The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends

Transcription

1 October 4 th AVICENNE ENERGY Presentation Outline The rechargeable battery market in 216 The Li-ion battery value chain xev & ESS battery market Forecasts & conclusions

2 Tons $/Wh Million Units / year Million Units/Year October 4 th, THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY DYNAMIC Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million) 3 Li-ion 2 NiMH Tons of cathode active materials Portable PC sold per Year (Million) Li-ion 195 M Tablets 165 M Portable PCs Li-ion 1865 cell price ($/Wh) 2,6, Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 217 2

3 MWh THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of industry investments 12 1 CAGR Li-ion : +25% October 4 th, (Flow battery, NAS, ) Li-ion NiMH NiCD Source: AVICENNE ENERGY,

4 MWh MWh October 4 th, THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (9% market share) (Flow battery, NAS, ) Li-ion NiMH NiCD Lead Acid Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 217 4

5 Billion US $ Billion US$ THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET BILLION US$ in 216 Pack level 1 8% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (26-216) October 4 th, (Flow battery, NAS, ) Li-ion NiMH NiCD Lead Acid OTHERS AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRIAL E-BIKES POWER TOOLS PORTABLE SLI SLI: Start light and ignition batteries for cars, truck, moto, boat etc INDUSTRIAL PORTABLE: concumer electronics (cellular, portable PCs, tablests, MOTIVE: Forklift (95%), others Camera, ), data collection & handy terminals, STATIONARY: Telecom, UPS, Energy Storage System, Medical, (Emergency Lighting, Security, Railroad Signaling,, Diesel Generator POWER Tools: power tools but also gardening tools Starting, Control & Switchgear, AUTOMOTIVE: HEV, P-HEV, EV 1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors Power electronics (DC OTHERS: Medical: wheelchairs, medical carts, medical devices (surgical power tools, mobile instrumentation (x-ray, ultrasound, EKG/ECG, large oxygen DC converters, invertors ) not included concentrators Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 217 5

6 M Wh LI-ION IN MAIN APPLICATIONS 9 MWh - 23 B$ (1) M small cells CAGR 26/ % per year in Volume Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, : < 2GWh Portable Electronics 17% Phones 17% October 4 th, Industrial, ESS Auto, E-bus China Auto, e-bus Excl. China Electronic devices Auto, E-bus Excl. China 17% Portable PC 66% 216: 9 GWh Auto, E-bus China 33% (1) Cell level : medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes Source: AVICENNE Energy 217 Electronic devices 35% Industrial, ESS 5% 1% 6

7 M$ M$ LI-ION IN MAIN APPLICATIONS +9 MWh - 23 B$ (1) M small cells CAGR 26/ % per year in Volume Cell: +17% per year in value Pack: +18% per year in value Li-ion cells M$, Worldwide, Li-ion Packs M$, Worldwide, October 4 th, Industrial, ESS Auto, E-bus China Auto, e-bus Excl. China Electronic devices : medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes Source: AVICENNE Energy 217 7

8 LI-ION BATTERY: MARKET SHARE IN 216 WORLDWIDE The worldwide Li-ion battery market Company market share in 216 in volume (small cells only) 6,4 B cells 3% 9% 24% The worldwide Li-ion battery market Company market share in 216 in value (1) Estimated at B$ 31 in 216 OTHERS 31% 8% 9% October 4 th, % 5% 9% 19% for Small cells: Chinese suppliers like Tenpower, DLG (1) LIB battery pack market Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 217 8% 7% Zhuoneng 2% Optimum 2% A123 Wanxiang 1% CALB 2% Microvast 2% COSLIGHT 1% BYD 7% YUASA 1% AESC 2% First New Energy 3% 5% 4% 4% BAK 1% 8

9 Production cost October 4 th, LIB: THE BIGGEST PART OF THE COST IS RAW MATERIALS RAW MATERIALS ACCOUNT FOR 5 TO 7% OF LIB CELLS BUSINESS RAW MATERIAL COST IMPACT DRASTICALY ON THE BATTERY MAKERS PROFIT LIB Cost structure for TESLA & 4 Ah EV pouch cell NMC 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Operating profit Proces Yield Depreciation SGA, overhead R&D Utility Labor Material Note: Average mix of cylindrical, prismatic & laminate cells Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 217 Average cost structure of Li-ion cell in 216 Overheads 3% Sales & Adm 3% R&D 6% Direct labor 4% Energy, utilities 4% Warranty 3% Depreciation 14% Margin 7% Other materials 11% Cell Process Yield, Scraps 4% Cathode cost 22% Separator 7% Anode cost 6% Electrolyte 6% 9

10 LI-ION VALUE CHAIN MARKET DEMAND CATHODE 211 OOO T in 216 Revenues: 4,75 B$ CAGR 6/16: +14% CELL MANUFACTURERS PACK MANUFACTURERS ANODE 14 T Revenues: 1,16 B$ CAGR 6/16: +13% ELECTROLYTE 13 T Revenues: 1,4 B$ CAGR 6/16 : 19% Revenues: 22,5 B$ Gross margin: <1% Revenues: 31 B$ Gross margin: <1% October 4 th, 217 SEPARATOR 1 5 M m² Revenues: 1,6 B$ CAGR 6/16 : 15% ANCILLARY Revenues: 1,5 B$ Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 217 1

11 MWh M cells/year October 4 th, LIB FORECASTS FOR PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES LIB market, MWh, by application (3C) CAGR 16-25: + 6% Other Portable Electronics Tablets Portable PCs Cellular Phones LIB market, M cells, by form factor (3C) Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses Li-P Li-ion Pr Li-ion Cyl Takeshita - March 213 (1) (1) Source: Takeshita, Battery Japan 213 BJ-3 conference Slide p 4 11

12 MWh for Auto & E-buses X-EV MARKET Why x-ev? Definition & segmentation X-EV worldwide in 216 By country By car makers CAGR :+ 17% 11 GWh 185 GWh E-buses PHEV & EV in China By battery chemistry 1 EV X-EV forecasts 8 PHEV October 4 th, AVICENNE ENERGY & other analyst forecasts Battery chemistry forecasts Battery cost forecasts X-EV battery forecasts GWh HEV 12

13 HEV sales per year Gasoline $ / Gallon Million Penetration of HEV HEV WORLDWIDE IN 216 1,8 M HEV HEV sold per year, M units, worldwide, , 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 TOYOTA OTHERS Penetration of hybrids in the global sales, % 2% 1% % Growth : +2% From 1,8 M to 1,84 M HEV JAPON USA EUROPE October 4 th, 217 1,,8,6,4,2, Gazoline price impact on HEV market in the US Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY Micro hybrid not included 13

14 P-HEV (units) P-HEV (units) PHEV SOLD WORLDWIDE October 4 th, World excl. China growth +14% Chinese Growth + 21% 3 +16% OTHERS CHINA SAIC 25 BYD OTHERS 2 AUDI PORSCHE 15 HYUNDAI VOLVO DAIMLER 1 BMW HONDA 5 MITSUBISHI VW FORD TOYOTA GM Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analysis, 217 China is leading the P-HEV market thanks to high incentives CHINA 3% 6% US 24% EUROPE 38% JAPAN 2% Europe China USA Japan 14

15 EV (units) EV (units) EV SOLD WORLDWIDE October 4 th, World excl. China growth +14% Chinese Growth + 68% % Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analysis, 217 Other China GAC DongFeng Nissan Chana JMC CHERY JAC Geely BAIC Zhidou Zotye Kandi BYD BOLLORE PSA Honda MITSUBISHI DAIMLER FIAT GM Ford KIA VW SMART BMW Toyota Renault NISSAN China is leading the EV market thanks to high incentives CHINA 55% 4% US 16% JAPAN 4% EUROPE 21% China Europe USA Japan 15

16 XEV BUSES MARKET IN CHINA October 4 th, 217 xev buses market in China: 132 xev Buses sold in EV Bus 6 PHEV Bus 4 2 Rationales The Chinese government is working on addressing environmental issues. Central and local governments are engaged in subsidy policies to promote EV/PHV/FCV as new energy vehicles. The amount of subsidy for EV/FCV with low environmental impact is set high. As the subsidy policy is announced to be carried out until 22, it is predicted that this market will be on an expansion trend centering on EV. However, due to the occurrence of the case of receiving subsidies illegally in 215, the government has begun to strictly control the production of new energy vehicles after

