2013 CARIS Phase 1 Report
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1 2013 CARIS Phase 1 Report Timothy Duffy Manager, Economic Planning New York Independent System Operator Business Issues Committee September 18, 2013 KCC 2013 New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY
2 Topics Background and Objectives of NYISO s Economic Planning Process (CARIS) 2013 CARIS Phase 1 Development 2013 CARIS Phase 1 Results Next Steps 2
3 Background NYISO s Two-Year Comprehensive System Planning Process (CSPP) Part 1 Comprehensive Reliability Planning Process Reliability Needs Assessment (RNA) Comprehensive Reliability Plan (CRP) Part 2 - Economic Planning Process or Congestion Assessment and Resource Integration Study (CARIS) Phase 1 Study Phase Phase 2 Project Phase (for specific projects) 3
4 NYISO CSPP 4
5 CARIS Phase 1 Objectives Identify and report congestion 5-year historic congestion 10-year projected congestion Provide information to stakeholders, developers & other interested parties Select top congested transmission elements Project benefits of relieving the top 3 congested elements or groupings using generic solutions Identify factors that produce or increase congestion 5
6 CARIS Phase 2 Objectives Provide a process to evaluate specific projects designed to reduce congestion identified in CARIS Phase 1 Additional CARIS Studies are available to all interested parties and for all solution types Actual Project Studies for regulated economic transmission projects Only qualified transmission projects may be evaluated Cost allocation and cost recovery proceeds through the NYISO tariff for qualified transmission projects that receive 80 % vote of the identified beneficiaries 6
7 CARIS Phase 1 Process 7
8 CARIS Phase 1 Development Starting point for 2013 CARIS Phase 1 base case was the 2012 CRP Base case assumptions are developed for the Study Period ( ) pursuant to CARIS procedures and in collaboration with stakeholders at ESPWG 2013 Gold Book Load and Capacity Forecasts Fuel price and emission cost forecast were also locked down as of May 1, 2013 Transmission taken from the 2012 CRP with actual operating limits Resource changes were implemented pursuant to base case inclusion screening rules 8
9 CARIS Phase 1 Development Other notable Base Case assumptions: Athens SPS in service for 10-year study period (consistent with new National Grid-Athens agreement) National CO2 program projected to be implemented in 2020 impacting CO2 emissions allowance costs for non-rggi states (and Ontario) MATS program projected to be implemented in 2016 impacting SO2 emissions allowance costs for the US regions Incorporated MBS and RBS solutions from 2012 CRP (as required to maintain reliable system) Astoria Repowering project (500 MW unit, 100 MW retired) (MBS) Astoria Repowering project (500 MW) unit, 495 MW retired) (MBS) Generic Additions (100 MW, each, in G, J and K) (RBS) MW Increase in UPNY-SENY Transfer Limit (RBS) Cayuga 1 and 2 modeled in-service through study period; Dunkirk 1 retired in 2013; Dunkirk 2 in 2015 Modeling based on whether affected Transmission Owner had submitted firm plans for transmission upgrades to address the identified reliability issues as part of its 2013 Gold Book submission 9
10 CARIS Phase 1 Development Notable modeling changes from 2011 CARIS: Latest GE MAPS Version E 05/03/13 was used for production cost simulation. The IMO-MISO loop flow limit was updated to the historic limits scheduled in SCUC (+150MW to - 350MW counter clockwise) Modeling algorithm for the Ramapo PARS was adjusted to reflect revised NYISO-PJM Joint Operating Agreement, directing that 61% of AC flows occur across Ramapo beginning Added an additional natural gas pricing point for Midstate area (Zones F-I) with fuel costs proxied by Tennessee Zone 6 hub price. The Downstate natural gas price forecast also accounts in the near-term for the completed construction of the Spectra pipeline and the associated increase in supply to the region. 10
