Preparing the Workforce for the Automotive Technology of 2025

Transcription

1 Preparing the Workforce for the Automotive Technology of 2025 Macomb Community College Center for Advanced Automotive Technology (CAAT) May 30, 2013 Center for Automotive Research

2 Industry Collaboration & Partnerships The Center for Automotive Research brings together stakeholders for thought leadership and industry education. CAR collaborative working groups: Automotive Communities Partnership (ACP) Connected Vehicle Working Group United Tooling Coalition (UTC) Program for Automotive Labor and Education (PALE) Electric Vehicle Working Group Advanced Automotive Information Technology Solutions Consortia Coalition for Automotive Light-weighting Materials (CALM)

3 CAR s flagship event, August 5-8 Now in its 48 th year a can t miss event More than 900 attendees expected Sessions on manufacturing, materials, connected vehicles, policy, sales forecasting, purchasing, strategy, & capital investment More information at

4 Name a product? Which consists of nearly 30,000 parts, Can be assembled at the rate of 1 per minute, 16 hours a day, 200 days a year, Runs for several years, most of the time without a single manufacturing defect? Is from the largest manufacturing sector in the U.S. economy. This accomplishment by the auto industry to execute mass production has become the norm.

5 The Supplier Table of Pain Efficiency (Consumer and Producer Price Index) Industry PPI/CPI/ECI % Change New Cars and Trucks CPI +3.6% Motor Vehicles Manufacturing Price Index PPI +4.2% Motor Vehicle Parts PPI-Commodities +4.9% Rolled Steel PPI +20.2% Alumina & aluminum production & processing +0.7% Plastic Materials & Resins PPI +18.1% Petroleum Refineries PPI +44.7% Health Insurance ECI +17.9%* Source: BLS Nov 2011 *Calculated from ECI Health Insurance benefit 12-month percentage change rates

6 Average Age in Years AVERAGE VEHICLE AGE 11.5 Average Age of the Light-Duty Vehicle Fleet

7 Manufacturing Efficiency Taiichi Ohno: Toyota Production System Global Supply Chains Flexible Manufacturing & Industrial Robotics Global Platforms Digital Engineering & Manufacturing

8 Historical Trends: Horsepower, Weight and Fuel Economy Comfort/convenience (music, powered accessories) Safety (crashworthiness, airbags) Emissions reduction Increased power Fleet Average (approx.): 1980: 23 mpg 2012: 28 mpg

9 EPA Estimate gco2/mile Standard Equivalent Fuel Economy Standard (MPG) Fuel Economy Regulation Projections Grams CO2/mile CAFE mpg Source: EPA and NHTSA

10 Fuel Economy & Safety The most likely dramatic changes for the automotive market through 2025 could well be a result of mandates by the federal government to improve the fuel economy performance and vehicle safety

11 Auto: Over 1M U.S. jobs (incl. spinoff) Over $12B/year private R&D in Michigan North American Automotive Manufacturing and R&D Clusters, 2011 Center for Automotive Research, April 2013

12 Automotive Innovation New technologies what s coming next? Powertrain Materials (Lightweighting and Crashworthiness) Electronics Safety Road use Convenience Many supportive ones

13 Percent Fuel Consumption Reduction Assessment of Technologies for Improving Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy Over 40 Technologies 35.0% 30.0% High Impact - Strategic 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% Incremental Low Risk 5.0% 0.0% * Preceding Technology Required Source: NAS

14 Source: Uchiyamada, Toyota Motor Company

15 Powertrain Diversity and Convergence today tomorrow future (electric) gasoline gasoline diesel gasoline diesel Alternative fuels HCCI diesel Alternative fuels EV / range extender EV - battery EV (battery / fuel cell) EV / fuel cell hybrid hybrid EV / range extender Source: Robert Bosch LLC 15 HCCI = homogeneous-charge compression ignition

16 Why Light Weighting? Excess weight kills any self-propelled vehicle. There are a lot of fool ideas about weight Whenever anyone suggests to me that I might increase weight or add a part, I look into decreasing weight and eliminating a part! Henry Ford, 1922 Every automotive manufacturer is pursuing light weighting as a key strategy to reduce fuel consumption irrespective of the powertrain technology pathway.