17 XEV BUSES MARKET IN CHINA October 4 th, 217 xev buses market in China: 112 xev Buses sold in 215 ASIASTAR 1% ANKAI 1% FOTON 3% GOLDEN DRAGON 4% OTHERS 33% DONGFENG 5% YUTONG 18% ZHONGTONG 12% BYD 5% KINGLONG 21% 132 xev Buses sold in 216 OTHERS 53% ASIASTAR 1% ANKAI 4% YUTONG 15% FOTON 3% KINGLONG 6% ZHONGTONG 12% BYD 3% DONGFENG 1% GOLDEN DRAGON 2% The new energy bus market in China is mainly made up of EV with a large amount of subsidy from the government, and there are many cases where older makers also produce PHV. As a result of the illegal receipt of subsidy occurred in 215, publication of the company name and administrative guidance (penalty) from the government were carried out. Consequently, several makers including King Long have significantly reduced their market share in 216, and old makers such as Yutong and Zhong Tong are expanding their market shares. 17

18 LITHIUM ION CELL PRODUCTION Korean companies start to move in Malaysia New production capacity in Europe and US October 4 th, 217 $ 5 Bn 35 GWh 217 USA 2% LG Johnson-Controls Enersys SAFT $ 562 M 3-5 GWh 218 $ 562 M $ 36 M 3-5 GWh 2-3 GWh EU -<1% SAFT FIAMM BOLLORE $ 6 M 1 GWh 219 $ 1 7 M (1) 25 GWh 225 China 53% BYD GP Lishen COSLIGHT ATL BAK B&K Wanxiang (A123) * 7% SAMSUNG LG Korea 17% SAMSUNG LG SK Kokam Japan 2% Panasonic Sony NEC Maxell PEVE YUASA Source: AVICENNE 217 * OTHERS: Malaysia mostly (1) Government subsidies only 18

19 $ / kwh $ / kwh October 4 th, THE LITHIUM ION BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS 3 major limiters on batteries, for the development of electric vehicle 1- SAFETY IS A SINE-QUA-NON CRITERIA 2- TIME TO MARKET The research and development in this industry is very long and time consuming. Time to market to commercialize a new material is long. Remember that the first Li-ion battery was launched by Sony in 1991 with LCO cathode, graphite, LiPF 6 electrolyte & polyolefin membrane. It was 2 years ago. LTO was invented by Matsushita in 1993 (22 years ago) Lithium iron phosphate was invented in 1995 (2 years ago). So, it takes between 1 & 2 years to commercialize a new material in the battery industry. (1) Active material only 3- BATTERY COST Average Cell price Average Pack price Cell Pack Cell Pack CellPack Pack Cost Margin Warranty Overheads Sales & Adm R&D Energy, utilities Direct labor Depreciation Scraps Separator Electrolyte Anode (1) Cathode (1) Cell Manufacturing Other Materials Separator Electrolyte Anode Cathode 19

20 Million cars % Li-ion HEV Million cars Million cars kwh / EV HEV, P-HEV, EV 225 FORECASTS HEV manufactured PHEV manufactured EV manufactured 5 1% 1,2 2, ,5 4 9% 8% 1 1, October 4 th, ,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1,5 1,1 2,1 World Excl. China 3, 3, HEV: 1kWh battery / car 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% %,8,6,4,2,35,3,8,65,5,1,8, PHEV: 12 kwh battery / car World Excl. China China 1,5 1,5,2,45,24,18 1,25,45,8,8 1, World Excl. China China

21 M Wh M $ TOTAL BATTERY DEMAND 225 FORECASTS Li-ion for EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (MWh) CAGR : +17% Li-ion for EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (M$) CAGR : +12% October 4 th, volts SLI HEV PHEV EV EV & PHEV China E-bus China volts SLI HEV PHEV EV EV & PHEV China E-bus China 21

22 M $ M $ X-EV BATTERY MARKET IN M$ Cell Level Pack Level CAGR : +12% CAGR : +11% October 4 th, volts SLI HEV PHEV EV EV & PHEV China E-bus China volts SLI HEV PHEV EV EV & PHEV China E-bus China 22

23 GWh THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET In volume (MWh) Lead Acid Batteries GWh for > US $ 33,4 Billion October 4 th, 217 (Flow battery, NAS, ) Li-ion NiMH NiCD Lead Acid % 26% 22% 79% % In volume 8% SLI Telecom UPS Industry, ESS E-bikes medical, marine, others Industrial Batteries Lead acid batteries 58 GWh for US $ 1,4 Billion Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, % % In volume Other Stationary, ESS Motive 23