11 CARIS Phase 1 Performance Base Case Congestion Assessment Key Metric Demand$ Congestion 5-year historic Demand$ Congestion Taken from NYISO s quarterly congestion reporting data posted on NYISO website 10-year projected congestion Apply 10-year production costing model database (base case) General Electric s Multi-Area Production Simulation (MAPS) software 11
12 Historic Congestion Historic Demand$ Congestion by Constrained Paths (nominal $M) 12
13 Projected Congestion Projection of Future Demand$ Congestion by Constrained Path (nominal $M) Nominal Value ($) CENTRAL EAST $ 306 $ 340 $ 396 $ 334 $ 427 $ 445 $ 506 $ 360 $ 465 $ 455 LEEDS PLEASANT VALLEY $ 150 $ 148 $ 146 $ 103 $ 112 $ 101 $ 123 $ 132 $ 146 $ 109 DUNWOODIE SHORE ROAD $ 19 $ 18 $ 20 $ 22 $ 23 $ 29 $ 36 $ 40 $ 44 $ 51 GREENWOOD $ 2 $ 3 $ 4 $ 4 $ 6 $ 8 $ 11 $ 11 $ 14 $ 17 NEW SCOTLAND LEEDS $ 22 $ 14 $ 10 $ 5 $ 2 $ 1 $ 5 $ 13 $ 8 $ 22 MOTTHAVEN RAINEY $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 $ 0 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - MOTTHAVEN DUNWOODIE $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - RAINEY VERNON $ 0 $ 0 $ 1 $ (0) $ - $ - $ 0 $ (0) $ 0 $ 0 VOLNEY SCRIBA $ 22 $ 22 $ 25 $ 31 $ 35 $ 41 $ 46 $ 34 $ 43 $ 41 HUNTLEY PACKARD $ 13 $ 12 $ 18 $ 20 $ 23 $ 26 $ 24 $ 33 $ 40 $ 42 13
14 Rank and Group Elements Initially rank elements based upon combined 15-years of historic and projected congestion values Relaxation and grouping process follows Top elements are relaxed to identify potential grouping of elements for the three CARIS studies Groupings are ranked in order of potential production cost savings 14
15 Ranking of Grouped Elements Key to Interfaces: CE = Central East NSL = New Scotland-Leeds LPV = Leeds-Pleasant Valley DSR = Dunwoodie-Shore Road Greenwood = Greenwood Load Pocket Lines 15
16 Selection of the Three Studies Selected based upon largest change in production costs Study 1: Central East New Scotland Pleasant Valley Study 2: Central East Study 3: New Scotland Pleasant Valley Congestion of the Top Three CARIS Studies (nominal $M) Study Study 1: Central East-New Scotland-Pleasant Valley Study 2: Central East Study 3: New Scotland-Pleasant Valley
17 Congestion on the Top Three CARIS Studies (Present Value in 2013 $M) 17
18 Applying Generic Solutions Implement transmission, generation and demand response, and energy efficiency generic solutions for all 3 studies Projects the potential benefits in terms of NYCA-wide production costs savings associated with relieving congestion with each solution type Benefit/Cost Ratios are reported for each solution Based upon the 10 years of projected NYCAwide Production Cost Savings (CARIS s primary metric) compared to the estimated 10 years of project costs for each solution 18
19 19
20 Benefit/Cost Analysis Benefit/Cost ratio is calculated as the ratio of Present Value of Production Cost Savings to the Present Value of Solution Costs Present Value of Production Cost Savings is the Present Value of the savings calculated over the Study Period using a discount rate of 7.33% Discount rate is equal to an average of the Transmission Owner s Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) as the discount rate (weighted by 2012 load (GWh)) Generic Solution Costs were compiled for this study from a variety of sources: Transmission costs were drawn from the 2011 CARIS study as reviewed and confirmed by National Grid. Generator costs were for a 1x1X1 combined cycle unit as presented in the 2013 Demand Curve Reset study. Energy Efficiency costs were based upon the budgeted costs and impacts contained in the NYSPSC Order on EEPS (October 2011) Demand Response costs were extracted from a study of Advanced Metering costs performed by KEMA 20
