Future Grid Initiatives

Transcription

1

2 Future Grid Initiatives Adam Keech Executive Director, Market Operations Utility of the Future and Energy Innovation Workshop Rutgers University September 16, PJM 2016

3 PJM in the Eastern Interconnection Key Statistics Member companies 960+ Millions of people served 61 Peak load in megawatts 165,492 MW of generating capacity 171,648 Miles of transmission lines 81, GWh of annual energy 792,580 Generation sources 1,304 Square miles of territory 243,417 States served 13 + DC 27% of generation in Eastern Interconnection 28% of load in Eastern Interconnection 20% of transmission assets in Eastern Interconnection 2 PJM 2016

4 Industry Paradigm Shift Unprecedented number of changes in the power industry Storage technologies Distributed energy resources Intermittent renewables Alternative technologies Changes in customer expectations 3 PJM 2016

5 Drivers for Change: Microgrids Interacting through Markets 4 PJM 2016

6 Transmission and Distribution Interaction Distribution Connected Supplier Transmission Connected Information exchange Aggregator Distribution Balancing Services and Congestion Management Distribution Information? Supply Information 5 PJM 2016

7 What is PJM doing? Capacity Market reforms Special stakeholder meetings DER Regulation Market reforms - storage Price formation 6 PJM 2016

8 Energy Storage Optimization Mike Swider Technology Development New York Independent System Operator Utility of the Future and Energy Innovation Workshop Rutgers School of Engineering September 16, New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

9 NYISO Facts & Figures New York State population 19.8 million 2016 Forecasted Peak Load 33,360 MW 2016 Required Installed Capacity 39,198 MW Record peak 33,956 MW (July 19, 2013) Power Generation 700+ units High-Voltage Transmission 11,000+ circuit-miles Average Annual Market Transactions ~$7.5 Billion New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 2

10 Changing New York System Reforming the Energy Vision (REV) Clean Energy Standard (CES) 50% renewable energy by 2030 New Technologies 60 MW of new storage in NYISO interconnection queue Existing system remains very resilient 5 GW large hydroelectric and 19 GW dual-fuel generators Four neighboring balancing areas &12 interstate gas pipelines Demand-side resources New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 3

11 Unit Commitment & Dispatch Day-ahead Market (DAM) Security Constrained Unit Commitment (SCUC) 24-hour inter-temporal optimization Real-time Commitment and Dispatch: Real-time Commitment (RTC) hours/15 minutes Real-time Dispatch (RTD) -- 1 hour/5 minutes RTC and RTD commit and dispatch to resolve anticipated inter-temporal constraints in the look-ahead intervals New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 4

12 Storage Research Goal to integrate storage resources in existing markets and to more accurately represent their constraints and desired operating schedule Pumped storage model used for prototyping Current Energy Market Designs for Energy Storage Asset owner must forecast prices and manage the reservoir level with their bids as NYISO does not manage their state of charge Some other ISOs coordinate pumped storage resources, but in ex-post processes that are not strictly system optimal New York New Independent York Independent System Operator, System Operator, Inc. All Rights Inc. Reserved. All Rights Reserved. 5

13 Current Market Example Asset owner uses hourly bids in the DAM to indicate desired hours for pumping generating If the asset manager misforecasts DAM prices then the units may not be efficiently utilized New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 6

14 Proposed Market Design Concept Owners of storage would bid energy cost curve and state of charge to maximize their net revenue Indicate price for pumping, generating, conversion efficiency and desired energy storage levels Asset manager may bid fuel limit (e.g. reservoir level expressed in MWh) in addition to energy cost curve $/MWh price bids allowed, but not required for logic to work Ternary logic (pump/gen/off) SCUC can optimize when to pump and when to generate over the day based on initial and final reservoir levels New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 7