24 THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET IN 216: US $ 69 BILLION October 4 th, EV, E-Bus Portable SLI ESS UPS Telecom Other Motive Forklift Power Tools E-Bikes US $ 23 Billion for other applications 1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors ) not included Lead Acid LIB ESS UPS Telecom Other Motive Forklift Power Tools Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, E-Bikes

25 TOTAL POTENTIAL MARKET (M$, PACK LEVEL 1 ) Application details US$ 22,8 Billion in 216 (1) % E-Bikes 13% Power Tools 8% ESS 13% Forklift 15% October 4 th, 217 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY 216 UPS 12% Telecom 14% Other Motive 1% Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors ) not included 2- Other App: Military, aerospace, Oil & Gas, Railways, Aviation, Utility metering, 25

26 M Wh October 4 th, LI-ION BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS From 9 GWh in 216 to 3 GWh CAGR 216/ % per year in Volume Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, : medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes Source: AVICENNE Energy 216 Industrial, ESS Auto, E-bus China Auto, e-bus Excl. China Electronic devices CAGR 15/25 (Realistic) 16% 22% 22% 17% 6% Auto, E-bus Excl. China 13% Auto, E-bus Excl. China 21% 216: 9 GWh Electronic devices 4% 225: 3 GWh Electronic devices 18% Auto, E-bus China 3% Industrial, ESS 6% 11% Auto, E-bus China 43% Industrial, ESS 7% 11% 26

27 M$ M$ October 4 th, 217 LI-ION BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS CAGR 216/ % per year in Volume Cell: +7% per year in value Pack: +8% per year in value Li-ion cells M$, Worldwide, Industrial, ESS Auto, E- bus China Auto, e- bus Excl. China Electronic devices CAGR 15/25 11% 11% 12% 8% % Li-ion Packs M$, Worldwide, : medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes Source: AVICENNE Energy

28 MWh October 4 th, TAKEAWAYS Battery Market CAGR = +6% / Li-ion>+1% Li-ion battery is driven today by Automotive & Industrial applications In 212, most of the car makers (except Toyota) switch to Liion for HEV P-HEV, EV and E-buses will be powered by Li-ion: 15 B$ market in B$ in 22 & 38 B$ in 225 with high numbers in China (216: US$ 3,6 Billion for xev and US$ 4,8 Billion for xe-buses) EV expectations attract large Chemical companies New materials are needed to meet Automotive standards HEV will account for less than 3% of the auto sales in 22 P-HEV & EV < 2% by 22 Micro-hybrid will achieve >5% in 22/25 Lead acid battery will be the first market in 225 in volume, but Li-ion market will be higher than Lead acid from 22. A very small EV market in the automotive world will represent a huge market for batteries New LIB applications: UPS, Telecom, Forklift, Medical, Residential ESS, Grid ESS: CAGR > 1% in the next 15 years Lithium battery for other application (ESS, stationary, industrial ) will reach 1 Billion $ market at the pack level in the next 5 years ESS market could be much more important if the price of LIB at the system level is under 15 $/kwh RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET WORLDWIDE GWh 325 GWh 21 GWh B$ (Pack level) 3B$ 43B$ 628 GWh 63 B$ 847GWh 94 B$ (CAGR ) : Automatic handling equipment, forklifts, back-up, UPS, Telecom, medical devices, Residential ESS, Grid ESS, 28 LIB NiMH NiCd Lead Acid > 115 B$ 2, Lead Acid (+4%) NiCd (-6%) NiMH (-7%) LIB for 3C (+%) LIB for xev (+13%) LIB for * (+12%)

29 THANK YOU AVICENNE ENERGY Phone: Mobile: October 4 th,

30 Tons % of the Global production Tons % of the Global production Tons (LCE) % of the Global production METAL NEEDS FOR RECHARGEABLE BATTERY WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY Cobalt Nickel Lithium 9 6% 16 7,% 3 8,% October 4 th, % 4% 3% 2% 1% ,% 5,% 4,% 3,% 2,% 1,% ,% 6,% 5,% 4,% 3,% 2,% 1,% Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 217 %,%,% 3