Managing California s Electrical Supply System after the shut down of San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station

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1 Managing California s Electrical Supply System after the shut down of San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station East Asian Alternative Energy Futures Workshop By the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center Phil Pettingill, Director, State Regulatory Strategy October 7, 2013

2 North American Grid The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) is the organization that regulates the North American grid through the adoption and enforcement of reliability standards. Eight regional entities must register and comply with these NERC standards. WECC is the regional entity responsible for reliability in the Western Interconnection. 2

3 Independent System Operator (ISO)/Regional Transmission Organization (RTO) Council The California ISO is one of 9 nonprofit, independent system operators/regional transmission operators (ISOs/RTOs) in North America. Two-thirds of the United States is served by ISOs. ISO/RTOs operate the grid reliably and efficiently, provide fair and open transmission access, plan and identify future grid infrastructure needs. 3

4 Who oversees ISO/RTOs? All ISO/RTOs in the U.S. are regulated by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), except for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which is overseen only by its Board and state legislature. FERC, is an independent agency that regulates the interstate transmission of natural gas, oil, and electricity. FERC also regulates natural gas and hydropower projects. All ISO/RTOs must comply with North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) standards California ISO is part of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) 4

5 California ISO by the numbers Nonprofit public benefit corporation Part of Western Electricity Coordinating Council: 14 states, British Columbia, Alberta and parts of Mexico 58,698 MW of power plant capacity 50,270 MW record peak demand (July 24, 2006) 26,500 market transactions per day 25,627 circuit-miles of transmission lines 30 million people served 309 million megawatt-hours of electricity delivered annually 5

6 California Energy and Environmental Policy Drivers Greenhouse gas reductions to 1990 levels by % of load served by renewable generation by 2020 Ban the use of once-through cooling (OTC) in coastal power plants Limits the availability of air emission credits for replacement generation 6

7 Significant capacity must comply with the Once Through Cooling regulation. 7

8 Significant renewable generation in ISO queue as of September 27,

9 California renewable policies are succeeding Current installed capacity: 3,700 MW solar Peak 2,794 MW on Sept 18, 12:46 p.m. 6,900 MW wind Peak 4,302 MW on June 23, 12:22 a.m. Expected 2020 capacity: 10,800 MW solar 7,900 MW wind For Operating Day Monday, September 23,

10 The ISO needs flexible resources to manage reliability of the future grid. Load & Net Load (MW) 34,000 32,000 30,000 28,000 26,000 24,000 22,000 20,000 18,000 One measure of flexibility is ability to change output over a short time 6,700 MW in 3-hours 7,000 MW in 3-hours Net Load 12,700 MW in 3-hours 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 Wind & Solar (MW) 16,000 14,000 0 Hour 10

11 California s success is driving the need for smarter grid applications. Flexible generation Non-generation capability Demand response Energy storage Targeted energy efficiency Better forecasts Better visibility Technology pilots Improved regional coordination 11

12 Energy Imbalance Market Leverages existing CAISO market Enhances reliability through improved situational awareness in CAISO and EIM footprint Expected to bring down costs by allowing access to a wider array of resources. Provides flexibility reserve benefits Provides easy entry/exit for EIM participation 12

13 Reality of Southern California s Grid post-san Onofre Details: San Onofre represented 16% of local generation or ~1.4 million homes More importantly its location was on a critical transmission path that was crucial to voltage support Challenge: Once through cooling retirement timeline of 5,000 MW Annual load growth of 400 MW Difficult to move limited energy to load without adequate voltage support 13

14 ISO local capacity areas and once-through cooling plants 14

15 San Onofre closure causes reliability problems in Southern California because Los Angeles and San Diego are load pockets with limited options Real-time changes ( contingency response) System must be ready to respond to events Some events are instantaneous; others allow 30 minutes Real power (Watts) Runs lights and appliances Requires correct voltage for delivery (like pressure in water pipes) Reactive power (Vars) Over or under supply of Vars causes voltages to climb or fall Local needs must be met locally All three characteristics are needed not all resources can provide. Compliance with once-through cooling schedule compounds the issues. San Onofre provided: 2,246 MW in the LA Basin 1,100 MVars supporting voltages between Los Angeles & San Diego 15

16 Expected resource needs and potential solutions Total load in LA Basin & San Diego: 2018 = 27,500 MW 2022 = 29,000 MW *1,800 MW authorized May include additional preferred resources Transmission could further reduce need 16

17 Southern CA OTC Gas-Fired Generator Characteristics 2012 Annual Capacity Factors: 1-27% (Average 9%) 2012 Summer (June September) Capacity Factors: 1-40% (Average 12%) 17

18 OTC Water Usage Reduction System & Southern CA

19 Specific near term actions ( ) VARs MW VARs & MW Review permits for Talega & San Onofre Mesa projects Extend Huntington Beach synchronous condensers Modify San Onofre voltage criteria (w/sce) Flex-Alert funding beyond 2014 Permit construction of Sycamore-Penasquitos 230kv line Authorize acceleration of EE, DR, DG, and storage procurement in target areas Maintain capacity at Cabrillo II Timely action on Pio Pico Authorize procurement to replace Encina Evaluate conversion of one San Onofre unit to a synchronous condenser Evaluate transmission alternatives Develop & implement multiyear auction for DR and EE Timely decisions to license replacements for OTC capacity Create contingency permitting process CPUC CEC ISO 19

20 Illustrative example of conventional generation development timeline Long-Term Procurement Plan Authorization Request for Offer Design Request for Proposal Interconnection, Permit Preparation Permitting Construction This timeline presents an expected development timeframe; resources may come online earlier but at greater costs and less thorough assessments Other assessments have indicated a longer development timeframe 20

21 Success requires a multi-faceted approach Commitment to Preferred Resources Timely License Decisions to Replace Once-Through Cooling Capacity Extend ISO reliability contract for Huntington Beach Synchronous Condensers Implement a multi-year auction to assist in procurement of Demand Response and Energy Efficiency Contingency Approach to Once-Through Cooling Compliance Dates 21

22 Transmission proposals under review* (3) TE-VS-new Case Springs 500kV line *Any project will require approvals Alamitos Alberhill (1) Alberhill-Suncrest 500 kv line Case Springs Suncrest (4) Alamitos (Or SONGS) - South Bay area HVDC Submarine Cable Imperial Valley (2) Imperial Valley SONGS HVDC Line 22

23 Questions

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