17 Average Material Content of North American Light Vehicles 50.0% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% Image: Porsche 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Data source: Wards

18 Average Material Content of North American Light Vehicles 50.0% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% Image: Porsche 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Data source: Wards

19 Evolution of Materials Winners & Losers Changing Composition of Light Vehicles by Material, Largest growth expected in: aluminum high strength steels Reduced amounts of mild steel and cast iron Drives fundamental changes in the way vehicles are designed, engineered, built and repaired Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Vehicle Technologies Program, 2010

20 Cold forming (steel & aluminum) Part Fabrication Hydroforming (metal tubes) Hot forming (UHSS) RTM (CFRP)

21 Joining Complexity Increasing Resistance Spot Welding Joining Laser Welding Adhesives Fasteners

22 2014 Corvette Stingray: A Future Direction for Materials New body shop for aluminum frame Carbon fiber hood and roof and interior Carbon-nano composite underbody panels Magnesium frame seat SMC fenders, doors and rear quarter panels & hatch Extrusions, castings and sheet (castings 2mm 11mm) Hydro formed tubes Magnesium structural chassis components Joining: adhesive, laser welding, fasteners, spot welding Photo Source: General Motors

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24 Key Material Trends (Next 10 years) Increased use of ultra high strength steel for structural components around the safety cage to prevent intrusion Aluminum use for chassis and exterior panels is increasing Fiber reinforced plastics (glass and carbon) for structural components are still several years away from high volume production Joining complexity: more laser welding, fasteners and adhesives Structural Adhesive

25 Driver Attention & Connected Vehicles connectivity is increasing Top 3 features consumers want: glance sequences 1. Wireless Communications (bundle of many features) 2. Navigation 3. Automatic Crash Notification

26 Connected Vehicles Defined Connected vehicles use any of a number of different wireless communication technologies to communicate with: Each other Roadside infrastructure The Cloud Goals for connected vehicles are to enhance Vehicle and roadway safety Mobility Environment (e.g., reduced fuel consumption)

27 Primary Options for Vehicle Communications Dedicated Short-Range Communications (DSRC) Operates at 5.9 GHz in U.S. Especially promising for applications that require very fast, highly reliable transmission, such as cooperative safety with active braking (V2V) Range up to 300 m Could require fairly extensive and expensive build out Cellular Much infrastructure already in place, but many planned applications require third generation (3G) or beyond network (4G, LTE, WiMax) Works well for OnStar and like applications; also works for traffic probe data collection (as done by companies such as INRIX) Wi-Fi Mobile Wi-Fi networks beginning to emerge that use 3G (increasingly 4G) for backhaul; could have utility for mobile ad-hoc networks (but not for safety?) Bluetooth Useful for communication within a vehicle and some attempts underway to measure traffic via passive roadside units

28 Implications for Investment of Convergence and Self-Driving Vehicles Crash elimination: Crash-free driving and improved vehicle safety could change the concept of a vehicle as we know it Reduced need for new infrastructure: Self-driving can reduce the need for building new infrastructure and reduce maintenance costs Travel time dependability: Convergence can substantially reduce uncertainty in travel times via real-time, predictive assessment of travel times on all routes Productivity improvements: Convergence will allow travelers to make use of travel time productively Improved energy efficiency: Reduced energy consumption in at least three ways: more efficient driving; lighter, more fuel-efficient vehicles; and efficient infrastructure Data challenges: Issues related to data security, privacy, and data analytics and aggregation could crop up due to abundance of data in vehicles New models for vehicle ownership: Selfdriving vehicles could lead to a major redefinition of vehicle ownership and expand opportunities for vehicle sharing New business models and scenarios: Convergence of technologies may realign industries such that ecosystem participants need to compete and collaborate at the same time

29 Industry Challenge Severe shortage of technical skills Chicken-and-egg challenge with many technologies electrification/alternative fuels Materials supply chain Connectivity retrofitting, infrastructure/automobile Predictive modeling: CAE Powertrain control systems Materials forming and crash performance Structures Fabrication (molding, hot forming, stamping AHSS/aluminum, ) Joining (RSW, laser, adhesives, fasteners) Greater industry collaboration Standards (material, testing, )

30 Thank You Center for Automotive Research