2016 Weather Adjustments and 2017 Forecast for the NYSRC 2017 Installed Reserve Margin Study
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1 s and 2017 for the NYSRC 2017 Installed Reserve Margin Study Arthur Maniaci Supervisor, Load ing & Energy Efficiency New York Independent System Operator NYSRC Installed Capacity Subcommittee October 7, Rensselaer, NY New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY
2 -Adjusted NYCA Coincident Peaks (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9a) (9b) (10)=(9b)-(6) (11)=(10)/(9b) Transmission District Actual, 8/11/ HB 16 d Muni Self- Gen Demand Response Normalized Loss Reallocation WN, Adj for Losses ICAP Market, Without Loss Adjusted Peaks & Comparison to ICAP TO, Over /Under TO Error, Percent Over /Under Cen. Hudson 1, , ,062 1,104 1, % Con Ed 12, , ,505 13,705 13, % LIPA 5, , ,480 5,491 5, % NGrid 7, , ,890 6,776 7, % NYPA % NYSEG 3, , ,250 3,192 3, % O&R 1, , ,172 1,164 1, % RG&E 1, , ,571 1,591 1, % Grand Total 31, ,091 33, ,263 33,359 33, % -Adjusted Locality Peaks (Non-Coincident) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) Locality Date and Time ( inning) Actual d Muni Self- Gen Demand Response Locality Adjusted ICAP Market Over/Under Percent Over/Under - NYC 8/11/16 HB 16 11, ,650 11, % Zone K - LI 8/12/16 HB 16 5, ,478 5, % HIJ 8/11/16 HB 16 15, ,048 16, % New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 2
3 2017 NYCA Coincident Peak s by Transmission District (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10a)=(8)*(9) (10b) (10c)=(10a)+(10b) Transmission District Actual d SCR & Muni Self- Gen SCR/EDRP Normalized Loss Reallocation WN, Adj for Losses Regional Load Growth Factors 2017, Before s Other s to Load 2017 IRM Final Cen. Hudson 1, , , ,069 1,069 Con Ed 12, , , ,359 13,359 LIPA 5, , , ,409 5,409 NGrid 7, , , , ,097 NYPA NYSEG 3, , , ,277 3,277 O&R 1, , , ,167 1,167 RG&E 1, , , ,566 1,566 Grand Total 31, ,090 33, , , , from Gold Book 33,363 Change from Gold book Locality Peak s (Non-Coincident) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) Locality Actual d Muni Self-Gen SCR/EDR P Normalized Regional Load Growth Factors 2017 IRM Final 2017 from Gold Book Change from Gold Book - NYC 11, , ,670 11, Zone K - LI 5, , ,450 5, HIJ 15, , ,073 16, New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 3
4 2017 Coincident Peak s by Transmission District and Zone (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) Row Labels A B C D E F G H I J K Grand Total CenHudson 3.1 1, ,068.6 ConEd , , ,360.0 LIPA 5, ,409.5 Ngrid 1, , , ,096.6 NYPA NYSEG , ,277.5 OR 1, ,167.1 RGE 1, ,566.1 Grand Total 2, , , , , , , , , , G to J Peak s by Transmission District and Zone (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Row Labels G H I J Grand Total CenHudson 1, ,072.2 ConEd , , ,444.1 LIPA 0.0 Ngrid 0.0 NYPA 0.0 NYSEG OR 1, ,174.5 RGE 0.0 Grand Total 2, , , , New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 4
5 NYCA Coincident s & Times & Zonal Locality s & Times & Zonal (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) (15) = (14-7) NYCA CP G-J NCP Delta /8/ ,316 2,033 10,971 15, /8/ ,316 2,033 10,971 15, /9/ ,277 2,056 10,979 15, /10/ ,338 2,101 11,262 15, /17/ ,159 1,875 10,366 14, /21/ ,117 1,879 10,661 14, /6/ ,399 2,187 11,600 16, /6/ ,399 2,187 11,600 16, /22/ ,482 2,239 11,826 16, /22/ ,482 2,239 11,826 16, /17/ ,282 2,082 11,405 15, /18/ ,288 2,071 11,424 15, /19/ ,384 2,253 11,736 16, /19/ ,384 2,253 11,736 16, /2/ ,036 1,917 10,567 14, /2/ ,046 1,933 10,572 14, /29/ ,070 1,930 10,455 14, /20/ ,059 1,996 10,675 14, /11/ 16 2,069 1,993 11,006 15,068 8/11/ 16 2,069 1,993 11,006 15,068 - Average 15,395 Average 15, Ratio of Locality Peak to Coincident Peak (15,492/15,395) NYCA Coincident s & Times & Zonal Locality s & Times & Zonal (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) (15) = (13-6) NYCA CP New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 5, Coin. with J /8/ ,316 2,033 10,971 15, /8/ ,316 2,033 10,971 15, /9/ ,277 2,056 10,979 15, /10/ ,338 2,101 11,262 15, /17/ ,159 1,875 10,366 14, /21/ ,117 1,879 10,661 14, /6/ ,399 2,187 11,600 16, /6/ ,399 2,187 11,600 16, /22/ ,482 2,239 11,826 16, /22/ ,375 2,107 11,876 16, /17/ ,282 2,082 11,405 15, /18/ ,115 2,002 11,438 15, /19/ ,384 2,253 11,736 16, /19/ ,384 2,253 11,736 16, /2/ ,036 1,917 10,567 14, /2/ ,046 1,933 10,572 14, /29/ ,070 1,930 10,455 14, /20/ ,059 1,996 10,675 14, /11/ 16 2,069 1,993 11,006 15,068 8/11/ 16 2,069 1,993 11,006 15,068 - Average 11,091 Average 11, Ratio of J Locality Peak to J Coincident Peak (11,191/11,087) Delta
6 The mission of the New York Independent System Operator, in collaboration with its stakeholders, is to serve the public interest and provide benefit to consumers by: Maintaining and enhancing regional reliability Operating open, fair and competitive wholesale electricity markets Planning the power system for the future Providing factual information to policy makers, stakeholders and investors in the power system New York Independent System Operator, Inc. All Rights Reserved. DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY 6
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Rate Schedule LP-4 Lo u p La r g e Li g h t a n d Po w e r - Su b t r a n s m i s s i o n De l i v e r y w i t h Cu s t o m e r Ge n e r a t i o n Un d e r Buy/Sell Concept Loup River Public Power District
The Long-Range Transmission Plan
The Long-Range Transmission Plan 2015 2025 Matt Koenig Presentation to ESPWG / TPAS October 29 th, 2015 Long-Range Transmission Plan Driver of the Plan is to maintain local reliability 10-year planning
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STATION: New York State Department of Transportation Traffic Count Hourly Report Page of ROUTE #: NY ROAD NAME: FROM: RT : END / OLAP COUNTY: Onondaga : Eastbound FACR GROUP: REC. SERIAL #: AP FUNC. CLASS: