid 70% RTE 2 hr duration Storage capacity [GW] Lead acid (87.5% RTE, 4 hour duration)

14 Storage replaces peaking plants Avoided capacity [GW] Gas combined cycle Oil/gas steam Gas combustion turbine Lead acid storage capacity [GW] Similar for other technologies Total PJM capacity: 155 GW 2010/2011 capacity payment: $175/MW day savings reach $2B

15 Generator output & revenues /Gas Steam Lead acid, 37 GW Percent Change

16 Storage is unprofitable Storage capacity [GW] CAES Pumped hydro Sodium sulfur Lead acid NPV [$/kwh capacity] 8% blended cost of capital, 10% discount rate

17 Storage marginally increases emissions Storage Emissions Increase (%) Capacity [GW] CO2 NOx SO % 0.8% 1.6% 34 1% 1.2% 3.1% % 1.5% 3.7% Due to storage inefficiency & fuel switching Does not include startup emissions Lead acid (87.5% RTE, 4 hour duration)

18 How about other scenarios? Scenario Consumer savings [$Billions] 2010 (base case) 3.2 5x wind 3.0 $100/ton CO x 2010 gas price 6.4 Lead acid (87.5% RTE, 4 hour duration), 13.6 GW

19 Policy Implications Pumped hydro & CAES provide net consumer benefits Advanced batteries do not No storage is profitable Market changes needed to encourage deployment Updated market rules Direct subsidies to storage operators Storage operated by PJM

20 Work sponsored by Carnegie Electric Industry Center members Roger Lueken Jay Apt Questions?

21 PHORUM model Plan to release as public, open source project Documented and streamlined code Useful for investigating effect of policies, new technologies, fuel price, etc Goal users will continue to improve and expand model If interested, me:

22 BACKUP

23 Validation BAU: 2010 day ahead market without storage Compare computed LMPs to actual 2010 LMPs Region 1 Region 2 Region 3 Region 4 Region 5 Total Hourly Error (%) Mean 1% 0% 8% 5% 15% 0% Std Dev 25% 24% 24% 24% 21% 23% Arbitrage Error [$/MWh] Mean Std Dev

24 Data Generator data EPA databases (egrid & NEEDS) National Emissions Inventory (NEI) Continuous Emission Monitoring System (CEMS) Hourly data (PJM databases) Load Transmission capacity Wind generation Imports / exports

25 Technologies Technology Duration (hours) % RTE (total cycles) Pumped hydro 8 80% (>13,000) CAES % (>13,000) Sodium sulfur 6 75% (4,500) Lead acid % (4,500) Cost ($/kwh) Electric Energy Storage Technology Options: A White Paper Primer on Applications, Costs, and Benefits. EPRI, Palo Alto, CA, Eyer, J., and G. Corey. Energy Storage for the Electricity Grid: Benefits and Market Potential Assessment Guide. Sandia National Laboratories Report, SAND , Albuquerque, New Mexico (2010).

26 The PJM Interconnection PJM Control Area Transmission Zones: pjm/pjm zones.ashx

27 PJM edata. selectedindex=2 Transmission and Voltage Emergencies; PJM 2011; curriculum/ip ops 101/ops101 transemer.ashx

28 Source: Ventex Velocity Suite PJM Interconnection

29 LMP Correlations within regions COMED AEP DAY DUQ APS PENELEC BGE PEPCO PPL METED PSEG PECO JCPL RECO DPL AECO DOM COMED AEP TCR1 DAY DUQ APS PENELEC TCR2 BGE PEPCO PPL TCR3 METED PSEG PECO TCR4 JCPL RECO DPL AECO TCR5 DOM

30 Operational savings Savings [$Millions] Lead acid Pumped hydro CAES Sodium sulfur Lead acid 87.5% RTE, 4 hr duration CAES 76.5% RTE, 20 hr duration Storage capacity [GW]

31 Can technology improvements help? Change in consumer benefit from 10% change Lead acid (87.5% RTE, 4 hour duration), 13.6 GW

32 Dispatch nonlinearities

33 Day boundary problem 4 variables passed between days: Gen on/off state How long gen must stay on/off Power output Storage state of charge

34 Effect of considering utilization +10% 10% 10% +10% +10% 10% 10% RTE Charge/discharge speed Max cycles +10% +10% Capital Cost

35 Marginal Environmental Damages Storage Emissions Increase (%) Capacity [GW] CO2 NOx SO2 Env. Damage Increase [$M] (%) 7 0.5% 0.8% 1.6% 800 (1.6%) 34 1% 1.2% 3.1% 1,400 (3%) % 1.5% 3.7% 1,700 (3.6%) Lead acid (87.5% RTE, 4 hour duration)

36 Sensitivity Analysis Energy savings [$Billions] 100% RTE 2 hr duration 8 hr duration 70% RTE Storage capacity [GW]

37 Sensitivity Analysis Capacity savings [$Billions] 8 hr duration 100% RTE 2 hr duration 70% RTE Storage capacity [GW]