15 00:00 02:00 04:00 06:00 08:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 00:00 02:00 04:00 06:00 08:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 Day Ahead Regulation Schedule (MW) Zonal Regulation Price ($/MW) Day Ahead Regulation Schedule (MW) Zonal Regulation Price ($/MW) 00:00 02:00 04:00 06:00 08:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 00:00 02:00 04:00 06:00 08:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 Day Ahead Reserve Schedule (MW) Zonal Reserve Price ($/MW) Day Ahead Reserve Schedule (MW) Zonal Reserve Price ($/MW) Day Ahead Energy Schedule (MW) 00:00 02:00 04:00 06:00 08:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 Day Ahead Nodal LBMP ($/MWh) Day Ahead Energy Schedule (MW) 00:00 02:00 04:00 06:00 08:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 Day Ahead Nodal LBMP ($/MWh) Case Studies more gen CURRENT BINARY PSH MODEL NEW TERNARY PSH MODEL 600 PSH Energy Schedule PSH Energy Schedule Nodal LBMP Nodal LBMP more pump Hour PSH Reserve Schedule Zonal Reserve Price Hour PSH Reserve Schedule Zonal Reserve Price Hour Hour PSH Regulation Schedule Zonal Regulation Price PSH Regulation Schedule Zonal Regulation Price Hour Hour Initial and final state of charge is the same in both case New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8

16 Related Future Work Limited Energy Resource Optimization Modeling fuel constraints for natural gas and other units Real-time market design and prototype Expanding storage optimization into RTC/RTD DER Integration Project Distributed Energy Resources Roadmap Ramping Capability Study Evaluating need for and design of a ramp product New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 9

17 For More Information Efficiency and Performance of a New Ternary Energy Storage Model in the Electricity Market Authors: C. Nguyen, M. Marwali, M. Swider, C. Rosecrans pn/ieee_pes_gm15_psh.pdf?attredi rects=0&d= New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 10

18 The Mission of the New York Independent System Operator, in collaboration with its stakeholders, is to serve the public interest and provide benefit to consumers by: Maintaining and enhancing regional reliability Operating open, fair and competitive wholesale electricity markets Planning the power system for the future Providing factual information to policy makers, stakeholders and investors in the power system New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 11

19 Key Trends & R&D Focus Areas for an Evolving Energy Portfolio in the MISO Region Jessica Harrison, Director of R&D, Market Services September 16, 2016

20 Geographically, MISO is the largest regional transmission organization and independent system operator in North America High Voltage Transmission Midcontinent ISO 66,000 Miles Installed Generation Installed Generation Peak System Demand 180,000 MW 1,600 Units 127,000 MW MISO Vision The most reliable, valuecreating RTO Mission Work collaboratively and transparently with our stakeholders to enable reliable delivery of low-cost energy through efficient, innovative operations and planning. 2

21 MISO expects a notable resource portfolio change 3

22 Solar generation in MISO is slow but has potential Today Grid-connected ~ 200 MW solar (registered) in service date of Dec 2016 Estimated 6,000 MW under interconnection study Behind-the-meter Estimated 200 MW (about 0.2% of MISO total load) installed Future Behind-the-meter technicalpotential estimates Source: MISO & Applied Energy Group 4

23 Portfolio Evolution is an MISO R&D focus area Research Questions Should and how might we adapt existing tools that address load and generation variability / forecast errors to better integrate DERs and adapt to a changing portfolio? Gas-electric coordination Ramp product (implemented on May 1, 2016) Enhanced AGC for fast-response resources Demand Response Resource, Load Modifying Resource, Energy Storage Load forecasting & monitoring What additional solutions (interconnection requirements or market products) are or aren t needed? Primary frequency response Ride-through Volt/Var implications? Market pricing dynamics & estimating responses 5

24 Additional DER-related Integration Questions Research Questions (cont d) What metering / telemetry might be required or would be helpful? Situational awareness or forecasting support (day ahead to real time) Appropriate regional samples, data collection processes? Appropriate requirements (security, time delays, accuracy)? Accuracy required? What additional system needs will there be? What volume of data / constraints might our system need to handle and how might we best manage that? Cybersecurity implications under different integration models? What levels should we model to? (Depends in part on answers to above questions) Measurement and verification baseline and response assessments Demand response vs. generation approaches? 6

25 Other Aspects to Consider How might distribution-level technologies / capabilities ultimately shape the profiles viewed in the aggregate at the bulk scale and how might that change over time? Distribution-level capabilities relative to DER deployment timelines Controllability versus observability What kinds of capabilities, requirements or roles, if any, can we define independent of: DER penetration (total penetration and mix of DERs) State policies Supporting resource portfolio makeup 7