21 Benefit/Cost Analysis Generic Solution Costs are simplified estimates developed using low, mid and high unit cost estimates for each solution type For the Transmission and Generation Solution Costs, Overnight Costs are multiplied by a Capital Recovery Factor (CRF) Assumes a levelized generic carrying charge of 16% for transmission and generation solutions and a discount rate of 7.33%, resulting in the CRF of The Energy Efficiency Solution Costs reflect only the program costs and no customer-incurred implementation costs The Demand Response Solution Costs do not include any payments for participation in the NYISO s Demand-Side programs (i.e., as a Special Case Resource or Emergency Demand Response Provider) Feasibility of the solution is not evaluated On-going fixed operation and maintenance costs, return on investment, federal and state income taxes, property taxes, insurance, and depreciation are captured by the CRF 21
22 22
23 Production Cost Savings for Solution Cases Study Transmission Solution Ten-Year Production Cost Savings ($M) Demand Generation Solution Response Solution Energy Efficiency Solution Study 1: Central East-New Scotland-Pleasant Valley ,232 Study 2: Central East ,114 Study 3: New Scotland-Pleasant Valley ,214 23
24 Additional Benefit Metrics Additional Benefit Metrics estimate other benefits, for informational purposes, associated with the generic solutions For 2013 CARIS Phase 1, these include changes to generator payments, load payments, TCC payments, losses costs, ICAP costs, and emissions Additional benefit metrics report the change between the generic solutioncase value and the base case value over ten years 24
25 Additional Benefit Metrics LOAD PAYMENT NYCA LOAD PAYMENT EXPORT PAYMENT GENERATOR PAYMENT NYCA GENERATOR PAYMENT IMPORT PAYMENT TCC PAYMENT LOSSES COSTS TRANSMISSION SOLUTIONS Edic-New Scotland-Pleasant Valley $194 $67 $127 $1,382 $1,281 $101 ($1,430) ($316) Edic-New Scotland $193 $13 $180 $687 $541 $146 ($654) ($166) New Scotland-Pleasant Valley ($61) ($2) ($58) $309 $300 $9 ($413) ($139) GENERATION SOLUTIONS Pleasant Valley ($272) ($1,022) $750 $6 $408 ($402) ($217) ($14) New Scotland ($83) ($408) $324 ($369) ($215) ($153) $282 $41 Pleasant Valley ($272) ($1,022) $750 $6 $408 ($402) ($217) ($14) DEMAND RESPONSE SOLUTIONS F (200), G(200), J(800) ($96) ($126) $29 ($100) ($74) ($26) ($2) $5 F (200), G(200), J(200) ($47) ($60) $13 ($40) ($31) ($9) ($10) ($2) G(200), J(1,000) ($70) ($103) $33 ($86) ($60) ($27) $9 $3 ENERGY EFFICIENCY SOLUTIONS F (200), G(200), J(800) ($2,368) ($2,941) $573 ($2,173) ($1,827) ($346) ($129) ($209) F (200), G(200), J(200) ($1,208) ($1,495) $287 ($1,179) ($997) ($182) ($32) ($58) G(200), J(1,000) ($2,549) ($3,077) $528 ($2,253) ($1,906) ($347) ($216) ($214) 25
26 Additional Benefit Metrics SO2 CO2 NOx Study Generic Solutions Tons % Change Cost ($M) 1000 Tons % Change Cost ($M) Tons % Change Cost ($M) Transmission Study 1: CE-NS-PV Edic-New Scotland-Pleasant Valley 8, % $ % $6.4 1, % $0.2 Study 2: CE Edic-New Scotland 5, % $ % $5.3 2, % $0.1 Study 3: NS-PV New Scotland-Pleasant Valley 1, % $1.1-1, % -$5.3-1, % $0.0 Generation Study 1: CE-NS-PV Pleasant Valley -6, % -$3.6 9, % $68.4-6, % -$0.4 Study 2: CE New Scotland -3, % -$2.2 4, % $27.9-2, % -$0.2 Study 3: NS-PV Pleasant Valley -6, % -$3.6 9, % $68.4-6, % -$0.4 Demand Response Study 1: CE-NS-PV F (200), G (200), J (800) % -$ % $ % $0.0 Study 2: CE F (200), G (200), J (200) % -$ % -$ % $0.0 Study 3: NS-PV G (200), J (1000) % -$ % $ % $0.0 Energy Efficiency Study 1: CE-NS-PV F (200), G (200), J (800) -5, % -$3.4-16, % -$87.7-6, % -$0.4 Study 2: CE F (200), G (200), J (200) -2, % -$1.6-7, % -$43.6-3, % -$0.2 Study 3: NS-PV G (200), J (1000) -5, % -$4.0-16, % -$88.8-7, % -$0.4 26
