NORTH AMERICAN AUTOMOTIVE METALS CONFERENCE SEPTEMBER 2-3, 2015

Transcription

1 AUTOMOTIVE ALUMINUM S INCREASING MARKET PERFORMANCE NORTH AMERICAN AUTOMOTIVE METALS CONFERENCE SEPTEMBER 2-3, 2015

2 PRESENTER: DOUG RICHMAN Doug Richman Technical Committee Chairman The Aluminum Association s Aluminum Transportation Group Vice President-Engineering/Technology Kaiser Aluminum

3 DISCUSSION OUTLINE Automotive Demand Drivers Supply/Demand 2015:25 Rolling Capacity Products Customers Want Questions

4 DRIVER DEMAND: THE ALUMINUM ADVANTAGE

5 WHAT AUTOMOTIVE CUSTOMERS NEED ALUMINUM DEMAND DRIVERS 2015:25 Weight Reduction (Multi-Material Vehicles) - Fuel Economy/CO2 (CAFE) - Performance: Safety, 0-60, handling, ride, NVH, braking, etc. Payload, towing capacity Aluminum Products Body Sheet Extrusions Structural castings Properties Strong, tough, energy absorbing, corrosion resistant, formable, etc. Cost Effective

6 50 YEARS OF ALUMINUM GROWTH 600 DOORS & BODY-IN- WHITE 509 lbs. 500 Pounds Per Vehicle (PPV) Heat Exchangers Wheels Heads Blocks Bumpers HOODS 394 lbs. Sheet Extrusions Source: Ducker

7 ALUMINUM BODY COMPONENTS Body in White Deck Door outer Bumper Beams Shock Towers Fenders Door and other closure inners Door outer Hood

8 ALUMINUM AUTO BODY SHEET AND EXTRUSIONS 1.0 lb. of aluminum replaces 1.7 lbs. of MS/HS/AHSS Body: -40% mass (BIW, Closures) Curb mass: -12% Jaguar, F-150, Aachen, FEV/EDAG Secondary mass reductions Up to 0.5 lbs. 10% vehicle mass reduction achievable Cost advantage over other fuel economy technologies Diesel, hybrid, electric, 6.5% FE improvement (+ 2.7 MPG)

9 AUTOMOTIVE : THE ALUMINUM GROWTH MARKET 2014:2025 M&E 8% Cons, Durab. 7% Other 3% Transport 36% M&E 5% Cons, Durab. 6% Other 3% Transport 48% Elect. 8% Elect. 9% B&C 9% B&C 13% Total: 24 B Lbs. Packag. 24% Packag. 21% Total: 27 B Lbs.

10 WILL THERE BE ENOUGH ALUMINUM? SUPPLY AND DEMAND

11 NAFTA ALUMINUM CONSUMPTION Aluminum Consumption Primary 10.0 B lbs. Recycled 10.5 B Imports 3.7 B Total: 24.2 B Lbs. Data Source: USGS Minerals Yearbook 2014

12 ALUMINUM PRODUCTION VALUE STREAM

13 GLOBAL ALUMINUM CAPACITY 2014 Mine (Bauxite) Global Bauxite Production Global Bauxite Reserves Refine (Alumina) Global Capacity Global Production Global Demand Increase B lbs. 140 T lbs. (250 years) 280 B Lbs. 220 B 20 B Note: 4 5 lbs. Bauxite, yields 2 lbs. Alumina, yields 1 lb. Aluminum Data Source: IAI Statistical Review

14 PRIMARY ALUMINUM CAPACITY 2014:25 Global Primary Capacity 120 B lbs. Demand 105 B lbs. Available 15 B lbs. Global 2025 Demand + 10 B lbs. NAFTA Primary Capacity 11.3 B Lbs. Demand 10.0 B Available 1.3 B NAFTA 2025 Demand B Lbs. Opportunity B Lbs. (NAFTA Capacity, Import?) NAFTA Capacity: US 5.1 B Lbs. CAN 6.2 B Data Source: USGS Minerals Yearbook 2014

15 CANADA PRIMARY ALUMINUM PRODUCITON 2015 Sources: Rio Tinto Alcan; Alcoa; Aluminerie Alouette

16 NAFTA PRIMARY ALUMINUM LONG TERM TREND CO2 Generation* Coal 20 lb./lb. Al Hydro 5 lb./lb. Al * Includes: mining, refining, transportation