26 Utility of the Future and Energy Innovation Workshop Rutgers School of Engineering September 16, 2016 Edward Randolph, Director Energy Division California Public Utilities Commission

27 Actions Underway In California 50% RPS (already at 26% renewable statewide (not including large hydro and rooftop solar)) Doubling of Energy Efficiency codes, rebates, procurement Storage Mandates (1325 MWs) Integrated Distributed Energy Resource Proceeding (IDER) Distributed Resource Plans (DRP) Integrated Resource Planning with focus on GHG (IRP) Demand Response Rate Reform Aliso Canyon Response Utility Initiatives 2

28 An Emerging Trend Decreasing electric sales and increasing electric revenue requirements are leading to a potential future of continually increasing retail rates. Sales have decreased due to a number of factors, including demand side-management (energy efficiency), customer generation and community choice aggregation. Revenue requirements have increased for distribution and transmission infrastructure. The decoupled nature of California s electric rates makes energy efficiency less threatening to utilities and saves the cost of new generation assets, but increases the relative rate per kwh as electricity sales decline with increased energy efficiency. 3

29 Increasing Revenue Requirement Over the past 10 years, the electric revenue requirement for PG&E has increased by 36%, SCE by 8% and SDG&E by 165%. Total California IOU ratebase has more than doubled over the decade from 2005 through There are several reasons for the rapid rise in ratebase, including but not limited to costs associated with the RPS mandate, T&D infrastructure upgrades. California s population is expected to grow to over 48 million people by In order provide electric service to this burgeoning population, IOUs will be required to continue upgrading and replacing aging T&D infrastructure. In addition, new T&D infrastructure will likely be required to interconnect additional renewable resources to comply with Senate Bill 350 (De Leon, 2015), which mandates a 50% RPS by

30 Increasing Revenue Requirement (cont d) Distribution is the fastest growing segment of ratebase, and the rate of return on distribution assets for the three utilities has grown annually by approximately 4.3% since

31 6

32 The Utilities Naturally Target the Distribution System for Modernization and Increases in Capital Spending Distribution and Tranmission assets are driving the growth of ratebase: Although this may be justified considering the age of the system and needs due to current grid modernization efforts (integration of DERs/smart grid/smart meters/ev/storage), it should be monitored carefully. These innovations may also hold the key to reducing the need for future distribution upgrades. At the same time, unless the CPUC and the utilities are vigilant over costs, the movement toward increasing distributed generation could result in increased costs for ratepayers. 7

33 Declining Sales Concurrent with increases in revenue requirements, electric sales have been declining for all three utilities. PG&E had a rather sharp sales decline of 4.4% in the last year (from August 2014 through August 2015), while SCE has had a decline of 1.5%. SDG&E's sales have remained largely flat overall but are forecast to decline 0.6% over the next few years. Despite these modest numbers, larger percentage swings exist within classes, which can have a significant impact on rates for that class. For example, SDG&E marked a 6% decline in residential class sales in This trend is only expected to grow with rooftop solar and energy efficiency increasing at status quo levels. 8 October 12, 2016

34 Declining Sales 9 October 12, 2016

35 Mitigating Sales Decline Depends Primarily on EV Adoption Rates Increased sales from EV adoption may partially offset the current rev req/sales spiral. Load growth due to transportation electrification is forecasted in the IEPR; forecasted energy use from EVs in 2026 ranges from approximately 2,000 7,500 GWh. Assuming that 7500 GWh of demand statewide for EV usage in 2026 is a best case scenario in terms of the impact of charging on sales, it would appear that EV growth could mitigate a potentially significant portion of the IOU sales decline. However, the 2015 IEPR also indicates that the mid case scenario for California electricity consumption in 2025 is projected to be 2.8% or 9,000 GWh lower than the 2014 mid case projection. If these projections are correct, approximately 80% of the projected sales decline could be offset by EV charging, but only under a best-case scenario. 10 October 12, 2016

