AUTOMOTIVE ALUMINUM GROWTH SURGE : ALUMINUM CONTENT IN NORTH AMERICAN LIGHT VEHICLES

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1 AUTOMOTIVE ALUMINUM GROWTH SURGE : ALUMINUM CONTENT IN NORTH AMERICAN LIGHT VEHICLES STUDY CONDUCTED BY

2 ALUMINUM ASSOCIATION ALUMINUM TRANSPORTATION GROUP (ATG) 2

3 PRESENTERS Doug Richman Technical Committee Chairman ATG Vice President-Engineering/Technology Kaiser Aluminum 3 Abey Abraham Project Lead & Director of Automotive and Materials Ducker Worldwide

4 AGENDA Ducker Introduction Study Methodology Findings 2020 Findings Beyond 2020 Questions 4

5 DUCKER INTRODUCTION 5

6 DUCKER PROJECT OVERVIEW 2017 Project 8 th tri-annual ATG study Team of researchers - multidisciplinary 6+ month market research Three-Pronged Approach Bottom up forecasting process Top Down analysis of independent research 6

7 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY (THREE-PRONGED APPROACH) Bottom-Up Analysis ( ) Top Down Analysis (Beyond 2020) OEMs, Tier 1 supplier interviews Future penetration: -Metals -Alternate materials Material breakdown: -Product -product form Material content: -Component -Vehicle segment -Product form EPA, NHTSA and CAR Impacts of: -Fuel prices, vehicle mix, secondary Weight savings, electrification, vehicle design, regulations, Vehicle launch cadence Result: -Three different mass reduction and timing assumptions Not an attempt to predict what each OEM will do to meet regulations 7

8 REGULATORY UNCERTAINTY: OPTIONS & IMPACTS Mass Reduction (MR)* Scenarios Current Proposed Regulation 7%** MR by 2025 Most Likely OEM Compromise 7%** MR by 2028 Market Driven Solution (no CAFE regulation) 4.5% MR by 2028 * 2015 average curb mass 3,834 Lbs.. **2016 draft Technical Assessment Report (TAR) 8

9 MASS REDUCTION MEGATRENDS (2015:2028) AUTO INDUSTRY MR: 7% - 9% by 2028* Multi-material Vehicle (MMV) Materials Advancements Steel, Aluminum, Plastics, Composites, Magnesium Consumer benefits - Lightweighting AUTOMOTIVE ALUMINUM Materials advancements strength, formability, energy absorption, Vacuum Die Castings (VDC) Micro Mill * BASED ON 2015 AVERAGE MASS OF 3835 LBS. 9

10 Pounds Saved MASS REDUCTION SCENARIOS 300 Mass Reduction Scenarios % MR % MR % MR 10

11 AUTOMOTIVE ALUMINUM: 2015 BY VEHICLE SYSTEM Aluminum: 397 PPV Closures 7% Brakes 2% Suspension 3% Steerimg 5% Heat Shields 1% Collision Mgt. Body & IP 7% 2% Cradles, Frames 2% Engine 30% Heat Transfer 9% Wheels 11% Trans, Driveline 21% 11

12 AUTOMOTIVE ALUMINUM: 2015 BY PRODUCT FORM Castings/Forgings: 70% Sheet 78 PPV 20% Castings 283 PPV 68 % Extrusions 41 PPV 10% Forgings 8 PPV 2% Aluminum: 397 PPV 12

13 FINDINGS: 2015:

14 Vehicle Weight in Pounds VEHICLE MASS REDUCTION (2015:2028) Average Vehicle Mass % % 2025/28 14

15 ALUMINUM CONTENT GROWTH (2015:2020) 14% 12% 10% 9% Aluminum Share of Curb Weight 10% 11% 13% Avg. Aluminum Content in Pounds per Vehicle % 300 6% 4% 2% % Old Updated Old2015 Updated

16 HIGH GROWTH ALUMINUM APPLICATIONS High Growth 1) Closures 2) Body-in-White 3) Shock Towers 4) Sub-frames / cradles 5) Bumpers 6) Suspension Knuckles 16