27 Additional Benefit Metrics ICAP MW Impact MW Impact (MW) CARIS Solutions NY NYCA C LI Transmission Study #1 Generation 1, Central East-New Energy Scotland- Efficiency 1, Pleasant Valley Demand Response 1, Transmission (315) (85) (44) Generation Study #2 Energy Central East Efficiency Demand Study #3 New Scotland- Pleasant Valley Response Transmission Generation Energy Efficiency Demand Response ICAP $Impact ICAP Variant 1 ICAP Variant 2 Transmission Study 1: CE-NS-PV Edic-New Scotland-Pleasant Valley ($739) ($4,221) Study 2: CE Edic-New Scotland $302 $1,739 Study 3: NS-PV New Scotland-Pleasant Valley ($730) ($4,171) Generation Study 1: CE-NS-PV Pleasant Valley ($1,501) ($8,406) Study 2: CE New Scotland $0 $0 Study 3: NS-PV Pleasant Valley ($1,501) ($8,406) Demand Response Study 1: CE-NS-PV F (200), G (200), J (800) ($1,498) ($8,368) Study 2: CE F (200), G (200), J (200) ($672) ($3,841) Study 3: NS-PV G (200), J (1000) ($1,613) ($8,980) Energy Efficiency Study 1: CE-NS-PV F (200), G (200), J (800) ($1,536) ($8,572) Study 2: CE F (200), G (200), J (200) ($701) ($4,008) Study 3: NS-PV G (200), J (1000) ($1,642) ($9,135) 27
28 2013 CARIS 1 Scenarios NYISO selected scenarios in consultation with ESPWG to: Identify factors that might produce or increase congestion Address effects of changes in variables used in base case assumptions Simulations performed to show change in congestion and other metrics for the Study Period Ten Scenarios were studied 28
29 2013 CARIS 1 Scenarios Scenario Implementation of Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) Higher Load Forecast Lower Load Forecast Full Main Tier RPS and Full EEPS Goals Achievement Athens SPS Out of Service Higher Natural Gas Prices Lower Natural Gas Prices Lower CO 2 Emission costs Higher Natural Gas costs in Midstate Scenario Matrix Variables Increases in NO x and SO 2 costs as projected by EPA 4% higher (referred to as the Econometric Forecast in Tables I-3a and I-3b, 2013 Load and Capacity Data ) 5% lower (reflects full EEPS Goals achievement) Add renewables from Interconnection queue and reduce 2015 coincident peak load to MW One standard deviation One standard deviation $5/ton Ceiling Midstate & New England/ Upstate differential doubled No National CO 2 Program CO 2 Allowance Costs for non-rggi states set to $0 throughout study period Impact on Demand$ Congestion (2013$M) Scenarios: (Aggregate Change in Demand$ Congestion from Base Case) ($2013M) Constraints CSAPR Higher Load Forecast Lower Load Forecast Full RPS/EEPS Achievement Higher Athens Natural SPS Out Gas of Service Prices Lower Natural Gas prices Capped Carbon Prices Higher No Natural National Gas Cost CO2 Differential Program Central East New Scotland Pleasant Valley (232) 45 (66) 1, ,084 (1,487) 165 2, Central East (218) (113) 150 1,563 (153) 949 (1,354) 120 2, New Scotland-Pleasant Valley (14) 158 (217) (139) (133) 46 (243) (36) 29
30 Next Steps Bring 2013 CARIS Phase 1 Report to Management Committee at September 30th Meeting Review Comments from Independent Market Monitor Present 2013 CARIS Phase 1 Report to NYISO Board Post Board-approved Report on NYISO Website Conduct public information session 30
31 The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) is a not-for-profit corporation responsible for operating the state s bulk electricity grid, administering New York s competitive wholesale electricity markets, conducting comprehensive long-term planning for the state s electric power system, and advancing the technological infrastructure of the electric system serving the Empire State. 31
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