GridView An Analytic Tool for. ABB Inc. Electric Systems Consulting. Market Simulation & Asset Performance Evaluations. ABB Inc.

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1 ABB Inc. Electric Systems Consulting GridView An Analytic Tool for Market Simulation & Asset Performance Evaluations

2 Outline What is GridView about? GridView Capabilities and Functional Highlights Demonstration of GridView s Graphical User Interface (GUI) and Database preparation process A Case Study for the NYCA System Q & A

3 Where is the opportunity? Transmission Expansion IPP Plant Siting 15 $/MWh 25 $/MWh A 10 $/MWh D 2 $/MWh 3 $/MWh 7 $/MWh B 17 $/MWh 1 $/MWh C 18 $/MWH

4 The Starting Point: GridView ABB Inc. Goal: Combine Power System Details with Market and Economic Aspects Supply Model: Supply Model: Demand Demand Model: Generator Model: Generator Capacity Capacity Location Heat Location Heat rate rate dependent Fuel cost/operation dependent Fuel cost/operation load Constraint load Constraint Detailed Detailed transmission transmission system model Market system model Market Scenarios Scenarios Competitive Competitive Energy Energy Market Market Simulation Simulation Engine Engine Generator Power System Generator Power System Utilization Utilization and Reliability and Reliability Asset Asset Value Measures Value Measures Transmission Transmission Line Line Utilization Bottlenecks Utilization Bottlenecks Level & Level & Economic Economic value of expansion value of expansion Locational Locational Market Market Clearing Clearing Price Price

5 Simple Poor PSI Ease Accuracy ABB Inc. Power Market Simulation Models Supply Curve Ignores transmission Difficult Bubble View Major interconnects only WVPA LG&EE CG&E OVEC KUEN EKPC Detailed View Very complex Good NOLOAD 217 NUKE-A 218 WESTIE MIDCOAL 216ADDON 225 VIKING MIDCOALP CONDENS 214 WESTIE MARYLOAD 104 NUKE-B 221 HYDRO 222 MIDTIE CARIOCA 220 MIDTIE ANNELOAD 105 EASTIE BIGCOAL 223 BIGCOIL 213 EASTIE REACTOR 106 ERIKLOAD 108 COAL-A 101 COAL-B 102 MIDOIL 107 GridView is a detailed model with a nice Graphical User Interface!

6 What s Behind? Control Variables Min { } c G + c D + c θ c T g + d θ t s.t. G = L (Real Power Balance) G D θ Min Min Min G G D D θ T T θ Max Max Max (Real Power Gen. Limits) (Dispatchable Demands) (Phase Shifter Limits) Limits (Transmission Constraints)

7 Transmission Constraints Transmission facility (lines and transformers) thermal limits using normal ratings Transmission facility limits considering selected critical contingencies using emergency ratings (LTE or STE) Interfaces/flowgates limits and nomograms due to voltage and stability problems Transmission maintenance scheduling Monte Carlo simulation (forced outages) for major Interfaces & flowgates

8 Nomograms ax + by + cz +... L

9 Price & Performance Evaluation Model ABB Inc. Generation size bids availability Transmission power flow constraints operating rules FTR/Tariffs Load hourly variation location growth History Information Optimal Load Flow Market Modeling Market Simulation Opportunity Analysis Scenarios Workably Competitive System Operating Cases (Non-cost issues) Probability Distribution Curves Revenues (Energy & Capacity Sales) Values of A.S. Flows / Congestion Goal: Combine Power Systems Analysis with Accurate Economic Models Price Volatility (real-time or off-line)

10 Modeling Capabilities Transmission - large detailed system such as the WECC - transmission constraints explicitly modeled Generation Load - generators as represented in transmission model - generation costs - fixed and variable production costs - generation scheduling (maintenance and forced outages) - individual generator capacity adjustment - individual bus load - hourly load variations based on historical data Transmission Tariffs - directly included in dispatch decision

11 GridView Outputs Market Simulation ABB Inc. Market Clearing Prices (LMP or Zonal Pricing) Hourly and duration Individual bus, area average Generation Individual or area plant production Individual or area plant production costs Individual or area plant revenue Individual or area generation capacity and reserve margin Reliability indices Transmission Individual line or interface power flows Transmission congestion cost and utilization measures Contingency analysis and reliability indices Budget constrained transmission expansion plans

12 GridView Outputs Monte Carlo Simulation and Contingency Analysis Frequency, duration and probability of a contingency event Statistic information from Monte Carlo simulations Mean, median, standard deviation, confidence level, etc. Loss of Load Expectation Overloads, and islands under contingency conditions Remedial actions and system conditions after corrections System generation cost before and after contingency or remedial actions ABB Inc. System load payment before and after contingency or remedial actions.