17 2020 ALUMINUM GROWTH TRENDS Sheet Body Closures 165% increase: PPV PPV Extrusions/Castings/Forgings Extruded products 35% increase: PPV PPV o Hoods: % % - Crash management: + 65% - BIW: + 100% o Doors: % % BIW components: 83% increase 2015 to 2020 Castings and Forgings: - Steering knuckle % Vacuum Die Castings: +360% increase: PPV PPV Body-in-White (BIW) & closure sheet: 1.6 billion pounds 17

18 Pounds per Vehicle ALUMINUM CONTENT BY VEHICLE SEGMENT Vehicle Segment 18

19 AUTOMOTIVE ALUMINUM CONTENT (2020) LBS. Bumper Beams & Crash Boxes 3% Closures 13% Body and IP Structures 10% All Other Components 1% Engines 24% Brakes 2% Steering Components 5% Suspensions/Cradles/ Subframes 2% Heat Shields 1% Heat Exchangers 7% Wheels 14% Transmissions & Driveline 18% 19

20 AUTOMOTIVE MATERIALS MIX SHIFT (2015:2020) 2015 CURB WEIGHT 3835 LBS 2020 CURB WEIGHT 3735 LBS Aluminum, 10% Aluminum, 13% Glass, 2% Other Materials 11% Steel Sheet, 40% Other Materials 11% Steel Sheet, 38% Glass, 2% CFRP 0% SMC/Fiber 0% Polymers, 8% Other Metals 4% Magnesium, 0% Iron Casting, 8% All Other Steel 16 % Steel: 56% CFRP 0% SMC/Fiberglas 0% Polymers 9% Other Metals 4% Magnesium 0% Iron Casting, 8% All Other Steel 15% Steel: 53% 20

21 Weight Change (Lbs.) ALUMINUM COMPONENT WEIGHT CHANGES (2015:2020) Aluminum Net Increase: 69 Lbs Closure Sheet Body Sheet Body Vacuum Die Castings Body & Bumper Extrusions Chassis & Suspension Wheels, Steering & Brakes Engine & Tramsmission

22 SOURCES OF MASS SAVINGS MATERIAL SELECTION (2015:2020) 2015: Pounds Saved Magnesium 1% CFRP <1% SMC, Polycarbonate, Fiberglass 2% Aluminum 57% Advanced Steels 40% 22

23 Net Pounds per Vehicle 55 YEARS UNINTERRUPTED ALUMINUM GROWTH N.A. Light Vehicle Aluminum Content Net Pounds per Vehicle 7% MR Scenario by Avg PPV per year Avg. + 5 PPV per year Avg. + 9 PPV per year

24 FINDINGS: BEYOND

25 7% MASS REDUCTION SCENARIOS 7% Mass Reduction Scenario (2025 or 2028): Total aluminum content: 565 PPV Aluminum share of curb mass: 16% o Nearly 25% of vehicles having partial aluminum BIW with some complete BIW Multi-Material Body Design: Significant quantities: Aluminum, AHSS/UHSS, Magnesium and some CFRP 25

26 ALUMINUM TRENDS BEYOND % Mass Reduction Closures grow to 100+ PPV Hood penetration of 90% Door penetration near 60% Aluminum BIW parts grow to 61 PPV Vacuum Die Castings are the most secure aluminum parts for BIW Aluminum, Advanced Steel, Magnesium, CFRP and Polycarbonate additions are critical 4.5% Mass Reduction Aluminum closures: 2020: 62 PPV 2025: 85 PPV Aluminum stamped BIW parts: 34 PPV Total aluminum content: 494 PPV 26

27 Pounds per Vehicle ALUMINUM BODY SHEET GROWTH (2015:2028) 180 Aluminum Sheet Growth BIW & Closure 7% Mass Reduction Net Aluminum B & C Content Millions of Pounds PPV PPV Net 6xxx HT Closure Net 5xxx NHT Closure Net 6xxx HT Body Net 5xxx NHT Body 27