17 COST EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT $2.00 $1.80 Aluminum Price Market, CPI Adjusted (1975 = 1) $1.60 Aluminum ($.Lb.) $1.40 $1.20 $1.00 $0.80 $0.60 $ Price CPI Indexed Average MW Price Changes 1975:15 CPI 4.4 AL 2.5 Bread 5.0 Labor 4.9 Car 4.7 Elect. 4.5 Home 4.1 Gasoline2.7 $0.20 $

18 NAFTA ALUMINUM ROLLING CAPACITY 2015:25 (SHEET AND PLATE) Sheet / Plate: 2015 Total S&P Body Sheet * Demand 10.6 B Lbs. 1.1 B Lbs. Capacity: Domestic 11.3 B 1.5 B Lbs. Imports 1.3 B Total 12.6 B Lbs Demand 13.1 B Lbs. 3.7 B Lbs. Opportunity B Lbs B Lbs. * Unique: cold rolling, finishing, HT, coating

19 AUTOMOTIVE SHEET COMMITMENTS Company Operational Capacity (Lbs.) Accum. Novelis B 0.2 B Alcoa B 0.4 B Alcoa B 0.7 B Constellium B 0.9 B Aleris B 1.4 B Constellium B 1.6 B Kobe Steel TBD 0.3 B 1.9 B Alcoa (M. M.) TBD TBD TBD Source: Pacific Coast Research

20 CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENTS

21 ADVANCED ALLOYS - TO MEET AUTOMOTIVE NEEDS Continuous Product Improvement High Strength Energy Absorption Advanced Formability Value Sustainability Graphic: Alcoa R&D

22 HIGH STRENGTH ALUMINUM GRADES High Strength Alloy/Temper Variants Applications body structure, bumper, frame rails Sheet: Variants: 6013,6022, 7021 UTS Mpa Extrusions: Variants: 6061, 6082, 7003, 7046, 7050, 7075 UTS MPa

23 ALUMINUM ENERGY ABSORPTION Crush Grade Alloy/Temper Variants Excellent energy absorption Aluminum: Highest energy absorption automotive material, pound for pound Applications body structure, bumper, frame rails, crash cans Sheet: Variants: 6022, 5454, 5754 UTS MPa Extrusions: Sheet Crush grade ~ 250 MPa Extrusions Alcoa Variants: 6005, 6061, 6082, 7003, 7046 UTS MPa Kaiser Crush grade MPa

24 ENHANCED FORMABILITY ALUMINUM ALLOYS Formability Alloy/Temper Variants Excellent: deep draw, hydroforming, hemming Applications body structure, exterior panels, door inner Sheet (exterior): Variants: 6022, 6XXX,. UTS MPa Sheet (structural) Variants: 6022, 6111, 6XXX, 5182, 5454 UTS MPa Extrusions: Variants: 6061, 6082 UTS MPa

25 CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT Stronger, Lighter, More Formable Safety/Strength Design Manufacturing Sustainabili ty Kaiser, SAPA 6xxx, 7xxx Series High-Strength (280Mpa) Constellium Crash Management Systems Constellium Surfalex HF Novelis Advanz e200 Multi-Material Joining Novelis Fusion, s200 26% reduction in energy use for primary since % reduction in carbon footprint for primary since 1995 Alcoa VersaCast Alcoa EZCast Alcoa Micromill Closed-Loop Recycling Novelis Advanz 6xHS, 7xHS, s615

26 ENVIRONMENTAL STEWARDSHIP North American (U.S. Canada) Primary Aluminum Production: -26% -45%

27 BODY SHEET GAME CHANGER - ALCOA MICRO-MILL TECHNOLOGY Alcoa Micro Mill Technology: 30 percent greater strength 40 percent greater formability 6xxx alloy Class A surface quality 5xxx and 6xxx alloys components Alcoa MicroMill Simplified auto sheet flow-path 20 minute process time Small foot-print

28 FUTURE MULTI-MATERIAL VEHICLES Cadillac Jaguar Chevrolet 2016 Cadillac CT Jaguar XF 2016 Chevrolet Malibu

29 QUESTIONS?