Robotics Ecosystems InfoAg 2018 St. Louis, MO Tuesday, August 17. S.A. Shearer Food, Agricultural and Biological Engineering

Transcription

1 Robotics Ecosystems InfoAg 2018 St. Louis, MO Tuesday, August 17 S.A. Shearer Food, Agricultural and Biological Engineering

2 Ag robot proliferation 2

3 Trends in Ballasted Tractor Weight Weight (ballasted): 60,000 lb f Engine (max.): 620 hp Weight/Power: 96.8 lb f /hp 3

4 Increasing Equipment Size 4

5 Compaction Yield Loss 5

6 Visualizing Yield Loss Visible V12 Yield Map Adjusted Map Yield (bu/ac) Equalizer - 104,800 lbs Wheeled - 96,000 lbs 6

7 Efficiency/Reliability vs. Size Planter Reliability Failure Width (Rows) Rate % 99.7% 96.2% 0.10% 96.8% 61.6% Source: Taylor, R.K., M.D. Schrock and S.A. Staggenborg Using GPS Technology to Assist Machinery Management Decisions. Meeting Paper MC01-204, Mid- Central Conference of the ASAE. 7

8 High speed field operations 8

9 High speed field operations 9

10 Sensor Densification of Field Machinery 10

11 Emerging cultivation practices In-Season Application (High Clearance) Targeted Application (Vision Systems and AI) Biologicals (Multi-Product Application) Narrow Row Corn (Wheel/Track Size and Spacing) 11

12 Strip Intercropping 12

13 Emissions Nonroad EU Stage V 13

14 Mechanical Life and Technical Obsolescence vu=0.01 pctp dr t pg (1+0.01i r) t bg i f where, v u - technology upgrade cost at given age ($) p c - purchase cost ($) t p - technology portion of purchase cost (%) d r - technology depreciation rate (%) t pg - time since previous generation (yr) t bg - time between current generation and initial generation (yr) i r - inflation rate (%) i f - inflation compound factor: 12 monthly, 1 - yearly 14

15 Technical Obsolescence Comparison Modern Agricultural Tractor An 8R coming out of Waterloo should have a mechanical life of 20,000 h. In the Midwest this tractor will likely be used 500 h/yr. Mechanical life of the tractor might exceed 40 yrs. Smart Phone Apple iphone history: 1 st Generation ; 3G ; 3GS ; ; 4S 2011; ; 5C, 5S 2013; 6, ; 6S, 6S ; SE, 7, ; and 8, 8+, X Which model do most people carry today? What is expected life of an iphone? 15

16 Supervised Autonomy ASI Mobius Solution 16

17 Common Telematics Solutions 17

18 Internet Access (FCC 2018) 200 kbps 10 Mbps 18

19 Future field production system? 19

20 Multiple Machine Control Architecture 20

21 Communications and Control Arduino Mega 2560/Raspberry Pi with Ethernet shell for control and communications interface Ubiquiti Networks Rocket M radios, AirMAX Sector antennas and UniFi video cameras Dell T7810 Precision Workstation (Dual Intel Xeon Processor E5-2687W) 21

22 Autonomous Tractor Development 22

23 SwarmFarm - Australia 23

24 Alternative Ownership Models Source: 24

25 Smart Connected Products How Smart, Connected Products Are Transforming Competition by M.E. Porter and J.E. Heppelmann 25

26 Supply Chain Logistics 26

27 Venture capital seeking a home 27

28 Gartner Hype Curve 28

29 Summary Thoughts Low-power autonomous tractors will minimize liability (< 100 hp). Mitigation of soil compaction likely to drive the adoption of autonomous ag equipment (< 10,000 lb GVW and < 3.0 psi ground contact pressure). Removal of human operator reduces base machine cost (i.e., cab enclosure, HID lighting, air conditioning, air suspension seat, tractor styling, visibility, etc.) from >$1,000/hp to < $750/hp. Obsolescence and mechanical life should coincide (5,000 h life, or 5 to 7 cropping seasons). Expect a resurgence in spark ignition engines -- emissions and mechanical life will drive adoption. Extended operating hours (24x7), increased field efficiency and ability to move equipment between regions will amortize technology costs over more acres. Parts and service will be provided via dispatched trucks, significantly altering traditional dealership model. Preferred approach will be supervised autonomy -- machine intelligence, edge/fog computing and broadband internet access will enable adoption. Alternative machine forms will support alternative cropping systems strip intercropping, interseeding of cover crops,,etc. New business and ownership models will challenge status quo leading to the dominance of contract farming and ag logistics services! 29

30 Questions? 30