28 Net Pounds per Vehicle ALUMINUM EXTRUSION GROWTH (2015:2028) BIW and CMS Extruded Shapes and Tube

29 Net Pounds per Vehicle ALUMINUM VACUUM DIE CASTINGS (2015:2028) 30 Aluminum Vacuum Die Casting Content CT6: 198 Lbs

30 AUTOMOTIVE MATERIALS CONTENT SHIFT (2015:2025[28]) 2015 CURB WEIGHT 3835 Lbs CURB WEIGHT 3554 lbs. SMC/Fiberglas 0% CFRP 0% Polymers, 8% Other Metals 4% Magnesium, 0% Other Materials 11% Glass 2% Aluminum, 10% Iron Casting, 8% All Other Steel 15% Steel Sheet, 40% GEN 3 Steel 0% CFRP SMC 0% SMC/Fiberglass 0% Other Metals 5% CFRP Epoxy 0% Polymers 10% Magnesium 1% Iron Castings 8% Glass 1% Other Materials 12% Aluminum 16% Steel Sheet 28% All Other Steel Generation 3 15% Steel Steel: 56% Steel: 47 % 4% 30

31 SOURCES OF MATERIALS RELATED MASS REDUCTION Other 3% 2020 Aluminum 57% Other 18% 2025/2028 7% MR Aluminum 51% Steel 40% Steel 31% Average Mass = 3735 Lbs. (-100 Lbs.) Average Mass = 3565 Lbs. (-270 Lbs.) * Reference: 2015 Average Mass 3865 Lbs. 31

32 7% MASS REDUCTION SCENARIO BY North American Net Aluminum Content in Light Vehicles (Net Pounds per Vehicle) CY1996 CY1999 CY2002 CY2006 CY2009 CY2012 CY2015 CY2020 CY2025 CY2028 Engines Transmissions & Driveline Wheels Heat Exchangers Heat Shields Suspensions/Cradles/Subframes Steering Components Brakes Closures Bumper Beams & Crash Boxes Body and IP Structures All Other Components 32

33 ALUMINUM: THE FASTEST GROWING AUTOMOTIVE MATERIAL GROWTH SURGE 2015:

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35 THANK YOU Please submit questions through the box that appears on your screen Full Report available for download:

36

37 SCENARIO MODELING CONSTRAINTS Weight savings from aluminum constrained to 50%. Model replacement cadence 2023 to 2026 o conducive to some dramatic changes in materials and powertrains OEM preferences recognized in study o o spot welded body structures, aluminum structural castings advanced steels for occupant compartments, steel/polymer for pickup cargo Emphasis on proven mass production technologies Advanced material technology o most 2025 technology already in OEM development (Al, Steel, Composites)

38 CONSUMERS ARE RECOGNIZING BENEFITS OF LIGHTWEIGHTING Safety Performance Fuel Economy Braking Handling Ride

39

40 ALUMINUM 2020 BY VEHICLE SEGMENT 2020 Vehicle Segment Average Aluminum Pounds and Share of 2020 Production A/B Segment Fiat 500 Ford Fiesta lb. s 3% of Production MPV Segment Honda Odyssey Chrysler Pacifica lb. s 3% of Production C Segment Ford Focus Honda Civic lb. s 15% of Production SUV Segment Chevy Suburban Jeep Grand Cherokee lb. s 41% of Production D Segment Chevy Malibu Dodge Charger MUSTANG lb. s 17% of Production VAN Segment Dodge Sprinter Ford Transit lb. s 2% of Production E Segment Daimler E Class Cadillac CT lb. s 2% of Production PUP Segment Ford F150 Toyota Tundra lb. s 17% of Production

41 STUDY FINDINGS: 2020 Aluminum content 2015 to 2020: Average Aluminum Pounds per Vehicle % Share of Curb Mass per Vehicle 10% 13% Average Curb Mass Pounds per Vehicle % of total aluminum growth driven by: closures, crash management, steering knuckles, structural vacuum die castings Aluminum content range by vehicle segment 262 PPV in the A/B segment passenger cars 550 PPV for the average pickup.

42 UNPRECEDENTED ALUMINUM GROWTH 2015: PPV (+ 12 PPV per year) B Lbs. p.a. Major growth: closures, BIW, bumpers Maintain import role: engine, wheels, heat exchanger, driveline Emerging AL technologies: materials advancements, VDC, MicroMill BY PPV ( PPV) 16% of average vehicle mass ( %) 10.8 B lbs. year - Total Auto Aluminum ( B)

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