13 GridView Functional Highlights Power Market Simulator - combines gen. & transmission engineering and financial data - simulates competitive market behavior - scenario (what if) analysis Opportunity Identification, Evaluation and Justification - generation and transmission expansion projects Market Position and Asset Worth Evaluation - existing plants, refurbished plants, new plants - transmission expansion sensitivity index Transmission Economics and Planning - identify low and high cost areas (potential customers) ABB Inc. - identify transmission constraints that might exist and impede transactions, and the costs of the transmission congestion

14 Volatility Modeling for Energy Markets 1000 Actual PJM Hourly Average LMP in Volatility Prices LMP Sorted LMP ($/MWH) Cost-based Prices Discounted Prices Hour

15 PJM Simulation Results Cost-based Simulation Results for PJM 2002 Actual LMP in PJM 2002 PJM 2002 Load

16 Simulated PJM Eastern Interface in 2002

17 Merchant Plant Evaluation - Energy Sales 70 Market Clearing Price Duration: Plant X $/MWh 40 Profit Dispatch Cost for Plant X Hours Running Hours

18 Capacity Market Assessment

19 Top 5 Most Congested NY Interfaces * Ranking Interface Name Average Power Flow (MW) Shadow Price ($/MW) Congestion Cost (k$) Congestion Hours (Hrs) Loading Factor 1 SPR/DUNW SOUTH UPNY CONED CONED-LILCO WEST CENTRAL UPNY SENY ABB Inc. * This is a sample report from the simulation result of year 2003 based on ABB s NYISO database.

20 Market Studies Benefits analysis and costs evaluation for RTOs and stakeholders Congestion management and value of congestion relief Energy market price forecasting & price volatility analysis Evaluation for forward energy contracts Capacity market studies Market power analysis and market monitoring Market performance benchmark Alternative market design and modeling NERC regional generation, transmission and load data collection and forecast

21 Generation Studies Generation plant siting optimization Generation bidding strategy assessment Generation asset evaluation and management Generation portfolio optimization and risk management Generation plant performance and efficiency analysis System impact and facility study for generator interconnection

22 Transmission Studies Transmission asset utilization monitoring Transmission bottleneck identification Transmission congestion assessment Transmission expansion planning and alternative evaluation Identification and economic assessment of merchant transmission projects

23 Program Services Program installation and setup Customer-site training ABB-site training in US Limited software warranty and customer support Database creation Consulting services Software customization

24 GridView s User Interface and Database preparation process User Friendly Graphical User Interface (GUI) by Visual Basic External dataset is managed by Microsoft Excel Spreadsheets and sanity checked by GUI when imported into GridView database Internal Database is managed by Microsoft ACCESS Compatible with PSS/E formatted load flow and contingency files

25 Demo Outline - Input Data Export/Import Function Generator General Information Fuel Price Data Editing Generator Maintenance Scheduling Area/Regional Load Adjustment Line Monitoring Interface Monitoring Contingency Monitoring (Security Constraints) Simulation Parameter Network Data after Imported from PSS/E Generator Information from RDI PowerDat (Matching with Information in the PSS/E Load Flow File) Contingency Events

26 Demo Outline - Output Hourly snapshot in PSS/E format for further external analysis Load bus market clearing prices Generator bus report Transmission line utilization Interface utilization Load Area Summary User Defined Zone Summary Regional Summary System Summary Visualization of System Summary Contingency Analysis Results

27 A Case Study Economic Evaluation of Transmission Congestion Relief for the NYCA System ABB Inc. Reference [1] - Economic Evaluation of Transmission Congestion Relief Based on Power Market Simulations, IEEE PES General Meeting, Toronto, Canada, July 2003.

28 Questions for the Case Study Where are the bottlenecks? How often does transmission congestion occur? What are the economic consequences of inadequate transmission capacity? Which interface or path constraints are more attractive for improvement? What system expansion or upgrade options are available? What is the market and system impact of any proposed system expansion project?

29 NYCA System ABB Inc.

30 In-City Requirements

31 NYCA Transmission Network and Interfaces ABB Inc. Transmission Bottlenecks.

32 NYC NYC is right inside the transmission congestion.

33 NY State Price Forecast ABB Inc. Average summer (June~August) prices in NY state forecasted by Dr. David Pattern to NY-ISO.

34 NYCA System Congestion Costs Case Solution Approach Production Cost (M$/yr) Congestion Cost (M$/yr) (%) unlimited network capacity w/ transmission constraints w/ security constraints ABB Inc. Reference [1] - Economic Evaluation of Transmission Congestion Relief Based on Power Market Simulations, IEEE PES General Meeting, Toronto, Canada, July 2003.

35 NYCA Zonal Average LMPs NYCA Zonal Average LMP ($/MWh) transmission constrained 50 security constrained Capital NY City West Central Dunwoodie Genessee Hudson Long Island Millwood Mohawk North ABB Inc. Reference [1] - Economic Evaluation of Transmission Congestion Relief Based on Power Market Simulations, IEEE PES General Meeting, Toronto, Canada, July 2003.

36 NYCA Interface Utilization Analysis Interface Name Loading Factor (%) Expansion Value ($/MW-yr) Path Cost (M$/yr) Congestion Hours (Hrs/yr) CENTRAL EAST MOSES SOUTH TOTAL EAST CONED-LILCO LILCO-IMPORT DYSINGER EAST WEST CENTRAL SPR/DUNW SOUTH UPNY SENY UPNY CONED ABB Inc. Reference [1] - Economic Evaluation of Transmission Congestion Relief Based on Power Market Simulations, IEEE PES General Meeting, Toronto, Canada, July 2003.

37 NYCA Interface Congestion Analysis Interface Name CONED-LILCO WEST CENTRAL SPR/DUNW SOUTH UPNY SENY UPNY CONED System Peak Hour (on/off) Expansion Value ($/MW-yr) Path Cost (M$/yr) Congestion Hours (Hrs/yr) on off on off on off on off on off ABB Inc. Reference [1] - Economic Evaluation of Transmission Congestion Relief Based on Power Market Simulations, IEEE PES General Meeting, Toronto, Canada, July 2003.

38 Heavily Loaded NYCA Interface Components From Bus To Bus Congestion Hours (Hrs/yr) Loading Factor (%) Interface Name SPRBROOK W 49 ST SPR/DUNW SOUTH DUNWODIE RAINEY SPR/DUNW SOUTH TREMONT PARK TR SPR/DUNW SOUTH DUNWODIE DUN NO SPR/DUNW SOUTH SPRBROOK REACBUS CONED-LILCO DUNWODIE SHORE RD CONED-LILCO From Bus To Bus Expansion Value Path Cost Interface Name ($/MW-yr) (M$/yr) SPRBROOK W 49 ST SPR/DUNW SOUTH DUNWODIE RAINEY SPR/DUNW SOUTH TREMONT PARK TR SPR/DUNW SOUTH DUNWODIE DUN NO SPR/DUNW SOUTH SPRBROOK REACBUS CONED-LILCO DUNWODIE SHORE RD CONED-LILCO ABB Inc. Reference [1] - Economic Evaluation of Transmission Congestion Relief Based on Power Market Simulations, IEEE PES General Meeting, Toronto, Canada, July 2003.

39 NYCA Interface Upgrade Options Option Congestion Cost Production Capacity Improvement Savings Cost Interface MW (M$/yr) (M$/yr) (%) 1 WEST CENTRAL CONED-LILCO SPR/DUNW SOUTH SPR/DUNW SOUTH ABB Inc. Reference [1] - Economic Evaluation of Transmission Congestion Relief Based on Power Market Simulations, IEEE PES General Meeting, Toronto, Canada, July 2003.

40 Impact of SPR/DUNW Interface Upgrades Load Area Total Generation (MWh) Generation Reveune (M$) Generation Cost (M$) Load Payment (M$) Average LMP ($/MWh) Capital NY City West Central Dunwoodie Genessee Hudson Valley Long Island Millwood Mohawk Valley North Total ABB Inc. Reference [1] - Economic Evaluation of Transmission Congestion Relief Based on Power Market Simulations, IEEE PES General Meeting, Toronto, Canada, July 2003.

41 Interconnection Options and Benefits Production Congestion Cost Option NY City Injection Cost Savings Location MW (M$/yr) (M$/yr) (%) 1 W49 ST RAINEY ABB Inc. Reference [1] - Economic Evaluation of Transmission Congestion Relief Based on Power Market Simulations, IEEE PES General Meeting, Toronto, Canada, July 2003.

42 47% 62% 44% Fairfield Norwalk LMP Forecast Congestion Assessment Line Loading Evaluation $42.5 Bergen 40% 10% ABB Consulting - 1 $ % New York $ % Queens 96% Nassau $45.2 ABB Inc. - Around New York City - Tuesday, July 15, 2005 ($/MWh) $42.6 LMP and Transmission Utilization Screening

43 Contact Information ABB Consulting Business Unit: Dr. Henry Chao (for General Information): Tel: (919) Fax: (919) Dr. Lan Trinh (for Technical Consultation): Tel: (919) Fax: (919) Mailing Address: 940 Main Campus Drive, Suite 300 Raleigh, NC U.S.A.

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