36 Questions? 11

37 Utility of the Future By view of the Elephant Michael Winka Sr Policy Advisor Rutgers University School of Engineering September 16, 2016

38 Million Megawatt-hours (MWh) State of New Jersey 80 New Jersey Net In-State Generation and Imported Electricity, Year Net In-state(70% increase) Imported (70% decrease) Linear (Imported (70% decrease)) Printed 2014/03/06 01:59 PM Eastern Standard Time

39 State of New Jersey New Jersey Electricity Generation by Fuel Type (%), % 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1% 0.1% 0.3% 1% 8% 3% 3% 4% 33% 43% 44% 42% 56% 51% 52% 47% 2% 4% 2% 2.3% Petroleum Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Renewables Printed 2014/03/06 01:59 PM Eastern Standard Time

40 State of New Jersey New Jersey s Clean Energy Program EE reduction of Electric Sales 0.5% annually total cumulative reduction 7% Printed 2014/03/06 01:59 PM Eastern Standard Time

41 State of New Jersey New Jersey Renewable Energy Portfolio Standard Printed 2014/03/06 01:59 PM Eastern Standard Time

42 State of New Jersey Current New Jersey CHP/FC and DER facilities DER Number MW CHP/FC total 219 2,900 CHP/DG DG CHP/FC renewable PV total 38,983 1,535 PV Behind the Meter 38,855 1,203 PV Grid Supply TOTAL DER 39,100 1,913 Printed 2014/03/06 01:59 PM Eastern Standard Time

43 State of New Jersey Not all Microgrid are the Same - Classification System Level 1 or single customer microgrid. This is a single DER system such as a PV system, combined heat and power (CHP) or fuel cell system that is serving one customer and that is connected to and can island from the distribution grid. Level 2 or single customer campus setting. This is a single or multiple DER systems with multiple buildings, but controlled by one meter at the point of common coupling that is connected to and can island from the distribution grid. Level 3 or multiple customers / advanced microgrid. This is a single or multiple DER system that serves several different buildings/customers that are not on the same meter or on the same site as the DER. An advanced microgrid would be designed with one point of common coupling (PCC). The individual buildings/customers may be independently connected to the larger distribution grid and through the microgrid PCC.. Printed 2014/03/06 01:59 PM Eastern Standard Time

44 State of New Jersey Printed 2014/03/06 01:59 PM Eastern Standard Time

45 State of New Jersey Printed 2014/03/06 01:59 PM Eastern Standard Time

46 State of New Jersey NARUC DER Tariff Guidance / RAP Designing DG Tariffs Well/ LBNL Distribution System Pricing w DER / Gridwise The Future of the Grid 1. Net metering 2. Valuation 3. Value of Resource 4. Value of Service 5. Transactive Energy 6. Demand Charges peak/nonpeak 7. Fixed Charges 8. Standby/backup Charges 9. Interconnection /metering fees RAP DER Tariff Guidance John Sherot and Janine Midgen-Ostrander Designing Tariffs DG Customers 1. Customers should be able to connect at the cost of connecting 2. Customers should pay for grid services based on what they use 3. Customers should be fairly compensated for the value of the power they supply 4. Tariffs should balance the interest of all shareholders but not the incentive mechanism. Printed 2014/03/06 01:59 PM Eastern Standard Time

47 State of New Jersey Goal NJ Global Warming Response Act 80% reduction in 2006 GHG level by years into the Future Utility of the Future Solar approaching $1 per watt installed across average customer and 20 +% efficiency Electric Vehicles < $30K with 300+ mile range Battery Storage increasing power density and lower kwh cost equal to solar decline Distribution Automation/Smart Grid increasing interoperability and lower costs Printed 2014/03/06 01:59 PM Eastern Standard Time Building Integration Building Code

48 State of New Jersey Residential Commercial Industrial Heating/Process E E NG/E Cooling/Process E E E Vehicle E E NG/E 40% 30% 30% Decrease in Natural Gas and Oil and Increase in Electric (solar) Increase EDC and Decrease RTO/ISO Printed 2014/03/06 01:59 PM Eastern Standard Time

49 State of New Jersey = Printed 2014/03/06 01:59 PM Eastern Standard Time +